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Forex intraday using the 5min chart: EURUSD 108 replies

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5Min Intraday System

  • #1,581
  • Jun 26, 2007 4:59am Jun 26, 2007 4:59am
Hi Eyevoltage

I posted without reading yours and Golfer's posts. I guess Ignorance is Bliss?

Yeah, the ADX gives some snippets of good information on the trend. Been watching it for a while. EUYJPY now pulls back to 165.35, almost into the war zone, with ADX still showing strength in the trend...at this moment anyway.

Regards
  • #1,582
  • Jun 26, 2007 6:31am Jun 26, 2007 6:31am
1127 GMT. Outcome of the trade was a breakeven stop on the 2nd 1/2 position. Goes with the game in this market. Notice the ADX already gave advance warning of weakness in the trend when it dips below 25.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20070626 EURJPY 1127 GMT.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #1,583
  • Jun 26, 2007 10:19am Jun 26, 2007 10:19am
The EURJPY set-up today. Little bit tricky but I saw this set-up previously on this pair. The setup is:

First the area of support (A), then it changed to resistance (B) on the pull-back. As you will recall, I decided to ignore the set-up. Then I draw the green rectangle and saw the resistance. I also saw Cable's 3 little sister's being formed on U$JPY (I'll post it later). That is why I took the trade (and left for a meeting).

I did take profit at the two "X"s. (0.35lot for 34pips & 0.4lot for 41pips = plus minus 37pips)

This is another familiar set-up that one can consider - the green rectangle (first support, then resistance or the other way around)

Emarco - great trade but why didn' you follow the market with your SL on your second half lot? If market is running like that, don't leave your SL on BE. I usually follow the market with a 10pip SL (InterbankFX trailing SL of 15pips to far away). I've changed it later to a tighter 5pips and then it got hit. Missed out on about 16pips but just remember, you won't get the maximum pips.

Just look at the differences between the two pullback patterns C (18 degree & D (53 degree).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy 20070626 1.jpg Size: 83 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,584
  • Jun 26, 2007 10:33am Jun 26, 2007 10:33am
You won't see a better formation of the 3 little sisters than this. I don't really follow this pair - the reason I saw it too late. According to Phillip - very powerful on Cable. But just look at it on this pair as well.

What a beauty! Hope some of you got some pips from it. Sister 3 was a sitter within all the rules.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: u$jpy 20070626 3 sisters.jpg Size: 76 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,585
  • Jun 26, 2007 9:31pm Jun 26, 2007 9:31pm
  •  bonzdoc
  • | Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Mountain Man & Beach Bum All In One | 41 Posts
Quoting petrol
Maybe you login to the computer with a name and a password ... like 'bozdoc' and password. Try loging in as Administrator.
Petrol,

Thank you for your advice everything is working great now!
"If your mind can see it and believe it you can achieve it."
  • #1,586
  • Jun 26, 2007 11:08pm Jun 26, 2007 11:08pm
Hello,

I just have a few questions:

Has any been profitable from this 5Min system? Any estimates on number of pips per gained per week?

Is philip still using this system?

How about using the 4hr MACD signals (namely the TC signal) to determine entry points when 50SMA is 20 degree?
  • #1,587
  • Jun 27, 2007 9:27am Jun 27, 2007 9:27am
Quoting xwisdom
Hello,

Has any been profitable from this 5Min system? Any estimates on number of pips per gained per week?

Is philip still using this system?

How about using the 4hr MACD signals (namely the TC signal) to determine entry points when 50SMA is 20 degree?
.. As the title says I am new here, too. BUT I have 1 year of virtual trading and I KNOW the market is a living creature and it is not a hen laying golden egs.

This forum and Philips' threads in particular are a great source of exemples, questions and answers, all these coming to give you a direction what you should STUDY.

Yes the method is profitable but you should read the thread as much as you can. See page 103 for a quite new review of the method. You can't just take the rules trying to apply them at "the right moment" and just like that the pips are in your bag. You have to feel the market .. to kow it like you know a friend.

YOU REALLY HAVE TO STUDY BECAUSE AS EASY IT CAN BE TO PICK SOME PIPS IT IS THE SAME CHANCE TO LOOSE BIG MONEY WITHOUT KNOLEDGE.

I wish you all the best and ... you are wellcome here and may ask any question you have.
  • #1,588
  • Edited 12:12pm Jun 27, 2007 11:29am | Edited 12:12pm
Hope some of you got pips from this pair on setup 1 and 2.

Setup 1 was a go but I was looking at setup 2. Just too late in the run - almost 100pips. High risk trade but it did work out. But will it do tomorrow? I didn't have the guts to enter with a live account.

Setup 3 & 4 was a definite no-no.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy 20070627 setups.jpg Size: 82 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,589
  • Edited 12:13pm Jun 27, 2007 11:35am | Edited 12:13pm
Then the setup I had my finger on the trigger - initially a great set-up. Untill I saw the big blue candle upwards and my small resistance line was broken. Not within my comfort zone - sorry. Like I told Phillip - I've learned my lession in April and I won't go that road again.

Good for you who got the pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euru$ 20070627 setup.jpg Size: 71 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,590
  • Jun 27, 2007 1:15pm Jun 27, 2007 1:15pm
Quoting Golfer
Then the setup I had my finger on the trigger - initially a great set-up. Untill I saw the big blue candle upwards and my small resistance line was broken. Not within my comfort zone - sorry. Like I told Phillip - I've learned my lession in April and I won't go that road again.

Good for you who got the pips.

Now that's what I call discipline, Golfer. You are to be commended, because I can't say with hand on heart that I would have done the same thing. I wasn't on the charts this morning, but looking at your example, I think I would have taken it. I wish I could say different, but I can't. What happened in April, by the way? Was it an earlier part of the thread and if so, what page?
Well done again, mate.
Cheers
  • #1,591
  • Edited 2:24pm Jun 27, 2007 2:00pm | Edited 2:24pm
I just want to post my answer to Daniel (on Skype chat) regarding the entry on U$jpy this morning at 07H00:

OK, I tend to look at the previous candles and previous pullbacks to 10MA and 21MA - that will give you an indication what the pullback will do.

I know one trader looks at the ADX - if the ratio between the two line is about 3:1 he expects a pullback and bounch off the 10MA

That is why I don't like to enter on the first pullback into the zone after the cross of the 50MA. First pullback after 50MA cross give you an indication on the speed - remember our discussion yesterday about the speed. Yes, sometimes it is very difficult and I am still learning.

That is why I do like the 2-candle entry rule but it is not always possible. I know Phillip would like to see some sort of resistance found on 21MA. That is when you know the possibility of positive trade is on the chart.

Phillip is looking for a smooth round top/bottom formed by 2-3 candles on the 21MA. That is why a steep pullback looks like a spike (that will penetrate the 21MA) and not a smooth rounding (not change to penetrate the 21MA)
[08:39:35 PM]

Sorry, no clear answer. That is forex for you - if it was that simple, everybody would have been in this business

Additional:

I like to see a candle close very close to the 21MA and then the second candle can move towards the 21MA and then bounches off it. More adequately is when the 3rd or 4th candle starts to pullback after forming a nice smooth round top/bottom.

If I do miss the trade because it didn't bounch off the 21MA - too bad. Wait for the next setup.

But please evaluate each setup individually - not all are the same. Practise on a demo account on all pullbacks (not only the proper setups) to get a feeling for it. That is what I am doing now.

This is just how I am doing it - develop your own style that matches your personality.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: u$jpy 20070627 setup.jpg Size: 79 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,592
  • Jun 27, 2007 2:07pm Jun 27, 2007 2:07pm
Quoting eyevoltage
Now that's what I call discipline, Golfer. You are to be commended, because I can't say with hand on heart that I would have done the same thing. I wasn't on the charts this morning, but looking at your example, I think I would have taken it. I wish I could say different, but I can't. What happened in April, by the way? Was it an earlier part of the thread and if so, what page?
Well done again, mate.
Cheers
Hi EYE

In Apr (after a succesfull first month on demo with 70% pos rate) I went live and unfortunately I've tried to trade every setup I could catch. Without looking at the bigger picture. Disaster - positive trade went down to 45% and loss $40 on mini account. The April black hole. I was so confident!

Back to the drawing board for My Rules development, price movement study and demo trading. Hopefully I am a high probability trader now and I'll give it a try this month again.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,593
  • Edited 2:50pm Jun 27, 2007 2:38pm | Edited 2:50pm
I spoke to Philip about posting this info about the Donchian channels, I got a lot of requests for the info, so here it goes:

First I want to say that I am not going to abuse the opportunity and that I am not going to go into discussions etc on this thread about the indicators. If you like the indicator, then use it.

I will attach the Donchian channel indicator plus my template that I use, feel free to change anything on it that you want.

I will tell you how I use it but as indicated before am not going into the merits etc of the system.

The template will load 3 Donchian channels onto your charts, plus the Dynamic Zone RSI plus 2 moving averages plus timelines if you have the indicators. SAve all the indicators in your Experts/Indicators file and the template in your Template file.

The Donchian channels are set as follows:
First channel to 60 periods - white channels
Second channel to 20 periods - magenta channels
Third channel to 10 periods - yellow channels

Under input the ADVANCE is set to 2 on all channels, that mean that the channels are moved forward by to candles. THis have the effect that candles can break through the lines, of the advance is set to 0 then the candles will be contained by the channels. Since this is a breakout system it is easier to see the candles break a line and therefore I have made the adjustment for visual effect.

If you want to trade only short time frames you can delete the 60 period channel.
If you want to trade only longer time frames you can delete to 10 period channel

For short time frame trading enter when price break to Don 20 (Magenta) and exit if it retrace back over the Don 10 (yellow) channels
For longer term enter when Don 60 (white) channel is broken and exit when retrace back over Don 20 (Magenta). In other words enter a trade on either a break of the 20 or 60 longer Don channels and exit on a shorter channel.

I only enter short if RSI is below 50 and longs if RSI is above 50.
I further look at the MA and enter in the direction of the shorter (green) MA.
These two the RSI and MA's are my filters.

You can set the time lines to any setting you want

Just to avoid confusion, you enter long if the upper channel is broken and visa versa for short

All settings is incorporated in the template already, you do not have to load and set the indicators. Just load the template onto your chart.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl don1.tpl   6 KB | 702 downloads
File Type: mq4 Donchian Channels.mq4   3 KB | 783 downloads
File Type: ex4 Donchian Channels.ex4   3 KB | 718 downloads
File Type: ex4 Dynamic_Zone_RSI.ex4   4 KB | 678 downloads
File Type: ex4 Binary_Time_Lines_C070124.ex4   10 KB | 743 downloads
  • #1,594
  • Jun 27, 2007 3:02pm Jun 27, 2007 3:02pm
I post a chart to show a sample entry and exit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: don chart1.jpg Size: 70 KB
  • #1,595
  • Jun 27, 2007 5:27pm Jun 27, 2007 5:27pm
Quoting Golfer
Hi EYE

In Apr (after a succesfull first month on demo with 70% pos rate) I went live and unfortunately I've tried to trade every setup I could catch. Without looking at the bigger picture. Disaster - positive trade went down to 45% and loss $40 on mini account. The April black hole. I was so confident!

Back to the drawing board for My Rules development, price movement study and demo trading. Hopefully I am a high probability trader now and I'll give it a try this month again.
So what you're saying, mate, is that it pays to take a step back when a potential trade is developing. Don't take it at face value. Check that the rules that you've put in place are actually being met. If they are, then when it's time to pull that trigger..........pull it!! If they aren't, then walk away from it, and wait for the next opportunity. Like buses, another will be along very soon.

This is basic, but nevertheless, superb advice, Golfer. Summed up......"Patience is a virtue."

Cheers
  • #1,596
  • Edited 9:41pm Jun 27, 2007 5:47pm | Edited 9:41pm
Hello all, just wanted to share a little trade that is currently open with + 35 pips locked with a combination of the 4H method and 5 min method. On the 4H, the MACD just gave an aggressive turnaround at 0:00hour GMT + 1 MIG time and about the same time, on my broker platform Oanda, gave a nice round retracement in the zone between the 10 and 21 EMA.

So, I thought this was a perfect opportunity to make a trade and got long at 165.245 and the trade is still going.

It is great when we can be at the computer at the right time and combine both methods of Phillip in one trade.

I am happy because usually I hesitate a lot before entering a trade resulting in a loss most of the time. But this time, I said to myself, I have seen a high probabilty trade so I need to take action.

Wishing good pips to all

Shreem

Update: Now my trade is closed with 43 pips gains. I would say WOW! if this was a full lot but it is only a micro lot. But at least, it has given me some insight about the necessity to react swiflty when I see a high probability trade.

Thank to Phillip, Golfer and others for these great methods.
  • #1,597
  • Jun 27, 2007 8:18pm Jun 27, 2007 8:18pm
Wish me luck everyone. I am going in to do some backtesting on this system. While I am not the first to do this, I know that I need to confirm that my personal trading style works with Phillips fine system. i will also be using pivot points as R/S lines and will incorporate them in my TP/stops. I have all of the daily and weekly pivots for the EURUSD since Jan 5th. If anyone is interested in them, let me know.
My expected results are as follows:

Max Risk 0.8%
RRR 44%
Accuracy 70% Based on backtest
Trades per Day 2 Based on stats for trade times
Trades per Wk 10
Max Loss 8 pips
Min Gain 10
Pips per Day 9.2

Accuracy of 60% yields 5.6 pips per day and 50% yields 2 pips per day.

Have I missed anything?
Are these results realistic?
Your comments are appreciated

Rick
  • #1,598
  • Jun 28, 2007 4:00am Jun 28, 2007 4:00am
Quoting eyevoltage
So what you're saying, mate, is that it pays to take a step back when a potential trade is developing. Don't take it at face value. Check that the rules that you've put in place are actually being met. If they are, then when it's time to pull that trigger..........pull it!! If they aren't, then walk away from it, and wait for the next opportunity. Like buses, another will be along very soon.

This is basic, but nevertheless, superb advice, Golfer. Summed up......"Patience is a virtue."

Cheers
Hi Eye

Great summary but just remember to develop your own style. Maybe my style is not what your are looking for. Maybe My Rules & style are too complicated for you - that is understandable. I think on one of the previous pages a trader made such a suggestion.

By all means please adapt it for your own style of trading - just keep the basics of Phillip's system in mind and I am sure you'll be successful.

That is why Phillip started this thread and shared his ideas/style with us.

Looking
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,599
  • Jun 28, 2007 7:04am Jun 28, 2007 7:04am
Quoting Golfer
Hi Eye

Great summary but just remember to develop your own style. Maybe my style is not what your are looking for. Maybe My Rules & style are too complicated for you - that is understandable. I think on one of the previous pages a trader made such a suggestion.

By all means please adapt it for your own style of trading - just keep the basics of Phillip's system in mind and I am sure you'll be successful.

That is why Phillip started this thread and shared his ideas/style with us.

Looking
No, Golfer, my summary was meant for any new traders looking in. It's always worth plugging the word "Patience", 'cos in the long run, it sure saves a lot of heartache!! For myself, I've adopted your style, mate, 'cos it suits me down to the ground. I just had to straighten one or two things out, but now it's very clear to me. Thanks primarily to Phillip, plus your good self, we now have a little gem here that I think encompasses the "KISS" theory. Keep it simple, don't complicate things, have patience, and watch those pips come rolling in!!
Cheers mate
  • #1,600
  • Jun 28, 2007 7:19am Jun 28, 2007 7:19am
Quoting Golfer
Hi W

Anytime, just register with Skype and send your Skype ID to one of the members already in the chat room. He/she will add you to the chat. Just take note that the chat consists of instant message (IM) and not "telephonic conversation". You can have private chats/telephonic conversation with members however.
What time GMT are you guys in Skype trading this?

Thanks!

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