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vsa with Malcolm

  • #36,261
  • Jul 6, 2024 4:24am Jul 6, 2024 4:24am
A pure sine wave is not drawn even on the older timeframes.
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  • #36,262
  • Jul 16, 2024 2:53pm Jul 16, 2024 2:53pm
man this thread is going to die soo hard when I eventually retreat into my trading spider den and cut all ties with the rest of the world... like most traders do.

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  • #36,263
  • Jul 17, 2024 2:30pm Jul 17, 2024 2:30pm
Knocked out 30 more trades of backtesting and still hovering around breakeven. I grabbed the charts of a handful of my losers and attached them.

Curious if I can get some feedback on potential ways that I'm missing the forest for the trees w/ these stop outs... Any obvious repeatable mistakes or rules you have that would've kept you out of these trades?
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  • #36,264
  • Jul 17, 2024 4:16pm Jul 17, 2024 4:16pm
Quoting Macallik
Knocked out 30 more trades of backtesting and still hovering around breakeven. I grabbed the charts of a handful of my losers and attached them. Curious if I can get some feedback on potential ways that I'm missing the forest for the trees w/ these stop outs... Any obvious repeatable mistakes or rules you have that would've kept you out of these trades? {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Examples 1 and 2 should be traded as strength. Wide spread up bar marking price up with price continuing to push higher than the high of the WRB is strength. Wait for price to stall at the mid point, you might miss the bus if price tests the high of the WRB high then continues up.

Example 3 is weakness, weak close off the highs plus you can see the up move already in place behind the bar. It makes sense to see selling here.

Example 4 buy as pricw tests the mid point of the shake out on the lows.

Fuck example 5, is there weakness on the highs or strength as price dipped after the weakness on the high? I don't know, I wouldn't trade that.

Example 6 you shoulda been long when price tested the mid point of the high volume down bar.

Also remember you need to play with stop loss placement and rr on your trades, at the very min run a 2 :1 RR. It forgives a lot of mistakes.
  • #36,265
  • Jul 18, 2024 5:29am Jul 18, 2024 5:29am
Something else you can play with is wait for the bounce at the mid point and then buy as price breaks out of the high.

The down side to this is it's harder to BE.. Youll be vulnerable if price decides to retest the high or even the mid point.
  • #36,266
  • Jul 18, 2024 7:27pm Jul 18, 2024 7:27pm
Attachment g

1 climatic action, bar closes in the middle on high volume
2 as price rises volume drops off
3 blue bars price closing high, low volume = no buying or no demand for higher prices.
4 key reversal bar high top tale, closing lower than the previous 4 bars (and some)
5 another very high volume bar, look at the next bar, if they were interested in higher prices why has the next bar made no progress? (Closed in the middle)
6 blue bar again low volume no interest in higher prices or no demand.
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  • #36,267
  • Jul 18, 2024 8:33pm Jul 18, 2024 8:33pm
Quoting bandler
4761954 1 climatic action, bar closes in the middle on high volume 2 as price rises volume drops off 3 blue bars price closing high, low volume = no buying or no demand for higher prices. 4 key reversal bar high top tale, closing lower than the previous 4 bars (and some) 5 another very high volume bar, look at the next bar, if they were interested in higher prices why has the next bar made no progress? (Closed in the middle) 6 blue bar again low volume no interest in higher prices or no demand. {image}
Not thrilled about EA shorts, but maybe it will work.

Daily has been making HH/HLs since that low on July 11th. Also AU on July 16th there was a wide spread down bar that yesterday price was finally able to break down and through, weak AU means strong EA.
  • #36,268
  • Jul 18, 2024 11:43pm Jul 18, 2024 11:43pm
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Examples 1 and 2 should be traded as strength. Wide spread up bar marking price up with price continuing to push higher than the high of the WRB is strength. Wait for price to stall at the mid point, you might miss the bus if price tests the high of the WRB high then continues up. Example 3 is weakness, weak close off the highs plus you can see the up move already in place behind the bar. It makes sense to see selling here. Example 4 buy as pricw tests the mid point of the shake out on the lows. Fuck example 5, is there weakness on the highs...
Thanks for this! I'm going to go over the trades again more extensively w/ your notes as reference points.
  • #36,269
  • Jul 22, 2024 8:12pm Jul 22, 2024 8:12pm
Nice little win on NU.

Yesterday on Daily, big drop off on volume as price fell.. could be losing steam.
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  • #36,270
  • Jul 23, 2024 3:17pm Jul 23, 2024 3:17pm
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Curious how others would classify the most recent Daily bar on the S&P 500? Here's the two scenarios that come to mind for me:

  1. A part of me frames it as a no-supply down-bar that suggests bullishness.
  2. Things feel a bit more mixed when I take the rest of the chart in context: No Demand at the all-time highs last week led to a selloff -> EvR two days ago showing potential accumulation which is confirmed w/ the next bar up (2-Bar Reversal vibes) -> a rejection at the axis line showing higher prices seem less likely for the time being. Since there's accumulation at the lows, the path of least resistance is still higher but might need to test lower to confirm supply has been absorbed.

  • #36,271
  • Jul 23, 2024 4:23pm Jul 23, 2024 4:23pm
Quoting Macallik
{image} Curious how others would classify the most recent Daily bar on the S&P 500? Here's the two scenarios that come to mind for me: A part of me frames it as a no-supply down-bar that suggests bullishness. Things feel a bit more mixed when I take the rest of the chart in context: No Demand at the all-time highs last week led to a selloff -> EvR two days ago showing potential accumulation which is confirmed w/ the next bar up (2-Bar Reversal vibes) -> a rejection at the axis line showing higher prices seem less likely for the time being. Since...
I hate that type of bar on daily, I've seen webinars where Tom has called that weakness and other times he called it strength.

Context wise nasty 2 bar reversal on weekly and price has remained above the close of the down bar.. So still looking for only longs.

With that in mind, as long as price stays above that daily close then look for longs. If price falls below the close I'd look for something else to trade.
  • #36,272
  • Jul 23, 2024 7:25pm Jul 23, 2024 7:25pm
Quoting Anotan
{quote} I hate that type of bar on daily, I've seen webinars where Tom has called that weakness and other times he called it strength.
Glad I'm not the only one that gets head-faked by this type of bar explanations of the bar. I took some notes on the bar-type a few months back but never fleshed out when to go w/ it vs against it.
Quoting Anotan
{quote}Context wise nasty 2 bar reversal on weekly and price has remained above the close of the down bar.. So still looking for only longs. With that in mind, as long as price stays above that daily close then look for longs. If price falls below the close I'd look for something else to trade.
Ok cool. I think that I'm in-line w/ the general background perspective you are saying here: bulls are still in control ATM, so longs if price holds or step aside if there's a deeper retracement
  • #36,273
  • Jul 23, 2024 9:16pm Jul 23, 2024 9:16pm
Heres an AU daily chart.

Look at the last 2 days, you see how price is dropping on low volume? Especially July 22nd, widespread down bar and a big drop in volume.. but price keep pushing lower. What do we do?

Nothing, you don't want to be short here, price falling on low volume shows a lack of professional interest. Also we have a solid down trend in play, we've been making LHs/LLs since that July 17th inside bar. For now we wait for price to stall and break the downtrend trend with either a HH or an inside bar.

Also it helps to understand what you're trading which just takes time. In forex, commodity pairs especially AUD and CAD like to trend more than other pairs and you will blow your account if you try to trade yourself out of a bad position.
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  • #36,274
  • Jul 24, 2024 8:51pm Jul 24, 2024 8:51pm
Pure luck on the entry..

But just following the Daily trend of LHs/LLs after a ND.
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  • #36,275
  • Jul 24, 2024 9:10pm Jul 24, 2024 9:10pm
I think I missed the bus on the GU short.

Daily we see a SoW on the top, big increase in volume someone was active up there which resulted in price coming off. Ideally should have been short after that ND, which was also an inside bar. That inside bar shows a stall in the trend, I've recently started looking for that stall in trend to enter trades. (I mean, the knowledge has always been here in this thread that you look for ND that make a HH or are inside bars. But I guess Im just starting to really understand the logic behind it.)

But today with Biden's speech doesn't look like we will see a pull back to short.
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  • #36,276
  • Jul 25, 2024 10:04am Jul 25, 2024 10:04am
UJ closed out just because it met my RR goal. Didn't expect price to regain the 200 pips it initially dropped on.

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Bored and scalping EU.

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  • #36,277
  • Jul 25, 2024 5:02pm Jul 25, 2024 5:02pm
Hello everyone, long time lurker here.

So I've been trading Forex for some years now, but without much success. I started before the Pandemic and had some success in the beginning but as quickly it came it went away even faster.

Ever since I've been trying to dig myself out of the hole but to no avail.

Since the pandemic, I feel the market is a lot more tame and the volatility is missing. The daily ranges are a lot smaller as compared to pre-2020. I have made only a handful of trades per year since then, and I close those out almost always at BE. The main issue is that I just can't seem to find trades, or better to say entries. I always traded intraday, Looking at the H1 and then trying to join in on the dominant trend. I find that I can determine the direction on the H1 just fine, but I just can never find the right moment to join in. I wait patiently for the market to start turning, it then suddenly goes in the opposite direction (shakeout), and then violently proceeds in the planned direction.

I've read through all the recommended literature (Master the Markets, Wycoff's original publications), HiddenGap's posts, and this thread, and basically all of them wait for a successful test or a no demand to signal that the opposite side is exhausted and then enter. I understand the theory behind it, but I have a very hard time actually recognizing the bars representing said behavior. I also understand that the examples provided for learning are chosen for their simplicity in order to explain the principles behind it more easily.

I guess my question is, how do you manage to recognize entries using VSA.

P.S.
Sorry for the long read
  • #36,278
  • Jul 25, 2024 6:13pm Jul 25, 2024 6:13pm
Quoting KingofRats
Hello everyone, long time lurker here. So I've been trading Forex for some years now, but without much success. I started before the Pandemic and had some success in the beginning but as quickly it came it went away even faster. Ever since I've been trying to dig myself out of the hole but to no avail. Since the pandemic, I feel the market is a lot more tame and the volatility is missing. The daily ranges are a lot smaller as compared to pre-2020. I have made only a handful of trades per year since then, and I close those out almost always at BE....
Let's first talk about volatility, out of all the markets forex has the least. There are times where it spikes and you'll see a few days of 100+ pips, but most days expect 40-75 pips depending on on the pair.

The pandemic was an exception and we saw 6 months of 200 pips days. I remember EurAud had a few 1000 pip days. But if you want consistant volatility, then look at futures.

Second let's talk about trade location, keep it simple you're looking for tests back into areas of high volume. Think double tops/bottoms or ABC patterns. (side note it doesnt always have to be high volume, if price reverses on no demand it can come back and retest that no demand which is where you enter. Look at the UJ short I posted yesterday).

Third break evens happen. If you find you take a lot of them then take a partial as price goes your way set your stop to BE. I tend to take off 1/2 at 1:1rr and run the other half to either 2:1 or 3:1rr, depending on whats going on. I.E. S/R and or PA.

Also even if youre intraday watch daily charts. Look at UJ daily, see how the past few days have been making LHs/LLs? Seeing that, how inclined are you to look for buys intraday?
  • #36,279
  • Jul 25, 2024 10:10pm Jul 25, 2024 10:10pm
Quoting KingofRats
Hello everyone, long time lurker here. So I've been trading Forex for some years now, but without much success. I started before the Pandemic and had some success in the beginning but as quickly it came it went away even faster. Ever since I've been trying to dig myself out of the hole but to no avail. Since the pandemic, I feel the market is a lot more tame and the volatility is missing. The daily ranges are a lot smaller as compared to pre-2020. I have made only a handful of trades per year since then, and I close those out almost always at BE....
Thanks for finally stepping out of the shadows and hope you post more in the thread
  • #36,280
  • Jul 25, 2024 11:31pm Jul 25, 2024 11:31pm
Quoting KingofRats
Hello everyone, long time lurker here. So I've been trading Forex for some years now, but without much success. I started before the Pandemic and had some success in the beginning but as quickly it came it went away even faster. Ever since I've been trying to dig myself out of the hole but to no avail. Since the pandemic, I feel the market is a lot more tame and the volatility is missing. The daily ranges are a lot smaller as compared to pre-2020. I have made only a handful of trades per year since then, and I close those out almost always at BE....
Hi KingofRats

The real issue with trading with VSA or any other real volume base strategy is they are at best only offer a low trading edge.
This is because patterns in volume related strategies only repeat if the same traders participate again in the same exact way.
Of course this can’t happen again, therefore the edge VSA offers is a low probability edge and it’s the traders real skill that makes a difference and therefore the real trading edge.
Setups by themselves are not enough.
95% of traders lose whether they are price action traders or VSA traders - therefore you need something else than just s stupid setup that worked on Friday afternoon last week.
There is a fix for this and it’s the ability to enter a trade and let it run and run.
Try this as an exercise which is close to my Volume trading strategy anyway so here is a fix.
As I am mainly a Futures trader (was a VSA trader back around 2010) specialised in trading Delta imbalances, I realised after working with a few hundred other Volume traders over many years - price action trumps volume signals ALWAYS.

Stick a 20 MA Volume based moving average on a chart and open a trade on any strong volume signal that moves hard through this area. Just stay in till it crosses back and look to add to your position if a pullback opportunity arises.
Only enter on a strong cross - and you can now call yourself a profitable VSA trader or any other bloody name that comes to mine.
Its the sitting that makes the money, not the setup selection
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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