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Japanese Daily Breakout

  • #41
  • May 1, 2024 4:19am May 1, 2024 4:19am
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} Yes, the profit will come easily if you stick to the simple system. The hardest part is sitting on your hands when there’s no trades, only a couple a week :/
However 2 trades a week - gives 12 trades a week if you trade 6 pairs. That's more than 2 per day. We had 3 trades allready today (i count GBPJPY in).
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #42
  • May 1, 2024 4:27am May 1, 2024 4:27am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Timeframe of Candlesticks / Bars
OK. Timeframe does matter - because we do only trade at the Close of the bar - very important!

If you have a bar on say H4 and it has a long wick to the north. That means that on a lower TF - say M15, you have bars that close higher than the H4 bar. Hence it would be possible, that the M15 TF did take the trade but the H4 did not. So there is a difference. Using M15 you will get in earlier.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #43
  • May 1, 2024 5:12am May 1, 2024 5:12am
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} OK. Timeframe does matter - because we do only trade at the Close of the bar - very important! If you have a bar on say H4 and it has a long wick to the north. That means that on a lower TF - say M15, you have bars that close higher than the H4 bar. Hence it would be possible, that the M15 TF did take the trade but the H4 did not. So there is a difference. Using M15 you will get in earlier.
Ok
No problem
Good luck
  • #44
  • May 1, 2024 10:03am May 1, 2024 10:03am
Quoting MachineLearn
RULES NO Trolls. NO discussion of other non related systems. NO discussion of commercial materials (Brokers, Paid Products, etc) NO attacking and disrespecting other members. You can add tweaks to the system, but NOT change the Main Concept! Sharing other indicators not related will be ignored. This group focus on manual leaning approach, automation is not the strategy Using the thread as means in getting monetary benefits like donations RULE BREAKERS WILL BE IGNORED WITHOUT NOTICE! Timeframes M15 Daily Reset 5PM US Eastern Time for me Markets CADJPY,...
How have you been doing with this strategy until now this week?
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #45
  • May 1, 2024 10:29am May 1, 2024 10:29am
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} How have you been doing with this strategy until now this week?
I’m new to this strategy, I’ve only been trading it on a small live account for 2 weeks.

I’ve done extensive testing and simulation though, that’s what made me excited to bring it to live markets.
it’s truly testing my patience however
  • #46
  • May 1, 2024 10:48am May 1, 2024 10:48am
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} I’m new to this strategy, I’ve only been trading it on a small live account for 2 weeks. I’ve done extensive testing and simulation though, that’s what made me excited to bring it to live markets. it’s truly testing my patience however
Let me help you my friend Machine, I used Range Breakout Strategy, variation link attached. I traded USDJPY, it was great 2016 - 2019. It stopped working after that. Looking into it again.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...on-breakout-v2
  • #47
  • May 1, 2024 10:54am May 1, 2024 10:54am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Let me help you my friend Machine, I used Range Breakout Strategy, variation link attached. I traded USDJPY, it was great 2016 - 2019. It stopped working after that. Looking into it again. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...on-breakout-v2
Would love your input, all ideas welcomed.
  • #48
  • May 1, 2024 11:10am May 1, 2024 11:10am
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} Would love your input, all ideas welcomed.
Here is the last time I participated in Range Breakout discussions. It is a good thread, I suggest to study it.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...tem-80?page=80
  • #49
  • May 1, 2024 12:21pm May 1, 2024 12:21pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Here is the last time I participated in Range Breakout discussions. It is a good thread, I suggest to study it. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...tem-80?page=80
Gosh
You have gone way back then with that one
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  • #50
  • May 1, 2024 12:30pm May 1, 2024 12:30pm
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Gosh You have gone way back then with that one {image} {image}
yeah, you can even see some familiar names
  • #51
  • May 1, 2024 2:12pm May 1, 2024 2:12pm
Tuesday - no trades.
Wednesday 3 trades - 3 losers.
I am aware that statistic says that around 50% of trades will be losers.
I have tested using moving average to minimize losses. Does not work.
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MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #52
  • May 1, 2024 2:15pm May 1, 2024 2:15pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} I used this idea of Range Breakout but in my own interpretation for 300% up profit 2016 - 2019 in USDJPY
Well Done
I still use a variation of it till this day
ps
After all, you just need to modify the Fib Tool
  • #53
  • May 1, 2024 2:16pm May 1, 2024 2:16pm
Quoting RiskFighter
Tuesday - no trades. Wednesday 3 trades - 3 losers. I am aware that statistic says that around 50% of trades will be losers. I have tested using moving average to minimize losses. Does not work. {image} {image} {image}
Yup, will update thread with ratio. I’m losing more of the time then winning. Streaks will happen… This is why people struggle to stay with these simple but profitable systems - hard for the psyche
  • #54
  • May 1, 2024 2:23pm May 1, 2024 2:23pm
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} Yup, will update thread with ratio. I’m losing more of the time then winning. Streaks will happen… This is why people struggle to stay with these simple but profitable systems - hard for the psyche
You are freaking tenacious, you will get there, do not give up. At one point, you will find what suites you best. My advice, spend only

10% of your time on finding a proper Entry
30% of your time on MM
60% of your time on Mindfulness(Discipline), so you can conquer your Fear and Greed.

I know Fear and Greed are just usual words for traders but that is the where difference lies between ruin and happiness.
  • #55
  • May 1, 2024 2:34pm May 1, 2024 2:34pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} You are freaking tenacious, you will get there, do not give up. At one point, you will find what suites you best. My advice, spend only 10% of your time on finding a proper Entry 30% of your time on MM 60% of your time on Mindfulness(Discipline), so you can conquer your Fear and Greed.
I agree 100%. Profitability isn’t the issue here. Learning how to curb my desire to always be trading and making more money, as well as coping with losers is the real challenge.

I’m actually handling the losers on my account pretty well for the time being, albeit on a small account. Baby steps.
  • #56
  • May 1, 2024 3:11pm May 1, 2024 3:11pm
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} I agree 100%. Profitability isn’t the issue here. Learning how to curb my desire to always be trading and making more money, as well as coping with losers is the real challenge. I’m actually handling the losers on my account pretty well for the time being, albeit on a small account. Baby steps.
Baby steps - That is how I eventually learned, there is just no other way. It takes years to be consistently profitable.
  • #57
  • May 1, 2024 4:20pm May 1, 2024 4:20pm
CAD,USD,GBP all just took profit.

A lot of the entries across these pairs are redundant, and because of that, I’ll only be tracking CADJPY’s performance on the original post.

Updating soon
  • #58
  • May 1, 2024 8:10pm May 1, 2024 8:10pm
Quoting MachineLearn
CAD,USD,GBP all just took profit. A lot of the entries across these pairs are redundant, and because of that, I’ll only be tracking CADJPY’s performance on the original post. Updating soon
Updated main post

CADJPY is a performs well, +2R

recouped -1R from USDJPY earlier
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  • #59
  • Edited 8:45pm May 1, 2024 8:19pm | Edited 8:45pm
The thread is appearently no longer exclusively about Yesterday Break Out. So I experimented with EURJPY in a different setup.
TF is M15. After 8 bars you take the trade when a bar is closing higher or lower than highest or lowest at the 8 bars.
SL 33 pips. TP 132 pips.
Equity at start is 10.000$ and gain is reinvested. Risk is 2%.
Profit is 16.144$ or 734$ a week.
Winrate is 33% - not high but then the pips are very high.
There are cases where the position is exitted next day, but it seems that the EOD glitches are not doing any harm. However I will remove SL for 1 hour at EOD.

But now we are curvefitting. This is something MT4 can do and it is dangerous. I stopped using the test tool years ago because of this. Now I am back. I only have 5 months of data in the sandbox that I am using, so I cannot make a control at some other time span.

I will forward trade this in the sandbox for one week, then we will see how it goes.

MachineLearn please tell if this experiment is accepted or if I shall move it to another thread.
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MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #60
  • May 1, 2024 8:56pm May 1, 2024 8:56pm
Quoting RiskFighter
The thread is appearently no longer exclusively about Yesterday Break Out. So I experimented with EURJPY in a different setup. TF is M15. After 8 bars you take the trade when a bar is closing higher or lower than highest or lowest at the 8 bars. SL 33 pips. TP 132 pips. Equity at start is 10.000$ and gain is reinvested. Risk is 2%. Profit is 16.144$ or 734$ a week. Winrate is 33% - not high but then the pips are very high. There are cases where the position is exitted next day, but it seems that the EOD glitches are not doing any harm. However I...
Definitely accepted, love seeing variations and experimentation. Thanks

ill be primarily focusing on daily breakouts on m15 for a while
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