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vsa with Malcolm

  • #36,241
  • Jun 22, 2024 12:18pm Jun 22, 2024 12:18pm
[quote=starpyramid7;14908923]]I'm having an issue with GBPAUD, I was wondering if anyone would help me with an analysis on what has transpired so far. From my Analysis on the 4hrs and 1hr before London open it had a bullish background but everything headed south from the beginning of the London session and I can't really place where the market and volume changed hands from a bullish back ground to a bearish background on 4hrs and 1hr. Could someone point out where that happened for study purpose? Thank you

. I followed your quest very well and am pretty sure you will have looked for answers ,but such reasonable answers were not coming I have a clue that will.put the question to a.stop If you have more questions get back to me..
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BpN...w?usp=drivesdk
  • #36,242
  • Jun 22, 2024 12:31pm Jun 22, 2024 12:31pm
Quoting starpyramid7
Quoting starpyramid7
]I'm having an issue with GBPAUD, I was wondering if anyone would help me with an analysis on what has transpired so far. From my Analysis on the 4hrs and 1hr before London open it had a bullish background but everything headed south from the beginning of the London session and I can't really place where the market and volume changed hands from a bullish back ground to a bearish background on 4hrs and 1hr. Could someone point out where that happened for study purpose? Thank you . I followed your quest very well and am
...
You are drudging up a question from 8 months ago, and you didn't correctly quote the user, so he won't be notified that you responded to him.
Also, instead of sharing your insights like everyone else is doing in the thread, you drop 'clues' and try to force people to DM you for info.

Lastly, your 'clue' is just a screenshot from Anna Coulling's book
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If you have insights or theories that are related to volume spread analysis, feel free to share w/ the class. If you are trying to get people to DM you, please start your own thread
  • #36,243
  • Jul 1, 2024 8:15am Jul 1, 2024 8:15am
Picked up GBPCAD today in Asia, super obvious trade with a 2 bar reversal and a test.

Just looking at H4, think I might and hold it to see if the trade will go anywhere, the last 6 trading days looking like accumulation. June 27th, there was a bit of weakness but price ignored it.
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  • #36,244
  • Jul 1, 2024 10:21am Jul 1, 2024 10:21am
This is annoying, but what can you do?

We have a widespread up bar closing on the highs for June 28th, price continued to push higher than the high of the widespread bar as well as the mid point of the bar was defended multiple times. If price is struggling to break the mid point of a wide spread up bar, is it really weak?

Its a little misleading though with the highest volume on the high looking bearish, but the short was risky with price testing the mid point of the widespread up bar multiple times on the 28th. Some of Toms video's he would remind people of the S in VSA stands for spread, which means you can't ignore widespread bars and narrowspread bars.
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  • #36,245
  • Jul 2, 2024 12:34pm Jul 2, 2024 12:34pm
Couple of trades, first trade I shouldn't have taken due to daily making HHs/HLs. One of the dangerous things in trading is that when you make a mistake it doesn't necessarily mean a loss, which in turn gives you a bit of confidence to make that mistake again.

Right now daily looks like an inside bar, if it closes and fails to make a new HH/HL then a short would be ok. Forex doesn't trend as much as other markets, but when it does trend, it moves like a freight train.

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A better trade on AJ, I broke even too soon though, entry was up a bit and I went BE with Powells speech.

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  • #36,246
  • Jul 3, 2024 2:40am Jul 3, 2024 2:40am
Gold @ interesting level,
If it holds 2331 & 2336, we are due for a strong UP move soon.
Will post detailed analysis in next post
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,247
  • Jul 3, 2024 3:13am Jul 3, 2024 3:13am
Quoting bluesoul
Gold @ interesting level, If it holds 2331 & 2336, we are due for a strong UP move soon. Will post detailed analysis in next post
Supply Absorption at 2345
Now if it holds 2345, 1st target is 2354
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,248
  • Jul 3, 2024 7:39am Jul 3, 2024 7:39am
Quoting bluesoul
{quote} Supply Absorption at 2345 Now if it holds 2345, 1st target is 2354
TP Hit, out with 2354 on my major trade, + few scalps.
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,249
  • Jul 3, 2024 7:49am Jul 3, 2024 7:49am
Quoting bluesoul
{quote} TP Hit, out with 2354 on my major trade, + few scalps.
Re-Entry @ 2345 based on retest and confirmation only, (means if it holds)
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,250
  • Jul 3, 2024 8:22am Jul 3, 2024 8:22am
Quoting bluesoul
Gold @ interesting level, If it holds 2331 & 2336, we are due for a strong UP move soon. Will post detailed analysis in next post
Here is the analysis.
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in H4 Chart you can see HVZ / High value are marked blue, where price had been moving around on 1st july and 2nd july.
Also we have already tested & retested Daily Support Level.

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M30 chart attached for clarity to show Same high value are recent price action.

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Ultra High Volume Down bars, without result, and immediate rejection from short term support level.
And this is happening in long term high volume zone.

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Now in Volume Delta, Down bars on both days were actually demand bars, means there was more buying than selling (same concept from VSA, but i am using an indicator for confirmation).
So as the market opened today, i placed a long for 2354 target., Closed it Near London open, but took it again when price returned and confirmed. So in total the major trade gave 22 points + few scalps along the way.
Now i have limit order at 2345 for 2360 target, but i am cautious about it as FOMC is due, still it can work, if trade taken after confirmation.
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,251
  • Jul 3, 2024 8:26am Jul 3, 2024 8:26am
Quoting bluesoul
{quote} TP Hit, out with 2354 on my major trade, + few scalps.
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here is the Trades Snapshot.
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,252
  • Jul 3, 2024 8:31am Jul 3, 2024 8:31am
Nasdaq Potential Long, @ 20,000 or @ 19925 both areas
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Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,253
  • Jul 3, 2024 8:32am Jul 3, 2024 8:32am
Quoting bluesoul
Nasdaq Potential Long, @ 20,000 or @ 19925 both areas{image}
Target 20150
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,254
  • Jul 3, 2024 10:25am Jul 3, 2024 10:25am
Quoting bluesoul
{quote} Target 20150
Target 1 20150
Target 2 20225
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On 1st July Price held major support which is also high value area from since mid June, i.e after a strong down bar at the bottom of chart, price reversed and stayed above next value area.
on 2nd July there is no supply just test of recent value area breakout and strong demand in delta.
today also we see just news bar, high volume but weak supply delta, which is also test of recent high of 1st July.
on M5 and M15, bought the breakouts of short term supply bars(value area again)
Value area is same as High volume Zone (HVZ).

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M15 trade setup,
and entries on M5
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,255
  • Jul 3, 2024 10:43am Jul 3, 2024 10:43am
Quoting bluesoul
{quote} Target 1 20150 Target 2 20225 {image} On 1st July Price held major support which is also high value area from since mid June, i.e after a strong down bar at the bottom of chart, price reversed and stayed above next value area. on 2nd July there is no supply just test of recent value area breakout and strong demand in delta. today also we see just news bar, high volume but weak supply delta, which is also test of recent high of 1st July. on M5 and M15, bought the breakouts of short term supply bars(value area again) Value area is same as...
60% Position closed 20130.
Rest trailing below M5 Value Areas. Lets see if it completes Day range then Target 2 should hit.
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Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,256
  • Jul 3, 2024 10:50am Jul 3, 2024 10:50am
Quoting bluesoul
{quote} Now i have limit order at 2345 for 2360 target, but i am cautious about it as FOMC is due, still it can work, if trade taken after confirmation.
Gold Returned from 2347, without hitting my limit order. also hit the TP level, but i was not in it. Still a good day.
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Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,257
  • Jul 3, 2024 11:37am Jul 3, 2024 11:37am
Quoting bluesoul
{quote} 60% Position closed 20130. Rest trailing below M5 Value Areas. Lets see if it completes Day range then Target 2 should hit.{image}
Closed 20% @ 20175 and 20% @ 20200 after seeing the sign of weakness on smaller timeframe.
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2nd highest demand delta of day on M5 appeared at top, after 4 consecutive reducing demand bars(reducing delta, same concept as reducing volume).
Possibly this could be the top for now.
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,258
  • Edited 3:57am Jul 6, 2024 2:48am | Edited 3:57am
There are two types of waiting periods in day trading.
1. Waiting for the trade
2. Waiting in the trade

And its always better to wait for the trade, doesn't matter how strong your psychological development has been, you can not deny the subconscious part of your brain, where it keep telling you that your money is on he line.

So depending on your personality type, in each trade setup there are mostly two types of entries, in all flavors of VSA as well. Aggressive and Conservative.
Aggressive entry sometimes turns out to be quick gainer. And conservative entry often turns out to be a quick gainer. Interesting :-). e.g. if you enter on the first breakout of high volume bar in the accumulation or distribution range, that's aggressive entry (as per Malcolm) and if you wait for test and enter on the breakout of same bar, or breakout of the recent high or low of the aggressive entry bar that's conservative entry.
And I have found that conservative entry often turns out to be quick gainer. Specially if you trade within 2 hours of Europe or USA open.
Hence,
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,259
  • Jul 6, 2024 3:04am Jul 6, 2024 3:04am
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GOLD
Yesterday's highs of first two minutes of news bar marked with red horizontal lines.
Made 45 Points with scalps / 10 Positions, and all safe entries.

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Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,260
  • Jul 6, 2024 3:24am Jul 6, 2024 3:24am
Quoting bluesoul
Gold @ interesting level, If it holds 2331 & 2336, we are due for a strong UP move soon. Will post detailed analysis in next post
This post was near 2336 area.
To brag about my analysis, (still credit goes to Malcom, and Tom)

And now
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And next levels are 2380-2385 Demand area if it holds its bullish.
If it goes below this 2370 is the next stop. a test of 2370 and reversal to upside is also possible, conservative approach will be to wait for it come back to 2380 area and look for setup in that area for longs.
below 2370 a reversal back to 2300 and even a shakeout below it is possible.
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
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