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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #201
  • Jul 2, 2007 7:21am Jul 2, 2007 7:21am
Quoting jacko
Anyone else here aiming for 4000 for Fiber ? Yes...... Me.
LOL, it's alive!
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #202
  • Jul 2, 2007 11:53am Jul 2, 2007 11:53am
Quoting gagiul
Nice move on the euro these days. Jacko said that 3300 should be the bottom. Of course I didnt take his words for sure, but entered long at 3500 as well. and now I enjoy the ride Thanx Jacko.
Hi gaguil,

After bottoming out just below 1.3300 (1.3262) we are now on our way through the major resistance of 1.3666 to an initial target of 1.4500.

I think that a major sell-off of the USD is commencing / is in progress. I think it will accelerate in the medium term.

Having said that, make sure that you minimise your drawdowns. But don't lose sight of the long term trend.

But I could be wwwwrong...

See http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=28512&page=5


.
  • #203
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:44pm Jul 2, 2007 12:44pm
Quoting jacko
Hi gaguil,

After bottoming out just below 1.3300 (1.3262) we are now on our way through the major resistance of 1.3666 to an initial target of 1.4500.

I think that a major sell-off of the USD is commencing / is in progress. I think it will accelerate in the medium term.

Having said that, make sure that you minimise your drawdowns. But don't lose sight of the long term trend.

But I could be wwwwrong...

See http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=28512&page=5


.

If anyone prematurely rushed in an bought longs during the recent retracement (say 1.3500 or 1.3400), the anti-hedge strategy would have got you back any and all losses. In addition, you would now be in the trend in the right direction.

I will say it again....

The anti-hedging is VERY important to my trading. As long as I have the major trend direction correct, I cannot lose money. If I make a mistake in the short term, because of a minor retracement, then I know that I will get ALL those losses back when the market resumes its primary, dominant direction. The ONLY way to get hurt is to be wwwwwwrong on the primary trend.


.
  • #204
  • Edited 1:39pm Jul 2, 2007 1:17pm | Edited 1:39pm
For those of you who are asking why the sudden rush on selling the dollar, it is interesting to note that today is the 10th anniversary of the start of the Asian financial crisis/melt down that saw massive declines in Asian currencies (for example, in indonesia before the crisis, the exchange rate between the rupiah and the dollar was roughly 2000 rupiah to 1 USD. The rate had plunged to over 18000 rupiah to 1 USD at times during the crisis) and which led to Russia defaulting on their loans.
(Given the weakness of the US due to the massive debt that the US now has with Asia and Russia, maybe there is a bit of payback going on???)


Also, the European Central Bank will continue to signal that interest rates are headed higher. Expect ECB President Trichet to be hawkish and say that the central bank needs to be strongly vigilant (that is, expect a rate hike at the next ECB meeting).
  • #205
  • Jul 2, 2007 3:47pm Jul 2, 2007 3:47pm
Hi Jacko,

I'm just trying to work out the timeframe you base your trades on. For example I mostly use the Daily direction to determine the direction of my 4-hour chart trades. Would it be accurate for you to say you use the weekly/monthly charts to determine your trades off the daily chart?

Maybe that's a poorly worded question, OK which of these would you consider to be the daily trend? and in what direction would you consider the daily trend to be in on Jun 12? Do any of these charts correspond to what you call the primary trend?

Thanks -really appreciate your thoughts


-Jerry

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pessimism of the intellect and optimism of the will
  • #206
  • Edited 11:14pm Jul 2, 2007 11:04pm | Edited 11:14pm
Quoting jacko
For those of you who are asking why the sudden rush on selling the dollar, it is interesting to note that today is the 10th anniversary of the start of the Asian financial crisis/melt down that saw massive declines in Asian currencies (for example, in indonesia before the crisis, the exchange rate between the rupiah and the dollar was roughly 2000 rupiah to 1 USD. The rate had plunged to over 18000 rupiah to 1 USD at times during the crisis) and which led to Russia defaulting on their loans.
(Given the weakness of the US due to the massive debt that the US now has with Asia and Russia, maybe there is a bit of payback going on???)
Hello Jacko i'm from indonesia....and yes at crisis time 1 USD = Rp 18000...wew its very hard to survive in the crisis time and now we still in deep economic chaos..sory for my bad english

Jacko, Your thread is very..very...very educational...it really help me to know what is forex about and how to make money from it and your anti-hedging system is "No.1".

ps. Forex is about TREND....ride the TREND, friend with TREND and married the TREND, i learn that from Jacko...thanx very much Jacko.
  • #207
  • Jul 3, 2007 1:35am Jul 3, 2007 1:35am
Quoting jacko
For those of you who are asking why the sudden rush on selling the dollar, it is interesting to note that today is the 10th anniversary of the start of the Asian financial crisis/melt down that saw massive declines in Asian currencies (for example, in indonesia before the crisis, the exchange rate between the rupiah and the dollar was roughly 2000 rupiah to 1 USD. The rate had plunged to over 18000 rupiah to 1 USD at times during the crisis) and which led to Russia defaulting on their loans.
They are celebrating the crisis anniversary with their money. :surprised
A rush selling of USD is good for Fiber longs.
If USD grow stronger each day for months, we may have trouble with the primary trend. That's no good.
  • #208
  • Jul 3, 2007 1:36am Jul 3, 2007 1:36am
Quoting jacko
Hi gaguil,

After bottoming out just below 1.3300 (1.3262) we are now on our way through the major resistance of 1.3666 to an initial target of 1.4500.

I think that a major sell-off of the USD is commencing / is in progress. I think it will accelerate in the medium term.

Having said that, make sure that you minimise your drawdowns. But don't lose sight of the long term trend.

But I could be wwwwrong...

See http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=28512&page=5


.
Welcome back Jacko, thanx a lot for the vital information you give to us all. Im not gonna ask you any questions, because I suppose you are already bombarded with questions from all over. I just want to thank you for giving me and all the others here a new start and a new approach on Forex. I will be following your posts with a lot of interest, so whenever you have something interesting to tell us, please do so. Thank you again.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #209
  • Jul 3, 2007 1:37am Jul 3, 2007 1:37am
Quoting Lou G
I'm in a profitable long (what else?) in EURUSD right now and wonder what to do on NFP day. Would most Jacko-ites close the trade or would it be better to increase my stop?

Thanks for your help,
Lou G
Assuming I have a good profit on that trade ... I wont mind increasing my trail stop size.
  • #210
  • Jul 3, 2007 1:38am Jul 3, 2007 1:38am
Quoting Xenjin
Jacko, since your back now, I wanted to ask you:


What part does fundamental analysis play in your trading (if any)?

Hi Xenjin,

Please go here. Read post 35
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1426946#post1426946


Fundamentals are for understanding the "big Picture", but charts are used for trading.
I am a longer term trader than most traders here and so I am more "fundamentals-aware" lately. I suppose I just want to know why a market is trending in a certain direction

The longer the time frame, the more you need to be aware of the fundamentals...but I always trade off the charts.





.
  • #211
  • Jul 3, 2007 1:50am Jul 3, 2007 1:50am
Quoting luqmanz
Assuming I have a good profit on that trade ... I wont mind increasing my trail stop size.
A better alternative (for a long position) is.

Scenario 1.
1. Market shoots straight up.
2. your 50 pip trailing stop grabs most of the spike.
3. Celebrate your good fortune.

Scenario 2
1. keep your 50 pip trailing stop loss in place.
2. Have a market buy loaded into your computer ...BUT NOT ACTIVATED
3. IF you stop loss is hit, wait for downward spike to finish (maybe 100 pips), THEN hit the activation of the market order.


.
  • #212
  • Jul 3, 2007 1:56am Jul 3, 2007 1:56am
Quoting jacko
A better alternative (for a long position) is.

Scenario 1.
1. Market shoots straight up.
2. your 50 pip trailing stop grabs most of the spike.
3. Celebrate your good fortune.

Scenario 2
1. keep your 50 pip trailing stop loss in place.
2. Have a market buy loaded into your computer ...BUT NOT ACTIVATED
3. IF you stop loss is hit, wait for downward spike to finish (maybe 100 pips), THEN hit the activation of the market order.


.
That sounds great, jacko. Thanx a lot.
  • #213
  • Jul 3, 2007 8:48am Jul 3, 2007 8:48am
Hi audi4_20,johnedoe, luqmanz and goodtiding5,



Thank you


.
  • #214
  • Jul 3, 2007 9:11am Jul 3, 2007 9:11am
Quoting jacko
A better alternative (for a long position) is.

Scenario 1.
1. Market shoots straight up.
2. your 50 pip trailing stop grabs most of the spike.
3. Celebrate your good fortune.

Scenario 2
1. keep your 50 pip trailing stop loss in place.
2. Have a market buy loaded into your computer ...BUT NOT ACTIVATED
3. IF you stop loss is hit, wait for downward spike to finish (maybe 100 pips), THEN hit the activation of the market order.


.
Nice to have you back in the House you built Jacko -

What should one do if our trailing stop is hit, yet the market falls less than 100 pips and then continues to rally? Where should we get in?

Also, what type of charts do you look at for your trading - candlestick, barcharts, or line charts?

Danke.
  • #215
  • Jul 3, 2007 10:42am Jul 3, 2007 10:42am
And thanks to you, Jacko


Here, I know you think EW is completely BS and I'm with you if it's regarding complicated counts. However, I got one that totally agrees with you: Wave 5 up still in progress, 1.3800 and above very much in view

I've no real clue about EW, but it's rather simple to stick a few digits on the "corners" and say it's going up. Thought that looked like fun so I made a chart 2-3 months ago. Basically makes an EW excuse to say we're in an uptrend ;p

Not sure we'll get many more deep retraces before reaching new highs..

And a question: Do you have longer term positions running, too, besides the ones that get a 50 pip trailing stop?
I think Newbietrader mentioned you shorting off a monthly chart once on 3 brokers and then turning off the monitors / pc and going for a walk with him

I rather liked that anecdote
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #216
  • Edited Jul 5, 2007 4:56pm Jul 4, 2007 6:28pm | Edited Jul 5, 2007 4:56pm
Jacko, please take a look at my chart. Just want to know if I am drawing the trendlines and Fibo correctly. Im new to the 4h charts.

Trend breaks only traded in the direction of the daily trend, which is up, so I would only look for long positions.


(http://imageshack.us)
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  • #217
  • Jul 4, 2007 8:40pm Jul 4, 2007 8:40pm
YEOW....... shrink your charts please
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #218
  • Jul 5, 2007 12:38am Jul 5, 2007 12:38am
Quoting SeekingLight
And thanks to you, Jacko


Here, I know you think EW is completely BS and I'm with you if it's regarding complicated counts. However, I got one that totally agrees with you: Wave 5 up still in progress, 1.3800 and above very much in view

I've no real clue about EW, but it's rather simple to stick a few digits on the "corners" and say it's going up. Thought that looked like fun so I made a chart 2-3 months ago. Basically makes an EW excuse to say we're in an uptrend ;p

Not sure we'll get many more deep retraces before reaching new highs..

And a question: Do you have longer term positions running, too, besides the ones that get a 50 pip trailing stop?
I think Newbietrader mentioned you shorting off a monthly chart once on 3 brokers and then turning off the monitors / pc and going for a walk with him

I rather liked that anecdote

Dude,
It was awesome to watch that many trades being put on for such a big heap of money, $15mill, and then we just went shopping with his his wife. He was as cool as. I dont think he even thought about it all afternoon. AWESOME
  • #219
  • Jul 5, 2007 9:02am Jul 5, 2007 9:02am
Quoting johnedoe
YEOW....... shrink your charts please
Yes, please do. Here's how:

File
Save As Picture
Click "Active chart"
Change the values in the boxes to 600 x 600 (or less)

You only need do this once. Whatever resolution you enter will remain until you change it.

Thank you.
Old Benjamin was right
  • #220
  • Jul 5, 2007 9:10am Jul 5, 2007 9:10am
Quoting Hundmist
Nice to have you back in the House you built Jacko -

What should one do if our trailing stop is hit, yet the market falls less than 100 pips and then continues to rally? Where should we get in?

Also, what type of charts do you look at for your trading - candlestick, barcharts, or line charts?

Danke.
Jacko,

This is a question for me also re:anti-hedging. Earlier in the thread I read "let the reversal go a minimum of 50 pips before activating the trade in the same direction as the original trade". Why 50 (or 100)? What if it only goes South for 30?

Luv this thread...

Thank you.
Old Benjamin was right
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