4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

Hi smikester!!

hmmmm...what do I think ...I think that different indicators give different signals b/c they are predicated on different parameters. Become comfortable with the indicators that you use and have tested (& I know for sure this is something you have already done b/c you are a skilled trader ). Stick to the tools you've tested and don't mix signals to justify trade based on different systems. Personally, I don't use RSI, I stick to the MACD and Stochs (just my preference).

Have you established your short already? I don't think a short is a bad idea (I took a "short-term" short yesterday for 20 pips), just haven't gotten the signal I want to see from 4 hour chart quite yet (even though it is close). As long as this candle doesn't close above 2.0308 and MACD continuing down, it may be possible. My 1 hour chart is showing me that price wants to keep moving upwards (get a better price for shorting?)....I'd rather establish a short w/failure of the 2.0363 range w/a really tight stop. The stop for shorting now would have to be above that level, and is a bit too risky for my trading. I also hate that it is Friday! (Have you noticed lately how all the good moves are starting on Friday?). I'm flat for now...

Hope you are doing fantastic!!! I still try to keep my focus on the HD we talked about! Ggeezzz ....But, you did help me sooooo much in keeping it (my mind pattern)right (I think)...I've been thinking of it like a wind up toy to release momentum...like a rubberband twisting....K...off subject...

Don't know if I answered your post correctly...think you were just asking me about divergences on other indicators....and I went overboard....

Talk to you later, Smikester! Have a great trading day!!!

Pips

What is TP if I get buy signal and all MAs are below current prize, like right now on cable?

How do you determine SL for buy position if current low is lower than low of previous candles?

Hiya radyfox!

Great question! Everyone has their own perfered method to determine, and you should test to see what works best for you. To give you a few ideas of how it is done: some of us will use Resistance Lines, Trendlines, and/or Fib projections. Additionally, if you have positions that were established early, you may want to trail your stop on open lots in order to give yorself the opportunity of catching additional breakouts in Cable (above the 2.0365 level to possibly 2.0450) while protecting profit.

The stop is another important issue. I am very focused on this topic (which is evident in other posts ). It is very important to place your stop below support line. If moving average is closeby but below the area, you should place below b/c price tends to travel back to the MA's. Again, the best way to see what works best for your style of trading is to test on historical data. But, I am a big disbeliever in fixed stops (i.e. 20 pips from entry), and think it is extremely important to take technical factors into consideration when figuring out the level. (and sometims, the last candle low is not an appropriate stop, as it is above support line and close to MA). Just some food for thought. If the stop is to big, wait for a retracement in price before entering the trade.

Hope your trading is going well!

Pips

Hi,

I´ve been studying phillip´s system for about a month now and it has been very helpful although still not going live on my trades.
I just want to know if it´s possible to be added to the skype chat, my skype id is: franciscojosearagon
at what time does this chat takes place?

Thanks a lot

Oscillators are also good tools for detecting divergences. Don't ever trade a divergence solely b/c it is present (always wait for confirmation that the turn is occurring....divergence can last a very long time

Pips[/quote]

Hi Pips, just wanted to welcome you back from your dirt dealings or whatever it were that you were doing. Thank you for these great contributions, i learn so much from you. 88 pips this week using your trade plan form. With divergence, have you seen whether is the MACD direction (angle) a better predictor of where its going to go , or is the candles? or is it just that you know somethings going to move? Thanks Pips!

Hi Pips, just wanted to welcome you back from your dirt dealings or whatever it were that you were doing. Thank you for these great contributions, i learn so much from you. 88 pips this week using your trade plan form. With divergence, have you seen whether is the MACD direction (angle) a better predictor of where its going to go , or is the candles? or is it just that you know somethings going to move? Thanks Pips![/quote]

Hi O'Zeeke!

...That's me after reading your post!! I am so glad that the plannig sheet is helpful to you & helped you nab some pips this week (thank you for sharing that; it really makes me very very happy!!! You've seen how good your skills have become and that is so AWESOME!). Not 100% sure if I'm done playing in the dirt yet...depends on the fire dept. Hopefully, they'll deem me in compliance! If not, back I go!! (I actually like working in the yard, even if my thumb isn't very green).

Now, back to business....you know from previous posts my esp powers suck! So, unfortunately, I don't know something is going to move. I use a combination of things w/divergent set-ups. #1 is support/resistance. I like to see price hit the area a few times w/out piercing it. #2 is candles. 3 or 4 or more little candles bouncing around s/r (especially that IT pattern makes it very tempting for me to trade). Many times, I've noticed a variant of triple top or bottom forming at the level w/dojis and stars (then I salivate like Tito waiting for a treat). #3 (but very high on my set-up importance) is the MACD sloping in the opposite direction of the candles highs/lows (especially at an extreme level). The divergence I'm looking at are the recent bars, from the most recent turn (I like it best). Also, you've noticed that I draw lines on my MACD. I've noticed that the lines are excellent areas to trade from. When in an uptrend, when price is divergent and the bar closes below my indicator line, I enter (usually with an entry order for a price around the IT low w/stop above the resistance.) Opposite for a long trade. later today,I'll post a couple of examples of this set-up for you to see.

Sorry this post is so lengthy. Hope I was able to clearly explain how I like to trade divergence from the 4 hour. I do want to be clear, that I do not trade divergence based only on that. If the price is divergent, I wait for confirmation that the turn has occurred or the indicator probably won't give me a TC. So far it has worked pretty well.

Talk to you later,
Pips

I'm going to regret posting an example (hard to see the divergence b/c I have to compress somewhat for posting)...But this was my favorite trade!

The purple line is the Divergence between peaks -- tip off # 1

The Red line is Current Divergence on MACD -- tip off #2

Candles having problems w/previous IT -- tip off # 3

Emotional candles -- tip off #4



I removed this line b/c I thought it would only confuse....but I had a line drawn from histogram uptrend that showed price was below where it should be and it was OK to short about 5 bars previously (I didn't take it, just kept an eye out).

The blue arrow w/sell is where I entered on candle close.

Result:

Hi Donna,
thankyou for your kind words, You really inspire me and many others here and help us learn and see things on a chart that i had no clue existed. Also Thankyou for inspiring me to come up with my trade plan checklist. I hope u did not mind me posting it here. I made it quite clear that it should not be compared to your's because u are too good, .
Thanks and good luck.
Nadia,

P.S have u heard from IRA.

You are very welcome. But, you do realize it is all you, right? & I am very pleased that you posted your checklist here!!! That's what this forum is all about....supporting each other and helping one another take the steps to become a better trader (& nonsense about the too good part of your post!).

I think IRA is on vacation....She was going to go away when it stopped raining in her region. Hope she is enjoying her time away w/family!

Have a great weekend! (I was trying to post an MP3 of a great motivational song by the 5 stairsteps....but, I can't get it to upload . If anyone can find O-h-h child by the 5 stairsteps, and feels frustrated....have a quick listen...& you'll hear them tell you, "things are going to get easier!"

Talk to you later,

Pips

You are right Nadia!

Pips and so many others here teach me more and more every day with yours very good and helpful posts.
Every day I am improving my skills in Forex trading. And thank you Donna for inspire us.
And sure, thanks to Nadia, Palmer, Philip and all people that make this post better and better...

And yes, there are much things that only a woman eye can see.

Thanks all and sorry for my english

Samuel

Hi Palmer-
Would you mind listing the MAs you have on the chart you posted July 2nd? I was comparing to my own and some didn't line up with what I've been using. Just curious is all. Thanks. - G7

It seems cable made a triangle, does any one see it?

Hi Ryurina, could u please post a chart of cable with a triangle, because i dont seem to see it. !!! Thanks.

BIL2205,

I believe this may be the triangle........

Gee Seven:

The moving average between the 8 and 21 is a 14ema. I use that as a 'get ready' moving average or a floating profit objective. Although the targets are 8/21/89...I use the 14 as a conservative profit objective because sometimes price doesn't want to go exactly to the 21....

Hi, Palmer! I still remember that chart too, and was thinking that was 13EMA, and did not know the purpose of it, now I know. Thank you.

Thanks Nipper,

yeah...that's the triangle...

Wonder what would happen next, will wait the breakout and the macd signal...

Hi Everybody

Can anybody explain how to determine target and stop? I understand this whole system but little confused about target and stop.

Thanks

Hello everyone.
Today is a true test of patience. Atleast for newbies like me. Euro and cable both moving within a tight range. Euro unable to break the previous high of 1.3813, by touching 1.3803 and cable briefly crossing the 2.0400 mark by touching 2.04002 and then retracing back to 2.0380's to currently at 2.0366.
All this action shows that something is cooking and there is a lot of emotional built up. .There is a lot of speculation that cable is due for a correction. but then agian who knew it would reach the 2.0300 mark. so i guess for now i sit back and wait for a high probability trade. or make some more analysis and figure out how to position my self for a break out.

I just wanted to ask something about the rules . i know i should know them by heart by now. but i still read them over and over again to refresh my memory.
IF price breaks through 21, up or or down,then,(down in case of euro and cable currently)
1)it might come back to test it again and then move away. accompanied by an appropriate macd signal it would be a high probabilty trade
2)or it can break through the 21 and go straight to 89. then come back and test 21, and then move away. in this case accompanied with a TC signal , it would be a high probability trade.

To filter a false break out price has to break a support or resistance. come to to test it again and if still moves in the direction of the break out then it is most probably valid. Like is GU today. Price seemd to have break out, but retraced quickly. and now ranging. in this case if we get a bounce off 21 that would be a good long signal since we are in bullish mode.

MAKE SENSE ????

Does Euro seem to be waiting for cable to make up its mind so it can follow it. what do u guys think. Hope i have't confused u. putting my thought and analysis here help me learn.
Thanks.