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Attachments: A Tasty Standard - 45 DTE SPX Iron Condors
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A Tasty Standard - 45 DTE SPX Iron Condors

  • #141
  • May 16, 2024 8:08am May 16, 2024 8:08am
tough to trade these things in a one-way market, not the best choice. But, I have been here before. Looking at SPX ATR to pull back towards 40 going into June, a relatively slack week ahead of the holiday, low vol is what I need now with 36dte, would like to stay static for a couple weeks b4 managing.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #142
  • May 17, 2024 9:38pm May 17, 2024 9:38pm
Quoting The Fool
tough to trade these things in a one-way market, not the best choice. But, I have been here before. Looking at SPX ATR to pull back towards 40 going into June, a relatively slack week ahead of the holiday, low vol is what I need now with 36dte, would like to stay static for a couple weeks b4 managing.
Looking for a decent red candle(s) to roll up the IC, hard to find in the bull market and I expect that to continue into June. I don't mind iterative rolling, but of course I want to do that with successive gains. Not likely in bull runs when the iv's are dropping....I may need supernatural help...
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143
  • Edited 3:58pm May 20, 2024 2:22am | Edited 3:58pm
Lotsa Fedspeak & NVDA to move the week ahead, but I expect more upside for SPX....the JPow put firmly established.....only a big miss in NVDA could make for a pullback chance.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144
  • Edited 3:55pm May 22, 2024 3:39pm | Edited 3:55pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}ROLLED calls to Jun21 5375/5400 for a 20c debit, added Jun21 5000/4975 puts for $2.45 credit, now have a 39dte IC @ $4.75 net credit - 15 delta puts & 25 delta calls. Expect to adjust early if market dips on PPI/CPI this week...
as noted in Jun21 IC with 5000/4975 puts and 5375/5400 calls for $4.75 net. Was aftaid of a big bounce off NVDA ER but decided to ride it out some more. Today rolled up the puts to Jun21 5150/5125 (16 delta) for net credit gain of $2, now total credit @ $6.75.....I'd like to see some doldrums now....@ 30dte I expect to have to keep fighting the bulls, but we'll see...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145
  • May 22, 2024 9:48pm May 22, 2024 9:48pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I expect to have to keep fighting the bulls, but we'll see...
looking like SPX will rally off strong NVDA show, as I expected. I have good hedge trades to catch a bull extension above 5350 to close the week, hopefully they will pay enough to roll up the bear calls. Going into the long weekend we'll see what volume does......could be some overshot on low vol....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146
  • May 24, 2024 12:51am May 24, 2024 12:51am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I have good hedge trades to catch a bull extension above 5350 to close the week, hopefully they will pay enough to roll up the bear calls. Going into the long weekend we'll see what volume does......could be some overshot on low vol....
well the Thursday red candle was long overdue. Hedge trades are likely all gonna die worthless, but the IC PnL is happy. Looking to ride the Jun21 IC as is up to CPI day, Jun12.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #147
  • Edited 1:23pm May 31, 2024 1:08pm | Edited 1:23pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}as noted in Jun21 IC with 5000/4975 puts and 5375/5400 calls for $4.75 net. Was aftaid of a big bounce off NVDA ER but decided to ride it out some more. Today rolled up the puts to Jun21 5150/5125 (16 delta) for net credit gain of $2, now total credit @ $6.75.....I'd like to see some doldrums now....@ 30dte I expect to have to keep fighting the bulls, but we'll see...
sitting on this IC still. Now at 21 dte, underwater a couple bucks. But daily net theta moving to about -$0.75 by Monday. I will be looking to close or roll before the CPI Jun12....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #148
  • Jun 3, 2024 11:48pm Jun 3, 2024 11:48pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}sitting on this IC still. Now at 21 dte, underwater a couple bucks. But daily net theta moving to about -$0.75 by Monday. I will be looking to close or roll before the CPI Jun12....
...net daily theta actually still just -30c. Painful to trade these with iv's so low. I may roll out again b4 NFP, may ride through it. I could roll out to Jul opex, Jul19, and get wider, about 20-25 delta, and pick up a buck or two...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149
  • Edited 11:48am Jun 4, 2024 11:19am | Edited 11:48am
ZZZZZZZ.....17dte now....its Jun21 5375/5400c / 5150/5125p....here atm SPX is 5260 and the trade is delta neutral at 22 delta....net theta is about -35c/day. Total snoozearama.

The "tasty standard" of 45dte & 21dte to manage really just translates roughly to x(dte) and manage at x(dte)/2. This trade is running from a 30dte @ last management so, I am in the ballpark managing at 15 dte, which will be day b4 NFP. Not sure about that & more likely I will ride out the NFP, but we'll see. Would like to run this IC down to some net profit and retire the IC trades until the IVR of SPX comes up some. Which it will probably, in the month or so pre-election. I guess.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #150
  • Jun 7, 2024 2:41pm Jun 7, 2024 2:41pm
Quoting The Fool
ZZZZZZZ.....17dte now....its Jun21 5375/5400c / 5150/5125p....here atm SPX is 5260 and the trade is delta neutral at 22 delta....net theta is about -35c/day.
relentless bull market. Not sure what can stop it. I will have to roll Monday, I suppose, not wanting to gamble on a dip off the CPI/FOMC. I can roll out to Jul opex @ 5475/5500 and 5200/5175 for a 50c loss +/-....probably what I will have to do. Worst case market to try to trade these so, if I come out without getting my dick ripped off, I'll be a hero....if I live that long....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151
  • Jun 14, 2024 1:18pm Jun 14, 2024 1:18pm
still fighting this IC and have rolled it out to Jul01. Looking at 5450/5475 calls and 5275/5250 puts. Have lost about a buck on the last set of rolls, but still around $5.75 credit if I can ride it out. Looking for a flat market, tbh I doubt it will come until we get a downturn going into the elections, 3-4 months away...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #152
  • Jun 16, 2024 10:40pm Jun 16, 2024 10:40pm
Quoting The Fool
Looking for a flat market,..
I made a new sign for the trade station wall "Don't trade against the trend"....jeezus I'd be better off picking up cans...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #153
  • Jun 21, 2024 9:38am Jun 21, 2024 9:38am
Quoting The Fool
still fighting this IC and have rolled it out to Jul01. Looking at 5450/5475 calls and 5275/5250 puts. Have lost about a buck on the last set of rolls, but still around $5.75 credit if I can ride it out. Looking for a flat market, .
relentless meltup really hurt me, now I am at Jul8 5525/5550 c / 5325/5300 p. Close to be on the whole IC. If the market would flatten out for a couple weeks, I might pull out a small profit. But, I expect to be rolling again...the calls especially are vulnerable.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #154
  • Jun 28, 2024 11:06pm Jun 28, 2024 11:06pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}But, I expect to be rolling again...the calls especially are vulnerable.
yes, cashed the bull puts and rolled the calls out 50dte to Aug opex, Aug16 @ 5625/5650, which is about 28 delta. I sold some bull puts @ 15 delta, 5225/5200, but held off on some in hopes of some bear follow through Monday. @ that pairing the IC is worth max $2.50...sad, but I'm just trying to survive. I expect the bull market to continue into 2025, but one of these months I will catch a decent mini-correction.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #155
  • Edited 4:00pm Jul 1, 2024 3:41pm | Edited 4:00pm
entered the 2-wk diagonal as shown, holding off on tail hedge long calls. If SPX moves up, I will use proceeds from this trade to roll up the Aug call condor....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #156
  • Jul 11, 2024 10:48am Jul 11, 2024 10:48am
Quoting The Fool
entered the 2-wk diagonal as shown, holding off on tail hedge long calls. If SPX moves up, I will use proceeds from this trade to roll up the Aug call condor....
I got $1.10 out of this a couple days ago. Given today's down move, it's looking like I shoulda held. o well...

I'm still in Aug16 IC, now 5650/5675c - 5325/5300 p, trying to ride it out,,,,
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #157
  • Jul 11, 2024 2:53pm Jul 11, 2024 2:53pm
Interesting stuff here, will certainly be looking to gleam what I can. I wish I could wrap my mind around these types of trades and apply it to the way I process things, it seems like there is a lot of value in diagonals and ICs. I have tried ICs, and just seem to lose confidence in them after a couple of trades, especially if applying it in a consistent manner. Will be following along, the diagonals have me thinking.
  • #158
  • Jul 11, 2024 3:06pm Jul 11, 2024 3:06pm
Calendars are more forgiving (ie, less risky) than diagonals. Diagonals are a happy medium between calendars and condors. When I am edging up to my margin limit, I will play margin-neutral calendars. I am usually trading these time spreads from 1 or 2 weeks out, and trading them inside the longer dated legs of ICs or condors.

For next week, I might try the put calendar shown. Calendars and diagonals benefit from rising iv. another way of saying is they are best entered @ low iv, when iv is expected to rise. Or, the put spreads will naturally benefit because iv will rise as the underlying falls toward the spread strike.

Market is beyond stretched and a couple things may be in play next week: earnings are kicking off and they may not be all that great; Biden drama may be coming to a head. At any rate, I am aiming to see SPX overshoot its 82 pt expected move for next Friday. 5400 looks like a big reach, but the trade would b/e @ about 5520.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #159
  • Jul 17, 2024 9:25pm Jul 17, 2024 9:25pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}... I'm still in Aug16 IC, now 5650/5675c - 5325/5300 p, trying to ride it out,,,,
a little whiff of hope today on a 70 pt drop, but I don't expect it to continue. I was thinking we'd get some elections vol starting in August, maybe profit taking post earnings. Kind of crazy dump of tech today I'll bet will be just another btfd opp and I'll believe a bear case when I see some consecutive red weekly candles. Nevertheless, I am holding off on rolling up the untested bull puts, for now....a lot of time left for this capsized trade to right itself. Or I will roll the mofo forever, just to prove I'm a fool.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #160
  • Jul 18, 2024 4:45pm Jul 18, 2024 4:45pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}... I'm still in Aug16 IC, now 5650/5675c - 5325/5300 p, trying to ride it out,,,,
I rolled about half - to Aug16 5700/5725c / 5400/5375 p, cost me $1.35, but those deltas look better. If SPX goes down tomorrow, I will roll the rest of them. @ 29 dte now, lotsa time....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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