DOW - PA, Stops and hedging

DOW in Expectation of the earning season?

DOW M30 Observe gap closure and D pivot in play

DOW M5/Mcandles M15 - Trending day with M5 WRB setting candle with FIB Ret and FIB Extension
Observe Daily Pivots with mid points in play

DOW M1 with Mcandles M5 trending day

DOW M1 / M5 mcandles with WRB setting candle after bouncing from the bottom line of FIB channel
Bit more on the other thread
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post14712200

yesterday DOW opened with the gaps
All nicely filled
- Gap to the last session high - filled
- Gap to the pivot - filled
-gap to the last session close - filled
Nice move in the direction of the trend on H4, H1 and M30 - trend indicated by the MAs

Looking at H4 there should be some reaction as the current PA is at the lower parameter of the channel
The coming Friday, monthly option expiration day, so some "unruly" volatility to be expected

There is nothing new to add to the way I have been trading for a long time.

Preparation to trade DOW during the coming NYSE session

DOW is currently over 150 points from las session close (+0.43% up) looking to shorts at least to the Daily Pivot, than to the last session close
Already established a short at 37967 cash, and corresponding larger position on DOW JUN 24 Quaternary (you should know why the difference)
DOW Short 37967 cash SL 150 points - This is the initial small position - testing the waters
My intention is to short DOW as the PA confirms this bias

closed the DOW shorts at 37822 (+145 points) (145 x 2 = 290 points on both primal positions, can't complain, and that before the NYSE open) not counting undeclared add on, it will be too confusing and taking too much time and concentration away from trading.

Reason, M30 and M5 possibly poised for a move up before NYSE open to the top of H4 channel
DOW has come quite fast MM in charge??? (D Pivot has been reached, and the Previous session close too. Gap has not been closed as it has to close during the active session.
Any move up to establish the larger gap will be a good place to short again. IF if land.

Will open shorts if M30 is back in play and a WRB is in place, will short when things align on MTFs, in the direction on trend on H4, and when M30 to M5 gives the inside to go short again.

M Order to go short on DOW 37941
MO DOW Short 37991
MO DOW Short 38035
When in play big adds on cards SL well above 38050
Planning to short also on the first sigh of weakness after the open

scalping DOW - shorts only

38941 triggered
edit adding to the shorts ( M5 M1 in play)
edit closed shorts 925
edit reason M30 not in play yet

38991 short triggered
gently adding to short M30 not in play yet
Edit 2.59pm M1 in play, M5 start tp be in play and so M19

closing shorts 915
Edit M1 first support, M30 not in play yet Just in case

expecting a push up , than big shorts again
having a break from posting,
Just a tester of active trading to work appetite for hard work in getting a profitable trading strategy

Edit 3:30pm London Time: During the NYSE session for a short time my multi entry positions were under water for a short time, but over all it all turned to be very profitable closed all shorts at D Pivot, just in case. M30 and M5 not in play now for shorts, and I am not going long atm
Not going to count points, too hard work for me, especially with many added positions.
Good trading to all!!!

DOW FIB EXT
EXT 224 almost reached (Fib taken from the first first impulsive thrust (during the NYSE open)
Observe also the EMA 100 with fib bands on M1, this time, often signals a reversal, to which I have committed my trades at the beginning of the session.
That might explain my commitment to add to short and close with profit the first MO which has been triggered, a bit time was needed to get the PA going south. All this stuff is simple, nothing too complicated.
Observe the importance of the prep before the session, the entries were not ideal, trades were managed to be profitable, all of them. Have not lost a single trade, including added trades, which can be of concern as protecting profits can be at times limiting profits.
As I type DOW has gone to EXT 261, which DOW often does! (DAX likes 224)
I am done for a while, M30 and M5 looking like going long, I do not have conviction to go long, although it might be profitable.
Have had a busy session so far and posting when trading makes me working hard, and less concentrating on trading.
Just have had a go at it to encourage a few who are bother to study trading and to demonstrate that it is possible to put things together, even though in isolation they look a bit suspicious. All that I am have used in todays trading I have used for a long time, other might lough at some, others might blindly follow. Keep whatever works for you, irrespective of the opinion of others!
Many good trades to all, remember 3rd Friday of the month is coming soon!!!

On M1 with M5Mcandles, WRB indicated
M30 H1 in play for longs, even H4
What a busy day, remember PA before 3rd Fri is often very surprising!!!

Busy day
in the end there were long opportunities from the bottom of Fib channel when H1,M30 M15and M5 came into play at the double bottom on H4
1 to 1 formation

observe similar compounded session volume for the last few sessions, Small Intersession Gap above and missed D Pivot

Missed D pivots on DOW daily???

last 3 years of 3rd Fridays, compare the PA on DOW daily TF
Look at seasonal chart of DOW (last 20 years)
Unrest in the Middle East might be a factor, US inflation mighty be a factor

I am done for the day, started to trade well before the US open, and have been posting my perspective and some trades.
Posting during trading time takes a lot of my concentration, but once in a while a few posts are probably permissible.
Interestingly DAX has not followed DOW or NASAQ today.
Good trades to all!!

Hey 2be,

I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw Stochastics and worse still, the famous painting Semafor on your charts. I tried both early on in my trading career and quickly dumped Stochastics but I persevered with the Semafor having been lulled into false promises by their historical charts. I did find a way to use the 3 and 2 balls but the consistency was just not there.

Any chance you can enlighten us with your use of them to produce consistent profits?

Cheers,

Hi Strat,
Good questions, I am happy to answer, thank you for asking, it shows you truly care!!!!
I do understand your concern and voicing it provides a splendid opportunity to explain myself, for which I am truly grateful to you.

Stochastics first:
I have read on Stochastics long time ago including George Lane, and others, looking and studying some other oscillators too, (like Gerald Appel on MACD, Wells Wilder on RSI, you certainly remember Wells in relation to The Delta Phenomenon, or Bill Williams - The AO and the alligator and many others) still have the books!
Have tried some of them, they have their uses, but using too many of oscillators class indicators does not make too much sense to me, just too crowded and too much info. So for many years I retained one, stochastics.

There is not a single indicator that is 100% correct in providing an insight or guidance by indicating the current state of the market on a given TF which singularly guarantee profitable trades.
I do not look to anything to predict, just to indicate the current state of price level in relation to the momentum in a possible useful manner, orderly and using a formula derived from the PA.
I use stochastics on all TFs, especially on M30, H1 H4 and on longer TFs as I keep it on majority of charts used during active trading.
I have found that on a single chart, Stochastics are of limited use to me, completely subjective point of view.
I set stochastics to 5,3,3 and add MA5 on chart corresponding to that 5,3,3 stocks set up. (long time ago I used "trigger MA, it has often been around MA5 to MA8, or a H/L - MAs channel thus created).
As an oscillator, stochastic indicator oscillates between the 85 on the top and 15 at the bottom(my elected set up), with 50 in the middle, of the 100.
Overbought and oversold can and probably are very dangerous terms, and purely based on stochastic, or on any other oscillator, especially on single TF without detailed studies and experience will proof fatal, and lead to unnecessarily larger losses.
The way I process that indication is more like "it might be or it is time to sell, to buy or to close the trade if SL of PT has not been reached", in my mind I do not use the overbought and oversold terminology at all.

For intraday trading I use M30 as orientation TF and would not go against the direction of what Stochastics are painting, having a cursory look at the MA5 and the displayed Stochastics, I am prepared to wait and be patient, that is not too bad advise for a busy body rushing to do things as they come, that is me!

For intra day M30, M5 and H4 always in the background.
When I say that for example H4 is in play for the shorts, I mean that MA5 and Stochs have turned in the direction of a major down trend, on H4 in that case.
Alternatively, if the Stochs are against the trend, indicating a move to the mean, I trade in the knowledge of a limited move with some additional risk to be well managed, and using shorter TFs to aid these trades with some idea of the amount of points available on eg M5 to M30, usually few hundreds of points in counter trend trades, ( counter to the trend on higher TFs)

I use other TFs in correlation to the H4 in that case, in other cases I use M30 to M5, or other TFs.
In the way I use the relatively sensitive momentum oscillator, set to be very sensitive indeed, but on higher TFs and with MTFs analysis it makes sense to me in the way I am describing.

I use larger monitors, with many charts all open at that same time, I do not need to switch between the all TFs I am using, and use different data feeds, different charting software all at that same time. It takes just a glance to get what I am looking for, with pretrained way I instantly interpret what I am seeing and whether the opportunity looks like worth taking the risk, how much risk ect.
I also use Stochastics to indicate divergence like on H1 on DOW during the NYSE session yesterday.
There are a few other more subjective ways I interpret what this oscillator indicates, too subjective and not central to the way I am trading.

I stress that nothing is automatic, and entries, especially the initial entries of multi position trades are made using other important principles like PASR including WRB, Pivots and a few MA with EMA 100 with FIB channel, which I use on shorter TFs and taking into account the stochastics, as a useful part of that process.
Also use Fibonacci and harmonic or symmetric moves like 1to1 or ABCD ect (more about it later in relation to semafore).
I look at confluence of things I have been using for a long time and their particular interpretation comes fast and is quickly utilised, stochastics once again are a part of that process.
There are other things I use which are specific to indices trading, they have explained in this thread, and some of them I use after the session close in preparation for the coming session.

(As I am typing I am closing shorts on DOW Quarterly futures June 24, established during the last NYSE session when H4 was starting to come into play to the short side just above 38000, closing the trade purely because H4 stochastic is at the bottom, MA5 on H4 still pointing down and H1 stochastic is flat, with MA5 on H1 still pointing down and corresponding DOW cash is below 37250 a quarter level and the PA is shooting up a bit, obviously the drop is due to the Middle East situation)

I have explained why I trade DOW cash and DOW quarterly in other posts.

I hope that the above provides some useful though selective explanation as to how and why I use Stochastics.

I will take a break now and will explain myself later in relation to how and why I use semafore.

In the meantime, I would like to express my gratitude for providing me with the opportunity to explain something I have been using for many years, and as you know, when we explain something it also has a positive influence on the one providing that explanation.

Best wishes,
2be

Hi Strat,

This post is in relation to 3_Level_ZZ_Semafor as modified by TheRumpledOne around 2008 (posts on the T2W Forum, where I came across it in 2008)

I completely understand your sincere question in relation to the profitable application of the Semafor indicator, sometimes described as the most misunderstood indicator, well the majority of indicators providing a wide scope to be well misunderstood, especially by those looking for holly grail with no or minimal amount work involved.
Below is the short history of how I came across this funny looking indicator with three different spots, repainting though one does not spend money on buying paint.

Studying Thomas DeMark and his books like "The New Science of Technical Analysis" 1994 edition pointed me at the organised look at the fractals and symmetrical moves. Fractals led me to Zigzags, waves, order and chaos fibs ect. So apart of studying books by Thomas DeMark, I carefully studied authors like Robert R Prechter, Robert C Miner (Dynamic Trader), Carolyn Boroden, Bill Williams(Trading Chaos-second edition)and many others too many to mention.
ZigZags are the basis of the semafor indicator, and fractals are the basis of ZigZags.
R Miner Dynamic Trading software developed for Elliott Waves in mind with all different Fibs features provides possibility that waves are displayed within the waves, (there are other charting softwares which can be programmed to display similar charts) or ZigZags of various levels which are displayed within the primary ZigZag, - that in short is the semafor indicator.

Semfor does display 3 levels of these Zig Zags (waves) in one go. That is a formidable amount of displayed information based on data provided by pure PA which creates fractals. Fractals themselves are defined in an orderly manner and classified as fractals of various degrees.
Is it order in chaos, or chaotic order? The discussion/s continue.
When these fractals are joined with a lines, ZigZags - waves are created, and that is leading to another area of what to do with these waves, Elliott Waves, Harmonic waves ect. One can say that all of it is too much info, and to a degree I sympathise with that sentiment. I treat the importance (weight) of displayed levels in relation to the TF, from monthly to M1.

Looking at semafor demands a prior awareness of its genesis, and that demands careful study and work. Instead of that some choose to chaise false promises of achievement without exerting much of the necessary effort, sadly this is not a new phenomenon, and in case of trading the results are very immanent.
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...7?d=1713557606

Of course there is much more details to it, but this kind of shortcut and selective explanation might be of some assistance on the subject of this particular indicator.

Depending upon understanding and due application of that understanding the semafor indicator can lead, or be a part of a very profitable strategy, and misunderstanding of this indicator without a doubt leads to losses. Indicators. Semafor is not an exception can be compared to fire, one can cook a dinner on it, while other can burn the house with it, the choice is very personal and subjective.

Repainting is the internal and indispensable part of that indicator irrespective weather one likes it or not.
Please do some further study on the subject, plenty available on internet.

In short I follow the displayed levels unless I have reason and indication that it might not repaint, I use MTFs approach.
When eventually the 3 level is well established, I treat it as significant zone, look at the context, use other TFs and make my decisions.
The statistics tells us that the establish trend holds at least 3 out of 4 , or 75% of the given PA on a given TF.
There is a lot on internet on that subject, how this indicator is so badly misunderstood.
By giving some however selective background, you are likely assured that I do not use it thoughtlessly, just because something has been painted or repainted.

Once again one TF is not enough for me in that respect, but each separate TF has its practical and profitable application.

Sorry for taking breaks and time answering your very good questions.
Strat it is out of my respect to you that I have taken this time and tried to provide limited but workable explanation to the utmost of my ability, by no means comprehensive or perfect, but hope some of it is useful, absolutely there is nothing new in what I have posted. I will not be offended by criticism, as it will only sharpen my resolve to work harder and come with something hopefully better.
What has not been helpful to me is the fact that still after moving home over three years ago my books, many books, trading books included are all over the place, and while writing this two posts I was keen to check things using them after wasting lots of time finding particular books in the first place.

Other side usage of semafor is that I am able quickly to identified points from where to draw Fibs, in a manner I have already described on this thread, either FIB Retracements together with FB Extensions (Both ways) in one go and the APP.

I hope you know why I could not litter PASR tread with this stuff, sowing confusion and being disrespectful.

Strat my very best wishes to you,

Kind regards,
2be

PS
Have a look at DOW, a good move to the top of the channel on H4, well signalled by the stuff I have been writing about.
Big amount of points, H4 has a habit of retesting the trending channel/s, patience and time is required.
I follow the world developments and news, and because of it I have been in front of monitors when things happened in the Middle East, have been in constant contact with my friends in Israel. First the attack as a response, that the response not that threatening, and the PA back where it has been.
On the top it is 3rd Fri of the month, so ... I need some more coffee....

Taking a break for a while, a busy hours, H4 , M30, H1 even M15 move up looks tired, possibly getting ready to go south at least for a while, or for a few hundreds points on the DOW.
In addition MO set to go short above 38045, otherwise continue with the move south following the freshly printed yellow Suns of the semafor indicator.(LOL)
Taken 75 points ( a bit of Mickey Mouse)- the last trade, closing all shorts. Flat atm
Patience required, especially after such good moves, earlier on.

4:30pm London Time
Have had a busy and LLLLong day, taking the break, MOs cancelled,

Wishing good weekend to all,
2be

Peace after the session close at my empty trading desk

Will do the usual work after the session close in readiness for the next week and have a little something

DOW weekly


DOW Daly missed pivots


DOW Daily 3rd Fridays


DOW M30 Sessions


Busy weekend, away on Sunday and Monday.

Enjoy the weekend!
2be

2be, thank you very much for taking your valuable time to reply in such a detailed and thorough manner.

Your journey to get where you are now follows the one I took albeit that we have similar but different ways of how we trade to achieve consistency and profit which really is the Holy Grail of trading for profit -"find what works for you".

Although you said you explained why you trade the DOW, I can't get my thick head around it. I have traded S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW and RUSSELL and while each has its pros and cons, I keep coming back to S&P 500 because, for me, there are more pros than cons.

We are going on our "Farewell Tour" back to West Yorkshire (and beyond) leaving on May 4th and returning on May 19th. We normally go for 4 weeks but we both miss the California climate. If we could transport our friends and family here, it would be our Holy Grail of Life. I normally trade while I travel but the Big Boss made me promise to not even take my laptop let alone think of trading (women are so wise!)

Once again, 2be. thank you for your very important contributions to our "Trading World"

Cheers

Hi Strat,

My wife is from Leeds, and we are occasionally visiting Yorkshire, we still have a lot of family there, we love Yorkshire and the surrounding hills and valleys, best of all the people!!!

Tanks for your post, I have tried to be concise, with enough stuff so you could make sense of it all. I have read your posts and understand to a degree the path you have taken, including Delta Phenomenon . I am absolutely sure that there is nothing new for you that I have posted, and what I have mentioned has been intended as explanation as to how I (very subjectively) apply it to trading.
Trading mainly DOW helps me to be focussed on one instrument, and try to read the manipulation when it happens, at times it is very enjoyable, sometimes a bit more stressful, and testing my patience. Over the years I have got used to all that "unusual" stuff that is going on at times, and when I am correct, trading the larger than usual multientry positions bring very good results.

Have a safe journey and a very enjoyable time consuming mountains of Yorkshire puddings, Eccles cakes and a good quantity of fish and chips!!!

Regards and very best wishes!
2be