S&P500 trading

Here's some "food for thought" about 1929 crash. Naysayers claim EW and Fibs are self-fulfilling because of wide-spread use. Yet when they see this chart they go silent. Can't explain how something could work before just about anyone even knew of it:-



Time, price, pattern, momentum .... and divergence in 5th wave

was hoping others would comment on your post...so that I don't have to comment on it. lol
am no EW expert nor actually use it...so don't want to sound dumb... but what are we looking at... in layman's terms ? mean it sincerely.

& btw -- how does one bookmark this post / any other post -- as a "fave" ?

checking pa , waiting for top failure for next swing towards 4631 at an earliest . take care

Elliott Wave says trends move in 5 waves, 3 impulsive and 2 corrective. That is labeled on high on 1929 chart - end of wave 5.

There is a time projection of wave 1 that landed on wave 5 high (one day off) as well as multiple fib price projections and an external retracement (more than 100%).

Momentum (5-34-5 Oscillator on bottom) and divergence thereof. Then Momo crosses below 0 line.

HTH

I don't believe EW is the complete picture, I think its part of the picture, but not the answer, which is why it often shows up as the fractal passes into our view, but if it were the answer then the EW experts at EWI would have nailed the 5 of 5 of 5 that they've been preaching about since 1986 and its not shown up - I don't know their current count, but I bet they are still building towards that mega 5 of 5

What is the bigger picture? I don't know, but I think the answer lies in the building of a geometric structure that is continually growing and encompasses Fib and the EW pattern at certain junctions of that build and within that you will get all the "Pattern, price, time and Momentum" syncing nicely

As traders we can use little bits of the bigger picture though, so nothing is "wrong" or incorrect, we can trade what we believe

Gann found that the markets moved in 3-4 sections, I remember when I read it, "like EW" So there's a EW/Gann overlap on price movement for certain

This chart of the Nasdaq shows price correcting EXACTLY on the 52.6% TIME value of the prior bull run and at Fib price levels

52.6% is the INVERSE of 1.902 which is the diagonal of a golden rectangle and obviously riddled with FIB ratios throughout - so the Nasdaq was at that time building something entirely based on geometric [FIB] ratios in both price and time


If you look at the SP500 back in time you can find price hitting 2 different geometric shapes at the 2022 high (we also had the Gann angles on another chart running through the same price and time levels, as well as stopping the 2020 plunge exactly)

This one is the golden rectangle diagonal showing up in price on the SP500



But it was also accompanied by another exact geometrical shape at the same price level and this one was directly linked to the low price of the 2020 plunge

This shape was a square, as both 35.4 and 2.828 are contracting and expanding ratios of 1.4142 which is the diagonal of the square



So whatever part of a geometric construction has the square and fib both ending at the same place (could be many shapes) was what was being built by the market, which you will find EW appears and conforms throughout the build etc

The building blocks of life and the universe are geometric which encompasses the geometries of the square, cube, root 5, fib etc all inter-locking their individual beauty

PS - I am NOT attacking your post on the EW count in 1929 - I think its amazing that these bits of geometrical movement have been present in the market doing their thing decades and centuries before anyone noticed them and published work on them

Agree. It is part, though a big part for me. As for EWI - I never followed. Trading not forecasting is my only goal.

Don't have time ATM to dig up a chart image or two but I also use what some refer to as Fib Angle 137.5% = 360° * 38.2%

Yeah if you believe that the markets move in a geometrical order then we'll see geometrical confirmation from varying geometrical methods along its path

I just trade very simply with the trend, but I also have an eye on possible big turning points, I'm definitely a forecaster, but it's more of "watch these areas" rather than "at this point the market will do this" BUT, to make money from the markets consistently I'm a trader

I got into all this from Robert Miners side, hence the DT software, but I explored EWI and got a huge amount of their research/analysis which got me into sentiment & cycles and the like, up until back end of 2010's Pretcher was still a perma bear

Be Interested to see the Fib angle charts

thanks for the reply.

was forex-jailed so couldn't reply

MON July 8th, 2024 - Mon July 15th, 2024 1.272% - 1.854%

Mon July 8th, 2024 - Mon July 15th, 2024 data + calc. .272% - .854%

TODAY Tues July 16th, 2024 data & calc.

still maintain we see a "top" come NEXT week -- most likely Monday July 22nd, 2024

we've already surpassed the MONTHLY spread of 222.02 --> LAST YEAR's July 2023 spread

Mon + tues July 15, 16th, 2024 :: .272% - 1.854%

guide for WEED July 17th, 2024 "OPEN" sheet using today's close of 5667.20

previous post -- meant WED as in WEDNESDAY -- NOT WEED !!! LOL
wow.. didn't realize you can do more than 1 graph in one post.

final one... "nightly" sheet -- most likely will work out tomorrow 'cause today's spread = 30.65 [day high - day low]

last one..based on today's data TUES July 16th, 2024

LOOK @ LAST July 2023 --
the day the "bottom" THURS July 6th, 2023
and the day the "TOP" THURS July 27th, 2023
..21 days
so there4 -- Mon July 1st "bottom" - > Mon July 22nd, 2024 as the "TOP" ...but MIGHT end up being MON July 29th -- 2 days prior to FOMC
...NOTICE -- when FOMC happened LAST year

I could be wrong...but somehow doubt it.

from TIME PRICE RESEARCH:

Feigenbaum Cycle Potential Key Date = August 4 or 9, 2024 | LunaticTrader
In the recent years the 666 week and 666 day cycles have done a good job in pointing out market highs and lows. See this post from 2021 about the Feigenbaum cycle. And this post from 2023, which indicated the summer high as well as the early winter low in that year: 666 Again. Another key date was mentioned in this second article, August 9, 2024.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.co...-h153/spx5.png

The long term 666 week cycle peaked on January 4, 2022, only a few weeks after the December 10 key date we had pointed out in the original article. As shown in the chart, 666 days before that came the covid crash. If we take exactly 666 days then we find March 9, 2020. That became known as Black Monday and was also the day when Italy announced a countrywide lockdown, the first country to do so. So that was the main panic day of the Covid crash. The 282 day decline from the early 2022 peak allowed us to project three more key dates. Late July 2023 became a market peak, followed by a bottom just before the November 1, 2023 date our 666 day cycle indicated. That leaves us with August [4 or ] 9, 2024, the next upcoming key date.