Pips, charts and trades

LUX trading results + LUX small trading talks
I would name this week "one hit" right on target. The EUR/USD trade I closed yesterday (watch the video) increased the account balance by 3.12%, and increased the profitability this month to 6.29%.
After the Euro Dollar broke through the weekly EMA 200, the probability of continued growth increased and I was sure that the uptrend would continue. The daily and four-hour MACD moved into the positive area and this is a great confirmation signal for growth.
There is a weak divergence on the MACD so far, but it may become even smaller if the increase continues to the EMA 100 on the monthly chart, which is now at 1.14300. However, the overbought market may lead to a short term correction before the likely resumption of growth. The EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines shows the marker levels of support 1.11100 and 1.10370

Two GBP/USD trades that I opened yesterday were closed today, both at the take profit level. This allowed me to enter positive profitability in August (the month started with a loss of -1.72%), which is currently 1.79%.
I expected that the take profit level would be reached a little earlier. Half an hour after the open, the market really started moving down, but it was not enough to break through the EMA 200 on the 30-minute chart. After 12 hours, the price again reached the EMA level and after a short term horizontal movement, this level was overcome and GBP/USD fell to take profit values of 1.27451 and 1.27433 and is now at the level of 1.27000, which means that further reaching 1.26800 and 1.26180 is possible.

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY trades are closed at the take profit level. Fairly fast trading on the correction after the fall.
Euro Dollar touched the EMA 100 line on the daily chart and formed a slight divergence on the 4-hour chart. If the EMA 100 at 1.09050 is crossed, then a further fall will have a high probability to the level of the EMA 200 on the daily chart 1.08000. But at the moment, the Euro Dollar has begun a correction movement and the probability of the uptrend continuing also remains.

The EUR/USD is reaching the historical key level of 1.06375, which may stop the current decline and become a turning point for a short-term correction. Also, I would like to mention the marker support at 1.07000, which currently has an impact on the market and if the price level falls below it, then a further fall to 1.06375 will be highly likely.
The euro dollar finally broke out of the uptrend, breaking through its support after a short-term rise to 1.09445. The MACD on the daily chart makes it clear that further decline will continue despite the RSI being close to oversold. This and the formed divergence on the hourly chart, may be signals for short-term growth, similar to one that was at the end of August. The estimated level that can be reached during the correction is EMA 200 on the daily chart 1.08000 and also historical 1.08400. However, I consider a return to the trend area to be unlikely and at the moment I expect a continuation of the fall to 1.06375 and further to 1.05300.
In the long term on the weekly chart, the MACD signal and position of the EMA lines, as well as the position of the RSI line, gives reason to believe that we should expect a long term decline.

Are you waiting for a bounce up from the channel on the 30m or 1H?

While the downward trend on the daily chart has finally broken through the support of the upward weekly trend, expanding its possible channel, I propose to consider a more local situation.
The four-hour chart clearly shows a correction that has gone beyond the descending channel. The prospect of a return to the longer-term uptrend remains intact. However, if the marker support level of 1.05300 is broken, the probability of returning to the channel will increase and I will expect a fall to 1.05000 and possibly to 1.04500. The intersection of EMA lines on the daily chart is confirmation of a possible fall. It is also worth noting that on the four-hour MACD shows a strong selling trend, while moving into the area of negative values.
In addition to the fact that I am considering the possibility of a decline within the trend, I would like to mention the fact that the daily MACD has a fairly confident growing trend, despite this contradicts the EMA positions. Therefore, I will consider the EMA 100 level 1.05830 on the four-hour chart as a marker for possible growth to the key resistance 1.06375. Moreover, the price level is now close to the correction channel support area and further decline will mean the end of this local correction trend.

My analysis for the EUR/USD came true in the short term and the market really began to rise after passing through the EMA 100 on the four-hour chart at 1.05830. Having reached the level of 1.06375, a false breakout was attempted, which was a rather interesting moment that I closely monitored. And as you can see, two recent trades are profitable, maintaining the trend of stable profits for the 5th month in a row, after a fairly quiet May.
I will publish the next analytics later.

The EUR/USD pair continues to grow. The resistance level of 1.07000 was very confidently broken with continued growth to 1.07500. The current resistance can be visualized as the EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines on the daily chart. Despite the fact that they have already been passed, for now I would not rule out a possible false breakout. This is evidenced by the weak MACD divergence on the hourly chart and the continued intersection of EMA 100 and EMA 200 in the direction of further decline. That is, I can conclude that in the short term a decline is possible under the influence of resistance levels and also some overbought market conditions after a sharp increase and destruction of the downward trend. But in a four-hour and daily perspective, I see a high probability of reaching the resistance level at the 200 weekly EMA, which is now in the resistance area of 1.08200. This level will later become a marker level for further growth to 1.10000 and 1.11000. If the short-term correction is too deep and creates conditions for selling, then the level of 1.06375 will likely be reached again and will be a marker for a further fall to 1.05300.
Probably today the market will begin to move as part of a short-term drawdown, so I will closely monitor market processes and if the trading conditions and the indicators of the algorithms are appropriate, then I will consider the opportunity to trade on the movements described above.

Let's summarize the results of the first trading month of 2024.

6 trades and all of them are sell.
5 of 6 trades were profitable (83%).
The account growth is 8.78%.
All profitable trades are quite accurate and confident.

Considering that LUX had holidays trading pause in January, I believe that the result is very good and can be characterized as a projection of the work done last year.
LUX starts the year very confidently and precisely.
Detailed trading information is published on myfxbook account page.

EUR/JPY trade analysis which was closed yesterday with a loss of -1.63%.

The trade lasted 3 hours 12 minutes and covered -55.0 pips.
On the daily, four-hour and hourly charts there was a strong MACD signal to continue the fall, while the uptrend channel on the daily chart was previously broken after falling below 161.500 and breaking the EMA 200 level on the four-hour chart. Also, the EMA on the hourly and four-hour charts were above the price level, which suggested a further fall possibility.

I set my take profit above the EMA 100 level on the daily chart. The stop loss was set above the four-hour EMA 200 level in case it was broken and to avoid further losses.
Divergence on short-term time frames was not taken into account and in vain. You can see that shortly before the opening, a divergence began to form on the MACD, which eventually ended in growth.

The conclusion that I could draw is that a further fall is not excluded and I may return to selling EUR/JPY later. Also, I would note the importance of considering both long-term and short-term time frames, as this can help you make money and not lose.

Long-term analysis of the EUR/JPY shows a clearly visible divergence, each new high of the current uptrend reaches lower values on the MACD. However on the monthly chart the clear convergence is formed and the key level of 170.00 (which was previously reached in 2008) is seen as a target for further growth.
The distribution of indicators suggests that:
- Before a new attempt to reach 170.00 within the current global trend, the correction is highly possible.
- On lower time frames the market will test the current local maximum of 165.350
- In case of 165.350 confidently broken, then the divergence will probably continue and the fall will be started from the level 170.00
- If the local maximum is not broken and the price begins to fall, then it is probably the start of the correction, which could continue to 162.700 and lower to the daily EMA 100 and key support 160.300.
In this situation, it is also important to note that on the four-hour chart the price level is paced higher than EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines, which is a signal of further growth. The marker levels to pay attention to in case of buy are: 165.00 and 165.350, in case of sell are: 163.500 (coinciding with the four-hour EMA 100) and 162.700 (in the area of influence of the EMA 200).
I will continue to monitor the situation on EUR/JPY and am going to enter the market to catch movements on the hourly and four-hour charts between the marker and key levels that I indicated.

There are four successful trades were closed on GBP/JPY during the growth and following correction on April 8-9. The MACD indicated further growth, while the EMA lines became far below the price level on short-term and long-term time frames. Moreover, the key resistance at 192.130 was not strong enough to stop further breakout and growth.
I was counting on a more volatile rise to 193.500 and a sharp drop back to the level of the current price, but unfortunately, I had to trade fewer points and close buy trades earlier. After a successful long, I waited for the correction to begin and started short with the aim of falling to the key level 192.130 area. As you can see from my trading statement, these sell trades were also profitable.
As a final statement, I would like to note the dawdown during sell trades and the risk of further growth when the price reached 192.860. There are a few things I can take away from this situation:
- I will work on improving the exit from the market, because the buy profit could have been taken at the maximum level of 192.860.
- The good point is that I did not close the loss at the top, knowing that according to my data, a correction will follow.

The current Bitcoin fluctuations is part of a correction that has a horizontal channel between the key levels of 60K and 73K. At the same time, on the daily chart it is clear that the level of 60k is strengthened by the influence of EMA 100, but with some divergence and the prospect of MACD entering the zone of negative values.
The weekly chart shows pure convergence and a preliminary increase in the probability of crossing the signal line as a sell signal. Thus, if the 60k level is broken below, then I will expect a likely further decline to 50k, where the daily EMA 200 line has been formed and also the key support of 51k, which will prevent the decline.
But in the short term, I see that growth is also possible, at least within the current horizontal channel with the initial marker level at 65k. Moreover, the four-hour MACD shows initial signal to buy. In case of 65k level breaking through the level of previously maximum point 73k may be a significant resistance for further growth of BTC. And further 73k level passing will open up new prospects for Bitcoin and make it possible to realize the potential for maximum historical values, but I suppose that for now it is quite moderate (75-80k).
I see prospects for further growth within the horizontal channel, but I suggest keeping an eye on the marker and key levels of 60k and 73k, a breakthrough of which will mean a unidirectional movement.

EUR/USD took a break before possible growth. The current Weekly Euro Dollar chart suggests two key aspects that can be identified: the intersection of the EMA 100 and 200 lines, which is a signal of a possible continuation of growth, and the MACD moving into the positive values zone with a confident margin and convergence with the upward local trend. It is also important to note that the recent growth last week allowed to cross the EMA 100 at 1.08230 on the weekly chart and even form the initial MACD signal. I believe that we can now consider the possibility of further growth on the weekly chart with the goal of reaching the EMA 200 at the key level of 1.09750. This growth will be possible only after the completion of the local correction and further breaking through the key level of 1.08850.
It is also possible to expand the current correction if the marker level 1.08350 is broken and the uptrend is changed, after the daily EMA 100 and 200 crosses at 1.08000. This option will open up the prospect of a fall to the level of 1.07300.

LUX trading today was quick and didn't follow any long term goals. The task was to catch the minimum impulse after the impact of key historical levels.
The EUR/USD was close to continuing to rise and I was ready to accept some drawdown, but the sell chosen due to a clear MACD signal on the 30-minute chart and a high RSI level in the overbought zone. The price was not ready to break through the key level of 1.08800 and consolidate for further testing of 1.08900.
The GBP/JPY is currently in a very promising position for continued growth. But I was not ready to hold the position for a long time, fearing the psychological aspect and the growth cancelling due to the approach to 70 RSI and the long term developing MACD divergence, which can be seen on the hourly chart. I opened a short-term position after several attempts to break through the 200.400 and MACD signal with a move to the positive value zone on the 15-minute chart. However, the important fact is that after breaking through the 2015 high key level at 196.00, GBP/JPY has not been at its current price level above the 200.00 mark since 2008.