I lost everything! 😭 | Forex Factory

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I lost everything! 😭

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 7, 2024 1:16pm Jun 7, 2024 1:16pm
OK, this time I had the great idea to trade news after a successful experience on a demo account yesterday. But it went bad, very bad. I did not expect the market to react so aggressively. The volatility was so high that it (unexpectedly) activated one buy position before the big drop. Unfortunately, I did not have enough capital to sustain it. If it was not because of this I would end up in profit (or not). It all happened in one second.

Experience for next time. Fortunately, I lost what I could afford to lose.

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  • #2
  • Jun 7, 2024 2:27pm Jun 7, 2024 2:27pm
You can get free drinks playing roulette instead.
ForexOrderFlow.com Return This Year: 15.0%
  • #3
  • Jun 7, 2024 4:23pm Jun 7, 2024 4:23pm
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #4
  • Jun 7, 2024 9:15pm Jun 7, 2024 9:15pm
Quoting BlueKnight
OK, this time I had the great idea to trade news after a successful experience on a demo account yesterday. But it went bad, very bad. I did not expect the market to react so aggressively. The volatility was so high that it (unexpectedly) activated one buy position before the big drop. Unfortunately, I did not have enough capital to sustain it. If it was not because of this I would end up in profit (or not). It all happened in one second. Experience for next time. Fortunately, I lost what I could afford to lose. ...
How do you get an unexpected buy?

What in the Harry Potter is going on there?

I need to know; I don't want this to happen to others.

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #5
  • Jun 7, 2024 9:28pm Jun 7, 2024 9:28pm
You should follow my thread. I "Predicted" the sell. It was unexpected, I agree. I'm sorry Erebus, unexpected things are expected.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post14892916
1.02^200
  • #6
  • Jun 7, 2024 9:50pm Jun 7, 2024 9:50pm
Quoting BlueKnight
OK, this time I had the great idea to trade news after a successful experience on a demo account yesterday. But it went bad, very bad. I did not expect the market to react so aggressively. The volatility was so high that it (unexpectedly) activated one buy position before the big drop. Unfortunately, I did not have enough capital to sustain it. If it was not because of this I would end up in profit (or not). It all happened in one second. Experience for next time. Fortunately, I lost what I could afford to lose. ...

that's okay you lost this one..

even the experts got the Forecast wrong this time like many other times,

if the data turned out differently worst than Forecast, then your buy would have made money.


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its 50:50 trading the NFP,

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...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7
  • Jun 7, 2024 9:57pm Jun 7, 2024 9:57pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} How do you get an unexpected buy?
I did not know which direction the market would take, so I had some pending buy and sell orders at set price ranges (buy stop and sell stop). When the market starts moving, the respective orders are activated when it crosses the price. The buy order was unexpected because it was not in the direction the market moved, but something happened and it managed to activate the buy order before the market started moving down. But I know I risked too much, the threshold was too tight; and the lots were very high for the deposit as well. Too many mistakes.
  • #8
  • Jun 7, 2024 11:37pm Jun 7, 2024 11:37pm
Quoting BlueKnight
{quote} I did not know which direction the market would take.
I have no clue either. Directional analysis dictates that 50% of the time, it works every single time.
ForexOrderFlow.com Return This Year: 15.0%
  • #9
  • Jun 8, 2024 12:34am Jun 8, 2024 12:34am
Quoting BlueKnight
{quote} I did not know which direction the market would take, so I had some pending buy and sell orders at set price ranges (buy stop and sell stop). When the market starts moving, the respective orders are activated when it crosses the price. The buy order was unexpected because it was not in the direction the market moved, but something happened and it managed to activate the buy order before the market started moving down. But I know I risked too much, the threshold was too tight; and the lots were very high for the deposit as well. Too many...
You should avoid using stop orders (including the SL which is a stop order)
and use only limit orders (including the TP which is a limit order)
Practitioner of the cryptic trading arts
  • #10
  • Jun 8, 2024 2:37am Jun 8, 2024 2:37am
Quoting d5400
You should follow my thread. I "Predicted" the sell. It was unexpected, I agree. I'm sorry Erebus, unexpected things are expected. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post14892916
You should follow me

I'll take a look, thanks,

Quoting Endoephemera
{quote} You should avoid using stop orders (including the SL which is a stop order) and use only limit orders (including the TP which is a limit order)
I love Sell Stop and Buy Stop Orders, take a look, no clue about direction here.

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #11
  • Jun 8, 2024 3:00am Jun 8, 2024 3:00am
Quoting BlueKnight
{quote} I did not know which direction the market would take, so I had some pending buy and sell orders at set price ranges (buy stop and sell stop). When the market starts moving, the respective orders are activated when it crosses the price. The buy order was unexpected because it was not in the direction the market moved, but something happened and it managed to activate the buy order before the market started moving down. But I know I risked too much, the threshold was too tight; and the lots were very high for the deposit as well. Too many...
Ah ha, that old culprit, the SPREAD

Gotcha, be careful out there.

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #12
  • Jun 8, 2024 3:13am Jun 8, 2024 3:13am
Quoting Erebus
Stop Orders, take a look, no clue about direction
How do you operate in the big news whipsaws situations?
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #13
  • Jun 8, 2024 3:45am Jun 8, 2024 3:45am
Quoting Ryan420
{quote} I have no clue either. Directional analysis dictates that 50% of the time, it works every single time.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #14
  • Jun 8, 2024 7:29am Jun 8, 2024 7:29am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Ah ha, that old culprit, the SPREAD Gotcha, be careful out there.
It could have been this. The spread fluctuated and hit the stop limit. I did not expect that too.

I will be trading with fixed spread broker next time.
  • #15
  • Jun 8, 2024 8:14am Jun 8, 2024 8:14am
Quoting BlueKnight
{quote} I did not know which direction the market would take, so I had some pending buy and sell orders at set price ranges (buy stop and sell stop). When the market starts moving, the respective orders are activated when it crosses the price. The buy order was unexpected because it was not in the direction the market moved, but something happened and it managed to activate the buy order before the market started moving down. But I know I risked too much, the threshold was too tight; and the lots were very high for the deposit as well. Too many...
Quoting Ryan420
{quote} I have no clue either. Directional analysis dictates that 50% of the time, it works every single time.
Your most important task as a trader is to understand the direction of the market, if you understand the direction with knowledge and analysis or if you understand the direction based on luck.
It doesn't matter if you are a good trader or not
It doesn't matter if your entry points are good or bad
It doesn't matter if you are smart or not
Even if you throw a coin every 5 minutes and enter the trade, you will eventually make a profit
Theory of Everything is Liquidity...https://www.youtube.com/@FxArt.Trader
  • #16
  • Jun 8, 2024 8:54am Jun 8, 2024 8:54am
lesson learned

one mistake could blown up one account

our choice is using stop loss or use small lot size , correct ?
  • #17
  • Jun 8, 2024 9:33am Jun 8, 2024 9:33am
Pretty True . Yesterday i do make same mistake and lose huge amount in gold
  • #18
  • Jun 8, 2024 10:14am Jun 8, 2024 10:14am
Quoting newbiforever
lesson learned one mistake could blown up one account our choice is using stop loss or use small lot size , correct ?
Let's make it so that we need 5 mistakes in a row to blow an acct and just being correct less than 50% of the time will still be profitable. Trade small, trade with a small R-multiple.
ForexOrderFlow.com Return This Year: 15.0%
  • #19
  • Jun 8, 2024 12:18pm Jun 8, 2024 12:18pm
Man, i don't want to sound like a mother fucker who knows everything, but without an exit plan in worst case, you will always lost in long therm. Its like you have a business without any registration, you charge without bills, but then comes the day when you will get fucked. and thats the same thing in trading, the same situation can happen 10 times and youre a lucky man, but no 11 will kills you!
  • #20
  • Jun 8, 2024 3:25pm Jun 8, 2024 3:25pm
Quoting BlueKnight
OK, this time I had the great idea to trade news after a successful experience on a demo account yesterday. But it went bad, very bad. I did not expect the market to react so aggressively. The volatility was so high that it (unexpectedly) activated one buy position before the big drop. Unfortunately, I did not have enough capital to sustain it. If it was not because of this I would end up in profit (or not). It all happened in one second. Experience for next time. Fortunately, I lost what I could afford to lose. ...
Dear BlueKnight:
I am sorry about your loss. Respectfully, such a loss could have been avoided and prevented. I do not know what experience you have and how you trade (manually or with some automated aids).

I have been at this for eight years this month. After eight years, I feel I know what I am doing. I am trading exclusively S&P 500 futures - e-minies, instrument ES. So I have no experience whatsoever with trading currencies. However, I believe what I say below applies across the board. Here is my five cents:

1. You must trade with a Stop Loss. Or, did you have a SL and the exchange did not honor it quickly enough or not at all because of the rapid movement of price?
There are pundits on YouTube saying "SL should be big." How big? They do not know. It is a matter of your own research and optimization to find out.
2. Similarly, you say you did not have enough money in the account to sustain the loss? Another bad idea. You should never trade based on the fatally flawed idea that you can risk a lot because you perhaps have a lot of money in the account. That is gambling again. Basically, you should execute only those trades for which you verified via your own research that the probability of success far exceeds 50% and should be in the 70% to 90% range.
3. "Trading on the news" is a bad idea. Why? Because you are not trading following the news but you are trading based on what pundits and self-styled "experts" think will happen. I laugh whenever some hot shot says "I think." Because he does not know anything more than you and I but you tend to trust him. It is pure gambling. From the probabilistic point of view, if we know nothing about a direction of a phenomena, such as the price, there is the 50% probability it will go up and, equally, there is a 50% probability it will go down. "Could go up, may go down" is the adage.
4. How do we know that pundits and self-styled "experts" have no idea about the future direction of the price after the announcement of a major economic news? The proof is in the pudding: Take a look at ADP non-farm employment change on June 5, 2024: Actual 152K, ADP forecast 173K, previous month 188K.
Now, compare this to the Bureau of Labor Statistics figures announced on June 7, 2024, which was the reason for your loss: Actual 272K, forecast 182K, previous month 165K. All I can say about ADP, which gleans its figures from the payrolls they are processing, is as follows:
a. ADP has been frequently and habitually wrong - take a look at their track record on www.forexfactory.com
b. It is not clear to me why so many pay so much attention to ADP figures under the circumstances.
c. ADP payroll records are far less important, far less comprehensive (do not cover the breadth of the market) and far less correct than the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, which itself cannot be traded based on their forecast as we can see from the 67% discrepancy between the forecast of 182K and the actual of 272K.
5. You could hedge against such a big loss, if your platform and your broker allows that. I do not do it. You place two opposing orders with different profit, with the larger profit and smaller SL on the side you BELIEVE will be the winning side. In total, you come out of this with a small profit or a small loss. Gambling again.
6. Keep in mind that it is said that 80% of the market is performed automatically by computers. This is done by big trading firms employing hundreds of Ivy League educated engineers, financial analysts and computer programmers, working on computers worth tens of million dollars, placed directly next to the exchange so the electronic signal from the exchange would travel the minimum length, thus saving an infinitesimally small fraction of a second on the signal travelling at the speed of light. Therefore, I found that "automated trading systems" using programming tools available with the commercially sold trading platforms and run on laptops (my laptop cost thousands of dollars) are a mirage that cannot be accomplished with such trading tools.

I trust that this should clarify a few things for you and good luck in trading!
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