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Attachments: A Tasty Standard - 45 DTE SPX Iron Condors
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A Tasty Standard - 45 DTE SPX Iron Condors

  • #121
  • Apr 14, 2024 7:44am Apr 14, 2024 7:44am
on the premise that Friday's sell-off was mostly a reaction to looming Iran-Israel conflict, the easy prediction is that the coming week will see indices rally, as the issue may be settled, for now...I'll be looking at legging into the put side 15dte IC, probably @ SPX 5,000...

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #122
  • Edited 5:37pm Apr 15, 2024 5:10pm | Edited 5:37pm
I sold the limit on today's down move, out 14dte 15 delta 25-wide, but I didn't get all that I wanted....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #123
  • Edited 11:50am Apr 16, 2024 11:13am | Edited 11:50am
Quoting The Fool
I sold the limit on today's down move, out 14dte 15 delta 25-wide, but I didn't get all that I wanted.... {image}
did it again, Apr29 4875/4850 puts, $2.80 credit on the JPow dip. I leave the call side open and will only sell bear calls into strength,....probly look for a daily close above the 50 SMA.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #124
  • Apr 17, 2024 7:51am Apr 17, 2024 7:51am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I leave the call side open and will only sell bear calls into strength,....probly look for a daily close above the 50 SMA.
...could be a wait...I'd premised the trade on some bullish action going into earnings season. Maybe that needs to get up some steam. Meanwhile, net daily theta now only -$0.15. Wondering if same "weekend risk-off" will be in play come Friday....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #125
  • Apr 18, 2024 8:29pm Apr 18, 2024 8:29pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}... Wondering if same "weekend risk-off" will be in play come Friday....
LOL...when missiles fly, time to buy? Will it stop at quid pro quo? The whole week of red candles was waiting for Israel's next move...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #126
  • Apr 19, 2024 4:51am Apr 19, 2024 4:51am
classic
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #127
  • Apr 19, 2024 9:28pm Apr 19, 2024 9:28pm
April - Mid-May of '22 it was 7 straight red weeks, for a 17% correction. Now looking at just 3 straight for just about 7% down. We could be just getting started .... I need to see a green day though, and soon...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #128
  • Apr 20, 2024 1:53pm Apr 20, 2024 1:53pm
Quoting The Fool
I need to see a green day though, and soon...
tbh I will be surprised if we don't see at least one or two solid bounce days in the coming week. It's a slow data week w/ Fed blackout....long live btfd dammit...I'm counting on it.....that and earnings....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #129
  • Apr 22, 2024 10:38am Apr 22, 2024 10:38am
happy to see this solid bounce & you knew it was coming. With just 5 td's til Apr 29 and heavy ERs this week, I'll likely keep the IC call side open and shoot for a release on Friday...

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #130
  • Apr 23, 2024 11:03am Apr 23, 2024 11:03am
Quoting The Fool
happy to see this solid bounce & you knew it was coming. With just 5 td's til Apr 29 and heavy ERs this week, I'll likely keep the IC call side open and shoot for a release on Friday...
KILLING it for 35c debit, see if it fills...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #131
  • Edited 1:47pm Apr 23, 2024 12:19pm | Edited 1:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}KILLING it for 35c debit, see if it fills...
...out for $0.40, a $2.35 net profit....will be flat for a little while...maybe wait til after the May FOMC.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #132
  • Apr 24, 2024 6:33pm Apr 24, 2024 6:33pm
I am bearish stocks & think the next 6 months will be volatile, great news for options traders. I think there will be a bearish reaction to a hawkish Fed next week.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #133
  • May 3, 2024 1:20pm May 3, 2024 1:20pm
NEAR the close I sold May20 bear calls, 5275/5300, for $2.50
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #134
  • May 4, 2024 7:37pm May 4, 2024 7:37pm
Quoting The Fool
NEAR the close I sold May20 bear calls, 5275/5300, for $2.50
I expect some upward trending in the coming data-slack week. I may get some long deltas with a RUT or XSP time spread. Probably RUT. I have become something of a specialist in being wrong about RUT direction. But, if I'm right, I'll make some money on a long RUT bet and use that to roll out the SPX bear calls, if necessary. I can play that game til the cows come home.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135
  • May 6, 2024 9:09am May 6, 2024 9:09am
...also XSP calendar calls, to stack some more deltas for the week...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136
  • May 7, 2024 9:40pm May 7, 2024 9:40pm
Quoting The Fool
NEAR the close I sold May20 bear calls, 5275/5300, for $2.50
yep, I shoulda waited another day or so. Daily theta going to about -$0.35....shit volume in the SP products, easy to see a run to another ath double top. I almost rolled out another 10dte and up 75 pts today, still considering that, if there be no red candles to sell....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137
  • May 10, 2024 9:01am May 10, 2024 9:01am
about $3 underwater on bear calls but I am hanging in. Looking for a little pullback prior to the PPI/CPI. If I get that, I will roll up and out Monday, probably all the way to Jun opex,,,,and will add the bull puts.

Good segment today on tastylive
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138
  • May 10, 2024 9:06am May 10, 2024 9:06am
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Data reflects bull market conditions over the 15 yr period, and useful to know that the deltas are not the safest measure of calls touched/exp itm....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139
  • Edited 3:30pm May 10, 2024 1:12pm | Edited 3:30pm
wow the bulls threw the bears a bone, a little red doji....I like that gap down below 5100, though....if the CPI comes in hot next week, easy to see that filling.

Looks like I will be able to roll bear calls ok Monday - will look at 20-25 delta Jun opex (Jun 21) might go 5375/5400, might make a nickel, just stayin alive. Will add 15 delta bull puts for a couple bucks green, maybe 4975/4950, pray for June doldrums
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140
  • Edited 3:15pm May 13, 2024 12:56pm | Edited 3:15pm
Quoting The Fool
Looks like I will be able to roll bear calls ok Monday - will look at 20-25 delta Jun opex (Jun 21) might go 5375/5400, might make a nickel, just stayin alive. Will add 15 delta bull puts for a couple bucks green, maybe 4975/4950, pray for June doldrums
ROLLED calls to Jun21 5375/5400 for a 20c debit, added Jun21 5000/4975 puts for $2.45 credit, now have a 39dte IC @ $4.75 net credit - 15 delta puts & 25 delta calls. Expect to adjust early if market dips on PPI/CPI this week...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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