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Trading EURUSD only 43,756 replies

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  • #197,601
  • Edited 5:43am May 30, 2024 5:28am | Edited 5:43am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Based on simple observation, we are basically back at retesting my GREEN wma line. Looking into the near past we can see that scenario A and B are both possible. Since we don't know which one of these will play out, we can choose to trade mixed. Often this phase can take time and become choppy so don't rush and don't assume. Give both sides time until the final decision is made. Odds wise, we are still above my GREEN wma, so bulls have the upper hand. BUT we also notice yesterday's strong bearish candle. This makes the situation unclear as long...
A or B? That is the question... But, there is an important difference between the original A and B and where we are now on your chart. When the original A happened, the MACD was crossing over the signal line and flashing a Sell Signal. When B happened the MACD was clearly in Bull territory and rising. In the present instance the MACD is clearly Bearish and descending.

Also, that very important black trendline on your chart (1.0712) is very likely to be tested.

1.0713 is the 61.8% Fib retracement of the entire up swing.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #197,602
  • May 30, 2024 5:48am May 30, 2024 5:48am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} A or B? That is the question... But, there is an important difference between the original A and B and where we are now on your chart. When the original A happened, the MACD was crossing over the signal line and flashing a Sell Signal. When B happened the MACD was clearly in Bull territory and rising. In the present instance the MACD is clearly Bearish and descending. Also, that very important black trendline on your chart (1.0712) is very likely to be tested.
Good point and very true. For this particular one yes you might dig up better clues. More info can often better our "educated guessing" results. In our example I quickly compared point A and B without thinking too much. BUT of course one could also go back to the last 1000 A and B situations and come up with a complete different result. My emphasis was that we are at a junction: Price coming from above into my GREEN wma area. In the end it is still only about "Will it A or B"?

All that considered, I am always focusing on M15 or H1 movements to catch early signs that could hint if, on the larger scale, A or B will happen. Hence, why I suggested to trade mixed.

Best wishes
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #197,603
  • May 30, 2024 5:58am May 30, 2024 5:58am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} I miss a touch to the pivot too and maybe 1.0825 but it might be choppy and comes up again from lower! 15 min {image}
I am still thinking we wil hit 0820ish before a new low, or if we break above 0830 then mayb we can go a bit higher

update: 0820 hit, closing long and trying my first short
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #197,604
  • May 30, 2024 6:06am May 30, 2024 6:06am
Meanwhile, on H4...

I highlighted the area that I am currently focused on. Earliest area to sell would be ~1.0824, but with momentum, next could be ~1.0847 area.

Once short, I would then watch ~1.0798 area to see if support breaks or not. Step by step!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-H4.png Size: 26 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #197,605
  • May 30, 2024 6:08am May 30, 2024 6:08am
I am currently short since 1.0850. Exiting right at the confluence of the Red, Yellow and Green lines on the chart: 1.0725
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #197,606
  • May 30, 2024 6:20am May 30, 2024 6:20am
Quoting Matts Micro
Currently long with added position slightly lower. My MT4 updated and I forgot to close manually so lost a couple of days of TL's... I had to start fresh on making a mess of my chart. It wasn't too bad though I had pics and also was able to clarify a few levels too. So far my "Right of Chart" analysis is forthcoming, will see if my levels pan out on the current correction- back to BO levels (slate blue TL) before a continued push lower. The hourly H&S is good with good order flow. Technically imo we should see 1.074 again where the playing ground...
TS +30 pips (total 2x trades)

I have reversal signals that suggest we may go down from here. If this is it for the correction I expect the bears to come in quite heavy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 162.png Size: 26 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #197,607
  • May 30, 2024 6:30am May 30, 2024 6:30am
We already have an OUTSIDE week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 26 KB
  • #197,608
  • May 30, 2024 7:03am May 30, 2024 7:03am
Nothing confirmed yet. We'll see what happens and what direction it actually takes.
1,080 would be my purchase, but it was dawn in Brazil and I prefer to sleep hahaha
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #197,609
  • May 30, 2024 7:04am May 30, 2024 7:04am
The same kind of a BREAKOUT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #197,610
  • May 30, 2024 7:06am May 30, 2024 7:06am
Quoting andvk74
The same kind of a BREAKOUT {image}
Neat and tidy as always!
  • #197,611
  • May 30, 2024 7:08am May 30, 2024 7:08am
Some support...a lot of resistance. I think we'll spike to around 1.825 (or 1.83ish) at news, then hit the wall hard and slide down it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #197,612
  • May 30, 2024 7:09am May 30, 2024 7:09am
toadys news impact
any ides
  • #197,613
  • May 30, 2024 7:15am May 30, 2024 7:15am
nice bearish move setting up, will start after news.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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When you see it, BET big.
  • #197,614
  • May 30, 2024 7:28am May 30, 2024 7:28am
Good day to all. I would like to share another view. Since we are approaching the end of the month, a look to the monthly candle is some of my practice to predict the shape of the candle. It quite come in handy since all technical indicators are supper lag and unnecessary. Indeed yesterday candle show significant bears power, and it could be a game changer. But monthly candle say a different story for bulls and bears here:
For bears: if they manage to get this month close below 1.0665 (April closed) then the bears may still a chance to reach nearest target around 1.05
For bulls: any effort to keep the price above 1.08 could make the bears of Jan 2024 seriously consider to take action, even take profits.

To support these theory, we can see price has been moving in a range 1.12~1.05 since 2023. Outside this, mark 0.95 is the lowest (and I don't think, unless another global disaster, we could see this level again for quite a long time). Next if bulls can break above this range, a free highway to 1.18 could be in mind.

Anyway, just a thought, keep your powder dry and trade safe. Wish you best.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #197,615
  • May 30, 2024 7:39am May 30, 2024 7:39am
We have a big hammer on 4hr chart and if this hammer reverses the price to the strong resistance which is at 1.0880, then chances of break to the North are really high and we might see one more HH by tomorrow.
  • #197,616
  • May 30, 2024 7:50am May 30, 2024 7:50am
Waiting for final US red data coming in an hour roughly to call it a day... We are at mentioned resistance levels (1.0825/35 area)..

Let's see if bears can stop these bull attacks..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #197,617
  • May 30, 2024 7:58am May 30, 2024 7:58am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Waiting for final US red data coming in an hour roughly to call it a day... We are at mentioned resistance levels (1.0825/35 area).. Let's see if bears can stop these bull attacks..
I think for selling, waiting for a strong confirmation will be much better because if this wave is a bullish impulse wave then we will be shorting it at the very beginning which will be not considered a good entry point.
  • #197,618
  • May 30, 2024 8:03am May 30, 2024 8:03am
Quoting rehmatkhan00
{quote} I think for selling, waiting for a strong confirmation will be much better because if this wave is a bullish impulse wave then we will be shorting it at the very beginning which will be not considered a good entry point.
I focused on 1.0825/35 and no second thoughts for me.. Don't miss out chances while nobody sees it, because as soon as bears kick in, it is often too late to enter afterwards.. (i.e. it is too late once everybody realizes the opportunity)

Best wishes
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #197,619
  • May 30, 2024 8:07am May 30, 2024 8:07am
Posted this morning that Europe started the day bullish, cant see it back in the forum. Me as new member of the forum cant do much about it. But i was right. 5 hours later were still climbing.
  • #197,620
  • May 30, 2024 8:10am May 30, 2024 8:10am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} I focused on 1.0825/35 and no second thoughts for me.. Don't miss out chances while nobody sees it, because as soon as bears kick in, it is often too late to enter afterwards.. (i.e. it is too late once everybody realizes the opportunity) Best wishes
Yup brother, I have seen a good number of traders who usually have aggressive entry style which can sometime really profitable as you catch a movement at the very beginning. Anyway best of luck
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