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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #4,681
  • Jul 18, 2007 1:50pm Jul 18, 2007 1:50pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Dan,

Yes, you want the nose portion to go past the low(when looking for a long), or past the previous bar(s) high(when looking for a short). The more the nose protrudes away from the previous bars the better a pinbar.

I may be missing your question if so please try me again and I will try to answer it right I promise!

Here is a chart with some pinbars and bars confused for pins
Fabulous post!

Thanks Mbq!
  • #4,682
  • Jul 18, 2007 1:54pm Jul 18, 2007 1:54pm
Ah well, I empathise with dltvn in his foetal position.....I was similarly self loathing this afternoon having broken one of my own rules, ie "do not manually close a trade.....let the trade run, if it's wrong the STOP will close it". Did I let the EURUSD run? Did I heck! Last night I set up two trades, both LONG @ 1.3825, stop 1.3770 and 1.3770, stop 1.3720.....a sort of "hedge" setup.
Well, I looked in at progress after lunch today to see on the H4 EURUSD heading south fast, it had knocked out my first trade and actioned my second which was also heading south fast........so I exited, fast................and , of course, you know what happened almost immediately, EURUSD started its climb back up to and beyond 1.3800 again!!!!!
I should not have looked at the H4 as I had set my trades from the Daily charts. I was so cross with myself (I am a relative noob, am trading live but using small spreadtrade positions...50p sterling.....so the damage is more to morale than pocket!...I also demo trade using MIG mt4 but need to do some live trades to experience the real decision making......right or wrong).

Thanks to James16 and all the regular contributors on this forum......I have learned much, just need to follow through on my own planned trades!!!!!! When emotion kicks in, easier said than done!
  • #4,683
  • Jul 18, 2007 2:03pm Jul 18, 2007 2:03pm
I was stopped out today (original entry @ 1.0530 last week) having moved stop over the intervening days to 1.0475, just above 8 ema as I thought this would be relatively safe.....I had wanted to stay live in this trade but still have difficulty with stops...still setting too close. Looking to get back in.....too slow on the reaction as I should perhaps have reentered asap after stopout????
Always learning and willing to learn more!
  • #4,684
  • Jul 18, 2007 2:20pm Jul 18, 2007 2:20pm
Quoting attictrader
Ah well, I empathise with dltvn in his foetal position.....I was similarly self loathing this afternoon having broken one of my own rules, ie "do not manually close a trade.....let the trade run, if it's wrong the STOP will close it". Did I let the EURUSD run? Did I heck! Last night I set up two trades, both LONG @ 1.3825, stop 1.3770 and 1.3770, stop 1.3720.....a sort of "hedge" setup.
Well, I looked in at progress after lunch today to see on the H4 EURUSD heading south fast, it had knocked out my first trade and actioned my second which was also heading south fast........so I exited, fast................and , of course, you know what happened almost immediately, EURUSD started its climb back up to and beyond 1.3800 again!!!!!
I should not have looked at the H4 as I had set my trades from the Daily charts. I was so cross with myself (I am a relative noob, am trading live but using small spreadtrade positions...50p sterling.....so the damage is more to morale than pocket!...I also demo trade using MIG mt4 but need to do some live trades to experience the real decision making......right or wrong).

Thanks to James16 and all the regular contributors on this forum......I have learned much, just need to follow through on my own planned trades!!!!!! When emotion kicks in, easier said than done!
Hi Attic, I am by no means the expert here but I thought I will put my 2 Cents anyway. from the info you have provided it seems to me that you have traded on the 4AM and the 8AM 4H bars and if I am not mistaken with this, I guess I wonder what made you enter with a LONG. The Euro have been going sideways for quite sometime and none of the bars provide a strong signal or any signal for this matter to get in, one way or the other. If you're using the 1H chart, you should be using a higher chart than that for the decision to get in and the 1H chart to decide where. I think that the problem is with your choice to enter more than with the manual profit taking. Just my opinion, with hope that this helps somewhat. Regards, Dan
  • #4,685
  • Jul 18, 2007 2:42pm Jul 18, 2007 2:42pm
Hi Dan,
Thanks for your response.....I agree, on reflection it was a trade that I should never have taken............more a sort of hopeful entry, rather than one resulting from a clear signal........trying to read the rhythm of the market, but need to keep a close watch for the appropriate signals before placing an order. Another lesson learnt, I hope!
Regards, Bren
  • #4,686
  • Jul 18, 2007 3:08pm Jul 18, 2007 3:08pm
Quoting attictrader
I was stopped out today (original entry @ 1.0530 last week) having moved stop over the intervening days to 1.0475, just above 8 ema as I thought this would be relatively safe.....I had wanted to stay live in this trade but still have difficulty with stops...still setting too close. Looking to get back in.....too slow on the reaction as I should perhaps have reentered asap after stopout????
Always learning and willing to learn more!

Hey attic, thought I would chime in here with some of my personal experiences. This has been a big topic lately, so your question kind of triggered a ramble.

A lot of people have trouble setting their stops and TPs. I have noticed the last few pages a lot of talk about problems in this regard. From my experience I will offer up some advice that has helped me. Instead of trying to baby each trade individually(i.e trying to move stops, or find the best TP areas, or moving down in Timeframes to finesse an exit), try just simple trailing stops on your trades(or something consistent such as TLs, and support/resistance).

I use a few methods but personally like to wait till each bar closes, to determine the next spot to trail my trade. This allows me to cut my losses and still let my profits run. The market ends my position(80%) of the time. There are a few ways to do this. For your trade here don't ever regret trailing your stop or getting stopped out if the reasons for doing so were thought out(I always tell people when they do something, ask themselves WHY? they are doing it). I found it very helpful to make decisions on ONE timeframe. If you enter on the daily, then use the daily to exit. Multiple time frames is extremely difficult with the amount of information one has to digest to make a logical decision.

I am assuming you entered on the daily pin for the usd/cad. Looking at the chart a good time to move your stops up would be on the IB(just above it- see red arrow on chart). Even if the trade bottoms out now, you still captured a decent move, and it is on to the next trade.

I think a lot of people try to finesse there trades too much. They know james will move stops up and take partial profit, but what people forget is he has been at this for 25 years. He is so in-tune with the market it is crazy(believe me it is uncanny sometimes). And he doesn't always move stops at a certain number of pips either, I hear people throw around moving stops at 20-30 pips etc. This is fine, but make sure it is because it is profitable. The problem with over finessing each trade, is people start to find every reason to move stops/ or close partial, or take profit. It is more important when learning especially to find some consistency. I made a lot more progress once I tried to follow a certain set of rules, more then just watching each trade, and getting scared out, or not holding on long enough. I have very strict entry criteria, and my exit criteria is pretty strict for the most part, leaving no surprises for me. I am not saying there aren't tons of different ways to go about this don't get me wrong.

Price action is not a full trading method by itself. It has to be molded to fit ones personality and developed into a full trading plan(of course involving proper MM). For those struggling, I highly recommend laying out some guidelines for more then just entries. This helps us react to the market, instead of being surprised by the market. Never should one wake up and be shocked at what happened. One just reacts in response. It takes a lot of the stress off. It is all about being consistent and that is where having a trading plan comes into play. This may seem redundant or even a bit vague to some, but I have found a lot more success when I established consistent trading plans. Those who can constantly finesse each trade, timing perfect exits/entries have my utmost respect and admiration. I for one can not trade consistently enough like that.

OK end of my long rant, and remember these are just MY personal experiences. Everyone trading PA will go about it in there own way developing themselves a system. I hope this wasn't too jibberish, my mind goes a lot faster then my fingers

Mike
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  • #4,687
  • Jul 18, 2007 3:19pm Jul 18, 2007 3:19pm
EUR/USD still looking interesting.

Red arrows are entry positions - white lines are my trailing stops on these three different entries.

As you can see, I am prepared to give back a lot of profit on this...
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  • #4,688
  • Jul 18, 2007 3:20pm Jul 18, 2007 3:20pm
Quoting attictrader
1. I was stopped out today

2. I had wanted to stay live in this trade but still have difficulty with stops...


3. Looking to get back in.....too slow on the reaction as I should perhaps have reentered asap after stopout????
1. The market told you something - it traded past your stop. It kicked you out, and there was a reason for it. Depending on why your stop where, you should mull this over. The placement of the stop in itself should have a good reason. Don't fret over killed stops or at least not insofar as it tempts you to anything rash. Record it, look at the chart again 2 days later and then check out whether it was a good or bad idea and why and learn from it. (ah I see Mike just beat me to this paraphrasing it. Damn! Hehehe well done)

2.+3. are red flags. DON'T chase a "lost" trade. DON'T be anxious to be in and DON'T make your stop meaningless by re-entering at the same place again, paying spread a second time and doubling your potential losses(new entry = new stop).

The last two are important to notice because I know this phenomenon all too well. It can be DECISIVE in changing your bottom line from making profit to breaking even or producing losses. Why?
Because as soon as your wanting (to be in, to stay "live") takes over above the "simply taking a VALID trade setup when and as it presents itself", then you are putting gambling above making money.

It's as simple as that.

Don't ask how I know. Okay, I admit it. I know because it's what I did/do too much

Believe me when I say this can be the decisive point for your trading.

- Patience. Discipline. Strategy. -
(speaking to myself again mostly hehe)

Take care

SeekingLight


P.S. Anyone who read Mike's post - read it again. It's really good. ;p
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #4,689
  • Jul 18, 2007 3:24pm Jul 18, 2007 3:24pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey attic, thought I would chime in here with some of my personal experiences. This has been a big topic lately, so your question kind of triggered a ramble.


Mike
Yeah. What he said.

Great post Mike. And I personally agree 100%.

Getting good at taking profits and setting stop losses is very hard. You really have to get used it and become consistent with it.
Always have a good reason for taking profit or setting/changing a stop loss.

Tom
  • #4,690
  • Jul 18, 2007 3:41pm Jul 18, 2007 3:41pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Because as soon as your wanting (to be in, to stay "live") takes over above the "simply taking a VALID trade setup when and as it presents itself", then you are putting gambling above making money.
I've had a good week, and still had to trade today (it's the old work ethic).
I convinced myself that I saw a couple of good opportunities and went in on cable & fiber.
Got out with + pips on both, but I'm giving myself a talking to right now, telling myself it wasn't clever, and I CAN'T walk on water.
  • #4,691
  • Jul 18, 2007 6:02pm Jul 18, 2007 6:02pm
http://i16.tinypic.com/61lqouu.gif
look out for this trendline bounce/piercing
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #4,692
  • Jul 18, 2007 6:12pm Jul 18, 2007 6:12pm
Quoting Mr demark
http://i16.tinypic.com/61lqouu.gif
look out for this trendline bounce/piercing
Yeh, a very interesting set up. Have you looked at the Us/Jpy ? It is also getting ready to bounce ..... soon I hope. Thanks for the alert. Dan
  • #4,693
  • Jul 18, 2007 6:25pm Jul 18, 2007 6:25pm
[quote=Mr demark;1499597]

here is the way I see the Us/Jpy, any comments will be appreciated.
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  • #4,694
  • Jul 18, 2007 8:55pm Jul 18, 2007 8:55pm
here is another longer look of the Usd/Jpy pair and it looks like something is about to happen.
A possible long retracement in the make????
I would like to hear your comments. Thanks, Dan
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  • #4,695
  • Jul 18, 2007 9:19pm Jul 18, 2007 9:19pm
Interesting comments, but I am a newbie so who knows.

By John Jagerson, 18 July 2007

Chinese GDP is due today at 10:00PM U.S. Eastern. Forex traders should be watching this event very closely. As we are all aware, the Chinese economy is growing at a break-neck pace and there are consequences for this kind of growth. These consequences are looming on the horizon and getting closer all the time. The results are likely to impact the forex and in particular the JPY.
The risk on this pair is definitely biased to the downside barring a complete surprise from the Chinese. I should note that the last GDP release did not result in a big sell-off on this pair but I think this was largely due to the fact that CPI inflation rates had just recently popped up above 3%. We have now been above 3% for a quarter and the pressure is building.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #4,696
  • Jul 18, 2007 11:56pm Jul 18, 2007 11:56pm
Quoting maestr2
Interesting comments, but I am a newbie so who knows.

By John Jagerson, 18 July 2007

Chinese GDP is due today at 10:00PM U.S. Eastern. Forex traders should be watching this event very closely. As we are all aware, the Chinese economy is growing at a break-neck pace and there are consequences for this kind of growth. These consequences are looming on the horizon and getting closer all the time. The results are likely to impact the forex and in particular the JPY.
The risk on this pair is definitely biased to the downside barring a complete surprise from the Chinese. I should note that the last GDP release did not result in a big sell-off on this pair but I think this was largely due to the fact that CPI inflation rates had just recently popped up above 3%. We have now been above 3% for a quarter and the pressure is building.
Fundamental, schmundamental. ;-) Most of us here may at least keep an eye out for news, but for the most part it's a passive interest, for me at least. For a while I was all over interest rates, gdps, etc, but after a while I realized that charts tell me all I need to know.

Besides, ten different 'expert analysts' will give you ten different scenarios about what will happen... (amazing feat, considering price can only do 3 things!)
  • #4,697
  • Jul 19, 2007 3:21am Jul 19, 2007 3:21am
I posted my perspective on what sort of fundamentals matter if at all at
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...ostcount=19547


Just wanted to throw on a daily Oil chart since I am bored to tears by this lack of commitment this morning and as Mike said there was an as nice as possible breakout of a range there.

72.65$ had another small one at the FE 161.8 as you can see...just noticed that a bit late

But I've got to stop posting DJI charts, all I try to find is tops in a several thousand point rally and all that happens each time is a 1-2 pip drop and then sharp reversal back up again
Am I glad I don't trade stocks / indices ;p

P.S. Mr Demark your charts are too big, they make it hard to scroll / read this thread. 600x600 is maximum allowed I believe, if you want to link to larger charts only post the link, not the image, that works as well please
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #4,698
  • Jul 19, 2007 7:00am Jul 19, 2007 7:00am
Quoting dltvn
here is another longer look of the Usd/Jpy pair and it looks like something is about to happen.
A possible long retracement in the make????
I would like to hear your comments. Thanks, Dan
Hey Dan,
usdjpy is running in a new channel now, here is my chart which shows how it is currently staying below a new trendline which serves as a resistance before your broken long term trendline coming in at around 123.00 or so now, lets see if it continues to hold...take care, Raz
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Never say never.
  • #4,699
  • Jul 19, 2007 7:17am Jul 19, 2007 7:17am
Quoting razldazl
Hey Dan,
usdjpy is running in a new channel now, here is my chart which shows how it is currently staying below a new trendline which serves as a resistance before your broken long term trendline coming in at around 123.00 or so now, lets see if it continues to hold...take care, Raz
Yes, I agree, I have pulled the same new (your upper one) TL but when I look at a longer period chart (like the one I posted)I feel that a monthly S/R line @121.22 could be broken and if broken, the pair will be doing a long dive.
Thanks for your comments that are as always being appreciated. Dan
  • #4,700
  • Jul 19, 2007 8:15am Jul 19, 2007 8:15am
Hi everyone,
check out this chart, nice breakout....somebody pinch me I cant be picking all these goodies can I? Well, all I can say is ITS ABOUT TIME hahaha, just kidding, take care all, Raz
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Never say never.
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