MA Crossover System that works for me

I am using a new variation of the EMA crossover approach that seems to be working nicely. It's still early days, so time will tell. I will post some trades as they happen to show what I mean.

This variation uses just 2 EMAs (I'm currently using 10 and 24 EMA) and 4 time-frames - monthly, weekly and daily (for trend) and H4 for entries. I wait until the EMAs are all aligned (EMAs all crossed up or all down) and ideally with clean space between the EMAs on all four TFs with the candles above/below them. The alignment across four TFs gives me a high degree of confidence that the trade will at least break even on H4, and more likely, go on to make decent profit most times.

I enter when price is close to the 10 EMA, or is a trigger candle (see previous post). The stop goes beyond the latest swing point, and I move it to break-even around 60 pips. Then I let the trade run until a candle closes in the wrong direction inside the EMAs. That's one way of managing the trade, but it's up to you - many people prefer different approaches to managing a trade.

Dear AlistairC,

Thank you for starting this thread and keeping it clean, free of indicators and other speculation.

I already trade in a similar way, only MA's, based on pullbacks, but on 1h TF (to my surprise quite successfully).

However, I'm looking for something "slower" and that's why I was drawn to this topic.

I've just read all the posts from cover to cover so I'm really glad you wrote something just today after a few months of inactivity.

I plan to start trading with the original strategy, using the 8, 21 and 100 EMAs, aligning with higher TFs.

I look forward to your new insights that you announced in your last message.

vmd

Thanks for your interest and support, vmd. You want slower - this is the strategy for you!! Waiting for the 3 higher time frames (HTFs) all to align and then for H4 to line up ready for a trade can take an age. I haven't been using this approach for long enough but I am interested to see if a whole lot of currency pairs all come into alignment at the same time. In the meantime I am finding this to be a far calmer way of trading. But then when a good trade does come up it's important to get into it and stay with it for as long as possible.

AUDCAD might be ready for a trade in the next 24 hours. The three HTFs are all showing UP and H4 might join them. Then I need to make a call on whether there is a valid trade waiting or not. But when the force is with you ...

We got a brief attempt at a breakout but price dropped back into the channel of the "flag and pole" pattern. Still waiting.

Is anyone still trading using this system as outline in the first few pages of this thread? How is it going? Would love to revive this thread again.

Hi bongopapi, I'm still using much the same system with a couple of tweaks and one major change.

The tweaks: I have changed the 100 EMA to 55 because the 8/21/55 group behave as a group, not two for short-term and another one for long-term. I also use the OGT trend indicator strictly (it's available on Forex Factory). It is set on 55, 21 and 6 (not 8 just so i get the "all-green" or "all-red" a bit quicker, hopefully before price has broken out and taken off. I do inspect the D1 and W1 charts directly before taking the OGT indicator's word for it. The "Safety Rules" I have posted several times on this thread are still totally applicable.

The major change is to do with a psychological issue - I hate closing a trade at a loss and have found myself deleting the stop-loss "hoping" that price might come back. I mean, surely with 3 timeframes all aligned, price MUST continue in that direction, right? Mostly it does, and that reinforces the bad practice, but all it takes is two or three trades over the weeks and months to keep going the wrong way and then I am facing a massive loss and that's a disaster. So I have placed an expert adviser stop-loss on a VPS where it's kind of out of sight, and that has helped me a lot. It tracks the 21 EMA and the moment price closes the wrong side of that, it closes the trade. In fact, the EA is called "Wrong side"! The nice thing about it is that if price comes back from the wrong side during that same H4 session, the trade is not closed and lives to fight anther day (or 4 hours at least).

Look at the chart I posted. It was just the one that happened to be open when I decided to reply to you. No cherry-picking at all.

1. I trade only in the direction of the trend suggested by the OGT indicator.
2. I try to get into the trade close to a "pinch" where the three EMAs are close together, as shown by the yellow boxes, but ...
3. I try to wait until the EMAs have started spreading away from the pinch, which indicates a trend forming. Ideally the price bars should be above/below the 8 EMA, like washing hanging off a washing line. If price is jumbled up with the EMAs it's a no go.
4. Then I wait either until the EA closes the trade, or if price has already moved significantly into profit and then collapses back, I will place a manual stop at break-even. No loss, more fish in the sea, no problem. Sometimes there is an obvious swing point where I might place a TP. This is often more profitable than the EA can achieve.

I think that's about it.

Here's a trade I placed yesterday. The "pinch" is identified in the yellow box. Note that the price bars moved above all of the EMAs during that pinch phase and there was a bunch of them that went nowhere - a consolidation phase. That's a big clue that an explosive move is on its way. I placed a buy stop entry above them and waited. I went quite optimistic with my TP (228 pips), knowing that if price doesn't get there, the dynamic / moving stop-loss on my VPS that tracks the 21 EMA will catch up at some stage and close the trade for some profit. If I'm lucky, a large profit, if not, a small profit. But at this stage any kind of loss is very unlikely.

Hello

Anyone was able to create a smart Elliott wave pine script on tradingview, i keep getting error, even with the help of the AI !!!

Thank you

GBPUSD H4

AUDJPY, AUDCAD H4

Hi Pusztafie, thanks for your posts. Could you perhaps explain your trades, or describe what you look for to place trades?

I just stumbled upon your template and looked at what you've changed recently. I looked at the OGT and looked for pullbacks. I've already given up on this strategy. It's too slow for my taste, I like the spin, so I prefer the 5M gold. Regardless, if I get a chance, I'll open trades with your method again.