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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #241
  • Jul 9, 2007 10:21am Jul 9, 2007 10:21am
Quoting luqmanz
One way to see the trend ...
Look at
300 candles in daily charts.
300 candles in 4 hour charts.
Get a 5 year-old to look at it. You will see the direction.
Hi luqmanz,


Yep. The 5 year old will get it correct everytime.


.
  • #242
  • Jul 10, 2007 1:21am Jul 10, 2007 1:21am
Quoting jacko
Hi Quickdraw,

Yes, 300 candles / bars works for me. It gives a decent perspective of the market.


.
Thanks Jacko. I wasn't sure because on another thread here at forex factory ("kharvell's Trades") the author of that thread recommends 100 candles/bars on a chart to find the trend using your strategy. That is a huge difference from the 300 candles you recommend. I think the 300 candles/bars makes more sense.
"Trading is a mental sport." - Ziad Masri
  • #243
  • Jul 10, 2007 8:27pm Jul 10, 2007 8:27pm
Quoting jacko
Hi gaguil,

After bottoming out just below 1.3300 (1.3262) we are now on our way through the major resistance of 1.3666 to an initial target of 1.4500.

I think that a major sell-off of the USD is commencing / is in progress. I think it will accelerate in the medium term.

Having said that, make sure that you minimise your drawdowns. But don't lose sight of the long term trend.

But I could be wwwwrong...

See http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=28512&page=5


.

The post above was posted on 07-02-07,

I think that the major sell off in the USD against all currencies is destined to continue in the longer term.

There will be corrections but they will be relatively shallow.

First target is 1.45


.
  • #244
  • Jul 10, 2007 8:54pm Jul 10, 2007 8:54pm
Quoting jacko
The post above was posted on 07-02-07,

I think that the major sell off in the USD against all currencies is destined to continue in the longer term.

There will be corrections but they will be relatively shallow.

First target is 1.45


.
Jacko,
Do you believe the Sell Off is for economic reasons or political reasons?
Not that it matters, as long as we are trading the right direction, but just curious as to you opinion.
Thanks,
Stan
  • #245
  • Jul 10, 2007 9:45pm Jul 10, 2007 9:45pm
Hi Jacko....Could you please give an idea of what the corrections might be like? Do you have a target date for 1.45....it sounds so far away....thanks for all the help and insight you provide....Susan
  • #246
  • Jul 10, 2007 10:38pm Jul 10, 2007 10:38pm
Hello Jako,

Just wanted to ask you a question:

Once you enter in the direction of the long term trend, do you dissolve your positions on significant rallies, and add on pullbacks or do you just keep on adding until your long term target is met?

Thanks for the light in darkness!
  • #247
  • Jul 10, 2007 10:50pm Jul 10, 2007 10:50pm
Quoting FXHolic
Hello Jako,

Just wanted to ask you a question:

Once you enter in the direction of the long term trend, do you dissolve your positions on significant rallies, and add on pullbacks or do you just keep on adding until your long term target is met?

Thanks for the light in darkness!
Jacko uses trailing stop of 50 pips once he took a trade.

Anyone new to this thread, please read the first page of this thread. The method is there. It didn't change AFAIK.
  • #248
  • Jul 11, 2007 12:38am Jul 11, 2007 12:38am
Quoting luqmanz
Jacko uses trailing stop of 50 pips once he took a trade.

Anyone new to this thread, please read the first page of this thread. The method is there. It didn't change AFAIK.
Dude,
AFAIK ? Wassat?
  • #249
  • Jul 11, 2007 12:41am Jul 11, 2007 12:41am
Quoting newbietrader101
Dude,
AFAIK ? Wassat?
As far as i know
  • #250
  • Jul 11, 2007 12:43am Jul 11, 2007 12:43am
Quoting mbqb11
As far as i know
Cool
  • #251
  • Jul 11, 2007 12:59am Jul 11, 2007 12:59am
Quoting jacko
The post above was posted on 07-02-07,

I think that the major sell off in the USD against all currencies is destined to continue in the longer term.

There will be corrections but they will be relatively shallow.

First target is 1.45


.
I love the smell of pips, profits and money.
  • #252
  • Jul 11, 2007 1:35am Jul 11, 2007 1:35am
Hi Jacko

I am new to this forum. I've been trying to catch up on all the readings. I've been through so many threads, and a particular few caught my attention, we "clicked". I like your style.

What do you thinking of shorting the Euro now ? For a 100 pip profit target at around 1.3650 .

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1184135698
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily euro.jpg Size: 64 KB
  • #253
  • Jul 11, 2007 7:51am Jul 11, 2007 7:51am
Quoting luqmanz
Jacko uses trailing stop of 50 pips once he took a trade.

Anyone new to this thread, please read the first page of this thread. The method is there. It didn't change AFAIK.
Thanks for the reply luqmanz.
  • #254
  • Jul 11, 2007 9:13am Jul 11, 2007 9:13am
Quoting Kash
Hi Jacko

I am new to this forum. I've been trying to catch up on all the readings. I've been through so many threads, and a particular few caught my attention, we "clicked". I like your style.

What do you thinking of shorting the Euro now ? For a 100 pip profit target at around 1.3650 .

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1184135698
Kash, If you want to follow Jacko's words of wisdom, don't counter trend trade, only trade with respect to the large trend. If you feel that it is a potentialy good trade then do it. Your risk WILL be greater.............have a good stop in place......... Take Care Rsq955
  • #255
  • Edited 10:48am Jul 11, 2007 10:03am | Edited 10:48am
Quoting Stan
Jacko,
Do you believe the Sell Off is for economic reasons or political reasons?
Not that it matters, as long as we are trading the right direction, but just curious as to you opinion.
Thanks,
Stan
Hi Stan,

1. I think that the Fed is trying to reduce the US debt to the worlds Central Banks because it was losing enormous amounts of credibility.

2. Equally, the worlds Central Banks are trying to convert their credits to other currencies at the highest US dollar value possible.
This has caused a minor "rush to the door" to get out of US dollars by all the Central Banks.



Having said all that, the Fed / Central Banks' actions FAR OUTWEIGH anything else that anyone says is affecting the dollar. (eg housing starts, NFPs etc).
The Fed / Central Banks are all trying to reduce the indebtedness of the US. Until that happens the USD will continue to fall over the medium / long term. (Remember, the US is one Trillion in debt and it is STILL increasing...) In other words, even with the current decrease in the value of the USD, the monthly indebtedness STILL keeps increasing.

Until the USD gets into some form of "balance" with other countries, the currency will continue to decline. And one Trillion dollars is a lot of dollars !!!


However...remember this....

Quote
Originally posted by Jacko on 04-27-07

Fundamentals are for understanding the "big Picture", but charts are used for trading.
I am a longer term trader than most traders here and so I am more "fundamentals-aware" lately. I suppose I just want to know why a market is trending in a certain direction

The longer the time frame, the more you need to be aware of the fundamentals...but I always trade off the charts.

.
  • #256
  • Jul 11, 2007 10:13am Jul 11, 2007 10:13am
Quoting joiedevivre
Hi Jacko....Could you please give an idea of what the corrections might be like? Do you have a target date for 1.45....it sounds so far away....thanks for all the help and insight you provide....Susan
Hi joiedevivre

If I had crystal balls, I would be VERY careful when I sat down.

what the corrections might be like?
150 - 200 pips max


Do you have a target date for 1.45....it sounds so far away
Within 12 months ?? Maybe within 6 months?? Depends on whether any Central Banks start to get greedy / or panic and try to get out quicker at these levels rather than say Euro 1.4500.

But it WILL go there...1.4500 (and even higher) .....it is just the time frame that it will take to get there.


The risk of attempting to short this market is waaaay to high for the potential rewards.


But then again, I could be wwwwwrong !!!!


.
  • #257
  • Jul 11, 2007 10:23am Jul 11, 2007 10:23am
Quoting Kash
Hi Jacko

I am new to this forum. I've been trying to catch up on all the readings. I've been through so many threads, and a particular few caught my attention, we "clicked". I like your style.

What do you thinking of shorting the Euro now ? For a 100 pip profit target at around 1.3650 .

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1184135698
Hi Kash,

What do you thinking of shorting the Euro now ?
Risky. It will probably go there, but is it worth the risk? As Clint Eastwood said in the movie "Dirty Harry"...... "Are you feeling lucky?"

For a 100 pip profit target at around 1.3650 .
The risk of attempting to short this market is waaaay to high for the potential rewards.


But then again, I could be wwwwwrong !!!!


.
  • #258
  • Edited 10:49am Jul 11, 2007 10:35am | Edited 10:49am
Quoting FXHolic
Hello Jako,

Just wanted to ask you a question:

Once you enter in the direction of the long term trend, do you dissolve your positions on significant rallies, and add on pullbacks or do you just keep on adding until your long term target is met?

Thanks for the light in darkness!
Hi FXHolic,

For a little while now, I have been setting up parallel accounts which are strictly "buy and hold" positions. These are in addition to my "trading accounts".

I had been waiting for a significant retracement before establishing the parallel accounts, and the May till mid June retracement was the one I had been looking for. This was a BIG punt that 1.3300 (approx) was going to be the bottom. I have been adding more positions, but at a reducing rate since mid-late June.


.
  • #259
  • Jul 11, 2007 10:42am Jul 11, 2007 10:42am
Quoting jacko
Hi FXHolic,

For a little while now, I have been setting up parallel accounts which are strictly "buy and hold" positions. These are in addition to my "trading accounts".

I had been waiting for a significant retracement before establishing the parallel accounts, and the May till mid June retracement was the one I had been looking for. This was a BIG punt that 1.3300 (approx) was going to be the bottom. I have been adding more positions, but at a reducing rate since mid-late June.


.

The major difference between my "buy and hold" accounts and my "trading accounts" is that the "buy and holds" have bigger SL limits.

I am hoping to get to the stage that my trading will gradually move more into "buy and hold" accounts and I will only trade maybe once every month or two.



But then again, I could be wwwwwrong !!!! And I could change my mind !!!


.
  • #260
  • Jul 11, 2007 12:38pm Jul 11, 2007 12:38pm
Jacko,

With your longer term approach, are you trading other pairs that sweeten the pot with positive rollover? The only negative with EUR/USD in an uptrend is the rollover ding at the end of the trading day for longer term traders. GBP pairs would seem the likely choice.

What are your thoughts?

Also, can you give a hint on how you forecast EUR/USD reaching 1.4500 eventually?

Danke
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