EURUSD only

Quick H1 Outlook for Monday

1. So far, bears did really well, dragging price below 1.070x and keeping it that way until market close.
2. Now we must wait and see if bears can protect 1.0702 area and then push through the temporary buffer for new lows.
3. If yes, we go deeper, simple.
4. If no, a retest towards ~1.0725 area can delay and even cancel the expected bearish continuation.
5. Long story short: For Monday, I am planning to sell spikes and pullbacks as long as we are below the 1.0725-ish zone.

The uptrend is not yet over.. according to the recent cot report shows next week we sell first then buy later ; probably during fomc or nfp. The overall bias will be bullish though

EUR/USD closed the week between the 1.0643 and 1.0764 Fibonacci levels, with a potential to reach the lower level. However, a daily close above 1.0700 could signal a reversal in the trend and potentially lead the pair towards the higher level. More levels on the daily chart. Also it's essential to keep an eye on the market reaction to the events below and be prepared for potential volatility.

CFTC Positions in the week ended April 23rd turned from long EUR/USD to short: net short position is -9,989 contracts. It's important to note that while the CFTC report can provide valuable insights, it is not a definitive predictor of future price movements.

Weekly volatility (range) 107 pips

Option expiries for Monday: 1.0750 (EU1.38b), 1.0710 (EU686m) source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US JOLTS Job Openings, US Interest Rate Decision, FOMC, US Trade Balance, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Factory Orders & US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Daily


Have a great rest of the weekend.

Quick MONTHLY Outlook

1. Two more days left until end of month, and it looks like we will have ourselves a breakout candle!
2. If so, we can try to sell ~1.0918 area if bulls get there. The point to keep in mind is that bears will be stronger inside May, even while bulls are trying!
3. I am thinking of 2 scenarios:
   1. 1) Since we are below 1.07, maybe bears will make use of this momentum and force price lower to retest 1.0550 area first before bulls try retesting the breakout area.
   2. 2) Maybe I am wrong and bulls will immediately haste back to the breakout area to jump back above the trendline with hopes to prevent a large sell-off. (i.e. last opportunity to correct course??).

4. All said, since this is the monthly we are speaking, for either case of course we have to analyze intraday timeframes but long-term wise I can say that am with bears now. Therefore, I will use all upcoming bullish rallies towards ~1.0918 as opportunities for short entries.

My two cents...

This is the trendline that you drew on the monthly chart, and I copied to the 4HR. It hits a lot of key areas and the support and resistance zones hit all the way up and down on this chart. Nice job highlighting this. I took the liberty of adding some support and resistance areas that I have been paying attention to this month.

Hi All,

This is my EURUSD 29-3 May 2024 W18 Weekly Analysis – EU GDP/CPI – US FOMC/NFP Week!

Always highly appreciate your feedback.

Amr Sadek

Quote for this month :
MAY the bears be with you

Hope you all having good weekend. As Ata as pointed out there’s 2 trading days left this month. Currently finding support at the top of October 2023’s doji candle at 1.0690. It’s risen from the lows of .96 and has been ranging for over a year now. I believe it eventually breaks out of top of range and retest the 1.17 area in the months ahead. FOMC this week maybe we’ll be back above previous support of 1.0805 which is also where the daily 200 sma is.

What happened to homies 1.054
Just kidding no offense

Quick DAILY Outlook

1. Okay folks, now that we know that bears have broken out and it can get bearish in this 2nd quarter of 2024 we still must look at the situation on DAILY to adapt to the flow, to the vibe, to the rhythm of the market. Because nothing happens in a blink of an eye. We must go step by step!
2. Since bears completed Friday with a strong bearish candle now the question is: can they break below ~1.0670, i.e.: the median line of the bearish channel?
3. If yes, ~1.0728 area will stay as main resistance and we can keep selling spikes and pullbacks.
4. If no and we notice struggle, it would signal that we might switch to trading mixed until bulls kick in, because if bears act weak, eventually bulls will take back control to prevent the potential sell-off that I mentioned on the monthly chart.

That's my two cents for now.. As always, time will tell...

Keep enjoying your Sunday folks.. Peace out...

It's cool.
We're still in a down trend. 1.054 and lower will happen.


PS. My point with the Kansas CS is that Friday's break of the retr.'s up trend is a fake.

Good evening, I hope you are doing well. For tomorrow, I have 1.0711 as resistance, and 1.0679 as support. 1H chart;

Hi,
First trade for week,

Short.

same here bro it looks like end of the ABCD correction of the last impulsive wave.

a 1% spike in USDJPY in less than a minute...

I have given my trade a bit more room though I can't see the sellers coming yet and the 4hr looks like a bullish move so I could be wasting money. Watching a TL @1.0720.

1.0720 will be a completion of a ab=cd on the 5min chart.Looking to short. went ahead and shorted at 1.0716

Bro your SSL is too tight, I think 1.0725 will be more safe. If your lot size is small and you have a big account then the best SL is 1.0760 which is above previous week candle high.

Heh I trade to my system and I do alright