MY Journal-phil13

update on scouting .....

exit ..... someone is very desperate today, have seen no sync really so far.

and another go at it???.....

update ........ rules 1,2 and 3

stopped out and flipped with the turning flow......

update.....

exit and i am done for the day......

nice flip thought I saw it coming but hesitated so just watching atm

trade, let us see if it hits these targets or busts me out???.....

update.....



EDIT..... stopped out at B/E

having another go, will be out before the news at some point.......



EDIT.... stopped out at the loss.

beware of the huge assassin in G/U H1.....

here are my end of week charts, no what i think may happen as we are well into desperado month as last weeks action shows, all possibilities remain open including sudden moves without a known reason (news), it really is just real desperate big traders left that have not hit their targets and are wondering 'will i still have this job next year', so be careful if you are trading the rest of the month.




this is where i also say goodbye, i say thanks to the good people i have met on my own journey and i hope this journal has helped and will help some of you find your own way to trading success, i leave as i started with the wise words of a great trader and teacher FTI .
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The problem with some people and some professional Technical Analyst today ( being a certified Technical Analyst myself ) is that they use the Technical studies as if, it were the "Holy Grail" of trading & their pathway to the millions.

How far that is from the truth.
Any person with a good brain on their shoulders, will ultimate come to the realisation that these are just tools. Tools that are built on historical and lagging databases. Moreover the rigidity of the parameters used in the studies imposes rigid responses to changing market conditions. Have we forgotten that the market is a live beast that learns and adapts to trader behaviours? Many have forgotten that the market is the sum total of the behaviour of the participants engaged in the market place. These tools are used for measuring the markets health, not so unlike the thermometer to a doctor, or the measuring tape to a carpenter, just a tool.

Then how is it possible that these studies themselves can be considered the "Holy Grail"?
It may be due to ignorance (being new and uniniatiated), lazyness, or just plain stubborness ( a little knowledge is a dangerous thing). Of course it is not nice for me, to tell you about those who have "a little knowledge", trying to scam those who know less than them. That's another story.
Some do so, because of a very new disease discovered recently, the sickness of "the chance".
If you use the Technical studies as your "Holy Grail", I have only one word for you, GAMBLER.

I put it to you, that, to consider your Technical Studies to be more than what they are is a "fallacy" in trading the markets, not so unlike martingale gamblers' fallacy. It can lead you to a very dark place.

What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your success in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients. Not so unlike in baking cakes.
I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation. Of course there are many more components, for the moment these seems of dominant importance, in my humble opinion.

I hope you will think about what I've said very carefully.
I shall try to push these doors ajar for you slowly to show you the light at the end of the tunnel (please hope its no on-coming train), God willing.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...alysis-fallacy

THANK YOU FTI.

this is where i also say goodbye, i say thanks to the good people i have met on my own journey

Why you leaving Phil ??

Hi Terry,

i just do not know what more i can add of any value that is not going over the stuff i have already posted, i feel i am just now posting trades for the sake of it but the reasons and entries are already laid out in my journal so many times and in different ways, so i can not see it is really of anymore benefit to anyone who really wants to see what i have learnt from FTI to continue, it is all here from my own point of view from my own learning journey, the main part is as i say in FTI's thread and like others who have journals this journal is only my interpretation of what and how i journeyed down my own learning curve and i what FTi asked us to do to show others how we done and hope that they can in turn use these journals to maybe help them find their way from FTI's thread.
i feel people need to look and study FTI's thread to learn from it, some of us who have been around for a while (though no one posts anymore) have their own journals and people can use all of these to try to help maybe some way in their own journey along their own learning curve to find what suits or gels with them, to find their own particular way to develop a trading MO, i have posted thousands of examples with detailed explanations in the charts a lot of it done live as it was traded at the time, FTI taught us about the EMPORER MOTH STORY and wanted us to help but without damaging anyone's own journey into the trading world by not either forcing our own opinions on them about trading or by not letting us take over their personal development and breaking the confines that we must all go through to emerge out the other side as a trader that understands why we must go through the hard parts to get to the good parts via our own struggles to break out and be able to fly efficiently to avoid getting killed on the front of the oncoming train.
i will still be around and anyone who wants to keep in contact or ask questions is welcome too, i do not want to post on any other threads, i do not do any other type of social media, i find it is not good (for me anyway) as i can not be bothered to deal with the trolls and idiots that just want to disrupt or destroy something because only their opinion and self ego matters, being about the same age as you and not being very well means i do not like to waste my time getting involved in these types of things, it is a shame that these types of people overcloud the few that are actually trying to really help or trying to learn, they not only hinder their own life's fulfilment but because of their own lack of self worth purposely interfere in a bad way on publicly open sources that should be helping better other people lives and experiences, hence why i only post on my thread now FTI is no longer around. as our friend FTI said 'opinions are like arseholes, everyone has one'.

i will catch up with you Terry i have just been either busy or not well for a while now, you take care my friend and happy trading.

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here is a good video i found recently, i find it a good explanation of some of all of our own limitations in perceiving what is real and what we actually see and think.

Thanks Phil, not been too well myself these last 2wks. Got Flu. I will be posting less and less on FF. just dont see much point tbh. take care pal and do keep in touch

Phil13,
I have been following your input from TAF, please can you help me to answer the following questions:
1. How do you consider volatility in applying skew on an impulse leg?
2. How do you protect yourself against a sudden spike unrelated to any economic calendar like the U/J spike yesterday by 15.00hrs GMT?
Sutiv

Hi Sutiv and welcome.

sorry for the late response but i only look in here once every week or two now.

both of your questions are related to account protection..rules No.1, 2 and 3 that FTI constantly spoke to us about, making money in anything involves losses at times, the only way to deal with this is via a good and well tested money management plan, the charts and moves are a complex connection of everything at that point in time you are looking at it, Fti also said to avoid highly manipulated pairs and also to avoid pairs when central banks are in the market, the spike you are talking about will be different on most brokers platforms as they all have their own agends and different big pools of money sitting at different levels, this understanding lead me to come to the conclusion that money management is way above the thing of 'reading candles/bars' in importance, do not get me wrong there is some value in bar reading for direction but only when it does things we can recognise from past experience, perception of the now and our gut feeling, the higher frames provide us with 'suspected' direction and must be checked regulary as they are (or seem to be) more reliable for this purpose, this allows us to hit that direction with more confidence and possibly trade counter but with high caution as a basic rule, you can find a lot that i have wrote and explored live from post 500 onward, it may help you understand what i am try to explain here in an attempt to answer your questions. one new (or fairly recent) tool that has been given to us by the new trading regulations for private traders is the (you can not lose any more money than you have in your account), so this means non registered professionals have been given a get out of jail free card, if a huge move was to go against you suddenly, this can be exploited by the trader if he/she only always keeps the minimal amount of money in the account that you need to trade for that day, but is just one way of many ways that we can help protect our account. feel free to ask about anything i am not explaining clearly, but as i said from post 500 there are much more in depth and detailed posts that may help.
Phil.

these 2 videos below raise some very interesting questions about trading and what goes on around us...