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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #4,541
  • Jul 13, 2007 1:42am Jul 13, 2007 1:42am
[quote=Trader_V;1493368]Raz ,

Am I ever glad I am not the only one who saw this one.

Hi Steve,
well mine wasnt on eurjpy it was gbpjpy, so good luck onthat one it looks like it could be a nice one. The gbpjpy has not been triggered yet, looks like strong rsistance
take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #4,542
  • Jul 13, 2007 2:59am Jul 13, 2007 2:59am
Also still holding position from 1.0530 as I hope to be able to stay with the main trend a lot further.....expected a smallish bull candle today after the fall yesterday but would expect the bears to return soon and make an assault on the long term support line around 1.0430......any thoughts?
  • #4,543
  • Jul 13, 2007 3:12am Jul 13, 2007 3:12am
Quoting drtduarte
Well after a good down trade, it's time to move up, we might have a small pin bar closing formation...

And if we think that USD is undervalued, tomorrow it could be a good day for USD.

Anyone looking at this trade?
It looks like if you took this trade you may be up 5 or 10 pips after the spread, so good job if you did.

But I'd never take this trade in a gajillion years. The trend is straight down. You say that "it's time to move up" .... well, the market hasn't thought so for a few months now on this pair, so I'm not going to try and convince them just yet :-) Lots of people, including myself recently, said when the pair was at 1.10, ridiculous stuff like "it's got nowhere to go"... heck, price in currency pairs is just a ratio, remember that. If this thing hits 1.00, I'm still shorting... < 1.00 is no different than > 1.00 when it comes to FX. If you do happen to get a few pips on this trade, consider it luck, take your profit, and get out!
  • #4,544
  • Jul 13, 2007 3:21am Jul 13, 2007 3:21am
Quoting drtduarte
Well after a good down trade, it's time to move up, we might have a small pin bar closing formation...

And if we think that USD is undervalued, tomorrow it could be a good day for USD.

Anyone looking at this trade?

Don't think in terms of over-/undervalued.

And I'm going to go out on a limb here since I haven't researched this and this is just a rough guess, but Pins on 4h shouldn't be smaller than 30% of the daily ATR of a pair, else where is the "strength" supposed to come from if the market can't even stem more than a third of the usual range?

Pins under say 30 pips are extremely risky stuff on almost any pair, hence everyone always mentioning long noses

These figures are all a bit off the top of my head, but my point is that 10 pips are not worth being called a bar of any kind

Just be careful that you aren't seeing things only because you WANT to see them there if you know what I mean =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #4,545
  • Jul 13, 2007 3:29am Jul 13, 2007 3:29am
Hello there,

Thank you for your comments.

I was stopped at 1.48 and it went down only up to 1.475 too bad.

But I have learned the lesson, I knew that this was not a strong pin bar, but I wanted to enter on some trade

I'll follow your advices.

Thank you
  • #4,546
  • Jul 13, 2007 3:40am Jul 13, 2007 3:40am
Quoting drtduarte
knew that this was not a strong pin bar, but I wanted to enter on some trade

This is the number one reason people lose money in forex and I think I can include myself in that statement. I've had so many trades I ended up wondering "why the heck did I just take that trade?" and had to confess to myself that I just wanted "to be in".
DON'T DO THIS!

It is the single most surefire way of losing money fast. The trick is, and I just posted this elsewhere as well, to wait until the time is right and then making that one trade that matters.

Not the trading makes you the money, it's the waiting that does.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #4,547
  • Jul 13, 2007 3:49am Jul 13, 2007 3:49am
The results of my second month of trading daily PINs are in.

This month, I identified 37 daily PINs, that would have produced +598 pips to first target & 402 pips on trailing stop (with 4 trades still open, this might improve slightly). That gives a monthly return of 6.5 times the risk per trade on a completely mechanical / rules based trading approach.

The first set of results were exceptional, and I think this months results are probably more representative. This month, there were 10 losing trades that were stopped out before hitting the first target, and fewer trades that ran on for many days.

I changed my strategy this month, and tried to select the best PINs to trade. Unfortunately, my method of selection didn’t work well. The 11 PINs that I didn’t trade performed better than the ones that I did take - Murphy’s law strikes again!

I am convinced that my overall strategy is right (and is supported by the stats that I have collected), I just need to improve on my PIN selection.

For the next month, I plan to start trading the PINs in my real account, but with reduced size. We will see how that goes.

And for anyone not yet convinced of the merits of trading daily PINs, take a look at this daily chart of GBPUSD (and guess which PINs I didn’t take):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD PINS.jpg Size: 32 KB
  • #4,548
  • Jul 13, 2007 4:02am Jul 13, 2007 4:02am
Quoting charlies
guess which PINs I didn’t take:
You didn't take "PIN at 50% retrace, in direction of long term trend"

  • #4,549
  • Jul 13, 2007 4:02am Jul 13, 2007 4:02am
Quoting SeekingLight
This is the number one reason people lose money in forex and I think I can include myself in that statement. I've had so many trades I ended up wondering "why the heck did I just take that trade?" and had to confess to myself that I just wanted "to be in".
DON'T DO THIS!

It is the single most surefire way of losing money fast. The trick is, and I just posted this elsewhere as well, to wait until the time is right and then making that one trade that matters.

Not the trading makes you the money, it's the waiting that does.
Why is it that nearly every time I read one of your posts I say to myself.."I was going to say that.."
It must be a measure of how I've developed when I no longer say the same things as you've pointed out there.
I passed up on so many good (in hindsight) trades this week simply because I already had a pile running from before my holiday. I've learned the lessons of jumping in after a break without taking time out to get back into the rhythm of the charts.
  • #4,550
  • Jul 13, 2007 4:30am Jul 13, 2007 4:30am
Quoting attictrader
Hi all,
Thanks to James and all the positive contributors to this forum......I've been reading since February..... such a lot to learn, and I hope I have learnt at least some of it!

So, I have taken the first step and opened a trade on my first pinbar.....I placed a limit order short last night at 1.0530, ie several pips plus spread below the base of the pin.....my stop I placed at the 50% fib level @1.0578. No PT as I would like to let this run a while with a trailing stop.....
now I need to walk away and let it be as I have had a tendency to panic and grab profits, move stops too soon while on the other hand letting losses run....not a good idea!
Yes i played this,still in,so the s/l is above a daily support @1.0621,P.A without support or confluance is rubbish,exit stratergy is per mbqb 11,but i did eat a bit at the low and fib confluance,were she is now...so now im @ B.E,eaten some and 50 on the table.But its all about support and risistance for P.A in and and P.A out,with confluance and as jim says your unstoppable,,,,,goood luck
  • #4,551
  • Jul 13, 2007 4:32am Jul 13, 2007 4:32am
Quoting drtduarte
You didn't take "PIN at 50% retrace, in direction of long term trend"

You are right - I didn't take the one at the bottom because I didn't see it at the time. Even worse, I also chose not to take the 2nd long because I thought at the time that it was 'too close to resistance at 2.000' & 'couldn't go much higher'

Anyway, the important thing is to learn from my mistakes ....
  • #4,552
  • Jul 13, 2007 6:01am Jul 13, 2007 6:01am
Good morning Guys,
I have entered this morning a short position on the Usd/Jpy and wanted to see if anybody is trading it the same way. My entry ( see yellow arrow at the chart ) was prompted by the touching of the 61.8% retracing line off the down move from 7/9 to 7/10. and forming a PB at the 00:00 hr.
  • #4,553
  • Jul 13, 2007 6:26am Jul 13, 2007 6:26am
Sorry, I seem to have a problem in downloading my screen shot and moving it to this forum. I am working on it but for the moment not sure what causes a statement of " invalid file " . This statement is coming at the time when I try to " upload " the Jpg2 into this space.
  • #4,554
  • Jul 13, 2007 6:43am Jul 13, 2007 6:43am
Quoting SeekingLight
This is the number one reason people lose money in forex and I think I can include myself in that statement. I've had so many trades I ended up wondering "why the heck did I just take that trade?" and had to confess to myself that I just wanted "to be in".
DON'T DO THIS!

It is the single most surefire way of losing money fast. The trick is, and I just posted this elsewhere as well, to wait until the time is right and then making that one trade that matters.

Not the trading makes you the money, it's the waiting that does.
Wise words mate

By the way, how are you old mucker? Had a good week?

Catch you soon no doubt

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #4,555
  • Jul 13, 2007 6:50am Jul 13, 2007 6:50am
Good morning Guys,
I have entered this morning a short position on the Usd/Jpy and wanted to see if anybody is trading it the same way. My entry ( see yellow arrow at the chart ) was prompted by the touching of the 61.8% retracing line off the down move from 7/9 to 7/10. and forming a PB at the 00:00 hr.


There appears to be a PB forming on the 4Hr OO.O8 hour. If it forms I will go long. We will have to wait and see what happens. Good trading Ray
  • #4,556
  • Jul 13, 2007 7:00am Jul 13, 2007 7:00am
Quoting 1234
Good morning Guys,
I have entered this morning a short position on the Usd/Jpy and wanted to see if anybody is trading it the same way. My entry ( see yellow arrow at the chart ) was prompted by the touching of the 61.8% retracing line off the down move from 7/9 to 7/10. and forming a PB at the 00:00 hr.


There appears to be a PB forming on the 4Hr OO.O8 hour. If it forms I will go long. We will have to wait and see what happens. Good trading Ray
Hi 1234
It does look like a new PB is forming and if that is the case I will have to reverse my position too but in the same talken, it could be just another bar on the way down and in the direction of the long trend. Thanks for your response, Dan
  • #4,557
  • Jul 13, 2007 7:46am Jul 13, 2007 7:46am
Quoting dltvn
Sorry, I seem to have a problem in downloading my screen shot and moving it to this forum. I am working on it but for the moment not sure what causes a statement of " invalid file " . This statement is coming at the time when I try to " upload " the Jpg2 into this space.
Not sure if Jpg2 are accepted format ?????
When you save from Metatrader it is in gif format. Try changing formats.
Stay Lucky.
  • #4,558
  • Jul 13, 2007 7:59am Jul 13, 2007 7:59am
Quoting mimas
Not sure if Jpg2 are accepted format ?????
When you save from Metatrader it is in gif format. Try changing formats.
Stay Lucky.
Thanks Mimas, I'll do that and let see if this is where the problem lies.
Thanks for the suggestion. How is your trade today and what are you trading? Dan
  • #4,559
  • Jul 13, 2007 8:05am Jul 13, 2007 8:05am
Sorry Guys, just experimenting with my screenshots. Thanks, Dan
  • #4,560
  • Jul 13, 2007 8:07am Jul 13, 2007 8:07am
Quoting dltvn
Sorry Guys, just experimenting with my screenshots. Thanks, Dan
another try.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot - 7_13_2007 , 8_02_55 AM.jpg Size: 92 KB
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