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Forex - A negative sum game for losers

  • #761
  • Mar 9, 2024 11:54pm Mar 9, 2024 11:54pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} This sentence alone tells every real trader what you are and where you will end. Case closed.
I did always use 400:1, and made very good money from using it. All leverage does is give you the ability to trade a bigger lot size. It has nothing to do with your system or signals. Where did I end? Well, I seldom trade currency now that the CFTC lowered the max leverage to 50:1. You have to remember that killed majority of the US traders when that happened. Why? Because overnight I needed to have 8x the money in my account as I did at 400:1 to trade the same number of lots. Right now, to trade 10 full lots, I would need around $30K in my account. I have to maintain $50K in my options account as it is, (because as a pattern day trader, you need to have a $25K minimum but I have too many open trades at any given time to keep less than $50K in it), and I just don't make the money in currency to justify another $30K in an account. So I just keep $5K in it to be able to trade 1-2 full lots periodically. Leverage makes a BIG difference in lot size and thus profit. I used to be able to trade 8 lots and make $1600 on a trade, and now that same trade is only one lot and $200. Not enough bang for the buck; I make more money trading options.
  • #762
  • Mar 10, 2024 6:55am Mar 10, 2024 6:55am
You can go unregulated and get 500:1 easily nowadays.
ForexOrderFlow.com Return This Year: 13.9%
  • #763
  • Mar 10, 2024 5:00pm Mar 10, 2024 5:00pm
Quoting Ryan420
You can go unregulated and get 500:1 easily nowadays.
I tried that for about four months after they changed the US limit. Everything was fine until I tried to get my money out. Then I found out I violated all sorts of "rules" they had, so I barely got my initial deposit back, but they kept 99% of the profit that I made in that time. So no, I'm not going to trade so someone else keeps my profit.
  • #764
  • Mar 10, 2024 5:41pm Mar 10, 2024 5:41pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Nothing an indicator like the RSI is telling you is not already there in the price data. It is just an other way to display price data with a certain time lag. You can't predict price with RSI in a way you could extract money out of forex pair.
I disagree wholeheartedly it’s definitely possible to extract money out of forex pair with RSI or other indicators… there’s many other variables besides the indicator
SKQT - Super Kool Quant Trader
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  • #765
  • Mar 10, 2024 5:53pm Mar 10, 2024 5:53pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
The snake oilers are clogging the thread.... Don't waste your time and money on retail forex trading. It will always come down to the very same conclusion: Retail forex trading is a negative sum game for losers. All evidence supports this claim and as long as retail forex trading is offered to you by forex brokers, it remains true.
I’m no snake oiler but there can be success in forex for retail traders… just gotta put in the work. I’m not there yet but i’m on my way.
SKQT - Super Kool Quant Trader
Daily Remy All Time Return: 5.6%
  • #766
  • Mar 11, 2024 7:27am Mar 11, 2024 7:27am
Quoting TudorIoan
It's fkn incredible how people still come over to show off some grid-martie-alogos kind of stuff (in progress only, failing to include the black swan event real possibility for the long run) as an argument that the Forex market randomeness can be actually beaten. I mean people playing the FX game for years !! Are they trying to be subtle funny, are they just stupid kids... or maybe just common morons ?!? Funny, anyways They use to call themselves lucky ...but they all end up like ...below {image}
Here!...
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Why don't you check out the thread I started showing the real time trades with charts? Predicting Short-Term Direction and S/R Using Indicators Apparently you just aren't a good trader, and that is fine because everyone can't be good at everything, but to have such a misguided view of trading as to say it can't be done just because you can't make money at it really just puts you in a bad light. So what if you can't trade? Find something you can do and you'll be a lot happier. Probably. I wish that for you, though, because you seem stressed...
You don't even read the thread... Never mind, don't read, ...you don't get shit anyways!
Member
  • #767
  • Edited Mar 12, 2024 2:50am Mar 11, 2024 7:35am | Edited Mar 12, 2024 2:50am
Ok, looks like you need me to spell it down for you again, you dumb sick idiots!
I'll put it as simply as possible for you, pathetic fucks

Just follow the pics, duhhh!
There you have it!! A Forex Factory trading guru's recent "work"... (check the data, Feb. 2024)
Outstanding "trend", huh ?!? After more than 10 years in trading, this is all he can make out of it ...RRR 1:20 scalping
Forget it, he hid the TE right after breaking his neck
And this snake oiler call it a "family" his thread followers ...Jeeeeeeeeeez, fkn pathetic!

All of you losers were for a while on the right side of the trend ...but now you cry like babies here
The more you lose, the more you get angry on people who expose your sick addiction
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Member
  • #768
  • Mar 11, 2024 10:24am Mar 11, 2024 10:24am
Quoting TudorIoan
Ok, looks like you need me to spell it down for you again, you dumb sick idiots! I'll put it as simply as possible for you, pathetic fucks J {image}
I guess I am just confused how you can claim that your EA has been running in the green since 2014 (10years) and still say that you can not make money in forex. I'm guessing you were not honest about having an EA running in the green for 10 years.

You say the people commenting on this thread "cry like babies", but they just offer their opinion; YOU are the on that has a tantrum and starts cursing and calling names because people aren't listening to you and agreeing with you. Perhaps you were raised as a spoiled, only child that always got their way and if not, a tantrum ensued. I hope you weren't, but I suppose that would be preferable than to think you have become like that on your own. When you become an adult, the tantrums and name calling draws no respect, it only leads people to the conclusion that you are still very young and immature (especially with the overuse of the "cute" little emoticons). It makes people think you are incapable of a real conversation and they don't take you seriously. If you want to lead people to your line of thinking, stop cursing at them and calling them names. Otherwise, people will respond outlandishly just to watch you flop and twitch.
  • #769
  • Mar 12, 2024 2:32am Mar 12, 2024 2:32am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} I guess I am just confused how you can claim that your EA has been running in the green since 2014 (10years) and still say that you can not make money in forex. I'm guessing you were not honest about having an EA running in the green for 10 years. You say the people commenting on this thread "cry like babies", but they just offer their opinion; YOU are the on that has a tantrum and starts cursing and calling names because people aren't listening to you and agreeing with you. Perhaps you were raised as a spoiled, only child that always got...
No tantrums here, budy. Can't you see that I'm just laughing...
Look here again! hohoho!

Yeah, my EA still works in green, but so small that I would have made much more with passive investment instead. Any dumb FX-guru can do that. That's why I am not so proud of it.
In fact, I wish everyone success in FOREX trading, but I just don't think it's possible in the long run
So, you better keep your calm...
Member
  • #770
  • Mar 12, 2024 9:59am Mar 12, 2024 9:59am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} No tantrums here, budy. Can't you see that I'm just laughing... Look here again! hohoho! Yeah, my EA still works in green, but so small that I would have made much more with passive investment instead. Any dumb FX-guru can do that. That's why I am not so proud of it. In fact, I wish everyone success in FOREX trading, but I just don't think it's possible in the long run So, you better keep your calm...
I did not realize that you were just joking around. I took all the cursing and calling of names and the smiley faces as you being upset (i.e. a tantrum), but if that is not the case, I sincerely apologize. It was, apparently, a misunderstanding on my part and for that I am truly sorry.

But just take a look at my thread. I am showing trades in real time with the charts to annotate my thought process, and make pretty consistent profit. These are the same strategies I was using back in 2007-2010 before the CFTC changed the rules. They worked then and still work now. I guess that is why I take offense to people that try and discourage others by saying you can't make consistent money in forex, because I know for a fact that you can. Not everyone will be able to make money, but it is possible. Some don't make money trading because they change strategies every week or two, or try to make the money without putting in the work needed by trying to copy someone else without knowing trading basics, or want a computer program to make the money for them. Some of those might be successful, but most will not be. But I don't think I am some guru at trading, I think I just found strategies that work, spent enough time in front of the computer to know the charts well, and stick with the same strategy. I try to keep trading as simple as possible, and in 2 weeks have made over 400 pips profit. Depending on your lot size, that can be very good money. No magical method, just chart observations.

Remember, a $300/month profit in forex may be life changing to someone, so to discourage people from trying may prevent them from ever achieving that. I just don't think that is fair, and I think that people should take every opportunity available to them to better their life, whether that is trading currency or going to school or opening their own business. Because if you don't try, you KNOW what the outcome is going to be.
  • #771
  • Mar 26, 2024 9:53am Mar 26, 2024 9:53am
This is relevant also for retail forex trading. It is the core of why retail forex traders lose money so consistently:

Jeff Yass / Susquehanna

.....Asked to describe his approach to trading at Susquehanna, Yass once reached for a poker analogy. “If you’re the sixth-best poker player in the world and you play with the five best players, you’re going to lose,” he said. “If your skills are only average, but you play against weak opponents, you’re going to win.”
That philosophy along with, Yass freely admits, a lot of luck, has made him a billionaire many times over.

Weak in regards to retail forex or retail crypto trading is similar to leverage. In a zero sum close to random market the market participant with the bigger capital base has a huge statistical edge and will win in the long run almost with a 100% certainty..... sounds familiar, does it?

The whole article is a must read:
https://www.propublica.org/article/j...-tax-avoidance

As a bonus you might understand what is happening at Digital World Acquisition Corp.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DWAC/financials

Someone is gaming it for a nice pump and dump.....
This will come back to hunt the individuals involved. The bet is Trump becomes president and kills any investigation into it.
Better make sure America someone is losing his bet.
  • #772
  • Mar 28, 2024 2:05am Mar 28, 2024 2:05am
Quoting HudithePfupf
The bet is Trump becomes president and kills any investigation into it. Better make sure America someone is losing his bet.
The Big Red Clown and his army of angry clowns have their own internet cult now. Acolytes can put their trashy maniacal obssesions on some social network ...and their money too ...to grow Red Daddy's capital now ...Geeez, have you seen his red face lately, ...he's fkn changed, you can tell he is really happy now, ...he doesn't look like a constipated pig anymore these days ...maybe it's the Bible effect

As the bitcoin chart started as The-Index-of-the-Hate-against-the-System and now is a "great financial asset" because the most of the people are financial-blind and miserable losers in life and hate is a powerfull thing, The Red Clown's social network will follow the same tune. Some say the Crazy Baron's network is overrated now ...but in fact they underestimate the power of hate and mass stupidity
Member
  • #773
  • Apr 3, 2024 2:49am Apr 3, 2024 2:49am
The risk is less than the risk of building and operating a factory, establishing retail chain stores, plus almost every single business activity, even of that of opening a grocery store.
  • #774
  • Apr 8, 2024 2:15am Apr 8, 2024 2:15am
It is a zero sum game. If everybody is winning, where does the money come from? There must be some losers.
  • #775
  • Apr 8, 2024 11:45pm Apr 8, 2024 11:45pm
Quoting antonyyu
It is a zero sum game. If everybody is winning, where does the money come from? There must be some losers.
Wow! Brilliant! How come we didn't realize it from the very beginning? Thanks, Anton!
Member
  • #776
  • Apr 9, 2024 8:35pm Apr 9, 2024 8:35pm
Quoting antonyyu
It is a zero sum game. If everybody is winning, where does the money come from? There must be some losers.
There often are situations where both traders are winning.
Traders on the Day charts who are closing profits from long term positions to scalpers who are closing profits from short term positions.

Both are winning

And HFT Algorithms almost always win against traders that generally have win rates of about 60% average win rate statistically. Therefore more trades results in both sides wining the trade however the losing trades generally result in far larger losses.

Don’t you think the winning trade you took last night was probably from a big player winning bigger than you.

PS. Of course that’s the theory but in reality Buyers and Sellers don’t meet - only the pool of liquidity wins is nearer to the fact.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #777
  • Edited 2:49am Apr 10, 2024 2:29am | Edited 2:49am
Quoting antonyyu
It is a zero sum game. If everybody is winning, where does the money come from? There must be some losers.
Actually it's very simple.
Hint:
It's not a negative sum game of volumes, ...it's a negative sum game of losers !

You only think in terms of volumes, buddy.
Sure, suppose a JP Morgan high roller closes his long pulling out of the pool about 100K. By that he rips off some other 100 retail schmucks who also close their shorts worthing 1K each. There it is, a (particular) zero sum of volumes! And you can extend this concept to the entire market. Seems right.
But you see... volumes - traders!
OK, only one guy rips off 100 other guys. This is when they call: "99% of our clients lose money"
Have you ever wondered why ALL brokers always report more than 50% losers? Because it never happens to see disclosures like : "only 34% of our clients lose money".
...and it's almost never like 50-50% winners-losers in this game as it should be in the long run on normal distribution.
If it would be like that, you'd see this super-advertise on every wall and the brokers would call it on loudspeakers in the streets... Because even a fair normal distribution would be a fantastic deal for this game.

Well, now you might think the game it also could be like 99-1% winners-losers, sometimes. Why not 100 small to fuck up one big ?
Nope. It's never like this. (GameStop was an exception of unfair/inefficient market, so it's irrelevant to the case)

The funny thing is that it's never the other way round like 99-1% winners-losers. Because the big boys, big volumes, ALWAYS wipes out multiple small volumes.
One big player always rips off multiple small players... it's not a paradox, it's in the numbers.

This is a negative sum of losers.
Member
  • #778
  • Apr 10, 2024 3:17am Apr 10, 2024 3:17am
Quoting RickM
{quote} There often are situations where both traders are winning. Traders on the Day charts who are closing profits from long term positions to scalpers who are closing profits from short term positions. Both are winning And HFT Algorithms almost always win against traders that generally have win rates of about 60% average win rate statistically. Therefore more trades results in both sides wining the trade however the losing trades generally result in far larger losses. Don’t you think the winning trade you took last night was probably from a big...
Wow. I haven't really thought about it before. Thanks, man!
  • #779
  • Apr 13, 2024 6:13am Apr 13, 2024 6:13am
The hush money case starting next week was fully blocked and obstructed for 4 years while Trump was president and then 3 years more even after the point it was totally clear Trump is guilty as fuck as individual Nr.1 and has to be locked up for it.

This will be a test if the US justice system is fuctioning. Cohen went to prison for what Trump ordered him to do. It is a simple case already 100% proven before a judge. I predicted this will happen in 2018 and here we go starting next week.

The obstruction Trump did with the direct help of Bill Barr is the even bigger crime.
I hope they adress that accordingly and at least tripple his sentence.

Probabilty that Trump loses this case is 99% in my opinion.
I hope the punishment he gets is actually jail time, significant jail time.
  • #780
  • May 31, 2024 2:43am May 31, 2024 2:43am
Thank you Judge Merchan and the jury for the service. Despite threats and opposition, they stood strong and enabled a fair trial. Well done.

Outcome exactly as predicted 6 years ago. Another nail in the coffin.

Trump is a convicted felon found quilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in the hush money case.
He is a proven failed business man in many bankruptcy cases, a convicted sexual abuser and now a convicted felon falsifying business records to manipulate a presidential election, with a lot more serious crimes already indicted and soon to be convicted over the next 12 - 18 months. A total faillure.

Only a prison sentence is appropriate: Lock him up. Micheal Cohen got 3 years. He did it on direct orders of Trump as proven far beyond reasonable doubt with water tight evidence. Trump should therefore get at least 5-6 years, with at least 3 years actually served in prison. He should lose his pension and security detail as an ex president. Everything else would be just political and put him above the law once more. Don't get lazy.... Trump is only done if he rotts in jail for the rest of his life. If America fails to follow through till the end like Germany failed on Hitler, the outcome will be devastating.
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