Fundamental/Quantitative analysis

Nice and useful thread and thank you for!

...maybe he will cut interest rates...but he will increase them...we'll see...there are presidential elections...it's a normal move...
everyone expects to cut them... and they play the game... yes sir... we will cut them... but it is an election year... he will raise the interest rates... we will see... anyway, all the economies of important countries are doing very well ..everywhere...and even the smallest one...

God bless you KnifeS2!

Forex

Currency markets are in a deep freeze. Rate cuts and Trump could thaw them

https://www.reuters.com/markets/curr...em-2024-04-04/

GBP

UK businesses wage growth expectations fall to 4.9% on three-month moving average in March, the lowest reading since June 2022.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/wag...October%202021.

God bless you too LvMMT

Have a great trading month.
KnifeS2

USD JPY

Japan's Former Top Currency Diplomat Yamazaki: Japan will likely intervene in the FX market if the Yen falls well below 152 per dollar.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/curr...at-2024-04-04/

USD CAD

CAD to strengthen 0.9% to 1.34/USD in three months, matching the March forecast.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...inds-46361905/

EUR

Italy Q4 year-to-date budget deficit at 7.2% of GDP.

https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-budget

USD No Farm Payrolls Bank Comments

Wells Fargo
We estimate payroll growth moderated in March but remained healthy with employers adding 220K jobs. While demand for new workers has eased, the low JOLTS layoff rate and level of initial jobless claims indicate businesses continue to hold onto existing workers, thus supporting net hiring. The household measure of employment has painted a bleaker picture of hiring recently, having declined by an average of 300K over the past three months. Yet the household measure’s volatility and tendency to oscillate around the trend in payrolls leads us to anticipate a rebound in March that should push the unemployment rate back down to 3.8%. Average hourly earnings likely expanded 0.3% in March, bringing the 12-month change to nearly a three-year low of 4.1% in another sign the jobs market is gradually cooling.
As we move through the year, we expect to see payroll growth downshift further amid dwindling scope for catch-up hiring and slower growth in the labor supply. However, with payroll growth still flying north of 200K, there is altitude to lose before the Fed is faced with a more menacing trade-off between the employment and price stability sides of its mandate.

ING
The jobs report will be the main focus in the US next week. Payrolls are expected to rise by just under 200k, but once again are likely to be concentrated in just three sectors – local government, leisure and hospitality, and private education and healthcare services. 80% of all the jobs added over the past 14 months have come from these sectors and we don’t see much change given that employment surveys have pointed to a slowdown in hiring. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.9% with wage growth remaining benign. We suspect this will keep market pricing for a June federal reserve interest cut at around 80%. Expectations will be firmed up ahead of time with ADP payrolls and the ISM surveys released before next Friday’s jobs figures.

BlackRock
We keep a close eye on the U.S. payroll report out this week to gauge if job gains can keep growing sharply due to elevated migration. Longer term, we think the U.S. could face the risk of structurally slower labor force growth – a key production constraint – as its population ages and without a further boost from migration.

Barclays
In the US, the few data releases published so far this week have done little to change the picture of fairly resilient growth. We expect February personal income estimates to reaffirm these benign dynamics, showing a solid 0.5% m/m increase in income and 0.1% m/m increase in real PCE. On the inflation front, core PCE is likely to post another firm print, rising 0.32% m/m, but this has already been well telegraphed by the CPI and PPI releases. Indeed, the FOMC had this translation to hand at last week’s meeting, and Chair Powell’s communication suggested that the committee regarded stronger inflation pressures at the beginning of the year as more of a bump in the road, from which it did not infer any additional momentum in the coming months.

USD

Effective Fed Funds Rate 5.33% April 4 vs 5.33% April 3.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/effec...ral_funds_rate

USD

Fed's Logan: We can't wait until inflation reaches 2% to cut rates.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed...ation-dcf95f67

Bowman said that he will be comfortable with only one interest rate hike in Q4...that is in December...it's a long way until then...that's why I say he can raise interest rates...not cut them...

nobody knows how inflation, unemployment or economic growth... evolve...etc...

after the indices corrected strongly....services decrease...and the prices of services also decrease...this led to the idea that: THERE IS NO MORE INFLATION.....and the FED could cut interest rates again...

tks Federico!

God bless everyone!

Global Conflicts

US Official: US Actively Preparing for Possible Significant Attack by Iran in Response to Israeli Strike in Damascus.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/05/p...ike/index.html

Global Conflicts

US Centcom reports: US forces shoot down UAV over the Red Sea.

https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-...ed-sea-update/

USD

Uncertainty over rate cuts wobbles US government bond market.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rate...et-2024-04-04/

EUR

EU's Foreign Min. Borrell: Europe must prepare for potential war, with a full-scale conflict on the continent no longer a fantasy.

https://www.ft.com/content/0c0482f3-...9-7f82c4ad4c17

Comment: time to move away 🫨

but where? It could be nicer on this planet if there weren't these senseless wars.

More important question is why is Europe allowing the US to drag it into the US proxy war with Russia?

thats not my opinion.

It isn't an opinion, it is a question based on the evidence we have when you look at what has happened between the US and Russia since the end of WW2, the events leading up to the Maidan conflict with the resolution negotiated by Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia as well as what has happened since then.

The US is working hard to deflect visibility away from its GDP to debt ratio of over 124% and start a war with China or Russia. They now are stirring up things with Iran again!

Outside of Europe and North America the BRIC nations are getting on with their daily lives, replacing SWIFT and circumventing US domination.

It was interesting to see that Germany is actually a member of the Russian SPFS!

I hate to disturb @knife's neutral space with excellent informations.
The two of us have often met on political issues.
There is no potential for a discussion between us in this area. Because I don't see any possibility of approchement.