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Question for swing traders

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 6, 2024 10:41am Sep 6, 2024 10:41am
I have a question for anyone who trade in higher timeframes such as 1Hour or 4Hour timeframe, how many pips do you guys expect to win each trade? I'd like to hear your opinion. sometimes i really zoom-out on the chart and really target so far away and sometimes really close to where price is so i'm really confused in this matter.
  • #2
  • Sep 6, 2024 8:19pm Sep 6, 2024 8:19pm
Number of pips should be related to the timeframe you are trading.

I look at Monthly-Weekly-Daily. SOMETIMEs H4. I do not expect anything. I trail my SL under new weekly structure. Daily structure if I really want to lock in profits quicker (lets say im counter trend for example).
  • #3
  • Sep 8, 2024 9:18am Sep 8, 2024 9:18am
Quoting TheCardinal
Number of pips should be related to the timeframe you are trading. I look at Monthly-Weekly-Daily. SOMETIMEs H4. I do not expect anything. I trail my SL under new weekly structure. Daily structure if I really want to lock in profits quicker (lets say im counter trend for example).
well, I know number of pips are related to the timeframe that's why i literally mentioned 1H and 4H.
  • #4
  • Sep 8, 2024 1:28pm Sep 8, 2024 1:28pm
Every pair is different. No past results can predict future ones.

I've ran a lot of scenarios on EurUsd 1H timeframe. To me, 40 pip TP is a good balance between frequency and profit potential on that pair.
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  • #5
  • Sep 9, 2024 1:32am Sep 9, 2024 1:32am
Quoting Ryan420
Every pair is different. No past results can predict future ones. I've ran a lot of scenarios on EurUsd 1H timeframe. To me, 40 pip TP is a good balance between frequency and profit potential on that pair.
thanks for the reply, may i ask whats your average SL pips also? i know it really depends on each pair and its situation but id like to know the average.
  • #6
  • Sep 9, 2024 4:07am Sep 9, 2024 4:07am
Quoting Vorenzd
When your trading decisions are grounded in solid fundamentals—which determine the broader market direction anyway—you should place far less emphasis on counting pips and far more on creating trades with the potential for significant reward relative to your risk. The beauty of having the right fundamental outlook is that it allows you to let trades run. And I do mean run. A trade that can be held for a very long period (essentially "forever"), allowing profits to compound while your risk remains controlled. Now, to your question of targets. Zooming...
Hi, thank you so much for explaining it for me, the I only use i had for counting pips was only to calculate my risk and how much i need to put in for each trade, but I felt like I was going for so much more than what people traded for example in 1Hour timeframe, so I was really curious how people would think about it, feel free to check my thread and let me know how you think about my trades, I only cared about Risk/Reward ratio so far.

this is some of my trades shared in this thread

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...-rookie-trader
  • #7
  • Sep 9, 2024 5:17am Sep 9, 2024 5:17am
Quoting amiralisoley
{quote} thanks for the reply, may i ask whats your average SL pips also? i know it really depends on each pair and its situation but id like to know the average.
So R:R ratio does not really matter as they will all fall in line with their respected win/loss ratios. I entered my results of 10,000 EurUsd trades here. That being said, I found a 40 pip TP and a 50 pip SL to be one of the most efficient. That's 0.8R, but still maintains it's 54% win rate. I also found that R-multiples above 1 gave much more inconsistent results; some fit the win rate, but other times waiting for the large TP to be hit, you could have won 3 0.8R trades within that time.
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  • #8
  • Sep 9, 2024 6:00am Sep 9, 2024 6:00am
Quoting Ryan420
{quote} So R:R ratio does not really matter as they will all fall in line with their respected win/loss ratios. I entered my results of 10,000 EurUsd trades here. That being said, I found a 40 pip TP and a 50 pip SL to be one of the most efficient. That's 0.8R, but still maintains it's 54% win rate. I also found that R-multiples above 1 gave much more inconsistent results; some fit the win rate, but other times waiting for the large TP to be hit,...
that is really intresting but I'm really a trend follower and i like to win big when I'm right that's why i try to get atleast 1:3 Risk/Reward, using 1:1 or less would be more suitable for Scalpers in my humble opinion rather than Swing trading.
  • #9
  • Sep 9, 2024 6:09am Sep 9, 2024 6:09am
Quoting amiralisoley
{quote} that is really intresting but I'm really a trend follower and i like to win big when I'm right that's why i try to get atleast 1:3 Risk/Reward, using 1:1 or less would be more suitable for Scalpers in my humble opinion rather than Swing trading.
If using at least a 1:3, expect to have losing streaks of 9-12 trades and win about 25% of the time. Size accordingly.
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  • #10
  • Sep 9, 2024 10:17am Sep 9, 2024 10:17am
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote} I must say, your logic seems to be... puzzling. You mention that risk-to-reward ratios "don't really matter," but then proceed to analyze your trades based on a specific RR setup.
There is no edge in R:R. I chose 0.8R as it produced some of the most consistent profitability when ran through a Monte Carlo analysis. Higher R-multiples would either be profitable, or the losing streaks from lower win rates would crash the account. Keeping R-below 1 produces win streaks greater than losing streaks.

Quoting Vorenzd
{quote}Are you factoring in the variability of market conditions, volatility shifts, or even the inherent risk of holding for larger TP targets? Are you factoring in fundamental shifts in the market?
Nope, only historical prices from by broker. The Forex market is efficient. It has all fundamental factors priced in already.

Quoting Vorenzd
{quote}It all sounds rather... anecdotal without any rigorous metrics or backtesting data to back it up, wouldn't you agree?
I have done rigorous back testing on EurUsd 2018-2024, minimum of 10,000 trades per every R-multiple in my Win Rate thread. Those numbers are actual, not theoretical.
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  • #11
  • Sep 9, 2024 12:01pm Sep 9, 2024 12:01pm
Quoting Ryan420
{quote} There is no edge in R:R. I chose 0.8R as it produced some of the most consistent profitability when ran through a Monte Carlo analysis. Higher R-multiples would either be profitable, or the losing streaks from lower win rates would crash the account. Keeping R-below 1 produces win streaks greater than losing streaks. {quote} Nope, only historical prices from by broker. The Forex market is efficient. It has all fundamental factors priced in already. {quote} I have done rigorous back testing on EurUsd 2018-2024, minimum of 10,000 trades per...
repectfully I completely disagree with saying RR gives no edge, you cannot be serious saying Swing traders should go ahead and use 0.8R, you just cant be serious.
  • #12
  • Sep 9, 2024 12:04pm Sep 9, 2024 12:04pm
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote} Well this is a core difference of opinion we can not cross. If market's are efficient, then you're gonna be late to every position. It's all about trading information and the comprehension by an participant of said information, not prices. It's a textbook belief. This is why no market efficient theory has ever proven itself on the real markets, without adjusting the sample so it fits the theory.The assumption that every piece of information—geopolitical risks, central bank policies, macroeconomic data—is instantly digested and accurately...
I have no idea how we got here, I asked about pips cuz i have an open trade that my target is 85pips, I just wanted to know how other swing traders trade, I'm not sure how we got into all this conversation about back-testing EURO, RR etc. haha Cheers everyone
  • #13
  • Sep 9, 2024 12:08pm Sep 9, 2024 12:08pm
Quoting amiralisoley
{quote} repectfully I completely disagree with saying RR gives no edge, you cannot be serious saying Swing traders should go ahead and use 0.8R, you just cant be serious.
I'm not saying swing traders should use that R-multiple. It's a conclusion I came to in back testing EurUsd. The higher you go away from 1-R, the more inconsistent the results become. Particularly losing streaks will increase exponentially. Most traders will not be able to handle the drawdown from a 10 trade losing streak. If you trade a 1:3 (25% win) your counterpart is trading a 3:1 (75% win).
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  • #14
  • Sep 9, 2024 12:12pm Sep 9, 2024 12:12pm
Quoting amiralisoley
{quote} I have no idea how we got here, I asked about pips cuz i have an open trade that my target is 85pips, I just wanted to know how other swing traders trade, I'm not sure how we got into all this conversation about back-testing EURO, RR etc. haha Cheers everyone
Oh, then target the most pips cuz that's best.
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  • #15
  • Sep 9, 2024 12:51pm Sep 9, 2024 12:51pm
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote}It all sounds rather... anecdotal without any rigorous metrics or backtesting data to back it up
I've provided all metrics, years of backtesting, data, and an acct trading on the exact premise tagged in my signature.

Do you have any quantitative results to your "homo oeconomicus" taking advantage of market inefficiencies or is it just rambling?
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  • #16
  • Sep 9, 2024 1:58pm Sep 9, 2024 1:58pm
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote} I can see you did not understand a word I wrote, this probably stems from a lack of economic knowledge. Let me make this simple for you, though I highly doubt it will help. Homo oeconomicus doesn't exist. Do you even understand what the term means? It's the idea of a perfectly rational market participant who acts solely to maximize utility. If you think the market is efficient and haven't grasped why homo oeconomicus is a fantasy, we really have nothing to discuss. The efficient market has never been proven by anyone, at the other side inefficiency...
A lot of words, zero results. The reason why you don't have any proof. Typical FF troll.
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  • #17
  • Sep 9, 2024 2:21pm Sep 9, 2024 2:21pm
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote} Margaritas ante porcos. Look it up if you're as clueless about ancient languages as you are about the markets. When faced with actual economic theory and real-world evidence, your response is: "a lot of words." No surprise there. It must be difficult for someone pushing demo accounts to grasp anything beyond superficial numbers on a screen. You want proof? Look no further than the entire industry of professional traders, funds, banks etc... making money off inefficiencies. But please, continue to dismiss reality as "a lot of words." It's...
No one is going to Google your stupid languages. You have no proof, no results of anything. You are a little troll just regurgitating junk you've read online, playing with fonts. If you knew what an inefficiency was, you would have proof of exploiting it with a track record.

When someone asks a question, don't recommend them a 1:5 RR. That just exposed you for what kind of a troll you are. Stay on the sidelines, bud.
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  • #18
  • Sep 9, 2024 3:28pm Sep 9, 2024 3:28pm
Quoting Ryan420
{quote} I'm not saying swing traders should use that R-multiple. It's a conclusion I came to in back testing EurUsd. The higher you go away from 1-R, the more inconsistent the results become. Particularly losing streaks will increase exponentially. Most traders will not be able to handle the drawdown from a 10 trade losing streak. If you trade a 1:3 (25% win) your counterpart is trading a 3:1 (75% win).
well did u always trade with the trend while backtesting? That might increase from 25% for 1:3, anyway thank u for your reply, cheers
  • #19
  • Last Post: Sep 9, 2024 5:26pm Sep 9, 2024 5:26pm
Quoting amiralisoley
{quote} well did u always trade with the trend while backtesting? That might increase from 25% for 1:3, anyway thank u for your reply, cheers
Both buys & sells were used, often at same time. No way to trade a trend as those are unpredictable when they will start or end.
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