- #199,602
- Jun 29, 2024 1:46am Jun 29, 2024 1:46am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,111 Posts | Online Now
Quick DAILY Outlook for Monday
- 5 days ago, the bearish trendline was broken and bulls allowed bears to retest previous lows. (Line A)
- Now the second line (B) is also broken via the candle close from Friday.
- However, since another flat trendline acts as extra resistance, we now have a mini pocket where market still has to decide where to go.
- For bulls to continue higher, they must break above 1.0733 area resistance. Did not happen yet, so we can't be sure what happens there!
- For bears to continue lower, a lot more work has to be done: They surely have to break below 1.0690 but that is not enough. A break below 1.0670 is the only chance to achieve new lows. Can they do it? Again: we can't be sure yet.
- How can we trade this? Well, in limbo situations like this it is best to follow momentum. Bulls have the upper hand based on intraday momentum. So we must patiently wait until bulls are done. Maybe they will never stop. Maybe they will give up on Monday or Tuesday. The big trend is down, so what bulls are doing right now is swimming against the stream. Not an easy job. I benefit from long scalpers during this period, but I know in the back of my head that bears could come in hot. So I might stop trading on Monday. Maybe I try to read micro movements on M15 and H1 to catch early signs of direction. We have to be careful folks...
Anyway, that's my two cents for now...
Enjoy your weekends my friends... We hopefully meet again on Monday...
Cheers 
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #199,606
- Jun 29, 2024 7:52am Jun 29, 2024 7:52am
- Joined Sep 2015 | Status: ob-la-di, ob-la-da, life goes on... | 4,499 Posts
While the ECB has been raising rates, they’ve expressed caution about going too far, which could be viewed as a dovish stance compared to the Fed. That being said, based on my understanding, I believe the ECB might maintain its current policy for the short-term, which could indeed put some bullish pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Based on my analysis and bias... I do believe that the EUR/USD pair could have some short-term bullish potential. The ECB’s policy and potential divergence from the Fed’s more aggressive stance could put upward pressure on...
When navigating the sometimes stressful world of trading, always remember to keep things light and have fun. After all, life’s a journey, not a destination... or should I say a long position and not a short one!
Have a nice weekend!
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
- #199,607
- Jun 29, 2024 8:16am Jun 29, 2024 8:16am
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Trader | 8,020 Posts
short trump and go long the deepstate
- #199,611
- Jun 29, 2024 12:22pm Jun 29, 2024 12:22pm
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Trader | 8,020 Posts
{quote} Would you like to share your thoughts on how these liberals strengthen the dollar??? By increasing interest rates or they did something magical ?
there's more to the dollar than just interest rates. right now we've pivoted from rates having an outsize influence on the dollar to a soft landing on the economy.. so for the past month you've prolly noticed EU not necessarily reacting the way it ought to on inflation news releases like ppi and cpi...cause its more concerned about GDP and jobs instead of inflation
in America republicans have a pathological desire to cut taxes on the rich which causes the debt to spiral...with reagan,bush and trump they all cut taxes and the dollar kept falling among other reasons...clinton and obama raised taxes and had a great economy and surplus budget which helped the dollar go up..there were examples I pointed out months ago where rate cuts caused the dollar to go up during clintons presidency...democrats raise taxes that the republicans cut so that more than anything even rates causes the dollar to go up...check the feds rate cuts during clintons presidency and their mild effect on the greenback...if you look thru my charts from few months ago I made post about that... just click the image link in my profile
just look what liz truss did to the pound 2 years ago when she announced tax cuts in sept 2022...every currency including the euro fell and had to be saved with coordinated interventions from BOJ,BOE,ECB and even the fed after her mini budget announcement
ill be happy to discuss more about this in the cable thread cause I had some more to say about the biden/trump debate Thursday if you like cause ATA will kick us out of here if we talk about anything other than the euro LOL
short trump and go long the deepstate
- #199,613
- Jun 29, 2024 3:23pm Jun 29, 2024 3:23pm
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,111 Posts | Online Now
{quote} there's more to the dollar than just interest rates. right now we've pivoted from rates having an outsize influence on the dollar to a soft landing on the economy.. so for the past month you've prolly noticed EU not necessarily reacting the way it ought to on inflation news releases like ppi and cpi...cause its more concerned about GDP and jobs instead of inflation in America republicans have a pathological desire to cut taxes on the rich which causes the debt to spiral...with reagan,bush and trump they all cut taxes and the dollar kept...
Thanks in advance
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #199,614
- Jun 29, 2024 3:25pm Jun 29, 2024 3:25pm
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,111 Posts | Online Now
Newbie here I don't have much experience in Forex but this trading on political risks, should it take place in longer timeframes ? All are bets on instability in the Eurozone, one party vowing to restore Absolutist monarchy or Vichy France, the other to have France join Mercosur and all kinds of pie in the sky stuff ?
Thanks in advance
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #199,615
- Edited 3:47pm Jun 29, 2024 3:34pm | Edited 3:47pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2022 | 2,509 Posts
[quote=Zebi;14916168]{quote} there's more to the dollar than just interest rate
_________ @ Zebi ,study this Chart pic. = just for you m8
_________ @ Zebi ,study this Chart pic. = just for you m8
Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
