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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,781
  • Edited 3:36pm Jul 18, 2007 3:03pm | Edited 3:36pm
Hello its me again !!! yes i have nothing else to do thankyou, : !!! so here is my take on sleepy euro at the moment.
Ok price break through 21 ( down), pulled back and went through it again(up) and now coming back down to the 21. according to the rules there are 2 possible scenarios.
1) a trend continuation pattern off of 21 (up). If it does take a Trend continuation signal then there is room up there according to the recent trend line.
2) or if the price keeps going down then a lower high pattern should be seen on MACD
Please listen to wrap up on post# 5762 explaining the market motion.
Please correct me if i am missing anything to avoid any confusion.
Thanks.
P.S A tren continuation off of 8MA also a possibility???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.jpg Size: 40 KB
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  • #5,782
  • Jul 18, 2007 6:01pm Jul 18, 2007 6:01pm
Hi, Nadia! As I remember Phillip says, if price goes down thru 21, then back up thru 21 it usually tends to test 21 again and then usually goes up. That's what he said, let's see if it happens now. We have a perfect situation now to check this pattern .
  • #5,783
  • Jul 19, 2007 5:39am Jul 19, 2007 5:39am
Thanks alexfot for your reply. here is an interesting triangle on the usd/ jpy. looks like waiting for a breakout after some ping pong action between 365 and 21 MA. I dont trade this pair yet but follow palmer's post to learn since he trades this pair .(thanks palmer).
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Click to Enlarge Name: jpy.jpg Size: 55 KB
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  • #5,784
  • Jul 19, 2007 6:58am Jul 19, 2007 6:58am
Hi Nadia,

I just learn about three little sister. Is this picture can be define as three little sister formation?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy usd.jpg Size: 56 KB
  • #5,785
  • Jul 19, 2007 7:28am Jul 19, 2007 7:28am
Hi Ryurina,
i am not so sure about the formation. Still learning to spot them out. I would let the experts take over your question. Sorry could not help but dont want to give wrong info to you. Palmer, pips, Phillip---- or anyone who is familiar with this formation please help.
Thanks!!!!!.
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  • #5,786
  • Jul 19, 2007 8:46am Jul 19, 2007 8:46am
It's not a 3 sisters, it's a triangle. I think it will breakout upward, just my opinion.
  • #5,787
  • Jul 19, 2007 3:56pm Jul 19, 2007 3:56pm
Hi Ryurina , here is phillips mp3 and chart explaining 3 little sisters. Hope this Helps.
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Three little sisters.zip   770 KB | 1,386 downloads
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  • #5,788
  • Jul 19, 2007 4:07pm Jul 19, 2007 4:07pm
Hello, a few posts earlier i asked a question about 1 hour supporting 4 hour early entry. So i decided to stop being lazy and dug up phillips mp3 and pdf regarding it. Time to go back to school for me. Thought i would post it here if someone wants a refresher's course. For all the newbies please dont get confused if u dont understand the main 4 hour system. The attatchments section has all the answers. We just need to find them and refresh ourselves regularly.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 1Hour Strategy.zip   814 KB | 1,545 downloads
File Type: pdf 1 hour pdf.pdf   157 KB | 1,684 downloads
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  • #5,789
  • Jul 19, 2007 4:17pm Jul 19, 2007 4:17pm
Hi, here are rest of the files for 1 hour. again for the newcomers , please dont try to jump ahead of your self. start from the beginning.
Thanks!!!!.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 1Hour Supporting 4Hour.zip   835 KB | 1,422 downloads
File Type: pdf 1Hour Supporting 4Hour.pdf   152 KB | 1,590 downloads
File Type: zip 1Hour Strategy 1.zip   744 KB | 1,571 downloads
File Type: zip 1Hour Trendcontinue Patterns 2.zip   754 KB | 1,640 downloads
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  • #5,790
  • Jul 19, 2007 6:44pm Jul 19, 2007 6:44pm
Sorry folks, been a busy week for me here. The majors are not boding well for the 4 hour method for MACD set-ups. But, maybe that is a good thing in the long run. It teaches us patience and discipline to wait for the market to come to you and the discipline it takes to follow that lead. I think it was last week that I mentioned that the major pairs are at long term highs or significant areas of support or resistance and we may be ranging for a while. Not sure what it'll take to get things moving, but they will. I've been able to take about 70 pips out of the EUR$ this week with an alternate method so I at least got something done. Either way, hoping for some movement next week....
  • #5,791
  • Edited 9:25am Jul 20, 2007 7:54am | Edited 9:25am
Palmer... good eye....

Now, this is only 1 weeks worth of data... but I may have stumbled upon something here that works excellent with nice rising movement above the 89.... (when the 8 and 21 cross down.. it's hands off). I get the direction from the 4 hour (position according to the 89 and 21), then go to the 1 hour and play the horizontal channels.... I started doing this on the a/u (attached chart), and then noticed it on the e/u, g/u, g/j, and low and behold... noticed it this morning on the u/j and... saw pips there tooo..... (I didnt' trade the u/j because I didn't like the 4 hour... but when I went ot the 1 hour... I saw the pips)

Look at the chart... and tell me what you think... this weeks total playing 2 lots each long most of the time was a total of 682 pips

I have one trade left open on the e/u... at b/e.. but that's it. Each trade has hit my tp's.

Play the one hour channels by the attached a/u chart... go long at the bottom of the channel (established after a break above it and a pull back to the lower channel line). The channel is usually about 20+ pips tall, so when price action gets to the upper channel line... sell 1 lot and let the other lot ride for a break up... if it pulls back to the lower channel line again... go long another lot.... and look for a the same thing... according to the 4 hour direction of long... it will eventually break and form another channel..... This particular a/u chart shows 3 channels it established on the way up. Dont forget your true tp's are still based on the 4 hour.. and most of mine got hit while sleeping

So, I submit this for your review... again 1 weeks worth of data is not sufficient... but worked well for now and each pair shows it, now that I've found it.

Hope you all had a good week too!!!!!

UPDATE: Just closed e/u lot at top of channell.. had 1 lot left and it broke through my channel and took out my other tp based on 4 hour... That makes a round 700 pips for the week... and I'm out for the week! Thats' a great cabel chart Bil

Quoting Palmer
Just thinking out loud here...

The 4 hr MACD charts have been looking difficult lately. But, take a look at the 1hr charts for the majors. Look at all of the Rb's and Rt's that the 1 hr shows...

Soooo, when the 4 hr looks like it does now, might it be 'safe' to trade the 1hr signals until the 4hr gets back to 'normal'..Here's a 1hr EUR$ chart. That buy position was a post news trade so pay no attention to it. Check your charts for the 1 hr Rt's and Rb's...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a-u 1 hour.jpg Size: 72 KB
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #5,792
  • Jul 20, 2007 9:19am Jul 20, 2007 9:19am
Here is a snapshot of gbp/usd as i see it. moving within channels in a main channel. currently within 5 and 6. Still in a bullish mode , so if breaks current resistance, then more potential north. I took the TC signal today for +25 pips 1st lot, and 2nd lot set to BE which was taken out. Current resissantce at 2.0545. Lets see if Cable can push through the gates!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.jpg Size: 46 KB
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  • #5,793
  • Jul 20, 2007 12:18pm Jul 20, 2007 12:18pm
Hello Mike ,
Here is the GU chart u asked for. notice how price bounces off the 23.6 fib level. Fibs were drawn from the previous swing low to high. Ist fibs drawn from july 6 to july 11. second from july 13th to 18th. both tikmes price action was in good ryhtem. so when macd gave a TC with confirmed price motion i took it. hope this explains what u had asked me for. Good luck!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable fib.jpg Size: 71 KB
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  • #5,794
  • Jul 20, 2007 1:04pm Jul 20, 2007 1:04pm
Is there an Expert Advisor coded with "4 Hour MACD" décision chart ?

...
  • #5,795
  • Jul 20, 2007 2:30pm Jul 20, 2007 2:30pm
Hi DireXiv,
great observation, really, you're up to something veeery good.
Could you please post more charts of other pairs where you see this market rythm ? I think that's what we need to learn..
Thanks,
Endy

Quoting DireXiv
Palmer... good eye....

Now, this is only 1 weeks worth of data... but I may have stumbled upon something here that works excellent with nice rising movement above the 89.... (when the 8 and 21 cross down.. it's hands off). I get the direction from the 4 hour (position according to the 89 and 21), then go to the 1 hour and play the horizontal channels.... I started doing this on the a/u (attached chart), and then noticed it on the e/u, g/u, g/j, and low and behold... noticed it this morning on the u/j and... saw pips there tooo..... (I didnt' trade the u/j because I didn't like the 4 hour... but when I went ot the 1 hour... I saw the pips)

Look at the chart... and tell me what you think... this weeks total playing 2 lots each long most of the time was a total of 682 pips

I have one trade left open on the e/u... at b/e.. but that's it. Each trade has hit my tp's.

Play the one hour channels by the attached a/u chart... go long at the bottom of the channel (established after a break above it and a pull back to the lower channel line). The channel is usually about 20+ pips tall, so when price action gets to the upper channel line... sell 1 lot and let the other lot ride for a break up... if it pulls back to the lower channel line again... go long another lot.... and look for a the same thing... according to the 4 hour direction of long... it will eventually break and form another channel..... This particular a/u chart shows 3 channels it established on the way up. Dont forget your true tp's are still based on the 4 hour.. and most of mine got hit while sleeping

So, I submit this for your review... again 1 weeks worth of data is not sufficient... but worked well for now and each pair shows it, now that I've found it.

Hope you all had a good week too!!!!!

UPDATE: Just closed e/u lot at top of channell.. had 1 lot left and it broke through my channel and took out my other tp based on 4 hour... That makes a round 700 pips for the week... and I'm out for the week! Thats' a great cabel chart Bil
  • #5,796
  • Edited 2:32pm Jul 20, 2007 2:31pm | Edited 2:32pm
Quoting BIL2205
Hello Mike ,
Here is the GU chart u asked for. notice how price bounces off the 23.6 fib level. Fibs were drawn from the previous swing low to high. Ist fibs drawn from july 6 to july 11. second from july 13th to 18th. both tikmes price action was in good ryhtem. so when macd gave a TC with confirmed price motion i took it. hope this explains what u had asked me for. Good luck!!
Hey BIL,

I was in with you on that trade. Entered exacly where you did, because of the trendcontinuation signal of the MACD. There were some times when I thought my SL would be hit but it went OK. I have a long term trendline as resistance around 2.0568 so this was my 2nd TP for the 2nd half of my lot (first was at 2.0550 as a 'quite around number'). Both got hit with the spike upwards 1 candle ago (16:00 GMT).

The "take home" message of this for me was to trust the TC signal and your SL, do not close because of emotional reasons.

Have all a good weekend (I will surely have a hot one ).

Robert
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  • #5,797
  • Edited 9:47pm Jul 20, 2007 8:54pm | Edited 9:47pm
I sure can Endy... A/u was perfect as the chart I posted last, a couple others are kind of subjective... but the g/u was pretty good as well as the e/u... maybe that is do to their "purity"

If you look at these 3 charts ( i'm still analyzing the other pairs for sure), the main theme is that once, it breaks... a true rule I learned from phillip along the way is that once a t/l or resistance is broken, it will almost always come back and test that area for support.... It's amazing how true that is on the graphs. Not only can you use that to make a trade, but you can start to establish where a channel is by seeing that short stall out where a break/retest happened.

Perhaps the best part of what I did this week with this insight was that, you have 20-40 pips in the bank before the big move by playing the channel and waiting for the break out If the move is down against you... you are also already up 20-40 pips so you'll either come out even with it hitting your s/l or since your trading with the trend, price will come back to continue in your direction.

The charts may look a little confusing.. but if you keeping up with them every 20 minutes or so and updating you have a handle on it during the actual session.

I can't answer any more questions on this thread, but thought I'd pop back in and let everyone know this 4 hour setup is very successful by itself, or with some other little strategies combined with it... Stick with it guys.

Quoting endy
Hi DireXiv,
great observation, really, you're up to something veeery good.
Could you please post more charts of other pairs where you see this market rythm ? I think that's what we need to learn..
Thanks,
Endy
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: e-u 1 hour.jpg Size: 76 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: g-u 1 hour.jpg Size: 81 KB
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #5,798
  • Jul 21, 2007 8:19am Jul 21, 2007 8:19am
It's great to hear people being pip positive.

DireXiv: Like you said, I think the important thing here is to only trade the 1hr channel in the direction of the 4 hr trend. If the 4 hr trend is down, only sell the tops of the channel on the 1hr with a 1hr MACD Rt. The odds of being correct with the trade should be in your favor because you are going with the longer term trend = the 4hr...
  • #5,799
  • Jul 21, 2007 10:55am Jul 21, 2007 10:55am
Hi, Palmer! Very good point, to trade 1H in the direction of 4H only, this is what Phillip and you teach us, but many people keep forgetting this simple things, including myself
  • #5,800
  • Jul 21, 2007 1:07pm Jul 21, 2007 1:07pm
Dear, be kind, prompt on what page of a forum it is possible to load indicator MACD with bars of different color. Or put such indicator on this page. Thanks. Yours faithfully Victor
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