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  • #18,221
  • Aug 25, 2024 2:12pm Aug 25, 2024 2:12pm
For tomorrow I like situation on silver, BB shows up like pinbar, BOSS also up after 22 reversal and worker now shows 22 reversal after shadow and BOSS reversal was tested
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  • #18,222
  • Aug 30, 2024 9:19am Aug 30, 2024 9:19am
Terry,

Thanks in advance for taking sometime in answering my question, still trying to cement my understanding of MTF analysis.
Posted a series of three images here..

So this is an old chart, last candle on each image is obviously what we are assessing.

"Big Boss"
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"Boss"

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"Worker / Entry"

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This would be a set-up I normally would really like to see, BB is showing some significant downward price action, the Boss is corresponding to that downward move and our Worker / Daily shows what I assess as a good opportunity to enter.

Also, I believe I read from one of your old posts that occasionally you will enter on a 4hr chart, when utlizing this TF, do you typically then use Weekly as BB, Daily as Boss and then 4hr as entry?

Thanks for any insights, am I assessing this correctly?
  • #18,223
  • Aug 30, 2024 12:39pm Aug 30, 2024 12:39pm
Quoting northernpips
Terry, Thanks in advance for taking sometime in answering my question, still trying to cement my understanding of MTF analysis. Posted a series of three images here.. So this is an old chart, last candle on each image is obviously what we are assessing. "Big Boss" {image} "Boss" {image} "Worker / Entry" {image} This would be a set-up I normally would really like to see, BB is showing some significant downward price action, the Boss is corresponding to that downward move and our Worker / Daily shows what I assess as a good opportunity to enter. Also,...
Everything is correct. What is missing is SR from past PA on the left to asses if there is room to move or not
You can use any timeframe as long as you understand the power of higher frames. You are not limited to only 3. But you can not really count on m5 going in the direction of the monthly for example. Monthly/4H are still relevant to each other if barely so

PS notice that after a big move on the monthly the direction is still the same on the daily and weekly
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On a strong move, any entry close to the shadow is great. You dont necessarily need to wait for a perfect PA (but it sure pays out if you wait until you spot one)
So how did PA develop (popcorn)
One last thing I forgot. On Both monthly and weekly I assume the shadow shows an uptrend, so you need to keep this in mind as well ( here the power of higher frames comes into play)
  • #18,224
  • Edited 5:14pm Aug 30, 2024 4:48pm | Edited 5:14pm
Quoting bistolis
{quote} Everything is correct. What is missing is SR from past PA on the left to asses if there is room to move or not You can use any timeframe as long as you understand the power of higher frames. You are not limited to only 3. But you can not really count on m5 going in the direction of the monthly for example. Monthly/4H are still relevant to each other if barely so PS notice that after a big move on the monthly the direction is still the same on the daily and weekly {image} On a strong move, any entry close to the shadow is great. You dont...
Bist,

Thanks for taking the time to reply.. I know from reading the forum you were crushing the smaller TFs too (for the first images, price moved lower and you could have closed for a 1:2 winner).

If you don't mind me picking your brain a little further, is it mandatory that the shadow of all three be in confluence with each other? Like in this case we have clear downtrends in Monthly & Weekly, but you are correct the shadow is still technically green or bullish on the Higher Timeframes.

Just making sure I am not taking any short cuts, my understanding from reading the forum is that when the worker (daily) gives decent PA that is with the trend (colour) of weekly and month, you can jump in..

While I am posting... one more series for criticism (old chart)

Monthly
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Weekly
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Daily (worker)
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For clarity, the last candle in each image would be the candles we are using for our assessment.
This would be a go for me.
  • #18,225
  • Aug 30, 2024 5:52pm Aug 30, 2024 5:52pm
Quoting northernpips
{quote} Bist, Thanks for taking the time to reply.. I know from reading the forum you were crushing the smaller TFs too (for the first images, price moved lower and you could have closed for a 1:2 winner). If you don't mind me picking your brain a little further, is it mandatory that the shadow of all three be in confluence with each other? Like in this case we have clear downtrends in Monthly & Weekly, but you are correct the shadow is still technically green or bullish on the Higher Timeframes. Just making sure I am not taking any short cuts,...
PA is in a weird spot on this. I would pass for something better.
if everything is aligned you get some monster moves
when it keeps going up then everything is in alignment
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  • #18,226
  • Aug 30, 2024 6:40pm Aug 30, 2024 6:40pm
Quoting bistolis
{quote} PA is in a weird spot on this. I would pass for something better. if everything is aligned you get some monster moves when it keeps going up then everything is in alignment {image} {image}
One more...

Weekly
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Blue arrow shows where on Weekly our Worker entry would have been

Worker
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Blue arrow shows entry -- Price breaking out of support... I didn't post big boss but it was also displaying a "red shadow" and moving downward.
  • #18,227
  • Aug 31, 2024 5:34am Aug 31, 2024 5:34am
Quoting northernpips
{quote} One more... Weekly {image} Blue arrow shows where on Weekly our Worker entry would have been Worker {image} Blue arrow shows entry -- Price breaking out of support... I didn't post big boss but it was also displaying a "red shadow" and moving downward.
You are getting it
Now you need to forward test and get experience doing it over and over
  • #18,228
  • Aug 31, 2024 8:27am Aug 31, 2024 8:27am
Quoting bistolis
{quote} You are getting it Now you need to forward test and get experience doing it over and over
Bist,

Thanks again for taking a look, going to post some live charts in the coming days and would appreciate your feedback and of course anyone else if they wish to chime in.

Trading intraday isn’t going to happen due to my schedule, but I am curious, how do you like it?
Are you trading exclusively intraday now or are you doing a combo of intraday and some
higher TF stuff?

Just interested in how you’re finding it.
  • #18,229
  • Aug 31, 2024 11:54am Aug 31, 2024 11:54am
Quoting northernpips
{quote} Bist, Thanks again for taking a look, going to post some live charts in the coming days and would appreciate your feedback and of course anyone else if they wish to chime in. Trading intraday isn’t going to happen due to my schedule, but I am curious, how do you like it? Are you trading exclusively intraday now or are you doing a combo of intraday and some higher TF stuff? Just interested in how you’re finding it.
I trade intraday during the NY session on m1/m5
It is ok but very energy consuming
  • #18,230
  • Edited Sep 1, 2024 1:21am Aug 31, 2024 9:55pm | Edited Sep 1, 2024 1:21am
part 1/2

Hello Friends

The recent discussions around the higher time frames & the beginning of a new month has encouraged me to share my thoughts and what I would like to see eventuate in the index future markets for the month of September

First of all, when I say "Index Futures" I am referring specifically to the ES and NQ CME contracts which are positively correlated 96% of the time. Intermarket correlation insights can be found here

Here is the monthly chart of the 2 x contracts as at Sept 1st, 2024

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It doesn't take Dr Joe (a rocket scientist) to suggest that we are bullish. however, lets dig a little bit deeper and read the price action candle by candle

April, both pairs create the middle candle of a 3-bar swing low formation

June, both pairs "displace" higher, out of a small consolidation, printing a new all time high

July, ES closes "UP" and confirms a bullish imbalance. (July's low "gapped" up from May's high, due to an imbalance of buy orders) as shown by the open portion between the two green lines. These imbalances give us a clue that deep pockets are participating. NQ closes "DOWN". This is a "crack" in two highly corelated assets and gives us a clue that a retracement could be under way...

August, Both assets make a deep retracement. NQ makes a lower low, however ES fails to do so... another "crack" in correlation and a clue that these markets are still very much under accumulation. The rapid retracement (aka manipulation) lower, shown by the wicks serves two purposes

1. Spook out longs
2. Entice new shorts to chase the move lower

This is perfect ^ for large volume traders (smart money) who need large sums of counter party, to pair longs

On August 5th, the big big boss (my wife), who knows nothing (or even cares) about the markets, warned me that "the stock market was crashing". (God bless her!) The very same day NQ happened to dip below (and reject) a level where long term bullish trend traders are likely trailing stops

General public sentiment which opposes a trade thesis + a crack in correlation + discounted liquidity, at a higher time frame key level is some very nice confluence!

ES is clearly the upside leader here. Therefore any longs I take will probably be in that market whilst NQ will be favored for shorts

With this analysis, in part 2 ill discuss just HOW I plan to trade September, WHAT ill be looking for and WHEN ill be looking for it

TBC...
  • #18,231
  • Sep 1, 2024 7:26am Sep 1, 2024 7:26am
Quoting p1pThief
part 1/2 Hello Friends The recent discussions around the higher time frames & the beginning of a new month has encouraged me to share my thoughts and what I would like to see eventuate in the index future markets for the month of September First of all, when I say "Index Futures" I am referring specifically to the ES and NQ CME contracts which are positively correlated 96% of the time. Intermarket correlation insights can be found here Here is the monthly chart of the 2 x contracts as at Sept...
Your analogy about the current ebbs and flows of these two markets and the involvement of “smart money” is interesting.

It’s fascinating how market sentiment, as even expressed by your “big big boss,” can sometimes align with technical signals.

Looking forward to part 2.
  • #18,232
  • Sep 1, 2024 7:27am Sep 1, 2024 7:27am
Quoting northernpips
Terry, Thanks in advance for taking sometime in answering my question, still trying to cement my understanding of MTF analysis. Posted a series of three images here.. So this is an old chart, last candle on each image is obviously what we are assessing. "Big Boss" {image} "Boss" {image} "Worker / Entry" {image} This would be a set-up I normally would really like to see, BB is showing some significant downward price action, the Boss is corresponding to that downward move and our Worker / Daily shows what I assess as a good opportunity to enter. Also,...
You seem to have the hang of it, however in this case a significant part of the downward move has already taken place so one should be looking for entry long before this.
One thing to do is highlight the WCC at the top of your weekly chart and follow that.
Also look at that huge shooting star on the weekly at the top.
Signals on the higher time frames are much stronger than on the lower time frames.


Regards
Terry
  • #18,233
  • Sep 1, 2024 7:42am Sep 1, 2024 7:42am
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} You seem to have the hang of it, however in this case a significant part of the downward move has already taken place so one should be looking for entry long before this. One thing to do is highlight the WCC at the top of your weekly chart and follow that. Also look at that huge shooting star on the weekly at the top. Signals on the higher time frames are much stronger than on the lower time frames. Regards Terry
Terry appreciate the feedback.

One more question for you about how to develop exceptions for higher time frames? Specifically, I’m curious about cases like the GBP/CAD trade, where the setup looked great! but the monthly time frame was still bearish. I’d love to hear your thoughts on how to navigate those situations, because I loved that set-up too but would have been struggling with the monthly still being bearish.

Thanks again for the insights
  • #18,234
  • Edited 5:03pm Sep 1, 2024 4:25pm | Edited 5:03pm
Quoting northernpips
{quote} Terry appreciate the feedback. One more question for you about how to develop exceptions for higher time frames? Specifically, I’m curious about cases like the GBP/CAD trade, where the setup looked great! but the monthly time frame was still bearish. I’d love to hear your thoughts on how to navigate those situations, because I loved that set-up too but would have been struggling with the monthly still being bearish. Thanks again for the insights
Best way is probably to draw what we see in this case using control candles:
When we see large candles in any time frame, there is the potential for a control candle to be in force and from my perspective the color of the control candle signifies the direction. In this case the BB control is green so bullish.
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  • #18,235
  • Sep 2, 2024 4:54am Sep 2, 2024 4:54am
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} Best way is probably to draw what we see in this case using control candles: When we see large candles in any time frame, there is the potential for a control candle to be in force and from my perspective the color of the control candle signifies the direction. In this case the BB control is green so bullish. {image} {image} {image}
Makes total sense sir.

While I have some experienced eyeballs on the forum, thought I would ask for some advice on taking profits.

Using that GBP/CAD trade as an example, do you consider looking at Support & Resistance levels as an exit point? In this case, it would have yielded over a 1:2 trade, It might be difficult to answer definitively, but do you typically aim for an average take profit that exceeds 1:2?
  • #18,236
  • Edited 2:10am Sep 3, 2024 1:13am | Edited 2:10am
part 2/2

Scenario 1/3 - This is my favored scenario for September.

Ill pre-empt by saying that unfortunately, as we all know... the market does not care what we, as traders want and we have to be very careful falling in love with a bias, and marrying a narrative as it can make you do silly things! to get around this we can use time, price and a narrative to create mile markets along the way that either validate or invalidate the thesis

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So - if I'm bullish on the monthly, Id expect it to expand higher... What would that look like at the end of the month ?

A bullish up-close candle with ideally a small wick below the open and a small wick above the close (see diagram above ^)

If you go back and have a look at all the bullish up close candles you will see that most of them will have a small wick below the open price, and a small wick above the close, this insight can help us tremendously to predict when and where turning points "should" occur if this scenario is to play out ...

Therefore, our first mile marker for scenario #1 is the lower wick, it must be shallow and it must occur in either week 1 or early during week 2

As a smart money trader, ideally during bullish expansions we want to position ourselves below the open price, inside the wick. Conversely, we want to unload our positions in the upper wick to less informed speculators, profiting on the displacement made in the printing of the body

Now, if we split the monthly candle into 4 x weekly candles we can build a narrative as to how each week "should" print within the month...

Week 1

It would be fair to say that in order to create a low below the open price, week 1 could be bearish. In fact, this is what we want to see... a drop below the open price (but not to low ) .

A run higher, straight out the gates on week 1, without putting in any low first would be another invalidation for this scenario.

A text book week 1 would be a drop below the open, lethargic side ways price action ( smart money building a book ), then a run on the lows of the range creating the low of the month

Week 2

Bullish expansion week, basically a fractal version of the same scenario. ie Monday / Tuesday: range, stop hunt, low of week, small wick, Thurs / Friday high of week etc.

note: If price is yet to trade through the monthly open, we want displacement through it (yellow box), and then for it to provide support

Week 3

repeat of week 2

Week 4

reverse the logic of week 1

Final thoughts. We can also use the economic calendar as a tool to help validate the thesis. Generally speaking, the five largest volatility drivers are...

- NFP
- CPI
- FOMC
- PPI
- PCE

I do not care what the numbers are (good or bad) but I expect volatility and therefore these reports "should" create either turning points or large displacement (see diagram ^) we can use the calendar as our road map for the month.

Interesting how we had a bank holiday on Monday and Friday we have NFP right ?

I have 3 of these scenarios, I can share the other two if anyone is interested, they are all fractal

for example, I am an intraday trader, I try to catch daily expansions buying the low / high of the day in either London open or equities open with the goal of catching the daily range, selling at around 3.30 pm EST with an intraday sized stop loss and when I'm lucky additional pyramid entries

Ill leave it here with a quote by the man himself

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  • #18,237
  • Sep 5, 2024 7:09pm Sep 5, 2024 7:09pm
Just checking in...

So near support and resistance little turbulence on the left on the daily, both weekly and monthly bombing down, decent PA looking symbol here on daily chart...
this chart is a few days old, cool to enter even when there is some initial turbulence, but lots of room on Weekly for price to move lower and is in conjunction with the last couple of month move?

Big Boss
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Boss


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Worker
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For clarity, that BEEB on the worker is what I am interested in... too aggressive here?
  • #18,238
  • Sep 6, 2024 5:46am Sep 6, 2024 5:46am
Quoting northernpips
Just checking in... So near support and resistance little turbulence on the left on the daily, both weekly and monthly bombing down, decent PA looking symbol here on daily chart... this chart is a few days old, cool to enter even when there is some initial turbulence, but lots of room on Weekly for price to move lower and is in conjunction with the last couple of month move? Big Boss {image} Boss {image} Worker {image} For clarity, that BEEB on the worker is what I am interested in... too aggressive here?
Weird spot again for me
  • #18,239
  • Edited 12:10pm Sep 6, 2024 9:05am | Edited 12:10pm
Quoting northernpips
Just checking in... So near support and resistance little turbulence on the left on the daily, both weekly and monthly bombing down, decent PA looking symbol here on daily chart... this chart is a few days old, cool to enter even when there is some initial turbulence, but lots of room on Weekly for price to move lower and is in conjunction with the last couple of month move? Big Boss {image} Boss {image} Worker {image} For clarity, that BEEB on the worker is what I am interested in... too aggressive here?
Not sure what pair this is but looks like NZDJPY:
Good long opportunity on Boss retrace recently, price hit right on TP target (top of WCC) for just over 250 pips.
So now this BEEB that formed at the TP target has stopped at the top of the Boss hammer and bottom of BB control candle.
So for me this BEEB just signifies the end of a good long trade.
Even though I had no interest in shorting the BEEB on this Friday, if one were so inclined there was a good short opportunity after yesterday's close:
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  • #18,240
  • Sep 6, 2024 12:21pm Sep 6, 2024 12:21pm
Another way to look at the NZDJPY using line chart:
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