Mental9ty Trading Journal

Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 29 July 2024
Next week We close the month of July and begin August and it's going to be a super packed week with crucial economic data that will likely impact currency markets. The most important events will be the interest rate decisions from the BOJ, BOE, the US Fed, as well as inflation data from the EU, Australia, and Switzerland. The most important thing to look out for will be the conferences after the release, so investors will be watching these central banks for clues about their future direction of monetary policy. We also still have busiest earnings data coming out of U.S. tech giants when markets are already nervous over the current sell off.
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Sharing some results from last week's Yen pair calls - Nice day trade short on GBPJPY. You might even see where I thought I was wrong, but actually re-entered at the same price, giving me +174 pips
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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 05 Aug 2024
We have a quieter news week with the main event being ISM Services PMI - We do have commodity news too.

JPY following its confirmed intervention now continues its bullish momentum after the BOJ raised interest rates as the Japanese markets see an unwinding of the carry trade. We didn't see DXY get strong or cable & fibre going south, in fact we got the opposite while news outlets are hinting a recession fears being the cause.

My overall view is that the market is broadly experiencing profit taking, corrections, seasonality movements which is normal for this time of year especially following earnings season. As August is typically risk off, with summer holidays, low volume can be expected which could mean large swings.

Anyone else noticed Warren Buffet dumping his stock?
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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 12 Aug 2024
Next week is set to be a busy period with some key economic indicators and policy announcements planned. US inflation, UK GDP and retail, NZD interest rate and AUD employment data.

After the market decline at the start of the week, the charts look to me to be corrective. So although most markets have recovered and are near recovery, traders are nervously waiting to see if there will be a bull trap which will pull the market down for a second dip. One investment firm said the “U.S. markets are seeing a “bull trap squeeze”, where there’s a lot of leveraged, bullish views on the back of a consensus soft landing view, which ultimately is now make or break.”

I think this is the week we will find out which way the market will go. I also think there will be a soft landing but the effects of that may start to show in September. Quick money might want to look for shorts, but longer term I would be waiting for all the bears to exit to consider longs..



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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 19 Aug 2024
The big economic news next week won't be about regular economic reports, but about a meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole. Jerome Powell, will give a speech that everyone I'm sure will be watching. He's expected to say that it's okay for people to expect lower interest rates soon.
While this can be welcomed news, there are still some geopolitical risks and issues on the horizon which I’ll talk about later.


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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 02 Sep 2024
We start this week at the beginning of a new month with some things to be aware of in the long term. The Fed fiscal year comes to a close this month so I am expecting some dollar repatriation. On the investment front, we could see some quarter end rebalancing. We’ll also have quadruple witching on the 20th so expect some high volatility. As I mention in the seasonality section DXY is typically strong and can be seen as risk off - Don't forget to look out for EoM profit taking. This week however, eyes will be on the key news events that could determine what kind or size of rate cut we can expect from the US Fed. NFP will be on friday after we’ve had some key PMI readings.

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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 09 Sep 2024
The major stock markets dropped sharply on Friday after the NFP jobs report highlighted problems in the labor market. This raised more questions about how much the Fed will cut interest rates when it begins doing so. This week, eyes will be on the inflation reports which will influence how the Fed will act at next week’s FOMC rate decision. I think we may see some volatility in the market, but ultimately risk off.

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