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Golden-Cross Trading-Idea

  • #341
  • Edited 10:48am Jul 1, 2024 10:09am | Edited 10:48am
Hi SG and thank you for the new trading idea!

I like the concept for predicting the cross price and I will dive deep into this until I can trade it with confidence.

I've read the thread and I think I understand the concept, but could you please summarize what each element of the diagram means? I can see that the indicators have evolved during development and I think a legend would help newcomers better understand the chat and indie functionality.

Thank you very much!

Legend:

- The small green dots are the predicted prices at which a cross of the two 5-GDs can take place.
- The brown rectangles are possible "Stop" entry prices. (cant find it on these two charts)
- Trend is defined as the position of the GD-Close relative to the GD-Open

- UpperTrend is the trend of the upper timeframe (D1 for H4, W1 for D1) as a background color.
- Open is open of the bars in the current TimeFrame
- I calculate the predicted cross price mathematically

In the charts, the forecast cross prices are the small green rectangles, and the stair-shaped blue line is calculated for the upper time frame.

Is this correct?

Whats do these 4 elements mean?

I think that the bigger arrows are drown when the price crosses the upper trend blue line, right?
But what is the mean of smaller arrows and is their position important?
I see one green circle and many green rectangles, right?
And I see 4 bigger circles, what do they tell us?

Thank you for your time and support!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #342
  • Jul 2, 2024 3:10am Jul 2, 2024 3:10am
Quoting pewebly
... I like the concept for predicting the cross price and I will dive deep into this until I can trade it with confidence. I've read the thread and I think I understand the concept...
You are right, your analysis is correct!
The bigger arrows show the crossing of the price with the upper trend, and the smaller horizontal arrows on the same bar show the calculated entry level.
One can take these signals into account, but I have not done so.

Check this with two time frame charts, and for your chart you can see the signals here.
Because there are some problems with the evaluation of the signals in the upper time frames, it is better to trade these TFs separately.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.rDaily.png Size: 9 KB


Unfortunately, I have a habit of making everything more complicated, and then investing a lot of time in analyses to simplify everything...
The larger circles are the calculated entry levels when a crossing of the 5 (O/C) moving averages has taken place. If not, then only the brown rectangles remain, and by moving the circles one can see that they lie on top of each other.
  • #343
  • Jul 2, 2024 3:24am Jul 2, 2024 3:24am
There are a few more details for trading that I may introduce later.

Interesting to study in the thread "Trading Made Simple" are the charts posted by @emmanuel with very useful recommendations regarding the "TMS 5er Method".
In this chart I draw an "LWMA-5, Median, Shift 1".
Because the requirements are almost identical, you can compare the signals. The difference is that with the Golden Cross you get calculated values for crossing and entry in advance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.rH4-TMS5.png Size: 27 KB
  • #344
  • Edited 9:05am Jul 2, 2024 5:39am | Edited 9:05am
Hi SG

Thank you very much for your explanation!

I am still studying the indy and want to see your progress in development, so please forgive me if this has been fixed in the newer versions but for now I am not quite sure I completely understand it, so please let me ask you to check these two screenshots.

- Why there are two dots - red and green on the last bar? I noticed this to happen from time to time.
- Do you consider spread ? Please check the screenshot for the short signal. Maybe it's a good idea to have a spread into account or I still have a lot to learn.
- Would you please try one more time to explain (to me) the mean of the parameter "Offset_forCrossing=10"?
- I noticed several times the background color doesn't change when the info panel changes. For example, it is up trend background with uptrend in the panel for upper TF, then suddenly the panel says down for the upper TF while the background remains the same up-color. Then the panel returns to the uptrend again or, if the upper TF bars ends, the background color changes. I am sorry for my broken English but I just wanted to make you aware that I notices for a very short period of time a difference between the background color and info panel trends. I believe it is because you change the bg color at new bar, maybe, while in the panels it is ontick().

Thank you very much for the time. I am looking at the chart trying to find a way to implement your ideas

Regards
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #345
  • Jul 3, 2024 6:55am Jul 3, 2024 6:55am
_______________@ SwingMan , could you PLZ make this EA build for 1420 , it is @1415 - - - MT4

TIA for ur Response !
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 EA1 Pro_fix.ex4   38 KB | 248 downloads
Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
  • #346
  • Jul 4, 2024 11:37am Jul 4, 2024 11:37am
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} You are right, your analysis is correct! The bigger arrows show the crossing of the price with the upper trend, and the smaller horizontal arrows on the same bar show the calculated entry level. One can take these signals into account, but I have not done so. Check this with two time frame charts, and for your chart you can see the signals here. Because there are some problems with the evaluation of the signals in the upper time frames, it is better to trade these TFs separately. {image} Unfortunately, I have a habit of making everything...
Thank you for explanation. What is the bold line with the red dot for SL on it? MA in Color, I guess, right?
One more stupid question - how to make smGoldenCross TrendMTF draw 3 lines? Mine draws only the middle blue one.

Thanks!
  • #347
  • Jul 5, 2024 10:05am Jul 5, 2024 10:05am
I have just checked the H4 chart with 4 trades I should be made if I was using the Golden Cross idea the way I understand it and I see 3 red arrows and one blue.
Would i be in profit at 2:1 RR? It ALL depends on the exits, I think. What do you think?

1st and 2nd red arrows as entry would be hit by a SL at the time of the red down arrow.
3rd could a win or a loss depending on the TP and SL and 4th is a big win, if you keep trailing TP the right way.

I have a lot more to learn on when to enter and exit so any advice is welcome!

Thanks!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #348
  • Jul 5, 2024 10:18am Jul 5, 2024 10:18am
Should I BUY at this point by following the BUY signal and hoping that the price will increase because of the bull up trend or should I expect a reversal when the small rectangle below the MA was crossed?
Please explain it one more time for me.

THANK YOU!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #349
  • Edited 3:46pm Jul 5, 2024 3:01pm | Edited 3:46pm
Quoting pewebly
Should I BUY at this point by following the BUY signal and hoping that the price will increase because of the bull up trend or should I expect a reversal when the small rectangle below the MA was crossed? Please explain it one more time for me.
- I will revise the indicator "Signals_v5.1" because I see that it is unclear how and why the green rectangles predict the price for a crossover:
If the red MA-close is above the green MA-open, a crossover can ONLY take place below the MA-open, i.e. there is a stop sell on the right side!
I think these rectangles should be red for sell, and the others above the MA-open should be green.

- Please ignore the indicator with signals on D1 in the H4 chart(Trend MTF).
I have found that it is better to trade only one timeframe

- The thick blue/red line is "Trend v2.2" with period 30.
(6 H4 bars per day * 5 days = 1 week = 30 bars)
As a small note, the colors of the lines are not always correct and I have to rework the indicator.
The thicker circles: the MAs are calculated for the period 30, and the MAs cross each other in the circles.

- Please be sure to take the Donchian Channel into account. Later I will perhaps explain why this is very important, or one can find it by oneself...

- If the info panel is displayed, please ignore it. It is only a preliminary display.

- The color change of the background related to the upper trend can be confusing. For the 6 bars of a week, the trend can be long for the first 3 days, and short at the end of the week.
But, if you only see the chart at the end of the week, you will only see the background for short.
I think I need to define the trend based solely on the slope of the thick line and for that I will have to program a new indicator.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 GoldenCross DF-DonchianFibo.mq4   8 KB | 577 downloads
  • #350
  • Jul 6, 2024 12:08am Jul 6, 2024 12:08am
Hi swingman,
Have you tried RMA MAs?
Bank Indicator | Page 93 | Forex Factory sincerely
Have a good day
jf
  • #351
  • Jul 6, 2024 12:54am Jul 6, 2024 12:54am
Quoting le celte
Hi swingman, Have you tried RMA MAs? Bank Indicator | Page 93 | Forex Factory sincerely Have a good day jf
Thanks for the tip!
I tested the indicator briefly, and for the existing period 13, the trading signals come later than with GoldenCross.
The arrows are placed after the candle crosses the MA, and the cross with GC is predicted and then confirmed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #352
  • Jul 6, 2024 1:08am Jul 6, 2024 1:08am
Hi,
Here with two RMA Open / Close 6

EURUSD M15
Take the trend on H4 (only Buy)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture d'écran 2024-07-06 075925.png Size: 14 KB
  • #353
  • Jul 6, 2024 2:18am Jul 6, 2024 2:18am
Hi SG

First of all THANK YOU for your support!

Quoting SwingMan
{quote} - I will revise the indicator "Signals_v5.1" because I see that it is unclear how and why the green rectangles predict the price for a crossover: If the red MA-close is above the green MA-open, a crossover can ONLY take place below the MA-open, i.e. there is a stop sell on the right side! I think these rectangles should be red for sell, and the others above the MA-open should be green.
Yeah, that's what I thought all along, but I'm a bit confused by the comment in Post #74 e.g.
"The entries are calculated from the predicted close. For example, for the long direction, half the value from the channel oscillator is taken as the offset from predicted Close to Entry,, and one can give as order the calculated entry as a Buy-Stop." - why did you say BUY STOP? The chart is identical to what I posted - long trend, and green rectangle below the MAs


One more thing - I've seen the price cross the brown rectangle several times in a row during the formation of this current bar and have received several BUY alerts (should they be selli?) BUT...nothing is certain until the bar closes, right? Everyone here and there says we should only work with closed bars and ignore current one in progress. If there was a pending STOP order at the price of the brown rectangle, it would be filled, but the cross could not actually happen. Is this part of the game?

Quote
- Please ignore the indicator with signals on D1 in the H4 chart(Trend MTF). I have found that it is better to trade only one timeframe
Ok. Draw_GoldenCrossArrows=false

Quote
- The thick blue/red line is "Trend v2.2" with period 30. (6 H4 bars per day * 5 days = 1 week = 30 bars) As a small note, the colors of the lines are not always correct and I have to rework the indicator. The thicker circles: the MAs are calculated for the period 30, and the MAs cross each other in the circles.
Thanks. A link is appreciated.

Quote
- Please be sure to take the Donchian Channel into account. Later I will perhaps explain why this is very important, or one can find it by oneself...
Thank you for this suggestion and the link!

Quote
- If the info panel is displayed, please ignore it. It is only a preliminary display.
Sure!

Quote
- The color change of the background related to the upper trend can be confusing. For the 6 bars of a week, the trend can be long for the first 3 days, and short at the end of the week. But, if you only see the chart at the end of the week, you will only see the background for short. I think I need to define the trend based solely on the slope of the thick line and for that I will have to program a new indicator.

Yeah, I noticed it. Can you calculate and change the color on current TF bar close? I think there was a version like that and it was confusing...Or maybe a Mini trend indicator could help.

Thank you very much again for your time and support!
  • #354
  • Jul 6, 2024 4:47am Jul 6, 2024 4:47am
Quoting pewebly
...
- In post #74 I explained in general terms, and not in relation to the chart posted

- The indicator Trend 2.2 is the first in the files list (paper clip top right)

- In every trend, for example, the forecast cross price is reached first, and one calculates a stop entry.
Everyone can check whether waiting for the bar close is advantageous or not, and trade accordingly. On waiting one ignores the advantage of the GoldenCross idea, and one should trade another system as quickly as possible...

From time to time I have compared the crossings of the "TMS 5_er" with GC, and wrote somewhere that the signals are often identical, only that GC provides useful entry values. Very often, entries are more advantageous for GC.

(If you enjoy it, you can set the MA to Simple in "Signals_v5.1" and test the values numerically)

- The background color is a visual aid for the direction in which you are allowed to trade (permitted direction).
(There is a single exception when one of the maximum 6 bars hits the Donchian Channel.)
Actually, I have to change the algorithm for the background color and draw it synchronously with the color of the thick line "Trend(30)". I explained the reason for this in a previous post.

- You can use the "Slope" indicator as a "Mini Trend indicator".
Here I am posting the "Slope_v_2.1"
I am also posting a new version "3.0" for the "ChannelOscillator"
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 smGoldenCross Slope_v2.1.ex4   20 KB | 544 downloads
File Type: ex4 smLazyHedging ChannelOsc_v3.0.ex4   21 KB | 512 downloads
  • #355
  • Jul 6, 2024 5:30am Jul 6, 2024 5:30am
I am not quite sure how to use the "Slope" indicator as a "Mini Trend indicator". Can you help me?
I cant find Signals_v5.1 so I use Signals_v5.0 instead. What's the difference?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #356
  • Jul 6, 2024 5:42am Jul 6, 2024 5:42am
Quoting pewebly
I am not quite sure how to use the "Slope" indicator as a "Mini Trend indicator". Can you help me?

I cant find Signals_v5.1 so I use Signals_v5.0 instead. What's the difference?
In the slope indicator there are histograms with strong and weak colors for the direction, as well as the cross signals.
Everyone should interpret it for themselves.

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 smGoldenCross Signals_v5.1.ex4   70 KB | 721 downloads
  • #357
  • Jul 6, 2024 11:57am Jul 6, 2024 11:57am
Quoting kiennt1980
today XAU gvae me 10R : Many thanks SwingMan's system , easy to trade {image}
Looks awesome!! what are the settings on your RHO indicators?
  • #358
  • Jul 6, 2024 2:24pm Jul 6, 2024 2:24pm
Quoting kiennt1980
{quote} Thks SwingMan I used your Temp GC and TripleThreat of RHO nice system easy to use {image}
Will you please post this exact template?
  • #359
  • Jul 6, 2024 2:27pm Jul 6, 2024 2:27pm
Quoting SwingMan
- Signal 5 is ok. The UpperTrend is Short (light color in the background), open is above the CrossPrice. With a sell stop the price reaches the red arrow = profit. {image}
Can you please tell me more about this idea?

1. Wait for a new bar.
2. See Open is above the CrossPrice.
3. Place STOP SELL with the value from the brown rectangle.
4. Set SL = the max of the last two bars.
5. With 1% risk lots are calculated.
6. TP = 2RR

Right?

Thanks!

P.S. Can we automate this somehow? For example be able to set some rules for proper alert and populate values in a trading panel for easy orders
  • #360
  • Jul 7, 2024 10:11am Jul 7, 2024 10:11am
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} In the slope indicator there are histograms with strong and weak colors for the direction, as well as the cross signals. Everyone should interpret it for themselves. {file}
HI SM
Thanks for your work
how you filter the trades?
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