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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #261
  • Jul 11, 2007 2:38pm Jul 11, 2007 2:38pm
Quoting jacko
Hi Stan,

the Fed / Central Banks' actions FAR OUTWEIGH anything else that anyone says is affecting the dollar. (eg housing starts, NFPs etc).
The Fed / Central Banks are all trying to reduce the indebtedness of the US. Until that happens the USD will continue to fall over the medium / long term. (Remember, the US is one Trillion in debt and it is STILL increasing...) In other words, even with the current decrease in the value of the USD, the monthly indebtedness STILL keeps increasing.

Until the USD gets into some form of "balance" with other countries, the currency will continue to decline. And one Trillion dollars is a lot of dollars !!!

.

________________________________________

(I long for those good old days of just 1 Trillion)


And Growing More Every Day


Borrowed by the General Fund– $ 8,878,302,431,229* Income: Income taxes. Outgo: Defense 30%, Interest 19%, ..
Saved by the Social Security Trust+ $ 2,122,973,988,379 Income: FICA Payroll taxes. Outgo: Benefits and disability
Saved by other Gov. Trust Funds+ $ 3,569,591,716,104</B> Income: FICA & gas taxes. Outgo: Medicare, highways, etc.
Debt Held by the Public (net debt)– $ 5,308,710,715,125†


The debt game

When politicians (of both parties) talk about the debt, they don't like talking about $9 trillion, so they add up all the funds, as shown above, and talk about the "debt held by the public." They call this the "national debt," and they call its yearly increase the "deficit."

But this way of talking makes it sound like the money put into Social Security and into government and military pensions funds, all of which is borrowed by the General Fund, is not owed to the public. But it is. That money came from everyone's paychecks (FICA) and is owed to them in retirement. Every president has promised to keep that money safe. So, really, the whole $9 trillion is owed to the public.

In fact, over $2 trillion of what they call "held by the public" is actually held by foreign interests, while 100% of what is owed by Social Security is owed to Americans.

How did the General Fund end up $9 trillion in the hole? Tax cuts and spending increases--largely military spending increases, and deficit spending (funds borrowed via Treasury notes/bonds).


**---How this will wash regardiing the USD???
only can note: it's not pretty

currency overshoots only add to the possible $ devaluation still in process.

GL--WS
  • #262
  • Jul 12, 2007 3:34am Jul 12, 2007 3:34am
Quoting jacko
Hi FXHolic,

For a little while now, I have been setting up parallel accounts which are strictly "buy and hold" positions. These are in addition to my "trading accounts".

I had been waiting for a significant retracement before establishing the parallel accounts, and the May till mid June retracement was the one I had been looking for. This was a BIG punt that 1.3300 (approx) was going to be the bottom. I have been adding more positions, but at a reducing rate since mid-late June.


.

Thanks for the reply Jako.
  • #263
  • Jul 12, 2007 7:11am Jul 12, 2007 7:11am
Thanks Jacko for all you do in this thread. You have made a difference in my trading and I am sure for many others. I am very grateful.
  • #264
  • Jul 12, 2007 9:26am Jul 12, 2007 9:26am
Quoting Hundmist
Jacko,

With your longer term approach, are you trading other pairs that sweeten the pot with positive rollover? The only negative with EUR/USD in an uptrend is the rollover ding at the end of the trading day for longer term traders. GBP pairs would seem the likely choice.

What are your thoughts?

Also, can you give a hint on how you forecast EUR/USD reaching 1.4500 eventually?

Danke
Hi Hundmist,

I have recently been thinking exactly the same thing but I don't like the volatility of the GBP. However, given that I have doubled my lots again due to the parallel accounts I am definitely giving it more thought.

1.4500 is the high reached back in Sept 1992. I think it will hit that easily and sooner than most people expect.


.
  • #265
  • Edited 11:07am Jul 12, 2007 10:44am | Edited 11:07am
Quoting jacko
Hi Hundmist,

I have recently been thinking exactly the same thing but I don't like the volatility of the GBP. However, given that I have doubled my lots again due to the parallel accounts I am definitely giving it more thought.

1.4500 is the high reached back in Sept 1992. I think it will hit that easily and sooner than most people expect.


.


While the USD will take plenty of heat --especially thruout the summer due to unfavoring momentum in thin markets
the tech picture as well reveals corrective Dollar strength then another break down---ergo: another Euro leg north (140 target) probably late July/Aug

With Respects:

But Euro's actually in unchartered territory all new lifetime highs--having begun as a currency in 1998.
{edit} the USDX reached an over 30 yr low in Sept '92--cable was in the 2.03s then.


Targeting the Gbp/USD (Cable) for 2.0440 (first) after a corrective move.

Signs of temporary topping now Euro here to 3800(20)
Cable 2.0365 to 0381

add or enter retraces next week (late)

Then next highs --but at that stage wary of deep South correction(mid/late Aug)

Cable trading /Euro watching

GL WS
  • #266
  • Jul 12, 2007 12:13pm Jul 12, 2007 12:13pm
Quoting IRISH37
Thanks Jacko for all you do in this thread. You have made a difference in my trading and I am sure for many others. I am very grateful.
Hi IRISH37,

Thank you for your kind words.

I am just trying to be useful around here and trying to help the young bucks to make a few dollars rather than losing a lot of dollars.

.
  • #267
  • Edited 1:10pm Jul 12, 2007 12:55pm | Edited 1:10pm
Quoting Kash
Hi Jacko

I am new to this forum. I've been trying to catch up on all the readings. I've been through so many threads, and a particular few caught my attention, we "clicked". I like your style.

What do you thinking of shorting the Euro now ? For a 100 pip profit target at around 1.3650 .

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1184135698
Hi Kash (again),

I answered this post above in Post 468 but it has been nagging away in my head since I replied.

I am not having a go at any trader, but I have been reading some other threads and I haven't read one decent, logically thought out, reasoning as to why the market will turn bearish ... in the near future.

Everything seems to be "gut reactions" or straight out gambling on the ubiquitous "correction" or rebound.

I don't understand why people stand in the way of a 18 month bull market express train and say that it is going to do a u-turn today, it just amazes me. And when they get run over by the express train, they just say that they were unlucky. There are a lot of newbies here and they change their minds as to bull/bear every five minutes....it is a sign of youth....LOL......


If I can help traders by having a slightly more "big picture" view, then maybe they will learn to stick by the First rule....The trend is your friend !!!!!!!
I learnt many years ago to NEVER fight the trend....all those guys who have been saying that they have been scalping on the "short" side for a profit....it doesn't make logical sense.

I think that it is way too obvious to the big boys that this is a "bull" market...only the novices and wild gamblers are playing this on the "short" side of the street...and they (the novices and wild gamblers) are getting destroyed...
The inarguable fact is that this market is at its 18 month highs...so, logically, how can the "shorts" be profitable in that period...its possible that they may be extraordinary traders who have played the "short" side and won against a very strong trend...but I doubt it !!

Furthermore, if they are that good as traders (and as lightening quick as you need to be in beating the trend of the market), why wouldn't you simply cross the road and play the "long" side of the street. Why take on all the risks of fighting against an upward trend??? (The most important rule in this game is to always minimise your risk...because if you lose all your money,then you can't play anymore.) It is possible that they have had the occasional win, but they can't consistently beat the trend...despite what they say !!....


I see two issues here:

1, Going "short" is going against the trend.... And the trend is your friend.

2. Scalping against the trend is dangerous. You are playing against the market AND the brokers and they will rip you every chance they can...it is way too heavily weighted in their favour for anyone except an absolute genius "anti-trend scalper" trader to beat them...and as far as I know there are no absolute genius "short" traders around at the moment.

Again, not wanting to sound like an old man, but this trading is not as hard as young aggressive traders make it into...just calm down on the fast in /outs and go with the flow (or trend). If you are waiting for this market to turn from 18 MONTH bull to bear in the immediate future, you will be financially stripped.


Another way to look at it...
Look at it this way....18 months = 60 weeks = 546 days= 13,104 hours= 786,240 minutes...thats how long this market has been going UP...what makes anyone think that it will completely change its fundamental direction in the very next 10 minutes? (which is when I assume that you want to put that very clever "short" trade into the market...)

I am not trying to be a smart ass...

Just trying to help...

A quick summary:

In this bull market,

1. if you are "long" and wrong... the market will come back up to save you.
2. if you are "short" and hurt... there is no way out.


.
  • #268
  • Jul 12, 2007 4:47pm Jul 12, 2007 4:47pm
wonderful Jacko, all you are saying is very correct but still very difficult to apply to newbies like me who get still get scared of the first 1 hour bearish candle when they are long. I know, its the trader's psychology that it the most important to his success or failure. Trying to learn these things once for all.

Yesterday I got in my first Jacko style euro trade, entered long at 1.3750, and trailed my stop to 1.3748 when the euro made the 1.3798 high. I am now trying to convince myself not to exit at 40 pips profit, and to let the market take me out at BE or higher. This is the most difficult thing in Forex, I believe - when to exit, not when to enter.

Anyway, Jacko, you are on of the best, only by posting here you open the minds of many young and hot-blodded traders like me.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #269
  • Jul 12, 2007 7:50pm Jul 12, 2007 7:50pm
Hello,

I have been following this thread for awhile and I wanted to get in on the Eur/Usd train. I missed the last entry point, so I am wonder what people are currently looking at for an entry. I see a 50% fibo @ 1.3682 on the daily and the round number of 1.3700 would be some-what close. Is that a good entry point.

Aliassmith
  • #270
  • Edited 8:39pm Jul 12, 2007 8:24pm | Edited 8:39pm
Quoting Aliassmith
Hello,

I have been following this thread for awhile and I wanted to get in on the Eur/Usd train. I missed the last entry point, so I am wonder what people are currently looking at for an entry. I see a 50% fibo @ 1.3682 on the daily and the round number of 1.3700 would be some-what close. Is that a good entry point.

Aliassmith
This is what I would do if I'm in that doubt.
Try not to assume too much. Try to somewhat trap the market LOL. For me, the only valid assumption in this business is to assume "a long-term trend will continue more often than not". Like what jacko says, trend dont change in 10 mins. Dont stand in front of an express train.

Enter 2 long pending orders at 3700 and 3800.

When 3800 got hit
- remove the pending order at 3700
- if SL got hit (lose $$), use the anti-hedging.


When 3700 got hit
- remove pending order at 3800 (if you dont like pyramiding)
- if SL got hit afterward (lose $$), use anti-hedging


KISS

jacko,

thanks for the much needed wisdom.
  • #271
  • Jul 13, 2007 1:52am Jul 13, 2007 1:52am
Quoting jacko

A quick summary:

In this bull market,
1. if you are "long" and wrong... the market will come back up to save you.
2. if you are "short" and hurt... there is no way out.


.
Thank you, Jocko, for your words of wisdom....
{Promotion Removed}
  • #272
  • Jul 13, 2007 1:54am Jul 13, 2007 1:54am
Quoting jacko
Hi Kash (again),



2. Scalping against the trend is dangerous. You are playing against the market AND the brokers and they will rip you every chance they can...it is way too heavily weighted in their favour for anyone except an absolute genius "anti-trend scalper" trader to beat them...and as far as I know there are no absolute genius "short" traders around at the moment.

Again, not wanting to sound like an old man, but this trading is not as hard as young aggressive traders make it into...just calm down on the fast in /outs and go with the flow (or trend).



2. if you are "short" and hurt... there is no way out.


.




Dudes, This post is aimed at me
cos I was trying to be arsey trader by selling euro, and aiming for 1.3500. Luckily I got out of my shorts with a couple of points but missed the big jump in the euro to 1.3795. Short term gain of a couple of points was HUGELY overwayed by my missed points on the upside
Jacko, I have learnt the lesson. thanks for not embarrassing me here
  • #273
  • Jul 13, 2007 3:31am Jul 13, 2007 3:31am
Quoting jacko

I am not having a go at any trader, but I have been reading some other threads and I haven't read one decent, logically thought out, reasoning as to why the market will turn bearish ... in the near future.

Everything seems to be "gut reactions" or straight out gambling on the ubiquitous "correction" or rebound.
Amen. One word to them about the contrary they will feel you're spiting them get emotional and throw fits and insults back. Cable / Euro threads here are a superb example of the exact fallacy you mention. They spend their days posting 10 posts a day saying "up, up! no, wait, down, down!" with 30-50 pip targets etc.


Quote
I don't understand why people stand in the way of a 18 month bull market express train and say that it is going to do a u-turn today, it just amazes me. And when they get run over by the express train, they just say that they were unlucky.
Quote
There are a lot of newbies here and they change their minds as to bull/bear every five minutes....it is a sign of youth....LOL......


More a sign of not having traded long enough, I'm not THAT youthful anymore, but I, too, have spent around 1000 pips of a bull run up on cable shorting it. I'm serious, I think I shorted almost every pip that it rose once. Then some day you realize that your ten cents won't turn around a multibillion market that easy.

Quote
If I can help traders by having a slightly more "big picture" view, then maybe they will learn to stick by the First rule....The trend is your friend !!!!!!!
Quote
I learnt many years ago to NEVER fight the trend....all those guys who have been saying that they have been scalping on the "short" side for a profit....it doesn't make logical sense.


Yep. If the market has moved up 1000 pips and in between retraced 60%, that still means anyone going long has had a higher chance of getting pips in his favor AND getting more than a third more pips out of trades as well.

Quote
Again, not wanting to sound like an old man, but this trading is not as hard as young aggressive traders make it into...just calm down on the fast in /outs and go with the flow (or trend). If you are waiting for this market to turn from 18 MONTH bull to bear in the immediate future, you will be financially stripped.


It's not the trading that's hard, it's the waiting for the right window and opportunity that requires the discipline and patience the people that came to forex expecting to get rich by daily profits and trades did not realize they'd have to bring with them.
It's not about trading EVERY day, it's about trading that ONE RIGHT DAY.
In our case the 13th/14th of June was that one day or if you're a weekly trader, the 18th.

Again, had to find this all out the hard way myself.

You make money by waiting, not by trading. Sounds so silly nobody wants to believe it, but it's true.

Quote
I am not trying to be a smart ass...

Just trying to help...


Amen once again

Thanks for pointing these things out for everyone, I don't think they can be said or emphasized often enough.

Oh and Hi Arctic, crez, coma, traden...hope you guys are well =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #274
  • Jul 13, 2007 3:58am Jul 13, 2007 3:58am
Quoting SeekingLight
Oh and Hi Arctic, crez, coma, traden...hope you guys are well =)
Hi SeekingLight.

Yes i am fine thanks. My acc is not bigger but it is not much smaller so i guess that part is ok too.
I hope to make it grow some time in the future, that is why i am here looking for what Jacko is doing to make his acc bigger.. lol
I hope all is well for you also.

----------------------------------------------------

Jacko.

Thank you very much for taking the time and work to help other traders.
I want you to know it is very much appreciated.
I wish you all the best in your life.

Arctic4x
  • #275
  • Jul 13, 2007 7:43am Jul 13, 2007 7:43am
Hi Jacko,

Once again, from the chorus on the sidelines, a not so newbie (but still learning painfully!) trader wants to thank you for reinforcing what will become apparent to the ones who survive the odds and the beating which is both emotional/psychological and financial. If there are any newbies out there who are fortunate enough to hear your words of advice and to take them seriously there is no doubt they will benefit and grow as traders.

I have definitely benefited from your help and it has helped me to resolve that very very key issue: understanding that the trend is your friend. So simple and extremely powerful a tool, and yet not so obvious to the new trader.

Thanks again!

Joe


I am not trying to be a smart ass...

Just trying to help...

A quick summary:

In this bull market,

1. if you are "long" and wrong... the market will come back up to save you.
2. if you are "short" and hurt... there is no way out.


.[/quote]
  • #276
  • Edited 9:28am Jul 13, 2007 8:06am | Edited 9:28am
Quoting Kash
I think, with my limited experience, that this piece of advice alone can do magic to one's trading.

Absolutely true about trading with the long trend. I'll desribe what went through my head and at the same time refute it.

At first I thought :

1) GBP (and Euro) Hsan't been this high since years
2) Even with the uptrend, we are at the upper channel and a correction is eminent

On the flip side :

1) That could have it's weight, but it's not entirely a deal maker by itself, because the reality is that highs and lows get broken all the time, even extreme ones, worst, they do when you least expect them to. Risk is always infinite < ---- (take this with a grain of salt )

2) Historically, trend breakthroughs IN the direction of the trend without corrections aren't really rare, in fact, dare I say common ?

By the way Jacko, you trade the dailies and weeklies ?

Here an interesting looking chart. This is a weekly GBP/USD

http://forexfactory.com/attachment.p...1&d=1184317716
When I looked at your diversion chart, it instantly took me back to my wedding day 3 years ago. The day my wife (Trendy) and I were married, in front of the big Willow tree outside the house we bought to live in...

The years were good to my wife and I, we lived a life together and she was always there for me when I did the small stupid things men do.

And now here we are, right in front of me is the new sexy diverenge, and she is hot, with all her countertrend voluptuousness. Hum I think, it would not be so bad to have fling with her just this once. What could be the harm in spending some time with Ms Countertrend.

It turns out that is the one thing my wife will not put up with... Who knew?

So, you know how this ends, When Ms CounterTrend meets My wife Trendy at the TrendLine Spa, They just happen to strike up a conversation and, well one thing leads to another and it all comes out.

Now I am out sitting in the gutter on Market Street and Ms CounterTrend has moved on to other flights of fancy, and my ex wife Trendy Is enjoying the big home we built together and my new red corvette.

I have an appointment with the Property Manager at Loser Arms to see if I qualify for a Studio Apartment...
  • #277
  • Jul 13, 2007 8:16am Jul 13, 2007 8:16am
Quoting smjones
When I looked at your diversion chart, it instantly took me back to my wedding day 3 years ago. The day my wife (Trendy) and I were married, in front of the big Willow tree outside the house we bought to live in...

The years were good to my and I, we lived a life together and she was always there for me when I did the small stupid things men do.

And now here we are, right in front of me is the new sexy diverenge, and she is hot, with all her countertrend voluptuousness. Hum I think, it would not be so bad to have fling with her just this once. What could be the harm in spending some time with Ms Countertrend.

It turns out that is the one thing my wife will not put up with... Who knew?

So, you know how this ends, When Ms CounterTrend meets My wife Trendy at the TrendLine Spa, They just happen to strike up a conversation and, well one thing leads to another and it all comes out.

Now I am out sitting in the gutter on Market Street and Ms CounterTrend has moved on to other flights of fancy, and my ex wife Trendy Is enjoying the big home we built together and my new red corvette.

I have an appointment with the Property Manager at Loser Arms to see if I qualify for a Studio Apartment...
I'm getting sooo many chuckles around here lately
  • #278
  • Jul 13, 2007 8:26am Jul 13, 2007 8:26am
Quoting smjones
When I looked at your diversion chart, it instantly took me back to my wedding day 3 years ago. The day my wife (Trendy) and I were married, in front of the big Willow tree outside the house we bought to live in...

The years were good to my and I, we lived a life together and she was always there for me when I did the small stupid things men do.

And now here we are, right in front of me is the new sexy diverenge, and she is hot, with all her countertrend voluptuousness. Hum I think, it would not be so bad to have fling with her just this once. What could be the harm in spending some time with Ms Countertrend.

It turns out that is the one thing my wife will not put up with... Who knew?

So, you know how this ends, When Ms CounterTrend meets My wife Trendy at the TrendLine Spa, They just happen to strike up a conversation and, well one thing leads to another and it all comes out.

Now I am out sitting in the gutter on Market Street and Ms CounterTrend has moved on to other flights of fancy, and my ex wife Trendy Is enjoying the big home we built together and my new red corvette.

I have an appointment with the Property Manager at Loser Arms to see if I qualify for a Studio Apartment...

Hahahahaaha

Ok, that's for your wife .... so what do your kids think ?
  • #279
  • Edited 4:18pm Jul 13, 2007 8:41am | Edited 4:18pm
Quoting Kash
Hahahahaaha

Ok, that's for your wife .... so what do your kids think ?
The little dividends will not even come visit...

They say it smells like failure here.

I have a Cleaning service come. Her name is IRiS, but I think she's taking my stuff and she does not do a very good job, and is really disorganized. But, being a powerfully built women, I don't complain much.
  • #280
  • Jul 13, 2007 8:47am Jul 13, 2007 8:47am
Quoting smjones
The little dividends will not even come visit...
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