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I lost everything! 😭

  • #21
  • Jun 8, 2024 4:43pm Jun 8, 2024 4:43pm
Quoting since80808
{quote} How do you operate in the big news whipsaws situations?
We shall see going forward, thanks for your interest.

I am placing the pending orders manually, so when it get really whipping, there will be no orders nearby until I decide.

In the case of NFP last Friday, the sudden move down was great opportunity, and I went to bed after as it was midnight in Australia.

Here is a small example, the last 3 or 4 winners balanced out by the last loser, a trailing stop is very tricky, too close or too far, what to do?

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The move in Gold was $100 range when ADR(10) is only $30.

I shall forward trade and test a few more weeks; if enough success, perhaps a thread to share experiences if there is enough interest.

Cheers
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #22
  • Jun 8, 2024 6:11pm Jun 8, 2024 6:11pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} We shall see going forward, thanks for your interest. I am placing the pending orders manually, so when it get really whipping, there will be no orders nearby until I decide. In the case of NFP last Friday, the sudden move down was great opportunity, and I went to bed after as it was midnight in Australia. Here is a small example, the last 3 or 4 winners balanced out by the last loser, a trailing stop is very tricky, too close or too far, what to do? {image} The move in Gold was $100 range when ADR(10) is only $30. I shall forward trade...
I wish you could fast-forward your forward testing. Can't wait to see results.
1.02^200
  • #23
  • Jun 8, 2024 6:37pm Jun 8, 2024 6:37pm
Quoting d5400
{quote} I wish you could fast-forward your forward testing. Can't wait to see results.
You never know, this could be the most predictive and appropriate thread title ever!

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #24
  • Jun 8, 2024 10:02pm Jun 8, 2024 10:02pm
Quoting since80808
{quote} How do you operate in the big news whipsaws situations?
The standard advice in trading ES, which we follow, is to stay away from trading 10 minutes before the announcement of any economic news or data and 5 to 10 minutes after.

I believe that in trading you need to forget about trying to guess the direction of the price after the announcement. As you correctly say, the price frequently moves in a whipsaw pattern so it is impossible to predict anything and to trade profitably until the price settles into a familiar pattern.
  • #25
  • Jun 8, 2024 10:27pm Jun 8, 2024 10:27pm
Quoting Eurorally
{quote} Dear BlueKnight: I am sorry about your loss. Respectfully, such a loss could have been avoided and prevented. I do not know what experience you have and how you trade (manually or with some automated aids). I have been at this for eight years this month. After eight years, I feel I know what I am doing. I am trading exclusively S&P 500 futures - e-minies, instrument ES. So I have no experience whatsoever with trading currencies. However, I believe what I say below applies across the board. Here is my five cents: 1. You must trade with a...
I agree I should have set a stop loss. I did not do it because I did not expect that buy order to be executed. But I will do it next time. Of course, the stop will not work very well because price moves too fast, but it should minimize possible (unexpected) losses.

Keep in mind that I did this to reap big profits with a small deposit (50%+). It is not that I trade like this everyday. Normally, I trade low risk with very few (<1%) a day. I know I have a lot to learn. It is the first time I trade on the news.
  • #26
  • Jun 9, 2024 4:00am Jun 9, 2024 4:00am
Quoting Erebus
I am placing the pending orders manually, so when it get really whipping, there will be no orders nearby until I decide.
Excuse me, but I don't understand. How do you decide which direction to set pending orders and how do you operate them during the long news whiplashes?
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #27
  • Jun 9, 2024 5:11am Jun 9, 2024 5:11am
Quoting BlueKnight
OK, this time I had the great idea to trade news after a successful experience on a demo account yesterday. But it went bad, very bad. I did not expect the market to react so aggressively. The volatility was so high that it (unexpectedly) activated one buy position before the big drop. Unfortunately, I did not have enough capital to sustain it. If it was not because of this I would end up in profit (or not). It all happened in one second. Experience for next time. Fortunately, I lost what I could afford to lose. ...

Bro just don't trade during news releases or use very small margin and high risk reward like 1:20. There will be sudden movement if you lose you los not too much but if correct prediction then you reap profits. Separate account is needed
  • #28
  • Jun 9, 2024 10:57am Jun 9, 2024 10:57am
Quoting BlueKnight
{quote} I agree I should have set a stop loss. I did not do it because I did not expect that buy order to be executed. But I will do it next time. Of course, the stop will not work very well because price moves too fast, but it should minimize possible (unexpected) losses. Keep in mind that I did this to reap big profits with a small deposit (50%+). It is not that I trade like this everyday. Normally, I trade low risk with very few (<1%) a day. I know I have a lot to learn. It is the first time I trade on the news.
Dear BlueKnight: Please read my post again. My point is that you were gambling without any knowledge or bona fide verification that there was any truth in your assumption "I did this to reap big profits with a small deposit (50%+)." Thus, the probability of your success was 50% and, equally, the probability of your loss was also 50%. Again, this is gambling and not an informed trading.

Therefore, your statement to the effect that, I paraphrase, "that you experienced an unexpected loss" is a mischaracterization of the problem. For your problem was that you traded on what you called "news," which is more correctly characterized as "an opinion of pundits and so called 'experts' who knew nothing more than you and I about the future direction of the price - meaning they knew nothing - and that is the 50% probability of success and 50% probability of a loss, but your traded on the basis of their uniformed opinion.

I am sorry to be so direct in order to get this important point across. Best regards and a lot of success in your future trading!
  • #29
  • Jun 9, 2024 12:01pm Jun 9, 2024 12:01pm
Quoting Eurorally
{quote} Dear BlueKnight: Please read my post again. My point is that you were gambling without any knowledge or bona fide verification that there was any truth in your assumption "I did this to reap big profits with a small deposit (50%+)." Thus, the probability of your success was 50% and, equally, the probability of your loss was also 50%. Again, this is gambling and not an informed trading. Therefore, your statement to the effect that, I paraphrase, "that you experienced an unexpected loss" is a mischaracterization of the problem. For your problem...
I did not trade based on others opinions. I knew the market would move big in one direction, that is what happens after news release. What I did was to try and follow the wave, considering the risks.

I tried the same thing on Thursday on the EUR/USD (on demo account) and it was a success. But the market reaction was not that big compared to what happened last Friday (that was insane). I profited 10% on the demo account, in a single trade. That is why I tried in my live account, but the market reacted stronger than I expected. And I confess I risked a lot more in the live than in the demo account. Again, too many mistakes. I will have to take all this into consideration in the next venture.
  • #30
  • Jun 9, 2024 12:18pm Jun 9, 2024 12:18pm
Quoting BlueKnight
{quote} I agree I should have set a stop loss. I did not do it because I did not expect that buy order to be executed. But I will do it next time. Of course, the stop will not work very well because price moves too fast, but it should minimize possible (unexpected) losses. Keep in mind that I did this to reap big profits with a small deposit (50%+). It is not that I trade like this everyday. Normally, I trade low risk with very few (<1%) a day. I know I have a lot to learn. It is the first time I trade on the news.
Hello BlueKnight, first of all I am very sorry for your loss, because especially at the beginning, larger losses are unproductive and not particularly motivating. The reason for such price breakouts is the lack of liquidity on the ask and bid side, which is pulled out by the big players a few seconds beforehand. The biggest big players have significantly more access to all types of information than we retail traders. Normally you would assume that they can use the better information to deduce where the price will go next. However, since the incoming market orders when there is news are unpredictable and the theoretical probability is around 50%, they pull all their liquidity, which is close to the best ask and best bid, out of the market for the first few seconds. At the same time, however, the withdrawal of liquidity means that a stop, which as we know consists of an opposing market order, moves very far up or down until liquidity is available again. This usually creates a large slippage, which costs the retailer a lot of money unnecessarily. This means that even a normal stop loss does not guarantee that you will exit the market at the planned price level. As soon as the uncontrolled market orders (which are mainly triggered by the stops) decrease, liquidity returns and the market calms down again. In over 60% of cases, the breakout usually ends where it started after an hour. Apart from a lot of money being exchanged and a lot of spread being lost, nothing else has happened. If you want to trade there, I would definitely recommend working with guaranteed stops, which, however, also cost 2/3 more than the regular spread. With the help of the future data, you can also immediately see when the liquidity of the respective asset is withdrawn and when it returns. Since the big players, alongside the high-frequency traders, are the best traders in the world, you should always ask yourself why they pull out their liquidity close to execution when there is news and often move it to a higher price level. Only when liquidity is not withdrawn when there is news can the big players be sure that they can control the price with their liquidity. However, you will learn how the market works with a high number of screen hours and not from a trading coach who usually has no idea himself. To do this, you should complete the first 10,000 trades with 0.01 lot until you have safely reached your break-even point. I wish you the necessary perseverance and keep all my fingers crossed for you in the future, best wishes Michael
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #31
  • Jun 9, 2024 1:04pm Jun 9, 2024 1:04pm
Quoting BlueKnight
{quote} I did not trade based on others opinions. I knew the market would move big in one direction, that is what happens after news release. What I did was to try and follow the wave, considering the risks. I tried the same thing on Thursday on the EUR/USD (on demo account) and it was a success. But the market reaction was not that big compared to what happened last Friday (that was insane). I profited 10% on the demo account, in a single trade. That is why I tried in my live account, but the market reacted stronger than I expected. And I confess...
Respectfully, you are making the same mistake as most decision makers make today: Disregarding the method of scientific inquiry, you base your decision making on a single data point, while a verification of your trading hypothesis, or any hypothesis for that matter, must and may be obtained only via a scientific trial of a statistically significant size, all based on mathematical statistics. Thus, you verify your hypothesis at a high confidence level such as 95%. As a result, the trading signals you verified as valid are successful with the probability far exceeding 50%, better yet, are in the range of 70% to 90%.

I will illustrate based on my experience from medical research: It is very common among doctors, who typically know nothing about the methods of scientific inquiry and the methods of mathematical statistics that are sine qua non of such a scientific inquiry - the medical schools refrain from teaching anything like that - that a doctor administers an unproven or controversial drug to a seriously ill patient and the patient recovers. The doctor then rushes with his "findings" to a medical conference where he presents a paper on his "findings." (A suggestion of Ivermectin as a cure for Covid-19 disease comes to mind.)

Where is the mistake? The mistake is in that the good doctor has no proof that it was his drug that cured the patient. Even worse, his single data point may be an outlier that occurs perhaps with the probability of 0.001% whereas the remaining 999 cases in a statistically significant scientific sample of 1,000 patients would disprove his hypothesis.

Respectfully, you are doing the same as you are explaining your trading above.
  • #32
  • Jun 9, 2024 2:23pm Jun 9, 2024 2:23pm
Quoting BlueKnight
OK, this time I had the great idea to trade news after a successful experience on a demo account yesterday. But it went bad, very bad. I did not expect the market to react so aggressively. The volatility was so high that it (unexpectedly) activated one buy position before the big drop. Unfortunately, I did not have enough capital to sustain it. If it was not because of this I would end up in profit (or not). It all happened in one second. Experience for next time. Fortunately, I lost what I could afford to lose. ...
It was only 25 pips.
  • #33
  • Jun 9, 2024 2:31pm Jun 9, 2024 2:31pm
Quoting newbiforever
lesson learned one mistake could blown up one account our choice is using stop loss or use small lot size , correct ?
Bro, what SL?
It was 25 pips move...
  • #34
  • Jun 9, 2024 2:33pm Jun 9, 2024 2:33pm
Quoting pizd0s
{quote} Bro just don't trade during news releases or use very small margin and high risk reward like 1:20. There will be sudden movement if you lose you los not too much but if correct prediction then you reap profits. Separate account is needed
Your nickname tells everything.

  • #35
  • Jun 9, 2024 3:10pm Jun 9, 2024 3:10pm
Quoting genadi
{quote} It was only 25 pips.
The biggest problem was that buy order. It made me lose 223 pips, and it should not even be executed. The sell order retracted and it was 0.15 lots against 0.05 lots of the buy order. That is why few pips destroyed my account.
  • #36
  • Jun 9, 2024 3:28pm Jun 9, 2024 3:28pm
Quoting BlueKnight
{quote} The biggest problem was that buy order. It made me lose 223 pips, and it should not even be executed. The sell order retracted and it was 0.15 lots against 0.05 lots of the buy order. That is why few pips destroyed my account.
Wow, are you from Brazil?
  • #37
  • Jun 9, 2024 4:09pm Jun 9, 2024 4:09pm
Quoting genadi
{quote} Wow, are you from Brazil?
Yes.
  • #38
  • Jun 10, 2024 12:00am Jun 10, 2024 12:00am
Quoting BlueKnight
{quote} Yes.
Cool
  • #39
  • Jun 10, 2024 12:03am Jun 10, 2024 12:03am
I follow you , where is the group ...

Quoting Erebus
{quote} You should follow me I'll take a look, thanks, {quote} I love Sell Stop and Buy Stop Orders, take a look, no clue about direction here. {image} {image} {image}
  • #40
  • Jun 10, 2024 12:10am Jun 10, 2024 12:10am
speechless ... you try straddle the news ? why at hi time time frame ? ok you still look ok , after the burn

Quoting BlueKnight
{quote} I did not know which direction the market would take, so I had some pending buy and sell orders at set price ranges (buy stop and sell stop). When the market starts moving, the respective orders are activated when it crosses the price. The buy order was unexpected because it was not in the direction the market moved, but something happened and it managed to activate the buy order before the market started moving down. But I know I risked too much, the threshold was too tight; and the lots were very high for the deposit as well. Too many...
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