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Observable Realities about the Market

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Mar 27, 2024 9:43am Mar 26, 2024 10:48am | Edited Mar 27, 2024 9:43am
The purpose of this thread is to collect observable realities on the market from a rational point of view, try to sweep away some old false habits, and listen to other people's ideas to create a basis for understanding how to navigate the markets in the most rational way possible.

 

  1. Are there observable realities you can put down about the market?
  2. Are the ones I indicated weak or can they be attacked?
  3. Can you explain your realities logically?


Starting from the basics, these are my current beliefs:

1. The market is chaotic, therefore not predictable. There are windows in which the price is predictable, but this happens for a short period of time and then the movement becomes chaotic again.

2. The market has been, is and will always be manipulated. We have documentary evidence of institutions that collaborated to move the price in their favor, and although today it is more difficult, this still happens.

3. The price moves only and exclusively due to a difference between supply and demand. The presence or absence of a pushing force is all that is needed to make the price move. Studying the past won't tell you anything about the future.

4. There is no edge in the market, and anyone's edge is small. When an edge is identified it becomes more and more evident and exploited by an increasing number of investors, until as the number of investors exploiting this edge increases, the edge itself is no longer valid.

5. Direct consequence of point 4, there is no purely mechanical approach to the market that can work in the long term, nor an indicator, nor anything else. Adaptability is the only possible path.

6. Moving averages, indicators, fibonacci, supports and resistances are tools observed by a large number of traders, and they work occasionally only because these groups of traders take them into consideration and make decisions based on them. However, even the broken clock marks the exact time 2 times a day. None of these tools can indicate the future direction of the price.

7. The entry point into the market, an obsession of 99% of traders, is LESS relevant than the exit point. Paradoxically, we could enter at any point in the market, if we knew where to exit or how to set SL and TP.

8. The "favorable" Risk Reward is a lie for novices. If you don't understand how a 1:3 or 3:1 RR is exactly the same thing, you're in the wrong place. (take it or leave it, the only difference is the ability to deal with a negative series of losses, and once again the traditional theory of a narrower SL and a wider TP is bullsh*t).

9. As repetita iuvant, what seems to work today does not work tomorrow, this is because on a general level the market moves when one of the two sides has less resistance, or on one of the two sides there is greater force, NOT following a logical pattern.

10. The data provided to us with the candles is distorted or unreliable. Each broker has different candles and each candle contains a time interval within which we do not know exactly what happened. (we can obviously lower the time frame, but this does not solve the problem, the candles are a snapshot of a time frame, and are subject to variability, they are NOT truth).

This is enough as a start, this list will be updated as necessary. Any observation/objection is very welcome, as long as it can be explained logically.
Cheers

  • #2
  • Mar 26, 2024 11:37am Mar 26, 2024 11:37am
I agree with most of your points about market behavior as being random, chaotic, manipulated or whatever, but that is a reality out of our control.
It makes sense in my humble opinion to take care of things we can control such as our edge, whatever you judge as a higher probability of one thing happening over another, and our risk control(how much you risk per trade), making sure that even after a string of losses your account survives to fight another day.
Keep alive a genuine winning attitude
  • #3
  • Mar 26, 2024 12:28pm Mar 26, 2024 12:28pm
Quoting Thehumble
I agree with most of your points about market behavior as being random, chaotic, manipulated or whatever, but that is a reality out of our control. It makes sense in my humble opinion to take care of things we can control such as our edge, whatever you judge as a higher probability of one thing happening over another, and our risk control(how much you risk per trade), making sure that even after a string of losses your account survives to fight another day.
You made an excellent point, and indeed one of my next highlights. If you accept the points listed above then this game is out of your control, and this will give you the feeling of helplessness and inability. How do you approach the market in a rational way if you accept it can be manipulated, the data shown is fragmentary, the tools available are unreliable, and a mechanical/edge method will only work for a short time?
  • #4
  • Mar 26, 2024 12:48pm Mar 26, 2024 12:48pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} You are wrong on nearly every point, except that the Forex market is manipulated/managed/controlled. If it is being manipulated, controlled, and managed (within the confines of structure), how can it be chaotic? Do you believe the manipulation is to ensure a chaotic market (of course, it is not). It is being manipulated for a reason, and the manipulation, and control, is observable and tradable. I would also suggest that supply and demand is the wrong economic idea to use when describing the PS of the Forex, since the demand and supply decisions...
As I said at the beginning of this thread, any idea is welcome if it can be explained even just rationally, so I willingly listen to your point of view and am ready to change my mind. But first let me explain, bacause I think we don't agree on what market manipulation means.

To me market manipulation is more like a stop hunt by an institution quickly pushing the price past a resistance level, only to quickly close its positions and be able to take the other side more decisively. After this there will be windows of orderly movement, more or less long, and chaos again.

If you really think that a cross like EUR/USD can be manipulated for long periods of time, in the middle of the European/American session, then we are on two different paths. But please go ahead and explain your reasons.
  • #5
  • Mar 26, 2024 10:32pm Mar 26, 2024 10:32pm
i woz gonna write somethin here but i have to resist as !!old member is in de house!! a teachable moment here people. listen closely --- de markets are manipulated BUT not in a !!bad way!! so there must b a good type and bad type of manipulation right. but theres no random ideas of movement or negative manipulation but then that would imply theres no !!bad!! interpretation or view ........ just plain wrong perspective. right ge? the obvious conclusion therefore here, from you, would be this ... uve never been in the guts of any market. u probs just love to read lots. a calculator still needs an operator.
protein for breakfast !
  • #6
  • Mar 26, 2024 11:54pm Mar 26, 2024 11:54pm
Quoting Fiox89
{quote} As I said at the beginning of this thread, any idea is welcome if it can be explained even just rationally, so I willingly listen to your point of view and am ready to change my mind. But first let me explain, bacause I think we don't agree on what market manipulation means. To me market manipulation is more like a stop hunt by an institution quickly pushing the price past a resistance level, only to quickly close its positions and be able to take the other side more decisively. After this there will be windows of orderly movement, more...
Sorry Fiox89, but I deleted the post that you commented on, as well as my follow-up post. A guy named PeterCaleb, who was previously suspended by FF, and who now posts as oochiwaawaa, posted a comment that was aimed at me. Peter is upset with me, since I was the individual that got him suspended. Peter is a liar and an idiot, who has no working knowledge of the forex or financial markets. If I were to respond to him, your thread would become a pretty shitty battle zone, and I don't want to be responsible for that. Peter is like a festering, oozing venereal disease who descends on unsuspecting threads, leaving scars and stains that are hard to live with.

In his post above, he wants everyone to believe that he is capable of delivering a teachable moment. He is not. He assumed that by manipulation, I was making a value judgement -- that manipulation was bad, or that there are good and bad types of manipulation in the forex. I was not making that point, because it is a stupid thing to bring up in this discussion. He then suggests that there are no "random ideas of movement", a phrase which is a non sequitur and has no objective meaning. Peter has no idea what that means, nor can he explain what the guts of the market means, nor does he understand that a calculator does not need an operator, but instead, an operator need a calculator (one is a person, the other a lifeless tool).

I will let you deal with Peter from this point on. But please understand that if you let him loose in your thread, you will regret it. Just ask Moodybot, and all the other people who put Peter on their ignore list. Good luck.
  • #7
  • Mar 27, 2024 2:39am Mar 27, 2024 2:39am
Quoting Fiox89
The purpose of this thread is to collect observable realities on the market from a rational point of view, sweep away some old false habits, and listen to other people's ideas to create a basis for understanding how to navigate the markets in the most rational way possible. Starting from the basics, these are my current beliefs: 1. The market is chaotic, therefore not predictable. There are windows in which the price is predictable, but this happens for a short period of time and then the movement becomes chaotic again. 2. The market has been, is...
so basically if one is consistently profitable for a long period of time they are a unicorn ? I agree with majority of what you said but for an edge to be identified I think you have to a hugggge amount of capital, i’m talking about 7-8 figures
SKQT - Super Kool Quant Trader
Daily Remy All Time Return: 5.6%
  • #8
  • Mar 27, 2024 3:05am Mar 27, 2024 3:05am
Quoting Erpthetrader
{quote} so basically if one is consistently profitable for a long period of time they are a unicorn ? I agree with majority of what you said but for an edge to be identified I think you have to a hugggge amount of capital, i’m talking about 7-8 figures
Considering the win/loser statistics, and adding to the equation how many of the winners are still winners after 3 years, I'd say it's pretty reasonable to consider a long-term (>3 years) profitable trader a unicorn.

About your concept of edge, would you like to add why do you think a certain amount of capital is needed to identify an edge? if you're talking about investing in research on behalf of some institution, then it makes sense
  • #9
  • Mar 27, 2024 3:42am Mar 27, 2024 3:42am
Quoting Fiox89
{quote} Considering the win/loser statistics, and adding to the equation how many of the winners are still winners after 3 years, I'd say it's pretty reasonable to consider a long-term (>3 years) profitable trader a unicorn. About your concept of edge, would you like to add why do you think a certain amount of capital is needed to identify an edge? if you're talking about investing in research on behalf of some institution, then it makes sense
I reread everything and your right a certain amount of Capital is not needed to identify an edge , you can just be unlucky Do you think it’s pointless to try to pursuit unicorn status (>3 years profitable) ?
SKQT - Super Kool Quant Trader
Daily Remy All Time Return: 5.6%
  • #10
  • Mar 27, 2024 4:57am Mar 27, 2024 4:57am
Quoting Fiox89
The purpose of this thread is to collect observable realities on the market from a rational point of view, sweep away some old false habits, and listen to other people's ideas to create a basis for understanding how to navigate the markets in the most rational way possible. Starting from the basics, these are my current beliefs: 1. The market is chaotic, therefore not predictable. There are windows in which the price is predictable, but this happens for a short period of time and then the movement becomes chaotic again. 2. The market has been, is...
whstever statement you have given above can be explained logically, obviously most of them do work, manageable in long run.
  • #11
  • Mar 27, 2024 9:14am Mar 27, 2024 9:14am
Quoting Fiox89
The purpose of this thread is to collect observable realities on the market from a rational point of view, sweep away some old false habits, and listen to other people's ideas to create a basis for understanding how to navigate the markets in the most rational way possible. Starting from the basics, these are my current beliefs: 1. The market is chaotic, therefore not predictable. There are windows in which the price is predictable, but this happens for a short period of time and then the movement becomes chaotic again. 2. The market has been, is...
Given what you have posted above i would like to ask you the following questions.
What business do you have in trying to trade these markets then? Why are you here?
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #12
  • Mar 27, 2024 9:40am Mar 27, 2024 9:40am
Quoting Cobra
{quote} Given what you have posted above i would like to ask you the following questions. What business do you have in trying to trade these markets then? Why are you here?
There are individuals who observe the harsh reality, and remain petrified. There are other individuals who observe the same reality, and plan their moves to the best of their abilities. I am in this business because I understand the very low chances of success, but equally the high potential, and I navigate in an attempt to meet like-minded people to share useful food for thought, far from the usual senseless strategies.

I take this opportunity to remind everyone that this thread is not meant to ask me questions about my beliefs, I have no interest in convincing anyone, if what you believe works for you, congratulations.

The purpose of this thread is to analyze and study rational elements with which to approach the markets, listen to new ideas, put my own ideas under stress by feeding them to other minds, and ultimately try to create logical foundations to deal with the markets in a reasonable way.

 

  1. Are there any other observable realities you can put down about the market?
  2. Are the ones I indicated weak or can they be attacked?
  3. Can you explain your realities logically?

  • #13
  • Edited 10:32am Mar 27, 2024 10:13am | Edited 10:32am
Quoting Fiox89
{quote} There are individuals who observe the harsh reality, and remain petrified. There are other individuals who observe the same reality, and plan their moves to the best of their abilities. I am in this business because I understand the very low chances of success, but equally the high potential, and I navigate in an attempt to meet like-minded people to share useful food for thought, far from the usual senseless strategies. I take this opportunity to remind everyone that this thread is not meant to ask me questions about my beliefs, I have...
The 10 points you noted here are a reflection and perception of how you have experienced these markets so far. Not uncommon. But hugely negative in my opinion.

There are numerous opportunities and edges in this market. Will you find them in educational material or here on the FF? Maybe...
Trading is like most other difficult things in life. You have to put in the time.
You will never become a professional Golf player by attending lessons, reading books, watching others play the game etc.
You have to hit your own balls. Pick up your own balls and carry your equipment when others are drinking beer. Rinse and repeat even when it doesn't make sense anymore.
THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR WATCHING AND STARING AT YOUR CHARTS! (One cannot shorten the learning curve unless you have a mentor, and you are prepared to stick with him)

Some of your points are valid but not absolute.
Here is how i became successful:

  1. Screentime, staring and watching until you see what you are looking for...
  2. Custom indictors. Modified so that i could plot e.g. a 4-hour b Band on a 30 min chart. (Multiple indicators, multiple timeframes overlayed on one timeframe)
  3. The market always returns the mean. (Not a MVA, but Custom indicator)
  4. Price U Turns back to the median line in almost the same fashion and same pattern all the time. Apply MM and be prepared to enter more than once.
  5. I take profit quick (no scalping and i do not get married to a trade)
  6. I sell into strength and buy into weakness based on the above.

This is not the only way to trade......
Good luck.

Never Ever Give Up!
  • #14
  • Mar 27, 2024 10:22am Mar 27, 2024 10:22am
Blue = 1 Min
Red = 5 min
Yellow =15 Min
Magenta = 30 min
White = 1 Hour
Purple = 4 Hour
Can you see how the market stretches out and returns ...?
(Chart with median lines and price removed)
I use this with several other custom indicators to fine tune my edge. If you can see the possibilities, well done. If not, then this is not for you.
I cannot share my indicators but have made my contribution.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 15 KB
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #15
  • Mar 27, 2024 12:40pm Mar 27, 2024 12:40pm
Quoting Cobra
Blue = 1 Min Red = 5 min Yellow =15 Min Magenta = 30 min White = 1 Hour Purple = 4 Hour Can you see how the market stretches out and returns ...? (Chart with median lines and price removed) I use this with several other custom indicators to fine tune my edge. If you can see the possibilities, well done. If not, then this is not for you. I cannot share my indicators but have made my contribution. {image}
Thanks for sharing your reality about the market, it is certainly interesting and I agree with you on some points, however the question is: can you explain these beliefs of yours in a rational way? because otherwise, we are just talking about another trading system like there are hundreds of them.
  • #16
  • Mar 27, 2024 1:21pm Mar 27, 2024 1:21pm
Quoting Fiox89
{quote} Thanks for sharing your reality about the market, it is certainly interesting and I agree with you on some points, however the question is: can you explain these beliefs of yours in a rational way? because otherwise, we are just talking about another trading system like there are hundreds of them.
Dear Trader
The core of my system is laid out in my previous post. It is right there on the chart i have posted.
It is not a secret method. Nor is there only one way trading it.

To explain it would require of me to add my other indicators. Hours of research and money went into it. I am not prepared to give it away.
The good news is that you can built on it. The concept is simple. There are threads on this forum discussing the same.
Just take what i have given you and add some meat onto it with your own research and indicators.

Trading becomes easier the more you keep at it. Many give up just before they make a breakthrough.
As you can see i am a long-standing member here and have not wasted my years posting but rather researching.
All you have to do is to "never give up". SPEND MORE TIME ON YOUR CHARTS THAN READING OTHER TRADERS' GARBAGE.
Maybe somewhere in the future i will post a trade explorer to show how my persistence rewarded me.
My message here is to shake off the negativity and focus on a positive outcome.
Gerhard.
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #17
  • Mar 27, 2024 2:34pm Mar 27, 2024 2:34pm
If you want my advice, what GEFx has posted is also the truth that I have found. and you can exploit the manipulation when it happens.

Markets look chaotic and that's for a reason.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #18
  • Mar 27, 2024 7:21pm Mar 27, 2024 7:21pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Sorry Fiox89, but I deleted the post that you commented on, as well as my follow-up post. A guy named PeterCaleb, who was previously suspended by FF, and who now posts as oochiwaawaa, posted a comment that was aimed at me. Peter is upset with me, since I was the individual that got him suspended. Peter is a liar and an idiot, who has no working knowledge of the forex or financial markets. If I were to respond to him, your thread would become a pretty shitty battle zone, and I don't want to be responsible for that. Peter is like a festering,...
no i only try follow ur way 2 see it in ur own words. then give it bak. talkin bout a person u dont know cant understand and cant keep up with .. wot else can u do but try discredit. online or not, u have problems. ur unimaginative in ur retorts and attempts 2 misdirect persons. person with brain can see why. u got nothin.
protein for breakfast !
  • #19
  • Mar 27, 2024 7:26pm Mar 27, 2024 7:26pm
Quoting Shabs19
If you want my advice, what GEFx has posted is also the truth that I have found. and you can exploit the manipulation when it happens. Markets look chaotic and that's for a reason.
then ur advice is as limited as theirs. shortsighted in the realest sense. try getting of this website and look around. it not the truth it HIGHLY subjective and intellectually persuasive/coercive. it funny to watch wen person not dumbshit who cant be pushed round by others. easy observations to be made allround. NEEEEEXT.
protein for breakfast !
  • #20
  • Mar 27, 2024 9:06pm Mar 27, 2024 9:06pm
Quoting Fiox89
Cheers
I fully agree with all statements.
The biggest takeaway is that trade entry/entry criteria does not matter at all.. as there is no way to predict a trend, no way to predict a top or bottom. I started running trading simulations about a year ago.. had to waste years to discover this.

I've worked with Darkstar on FX market microstructure. There are certain instances where there's an imbalance or a need to trade by a party, but like you said, they're quick and the inefficiency is gone very fast. If you're not watching the 1M chart, you'll miss it. Then there's large FX Options but we don't know if the option writers are hedged yet, or even need to.
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