EURUSD only

the drop was caused not so much by the consumer sentiment but because of the cpi projections released at the same time for wednesday next week, rate cuts from fed were priced in because of nfp, unemployment claims, but the main thing that will cause volatility is the cpi, ranging until the news and everything points at a higher cpi which will mean that fed cant cut the rates in september and you will see a big selloff, i wouldn’t advise going long until the cpi news are out, you can position yourself for a good swing trade if cpi goes more than projected.

EUR/USD traded in a tight range this week without a clear direction, bulls still have the advantage above 1.0750 and should target higher at 1.0835 but the levels near 1.0800 may be hard to break and if bears take the rein then 1.0700 maybe in danger. News should help the volatility this week but usually and until more one way positioning enters the market (see CFTC) big moves will fade.

Weekly volatility (range) 83 pips

Option expiries for Monday: 1.0750 (EU2.46b), 1.0755 (EU823.5m) source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US PPI, US Retail Sales, US CPI, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Housing Starts & US Industrial Production.

4 hours

Have a great rest of the weekend!

Last week was the 2nd smallest one for the past 5 years!!!

Quick H4 Outlook

Can bulls break above current resistance at 1.0781? Time will tell...

If yes, we go towards 1.0850 levels... If no, we drop back to 1.0716 levels...

Hello all. New to trading forex but not to stocks and stocks options. Forex is a little different than trading in stocks but the bad habits that I picked up there are also very much relevant here. So wanted to share my story.

I followed some traders in the runs of GME, AMC and SPRT for some major gains. Life changing gains (6 figure gains). I felt on top of the world and full of emotions/excitement. Felt like i had this thing learned and it was easy momey (no there is no such thing as easy money).

Well bad habits and a general hold it it will go back mentality caused me to lose it all and then some (the revenge trading mentality). I listened to furus and the general sentiment of traders that were like myself.

Well fast forward 1 and a half years later and here I am getting back into trading and notice those same bad habits are lurking around still and are the reasons for this post.

I don't want anyone to take this the wrong way because I love the TA, the charting, the knowledge that's spread around. It has helped me tremendously understanding the forex part of trading and has gotten me some profits. But in the end its not about following one person or trying to copy trading someone here.

It's about learning to trade your style and how to deal with the emotions and the feeling you get when your on the end of a losing trade and have to get out or your SL was triggered. Or the opposite when your making money but don't want to take profits cuz you want more (greed which included over leveraging account is what in the end was my ultimate downfall).

So all this being said I love to learn new things. I feel like that is vital for growth in life. I wanted to say thank you to those who share freely their charts/TA (though I don't trade just because I like a chart someone posted). It has helped me learn to chart myself so I can see what kinds response price has to what I have charted myself.

As the old saying goes. Give a man a fish he eats for a day. Teach a man how to fish and he can eat for a life time. And we are all here for the same reason. We like to eat green pips.

Thank you again for the knowledge and the laughs. Sometimes it's the best part of my work day. (Tostado especially about gains and the memes life hahahaha)

I just started studying this Wyckoff Method. I'm just dipping my toes in, but looking at the recent charts (I prefer the 2HR format), this looks like a textbook Accumulation movement based on his methods. I'm curious to see price movement early next week. Most of you all probably know way more about this than I do, but I found it fascinating that recent movements played out almost entirely in accordance with his findings. I hope you all had a profitable week.

Disclamer: I'm new here and I would say take this with a grain of salt.

I agree with you about the CPI. It will affect the Feds decision for sure on interest rates. Where I live in North Carolina, I can already tell you the price of things are continuing to skyrocket. Chances are the Bulls will take the price up in the beginning of the week, while the Bears just hang out. When the CPI comes out Wednesday, I expect it to be higher. Lookout for the Big Sell off!

A look at the monthly chart will not eat amount of time and give you a good overview. If you have done it, the last week was no real surprise.

DXY Based on H4

Hi All,

This is my EURUSD 13-17 May 2024 W20 – Weekly Analysis – EU & US CPI Week!

Always appreciate your feedback,

Hello all, here is my plan for the week.

Hey Gents, after letting the dust settle over the weekend & taking a some nice LONG wins Friday on the EURUSD, this is my current key points starting the week. The big thing is we have some Red Data Folders coming Wednesday which can either help continue the uptrend, or the beginning of the downtrend. As per the last 2 weeks all the USD data has not been the best, helping continue the Bullish EUR trend.

I have highlighted current important points in the image. Bulls broke the H4 Trendline which is a big move. However a retracement of last weeks Bullish push can be expected. If Bulls can hold 1.076-1.0765 that would be a major win for Bulls which will keep them right along the trendline. Measuring the last upswing & using FIB there's a possibility for lows 1.0745-1.0755 + using my H4 Candle Trendline, Dragon Trend, & 200 Day EMA. My biggest concern for Bulls would be if bears push under 1.074 Bulls would fall under the bottom trendline & then if CPI comes in good for the USD it's game over. If the CPI comes weaker & Bulls have held 1.076+ we possibly will see 1.083.

In the coming 2 days with no news, I expect volume to be lower & possibly a Ranging Market like last week prior to the data. However I expect it in the upside direction if the Bulls hold the key support levels. The second to last H4 candle looks like a liquidity sweep candle.

To finish things off, I expect a retest of 1.07650 & possibly down to 1.07550 or/either a continuation to the upside with Major Resistance at 1.078-1.08 which has been a major battle. For now the best situation is monitor the market, & or scalp the market. In all honesty you almost can't loose being this high if go short for the long run, as I'm sure a drop to restest 1.0600 will come.

My sentiment is still Bullish until Wednesday - Unless bears come in and push below 1.074 under the second trendline. I have my support at 1.745 & Resistance at 1.079

P.s. This is not trading advice - just sharing my analysis which comes from my own style of trading

Agreed.

Hello all,

I am coming up with my bearish weekly/monthly sentiment on the EURUSD.

My main analysis is on the Dollar Index which is by my opinion the better analysis to have before starting trading pairs. I will begin showing the analysis of the Dollar Index which is almost an inverted chart of the EURUSD.

I think we have already hit EVERY possible price retracement on the dollar index and we'll be moving strong up on the dollar. That's why my sentiment on the EURUSD is very, VERY bearish.

*Next screenshots are on the dollar index.

On the monthly chart there's a huge fair value gap(or price inefficiency as some may call it) where the price should retrace to, to give institutions a fair price for their orders. Right now we're below 50% of this gap and below the 50% of the move down which is perfect. (Above 50% the price is a premium price and below 50% the price is in discount) We have to buy on discount. Same rule applies for next screenshots.




On the weekly chart we see that we have fully covered the price inefficiency down to 0% of the gap.




Mr.Wick from the weekly chart has extended perfectly below the gap to fill the FVG on the daily chart.




On the 4H chart we see that we're still in discount below 50% and we have filled the last price inefficiency.




You can see that there's a wick on the 4H chart from one of the last candles that goes way too low. This is because when we check the 1H chart there's a price inefficiency that has been filled on Friday. From this level price exploded up(on EURUSD it exploded down). We are still to this moment around 50% of the lowest point and highest point in 1H chart. On the top of the highest point there's a pool of Liquidity. I'd like to see how price goes to the upper gap which is shown in the picture and continues up to close above the highest point.




I have opened a position on the lowest possible level for the Dollar Index(highest point for the EURUSD) and have already took a partial with initial position open to continue move down.




Let's continue the analysis of the Dollar Index...

On the 15m chart we see in the blue rectangle the price has already retraced below 50% of the price inefficiency.




Let's zoom in on 5m chart and see things closer. We see the same gap which was on 15m but this time I have shown gaps on 5m which are in green rectangles and you can easily see how price went below 50% of these gaps(price inefficiencies) couple of times.




After this happened, there was a bullish breaker where price moved fully above it and then retraced back to it. It even happened inside the last price inefficiency on the 5m chart.




Well it looks to me that the dollar has covered every possible move down and now it's going to reach for that price inefficiency on the 1H chart and very possibly reach for the buyside liquidity. On the EURUSD simply mirrored that would mean price won't go any higher than the range of 1.079 to 1.08. I think we saw this price for the last time last week and from now on everything will be lower.

EURUSD: The target on 1H chart is 1.07434 and very possible to reach the sellside liquidity at 1.07240. Right now we are in premium and it's best to sell anywhere above current price.




And the target for the monthly chart is anything between 1.02435 to 1.04059.

https://ibb.co/Q6yP25Y imgBB* *photo since I have reached the maximum pictures to upload. [Please advise me if it's allowed to leave that link or I should remove it.]

Well that's from me. I hope you have a great trading week.

Hello my friend!!!

In this case, just comparing second last trading day to last trading is a good enough indication that I can make some more piparonese by buying.



Cheers and happy new trading week everyone!!

Sending my heartfelt and very best wishes to you all, and for each day!

All I know is this whole weekend I have looked forward to your images this week

According to my technical ( I have looked as much fundamental for the next 2 days as I could) I am with you I do see a market for scalpers currently, as price seems to be ranging as I mentioned above, but currently I see no reason other than technical for a downtrend until Late night EST Tuesday/ or Wednesday. I have no moves right now, watching the market first & then deciding what move to make.

P.s. I will find some images that are as good as yours this week

, I love to hear it !!

Then we can use the Art of Abstraction together, from a forever growing laughter to a forever growing account !