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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,661
  • Jul 8, 2007 11:00am Jul 8, 2007 11:00am
On GU Price broke through the 89, pulled back to the 21, move away, then pulled back agin to the 21. That is where it is right now. sitting just below the 8 and 21 MA. Now from here It can move away( up) since the pull back to the 21 has been fullfiled. The price is still above the 89 so we are in an uptrend . The price right now is at 2.0109/, 96 pips below the most recent high of 2.0205. Now the question is that is this pair loosing steam or has enough to take another shot at new highs. According to the Macd which is currently showing a Round bottom. So the signal is UP. I am thinking out loud here, all comments are welcome. Please share your take on GU.Thanks.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,662
  • Edited 3:52pm Jul 8, 2007 11:23am | Edited 3:52pm
Ok people , i was just listening to Phillips most recent weekly wrap MP3 over and over again. So here is another take on GBP/USD.He actually mentioned this rule in the USD/ JPY pair.
The rule says that WHEN PRICE COMES BACK THROUGH THE 21 , IT GOES THROUGH IT, IT TENDS TO GO (UP/DOWN) PAST IT AND THEN TO 89.
Now on GU the price has gone through the 21 so now will it go past it to the 89. which in this case is below the 21. For MACD to supprort this will have to give a TC signal .I am trying to plan my trade in relation to Moving averages. So please your feed back will be appreciated. Thanks.
Please Note that this is not a new rule . It was always there from the begining. i just got reminded of it by listening to the Mp3.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,663
  • Jul 8, 2007 2:34pm Jul 8, 2007 2:34pm
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Weekly Anticipation.zip   762 KB | 1,903 downloads
  • #5,664
  • Jul 9, 2007 3:13am Jul 9, 2007 3:13am
Quoting Doji Star
Hello sindutzz and thank you for the examples you showed all of us using Engulfing and Star candlestick patterns as a kind of a 'filter' for Phillip's MACD system!Well done, you're to be commended for your efforts,like Phillip said.

Using what you showed us, I 'transplanted' it to the EURUSD Daily Chart and...adding the ultimate filter of all, viz. TREND DIRECTION (which in EU's case is definitely UP!!Hence I only took BUY signals and left out counter-trend/SELL signals completely) discovered the following:
1-As of the 1st Jan 2007, there were 13 BUY signals, of which only 2 were losing trades and one (#7) was BE!
2-There were +945 pips up for grabs during this period. For traders unable to sit in front of their computers all day,this is onehelluva bonanza!

But in your 4hr examples, you used SL =30 and exit when price shows contra signal.I used tight SL=50 and exit also on contra signal.This tight SL would've made a difference to Trade #12.

if we let #7 run ,because the stop loss wasn't hit we could've made about 70 pips, but to stick to prescribed exit rules,let's call it BE.
NB-Position traders (add to their profitable positions) would've flourished using your filter!!

Once again, thank you for showing us your discovery!
TP counted at best result,just like your 4 hr examples.
I'll try and get around to checking this out on other pairs as well.
Dear Doji Star,

Thank you for your time to examining this system And your document about daily chart is great.
My homework for now is to practice "let the profit run" and build my own formula for exit which fit my capital.

Aldhy
  • #5,665
  • Jul 9, 2007 5:36am Jul 9, 2007 5:36am
Quoting Mister ED


I have been reading the above post and trying to get my head around candlestick patterns. Still haven't got hld of any of Steve Nison's books yet. However I have come across an indicator that can be altered to show just Engulfing and Star patterns.

Hope this will help others to get to grips with candlesticks

http://codebase.mql4.com/577

ED
Thank you mister ED I just have plan to create this indicator by my self.
Your info just save my time.
This indicator is very usefull.

Thank you very much.

Aldhy
  • #5,666
  • Jul 9, 2007 5:37am Jul 9, 2007 5:37am
Hi Palmer

I remember sometime ago you started a journal using MACD in a similar way on daily charts; have you tried to use this system on dailies or are you concentrating on 4h only.

Anybody else tried Phillip's method on daily charts?
Regards
  • #5,667
  • Jul 9, 2007 6:31am Jul 9, 2007 6:31am
@howard: there is a skype chat about the daily MACD system from Phil,
please go a few messages back to find the link for it.
  • #5,668
  • Jul 9, 2007 6:50am Jul 9, 2007 6:50am
howard:

It's been all 4hr and 1hr. I've had a daily range breakout thing in the back of my mind with the MACD method for a while now. But, as soon as I come across a pattern or set-up that looks good, it fails miserably later. Either way, I'm on the original plan...
  • #5,669
  • Jul 9, 2007 7:04am Jul 9, 2007 7:04am
How many of you are only taking trades with the trend?

-D-
  • #5,670
  • Jul 9, 2007 8:08am Jul 9, 2007 8:08am
Just a few notes here:

Our buddy the EUR$ looks a little stuck right now. I've got a bias towards the upside but there is a lot of resistance on the weekly chart. The first chart is the 4hr, the second chart is the weekly. I'm keeping an eye on Donna's Swissie and the $Yen for re-entries with the trend right now....
Attached Image
  • #5,671
  • Jul 9, 2007 8:09am Jul 9, 2007 8:09am
The weekly EUR$:
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  • #5,672
  • Jul 9, 2007 8:24am Jul 9, 2007 8:24am
Hello from Germany

would you short the EURUSD right now because of the turn in the MACD or would you rather ingnore the signal due to the fact that all MAvgs are bullish?

do you look at the 8/21 ExpMAvgs and think about possible "oversold/overbought"-scenarios?

Till
  • #5,673
  • Jul 9, 2007 8:29am Jul 9, 2007 8:29am
Hi Palmer,

I agree with your analysis on EUR. Can see movement on Cad and Jpy, but hard for GBP and EUR.

I am short GBP/USD.

Elaine
  • #5,674
  • Jul 9, 2007 8:32am Jul 9, 2007 8:32am
Quoting Palmer
The weekly EUR$:
Right on Palmer. I giving EURO a miss for the past few days...swissy at this moment as well...everything is squeezy from weekly to daily chart. Waiting for a clearer signal

Looking at Yen and cable, hopefully a TC signal to go in.

Palmer, u mentioned ur 1 hr strategy few days ago...re-reading it again..hopefully will shed some light as well. i'm pretty weak in 1hr strategy (Demo test on 1hr strategy).
  • #5,675
  • Jul 9, 2007 8:34am Jul 9, 2007 8:34am
Remington:

As far as the ma's being 'overbought'...The only way I see that is when you have a wide gap between the two of them. But, this usually coincides with a Rb or Rt on the MACD to bring them closer together.

As far as shorting the EUR$, you may see something different than I do but looking at the 1 hr, price is just above the pivot so I see that as support. Both 1hr and 4hr are turning down but the 4hr is above the 89 (bullish) and the MACD turn in the 4hr is 'small'. I'd keep the profit target small on the downside....
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  • #5,676
  • Jul 9, 2007 8:57am Jul 9, 2007 8:57am
ellipses:

Here's a quickie on the 1hr re-entry I look for. Sometimes the 4hr can be moving too fast for a Tc. I'll look at the 1hr and let the MACD tell me when to get in. When the 4hr barely makes it back to the 8ema (right chart) I'll look for the pullback on the 1hr (left chart). When the MACD goes back to red = with the trend on the 4hr, that's the signal; the gray vertical bars. The 4hr has to be strong though. Print the charts out and make notes on them by hand, the 4hr and 1hr, this helps a lot.

I gotta run...
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  • #5,677
  • Jul 9, 2007 10:13am Jul 9, 2007 10:13am
Why it's important to WAIT for the candle to CLOSE:

I was on the verge of shorting the Swissie at the close of the last 1 hr candle. The last few moments brought the price action down and the MACD was red. Price shot back up and the MACD bar stayed green and kept me out, all within the last minute or so...see tick chart..
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  • #5,678
  • Jul 9, 2007 10:41am Jul 9, 2007 10:41am
Quoting Palmer
ellipses:

Here's a quickie on the 1hr re-entry I look for. Sometimes the 4hr can be moving too fast for a Tc. I'll look at the 1hr and let the MACD tell me when to get in. When the 4hr barely makes it back to the 8ema (right chart) I'll look for the pullback on the 1hr (left chart). When the MACD goes back to red = with the trend on the 4hr, that's the signal; the gray vertical bars. The 4hr has to be strong though. Print the charts out and make notes on them by hand, the 4hr and 1hr, this helps a lot.

I gotta run...
Dear Palmer,
I didn't really get you what are you trying to say.sorry ,I finished everything this weekend and new

thanks
Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #5,679
  • Jul 9, 2007 12:42pm Jul 9, 2007 12:42pm
Mike:

It's about getting in a little earlier, or trying to, on a trend continuation based on the 4hr trend direction using the 1hr set up as the entry. When the 4hr pulls back, look at the 1hr MACD bar to change color back to the 4hr trend.
  • #5,680
  • Jul 9, 2007 4:22pm Jul 9, 2007 4:22pm
Quoting Palmer
ellipses:

Here's a quickie on the 1hr re-entry I look for. Sometimes the 4hr can be moving too fast for a Tc. I'll look at the 1hr and let the MACD tell me when to get in. When the 4hr barely makes it back to the 8ema (right chart) I'll look for the pullback on the 1hr (left chart). When the MACD goes back to red = with the trend on the 4hr, that's the signal; the gray vertical bars. The 4hr has to be strong though. Print the charts out and make notes on them by hand, the 4hr and 1hr, this helps a lot.

I gotta run...
Thanks Palmer, that is a great example, im going to wallpaper my room with that chart (after i clean it up )
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