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Japanese Daily Breakout

  • #21
  • Apr 30, 2024 8:31am Apr 30, 2024 8:31am
Thanks for sharing results. That is more what I have to with breakout strategies with JPY. Have you added spread (how much?)? Than the results are quite good!
  • #22
  • Apr 30, 2024 8:46am Apr 30, 2024 8:46am
Quoting JackintheBox
Thanks for sharing results. That is more what I have to with breakout strategies with JPY. Have you added spread (how much?)? Than the results are quite good!
The test tool is set to 2 pips spread.

Here are the results for the last month with USDJPY. TP were only hit 2 times.
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  • #23
  • Apr 30, 2024 8:59am Apr 30, 2024 8:59am
See - this is interesting. I have removed the close at EOD. Så the trade continue until TP or SL.

5 months of data. Winning is 33% of Equity. Each trade has risk 1%. And gains are invested.
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MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #24
  • Apr 30, 2024 9:04am Apr 30, 2024 9:04am
Quoting RiskFighter
See - this is interesting. I have removed the close at EOD. Så the trade continue until TP or SL. 5 months of data. Winning is 33% of Equity. Each trade has risk 1%. And gains are invested. {image}
And then I like to play with risk setting. If it is profittable at 1% risk, then you can risk more. So if risking 5% then the profit is 20.000$ on a 10.000$ account. And the equity were never below 10.000$. Still 5 months of data.
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MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #25
  • Apr 30, 2024 9:05am Apr 30, 2024 9:05am
Quoting RiskFighter
See - this is interesting. I have removed the close at EOD. Så the trade continue until TP or SL. 5 months of data. Winning is 33% of Equity. Each trade has risk 1%. And gains are invested. {image}
My backtest is with close at EOD off. That’s the discrepancy I believe
  • #26
  • Apr 30, 2024 9:13am Apr 30, 2024 9:13am
I now used the Williams Percent Range indicator as a filter. That gave no differens. So forget that.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #27
  • Apr 30, 2024 9:13am Apr 30, 2024 9:13am
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} My backtest is with close at EOD off. That’s the discrepancy I believe
ahh yes. Nice to find that explanation.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #28
  • Apr 30, 2024 9:34am Apr 30, 2024 9:34am
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} My backtest is with close at EOD off. That’s the discrepancy I believe
My robot takes only 1 trade per pair in one day. So if I get a signal and the trend changes right after, then I do not trade in the new direction. How are your system working in this aspect?
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #29
  • Apr 30, 2024 9:41am Apr 30, 2024 9:41am
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} My robot takes only 1 trade per pair in one day. So if I get a signal and the trend changes right after, then I do not trade in the new direction. How are your system working in this aspect?
When there is a breakout in the opposite direction of an active breakout, previous breakout levels stop being updated. Not reaching an SL/TP level will result in a partial loss/win.

Rarely happens on daily breakouts on M15 charts
  • #30
  • Apr 30, 2024 10:22am Apr 30, 2024 10:22am
Due to my experience you have to be carefull with non-EOD settings. The problem is the roll-over. I had that few times on EUR/SEK or even USD/JPY. What happens is that in the backtest, let's say 155.55 was reached. -But that is not true. It was only the spike on the roll-over. So it was reached but the spread in that moment was for example 20 pips and not 2. So the real hit was 155.73 (18 pips higher) than it showed in the backtest. So when you need 155.60 for example than the backtest shows: Reached (low 155.55) but in reality it wasn't reached.

I don't think that is always the case here but it can influence the results a lot - depending how near you TP is set (here it should be fine but when you work with 10 pips TP the results can be messed up completely).

You can check that problem manually on 10 trades. If no winning trade of these 10 had that issue than it's fine.
  • #31
  • Edited 11:18am Apr 30, 2024 10:50am | Edited 11:18am
Quoting JackintheBox
Due to my experience you have to be carefull with non-EOD settings. The problem is the roll-over. I had that few times on EUR/SEK or even USD/JPY. What happens is that in the backtest, let's say 155.55 was reached. -But that is not true. It was only the spike on the roll-over. So it was reached but the spread in that moment was for example 20 pips and not 2. So the real hit was 155.73 (18 pips higher) than it showed in the backtest. So when you need 155.60 for example than the backtest shows: Reached (low 155.55) but in reality it wasn't reached....
Hi Jack

Yes, I know that. But it depends of your broker. I have right now 4 different brokers. And have had many others. So I am sure there is a difference. The worst broker I have in that respect is FXPro. The right word is, that they are harvesting stop losses at EOD and earn good money on that. I have often experienced that they take stop losses which their spikes does even not reach. Also their spread is 4 times higher throughout the day. But it is only a problem for scalpers and there are many good sides of that broker also, so I use them - but not for scalping.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #32
  • Apr 30, 2024 8:32pm Apr 30, 2024 8:32pm
I tested GBPJPY.
First report is at risk 1% - DrawDown 8%
Second at risk 5% - DD 30%

RiskReward is 1:3 at both.

Yes I know, never risk more than 2%. Just for the fun though.

Again report is covering 5 months.
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MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #33
  • Apr 30, 2024 8:38pm Apr 30, 2024 8:38pm
I tested other pairs also, but as expected it is the JPY pairs that works.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #34
  • Apr 30, 2024 8:47pm Apr 30, 2024 8:47pm
Quoting RiskFighter
I tested GBPJPY. First report is at risk 1% - DrawDown 8% Second at risk 5% - DD 30% RiskReward is 1:3 at both. Yes I know, never risk more than 2%. Just for the fun though. Again report is covering 5 months. {image} {image}
Nice one
  • #35
  • Apr 30, 2024 8:48pm Apr 30, 2024 8:48pm
Quoting RiskFighter
I tested other pairs also, but as expected it is the JPY pairs that works.
Yes, the profit will come easily if you stick to the simple system. The hardest part is sitting on your hands when there’s no trades, only a couple a week :/
  • #36
  • Apr 30, 2024 9:09pm Apr 30, 2024 9:09pm
AUDJPY

different position size
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  • #37
  • Edited 5:06am May 1, 2024 2:55am | Edited 5:06am
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} Yes, the profit will come easily if you stick to the simple system. The hardest part is sitting on your hands when there’s no trades, only a couple a week :/
Right. We need to have something going on. So I tested the rest of the JPY pairs. And have added GBPJPY and NZDJPY. CHFJPY is no good.

Of cause the pairs are synchronous to some extent and it is a problem if I have 6 pairs trading some day in the same direction and they all loos. But I will get more trades. Then I can reduce the risk in every trade accordingly. It will be more fun.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #38
  • May 1, 2024 3:04am May 1, 2024 3:04am
syncrones?
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #39
  • May 1, 2024 4:13am May 1, 2024 4:13am
Quoting axecap
syncrones?
Sorry. I am not good at the english language. Dictionary say "synchronous".
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #40
  • May 1, 2024 4:14am May 1, 2024 4:14am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Does Size Matter ? {image} {image} {image}
Size of what?
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
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