would you put your money in this EA? | Forex Factory

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would you put your money in this EA?

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 22, 2024 4:46am Mar 22, 2024 4:46am
would you invest your money in this EA? based on this graph and numbers only

yes or no, why not?

is it possible to do curve fitting on such high number of trades?

Info of backtesting
Symbol, EUR/USD
TimeFrame: 30min
Period: April-2023 to Mar-2024

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  • #2
  • Mar 22, 2024 4:55am Mar 22, 2024 4:55am
This kind of results won't survive a live feed or the brokers behaviour.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #3
  • Mar 22, 2024 5:00am Mar 22, 2024 5:00am
Quoting mabooz
would you invest your money in this EA? based on this graph and numbers only yes or no, why not? is it possible to do curve fitting on such high number of trades? Info of backtesting Symbol, EUR/USD TimeFrame: 30min Period: April-2023 to Mar-2024 {image} {image}
No , because total profit is not worth the time. This ea should have forward tests.
Insta
  • #4
  • Mar 22, 2024 5:13am Mar 22, 2024 5:13am
Quoting FerruFx
This kind of results won't survive a live feed or the brokers behaviour.
Interesting... @mabooz. Always great to See a new aspirant. At the onset, the Average Wing and loss seems close to Spread values, even on a micro lot or nominal placement. would like if you could share the name of general idea behind your system.

Even amongst the most reputable or regulated brokers the(ir) liquidity providers cover their meal with spread.. Often widening at the time most convenient to them. So if the approach or system is heavily spread dependent as in tick scalping. I must concur with @FerruFx.. More work needed. So, knowing what is being attempted opens to door for others to share their experiences.

Keep fighting: one day a win, will emerge. Just keep getting up... remain in the Game of Love or War.
  • #5
  • Mar 22, 2024 5:35am Mar 22, 2024 5:35am
Quoting FerruFx
This kind of results won't survive a live feed or the brokers behaviour.
note that the test is done using Tick Data suite with variable spread. the reason that is the profit values very close to spread is because I decided to instruct the system to take profit, otherwise the upside profit would be much much higher.

I wont disclose why I made such choice,

I still do not understand your view as to why it wont survive? I am running it on live account with SWAP free account, no fees but spred. and it performs as backtesting so far.

so please provide further detials as why you think it wont survive?
  • #6
  • Mar 22, 2024 5:38am Mar 22, 2024 5:38am
Quoting pathumracled
{quote} Interesting... @mabooz. Always great to See a new aspirant. At the onset, the Average Wing and loss seems close to Spread values, even on a micro lot or nominal placement. would like if you could share the name of general idea behind your system. Even amongst the most reputable or regulated brokers the(ir) liquidity providers cover their meal with spread.. Often widening at the time most convenient to them. So if the approach or system is heavily spread dependent as in tick scalping. I must concur with @FerruFx.. More work needed. So, knowing...

thank you for your reply, the system is not spread dependant, average brokers spreads will do just fine.... the system is very very simple, let me just say its based on moving averages
  • #7
  • Mar 22, 2024 5:51am Mar 22, 2024 5:51am
MAz as in moving average cross(es); Is it Break Out? Trend Following Value area reversal etc.? If you Describe it in a sentence or an apt name that will Suffice. Or if you are satisfied as is just slap it onto you favourite demo account, perhaps with a VPS and watch it do its thing. That will give a stronger Litmus test.

Say your System was a triple EMA Cross EMA(5, 20, 50) Buying when Both 5 and 20 are above 50 in the order 50, 20, 5. That helps to understand. Just a Hint... Giving and receiving are reciprocal for a reason. I am humbled by the knowledge that I still will not know enough. In the interim others can help me lower the curve
  • #8
  • Mar 22, 2024 3:00pm Mar 22, 2024 3:00pm
It is a very simple moving average crosses, but thats not the reason it produces such a nice graph. I found out that the most important factor is how you manage orders and how you exit orders. thats about 90% of importance.

so say if my MAs are 10,50 cross, then I change to 50, 70 cross, it wont matter much if my orders handling is the same.
  • #9
  • Mar 22, 2024 5:26pm Mar 22, 2024 5:26pm
Its “maximal drawdown” is great (4.16%) and the EA is “profitable”, so those are its obvious positives. But I’d probably still work on it to improve it before using real money. I think it’s making way too many trades for such small average profit, and more importantly, how does it behave in different market conditions? Is it robust? I’ll backtest other periods outside 2023-2024 to see if it can survive.
  • #10
  • Mar 23, 2024 6:48am Mar 23, 2024 6:48am
Quoting Zennie
Its “maximal drawdown” is great (4.16%) and the EA is “profitable”, so those are its obvious positives. But I’d probably still work on it to improve it before using real money. I think it’s making way too many trades for such small average profit, and more importantly, how does it behave in different market conditions? Is it robust? I’ll backtest other periods outside 2023-2024 to see if it can survive.
Thanks for the visit, but as I explained before, the only reason its taking small profit is because I told it to take small profit. let me show you 4 graphs, instructing the EA to handle profits in different ways. (without changing the underline MAs settings) - same strategy, different order handling

Same lot sizes scaling, same period all other settings same excep order handling..... you see the risk is that equity drawdown will go a bit higher,
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  • #11
  • Mar 23, 2024 6:51am Mar 23, 2024 6:51am
Sp the up side is there, but why would you want more upside? while that will reduce the profitable number of trades down.

instead, what we can is tell the EA take profits fast even if its small, and this way we can just increase the low size and maintain same winning trades %
  • #12
  • Last Post: Oct 2, 2024 3:33am Oct 2, 2024 3:33am
Based on the provided chart and data, I would not consider investing in this EA. At first glance, it appears to be a system optimized for a specific market environment under particular conditions, which raises concerns. The risk of overfitting is substantially increased not only by the limited number of trades but also by the high number of variables involved. From my experience, during past research, I was able to intentionally overfit a strategy over a 10-year period, which highlights how easily this can happen. I hope this insight proves helpful to you.
Nature cannot be cheated - Richard Feynman
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