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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,701
  • Jul 10, 2007 8:07pm Jul 10, 2007 8:07pm
Hello Phil and others...,

This is my very first post.
I joined this forum coz of Phil's System that amaze me.

I have a question.
Maybe Phil or u guys could help me?

I recently trade in USD JPY, yesterday, The price crossing 200MA, which Phil ever said that if the price go through 200MA, there is a big guy involve at that movement.

So, if the price go through 200MA, it's definitely will fall or up so far ?

Or i keep get my position according to Phil's ?

Because, after the price through 200MA, until now, it already down almost 150 pips.

Actually, just right before the price go through 200MA, the MACD give signal to enter short, buy when that signal appear, i was in sick and can't take my eyes into the charts. I was too late, so i'm afraid to enter.

Any comment would be appreciate.
Thanks a lot...
  • #5,702
  • Jul 10, 2007 8:16pm Jul 10, 2007 8:16pm
Quoting Palmer
Clean your room up? What do you mean?

Anyone heard from Donna or Tamkras???
Hi Palmer!

Took a bit of a mini-break from the market....Had to get my "fire clearing" done (I'm a great dirt farmer thanks to the fire regs in my town...can pull plants like nobody's biz. but try to get them to grow back...Yikes!!). Spent the last week tethered to the hill, pulling everything in sight! My neighborhood is very paranoid of fire since it experienced the most devestating urban fire in US history about 15 years ago. Bet you wish I was still tethered to the hill, eh?

Hope you made lots of pips over the last few days!

Donna
  • #5,703
  • Jul 10, 2007 9:10pm Jul 10, 2007 9:10pm
Quoting Ryurina
Hello Phil and others...,

This is my very first post.
I joined this forum coz of Phil's System that amaze me.

I have a question.
Maybe Phil or u guys could help me?

I recently trade in USD JPY, yesterday, The price crossing 200MA, which Phil ever said that if the price go through 200MA, there is a big guy involve at that movement.

So, if the price go through 200MA, it's definitely will fall or up so far ?

Or i keep get my position according to Phil's ?

Because, after the price through 200MA, until now, it already down almost 150 pips.

Actually, just right before the price go through 200MA, the MACD give signal to enter short, buy when that signal appear, i was in sick and can't take my eyes into the charts. I was too late, so i'm afraid to enter.

Any comment would be appreciate.
Thanks a lot...
Hi Ryurina,

I'm not sure I'm understanding your post. Are you in a short position at the moment? If so, & if you are trading multi lots, I would take some profit and protect some by moving my stop. The price has gone through the 200 and has hit the 365. This is a very important level. My MACD is still showing short, but I would expect a retrace to the 200ish level. If you are not already in a position, I think it is a bad idea to enter now. Wait for price to retrace w/TC before establishing new short; or wait for a clear indication for establishing a long position.

Whatever you decide to do, let the market show you it's hand first. Don't chase this move. The BOJ is about to meet re:rates -- this may have been a sell off in advance of the meeting and the carry may resume again later in the week. Just look for a clear indication of price level with your signal before establishing any new positions. Personally, I'm sitting out of new trades until London comes on line and shows their hand.

Either way -- If you have a position open, manage your trade and protect most of your profit. I'd bet that some players are thinking JPY is a good buying opp. and may establish some new positions.

Hope this answered your questions.

Pips
  • #5,704
  • Jul 11, 2007 3:00am Jul 11, 2007 3:00am
On EU H4 chart,,,I saw Selling signal today,, there is a pin bar and the MACD at turning down point
  • #5,705
  • Jul 11, 2007 4:03am Jul 11, 2007 4:03am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Ryurina,

I'm not sure I'm understanding your post. Are you in a short position at the moment? If so, & if you are trading multi lots, I would take some profit and protect some by moving my stop. The price has gone through the 200 and has hit the 365. This is a very important level. My MACD is still showing short, but I would expect a retrace to the 200ish level. If you are not already in a position, I think it is a bad idea to enter now. Wait for price to retrace w/TC before establishing new short; or wait for a clear indication for establishing a long position.

Whatever you decide to do, let the market show you it's hand first. Don't chase this move. The BOJ is about to meet re:rates -- this may have been a sell off in advance of the meeting and the carry may resume again later in the week. Just look for a clear indication of price level with your signal before establishing any new positions. Personally, I'm sitting out of new trades until London comes on line and shows their hand.

Either way -- If you have a position open, manage your trade and protect most of your profit. I'd bet that some players are thinking JPY is a good buying opp. and may establish some new positions.

Hope this answered your questions.

Pips

Thanks Pips,

I don' t have a position open, and i'll wait a clear sign to go long...
I prefer go long than short, coz carry trade...
But, if there is TC, i would go short, with limited TP, hehehe...

Thanks
  • #5,706
  • Jul 11, 2007 4:19am Jul 11, 2007 4:19am
I don't think that's a propper pin bar, the open and close of a pin bar need to be within the range of the previous bar, the MACD is giving a nice turn though, and it seems to be in the resistance area of the long term daily trend, but it has a little more room to go upwards before the correction.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1184145474
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,707
  • Jul 11, 2007 6:03am Jul 11, 2007 6:03am
Quoting Aristo
On EU H4 chart,,,I saw Selling signal today,, there is a pin bar and the MACD at turning down point
Hello there. You have to be caeful about just taking the signals. Like Kash pointed aout, according to trend lines there is room to go up. also with such a strong move up you have to really plan you counter trend trade. Make sure your R:R is good enough. Like In the GBP/USD there was a Round top signal yesterday at 20:00 candle( which is considered a signal to sell) , but the next two bars are Trend continuation( signal to buy).
I wish you lots of pips. Good Luck and just be careful .
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,708
  • Edited 10:22am Jul 11, 2007 6:10am | Edited 10:22am
...its nice work ..from everyone who regulary submit this thread....
I study this thread about 10 days but unfortunaly english is not my native language but I try to listen every Phillips wrap up .If I good undernstood 10.7.2007 entry 4H in Euro was on the TC pattern on close price candle 8-12 oclock ?? and first TP was on strong weekly resistance about 1,3680 ??? and second TP for second lot ....?? What do you think..??
and on hourly chart enter on the close candle 9-10 oclock ????...but there is no TC pattern ...please please give me somebody more experienced response ..is very important for me thank a lot in advance
TIME is GMT+2
  • #5,709
  • Jul 11, 2007 9:31am Jul 11, 2007 9:31am
Quoting pips4uandme
To Ira, Ellipses, Bil2205 MD27, Mister Ed, Digital Dean:

This is to commend you all on the posts regarding the frustrations of trading and the evolution of trader's psychology! What great posts!! You would be hard pressed not to find a trader who hasn't gone through exactly the same emotions and frustrations! Funny how similar the path to trading well is! & it is so interesting how the journey to obtain technical prowess teaches us about ourselves as people. The growth of self occurs in conjunction with the growth of trading ability. Truly an amazing journey of self-discovery along with the means of self-reliance. & the best part, is the journey to self doesn't end. The market continually makes you look within yourself to see your strengths and weaknessess and (hopefully) makes you a stronger, kinder, more patient and disciplined person.

Thanks for sharing your feelings and discoveries! You guys are all on the path to greatness!!
Hi Pips,

It is due to people like you that this thread is so fine, and therefore we don't mind sharing our feelings.

We can only thank Phillip (again, and again, and again...) and other fine traders like your self.

I sure hope i'm on that path you mention I'll let you know in a few months time.

MD
  • #5,710
  • Jul 11, 2007 9:55am Jul 11, 2007 9:55am
Quoting MD27
Hi Pips,

It is due to people like you that this thread is so fine, and therefore we don't mind sharing our feelings.

We can only thank Phillip (again, and again, and again...) and other fine traders like your self.

I sure hope i'm on that path you mention I'll let you know in a few months time.

MD
Thanks for the encouragement. I giving myself 5yrs. Going to be 1 yr old soon in forex. Still loads of bad habits to overcome, but i be there eventually .

thanks again,
  • #5,711
  • Edited 11:09am Jul 11, 2007 10:54am | Edited 11:09am
The weekly chart shows tp resistance. I dont say go short but if MACD give a chance to go short try to stay in the trade as long as possible as it can come down 400pips to 21EMA on weekly graph. Give your position a chance to go withe the run if it runs down and get to BE to protect your position. This is only my opinion and no advice.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,712
  • Jul 11, 2007 2:50pm Jul 11, 2007 2:50pm
Hi Friends,

I have been following the thread for a while but I haven't posted yet. I wanted to throw my hat in the ring on this one because I think the eur/usd could be a similar setup as the gbp/usd.

Here is my weekly, let me know what you think.

Phillip, a million thanks to you and all the work you have done for us!

jhop
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,713
  • Jul 11, 2007 7:19pm Jul 11, 2007 7:19pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
The weekly chart shows tp resistance. I dont say go short but if MACD give a chance to go short try to stay in the trade as long as possible as it can come down 400pips to 21EMA on weekly graph. Give your position a chance to go withe the run if it runs down and get to BE to protect your position. This is only my opinion and no advice.

Hi Philip,

I take the signal to go short last night.

Entry at 2.0328
SL at 2.0365
TP at 2.0303

I usually move my stoploss to BE when it moves 10 pips away from my entry price.

I'll take your opinion, thanks for your opinion.
It courage me to give the profit runs, i usually scare when i'm floating. I tend to close position as soon as possible, and made myself lost chance of getting profit a lot of pips.
  • #5,714
  • Jul 11, 2007 7:44pm Jul 11, 2007 7:44pm
Could anybody tell me how to join the Skype chat room?

Thanks a lot...
  • #5,715
  • Jul 12, 2007 12:59am Jul 12, 2007 12:59am
Quoting Ryurina
Could anybody tell me how to join the Skype chat room?

Thanks a lot...
Ryurina,

Here is the link. You would need to download skype then click on the link to join.

http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=5368

regards
  • #5,716
  • Jul 12, 2007 1:08am Jul 12, 2007 1:08am
Hi Phillip and all,

Here is my interpretation of the EUR/USD Chart.
I see it as range trading till Monday, so I am considering a long position at 1.3740 support with target set at 1.3781 resistance, stop-loss at 1.3730.
Of course, to wait for MACD signal for good entry ya.

Hope to have inputs from you and all.

Thank you!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,717
  • Jul 12, 2007 2:00am Jul 12, 2007 2:00am
I see that u see the MAs heading up sgfxtrader,, but I saw the MACD sloping down meaning it's a correction time,, don't you think so?
  • #5,718
  • Jul 12, 2007 2:42am Jul 12, 2007 2:42am
Quoting Aristo
I see that u see the MAs heading up sgfxtrader,, but I saw the MACD sloping down meaning it's a correction time,, don't you think so?
Hi Aristo,

Yup, the MA is up and the current trend is also up. Though the current price level seem to be in trade range, the "mood" of the week is on up trend.

I don't deny that MACD is sloping down, but to trade counter-trend is too risky for me. What I understand is MACD is a momentum signal or 'emotional signal'... which don't work very well in trending but in trading ranges.

I do felt tempted to sell... but the risk is too high at the moment.
a. Counter-Trend trade
b. Counter a Big Body Candlestick on 10 Jul, daily chart

In fact, I could long at 1.3757 as I have seen a double bottom on previous 2 bars and a stop-loss below the double bottom.
So... My push-pull factors to consider a long trade.
+ Double Bottom on previous 2 bars
+ Up trend is in tact
+ Current Price is near weekly upper support.
+ High Volume still transacted for past 2 days.

So I'm waiting for a MACD confirmation (reversal from down) for a trade now.

Well... Let the market speaks to us ya...
Hope others can share how to consider a trade ya.
  • #5,719
  • Jul 12, 2007 3:06am Jul 12, 2007 3:06am
thanks for replying sgfxtrader,, very detail,, I have still got to learn alot
  • #5,720
  • Jul 12, 2007 4:45am Jul 12, 2007 4:45am
hi every1,

Any signal today?
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