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US Durable Goods

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 27, 2006 7:25pm Nov 27, 2006 7:25pm
Here are some things to think about for this trade.

in the last 10 trades it has reversed 9 out 10.

The initial spike:

00-10 * 1 Time
11-20 * 4 Times
21-30 * 5 Times
31-++ * 0 Times

The Total move:

00-10 * 0 Times
11-20 * 1 Time
21-30 * 4 Times
31-++ * 5 Times

There were 3 Whipsaws with an average candle of 20 pips

The 9 reversals generally all started after 10 minutes into the trade
and averaged 38 pips from the extreme of the original move.

My strategy... a close entry - 10 pips from price action, with a 15 pip stop and a 15 pip limit. This way if it goes 25-30 I will be ok.

Then I will watch for a reversal and try to market order for another 10 or so.

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #2
  • Nov 28, 2006 4:45am Nov 28, 2006 4:45am
Today, Durable Goods is perceived to be USD Negative:

Durable Goods estimate -5.0% ~ -8.0% from 8.0% last month

Durable Goods Ex-Transportation 0.2%~0.4% from 0.5% last month

I hate seeing a very wide spread in the estimate. Does anyone have a better (widely accepted) estimate?
  • #3
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:05am Nov 28, 2006 7:05am
im looking to sell gbp/usd, right after the spike, as the spike goes up giving me a good entry. things might change by 8:25am.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #4
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:08am Nov 28, 2006 7:08am
Hey Moe. Are you looking to fade the spike, or do you think it will spike up, then come down through where the price was originally before the news release?
  • #5
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:14am Nov 28, 2006 7:14am
or do you think it will spike up, then come down through where the price was originally before the news release?

yes. if it does go the other way i will know by 8:25. this will be even better because i will buy gbp/usd at 8:29.50 make some money then look to get back in with a sell and ride that for 100+ pips.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #6
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:21am Nov 28, 2006 7:21am
the way the market reacts to this release should give us some good insights into the latest dollar moves. if we get an overly large move, it could be dollar sellers using the report to mask them adding to their positions. and if the report is positive, yet the spike is met with heavy dollar selling, you know again that the big dollar sellers are adding to their positions. on the other hand, if we see no dollar sellers today, it could mean a retrace is in order.

should be fun!
Relax and be happy.
  • #7
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:26am Nov 28, 2006 7:26am
im selling gbp/usd right after the spike.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #8
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:33am Nov 28, 2006 7:33am
DGO is extremely USD negative!

Perhaps its possible to see GBP = 1.96USD soon!
  • #9
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:35am Nov 28, 2006 7:35am
Quoting Moe
im selling gbp/usd right after the spike.
Well, that's no fun.
  • #10
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:36am Nov 28, 2006 7:36am
Quoting Moe
im selling gbp/usd right after the spike.
im not buying $ antime soon, so no fading for me any day soon.....
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #11
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:38am Nov 28, 2006 7:38am
got my quick 20 pips actually made some money back from 2 days ago and yesterday.... it feels nice to see a posative money
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #12
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:39am Nov 28, 2006 7:39am
im surprised to see any retrace at all. numbers were horrible, the dollar sellers should be having a feild day. but this little retrace tells a different story. is someone taking profit? not enough sellers? is it just the news traders? lets watch and see, there is a story being told right now...
Relax and be happy.
  • #13
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:43am Nov 28, 2006 7:43am
Quoting twinchell
Well, that's no fun.
forex is never fun. all business
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #14
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:43am Nov 28, 2006 7:43am
i see two good trades right now...

1. buy EURUSD now at 1.3160, stop at 1.3140
2. sell EURUSD if it breaks 1.3140
Relax and be happy.
  • #15
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:46am Nov 28, 2006 7:46am
the rational for #1 is that this is a dip in a larger rally. durable good orders were VERY bad.

rational for #2 is that if the dollar shows strength in the face of that horrible report, then the dollar-sellers are weak and we are in for a retrace.
Relax and be happy.
  • #16
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:47am Nov 28, 2006 7:47am
Quoting merlin
im surprised to see any retrace at all. numbers were horrible, the dollar sellers should be having a feild day. but this little retrace tells a different story. is someone taking profit? not enough sellers? is it just the news traders? lets watch and see, there is a story being told right now...
Story? theres always a small retracement off of news no matter how bad or good the # because all the news traders have to take there profit somewhere. They arent going to take therer profit tommorrow, but after 1 to 4 minutes they will. I took my 20 pips as soon as it spiked then went down 5 pips , ive learned my lesson about watching profit dwindle
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #17
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:48am Nov 28, 2006 7:48am
Quoting merlin
im surprised to see any retrace at all. numbers were horrible, the dollar sellers should be having a feild day. but this little retrace tells a different story. is someone taking profit? not enough sellers? is it just the news traders? lets watch and see, there is a story being told right now...
Or perhaps they have nothing to sell anymore. Either:
1) USD hitting bottom?
2) Traders had shorted all they can and dont want to be caught on the top
3) Traders are cautious with the up coming data (Consumer Confidence and Housing and Ben)

Made money? a little. One broker went stop hunting touching my short = Break even. My other broker was just fine.
  • #18
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:49am Nov 28, 2006 7:49am
Quoting Ghostpipper
Story? theres always a small retracement off of news no matter how bad or good the # because all the news traders have to take there profit somewhere. They arent going to take therer profit tommorrow, but after 1 to 4 minutes they will. I took my 20 pips as soon as it spiked then went down 5 pips , ive learned my lesson about watching profit dwindle
yeah i hear ya, but today is slightly different because of the large dollar selloff in the last few days. this is the first big news report since the selloff began, so this is why i say it is telling a story, a more interesting story then your everyday durable goods report
Relax and be happy.
  • #19
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:49am Nov 28, 2006 7:49am
Quoting merlin
the rational for #1 is that this is a dip in a larger rally. durable good orders were VERY bad.

rational for #2 is that if the dollar shows strength in the face of that horrible report, then the dollar-sellers are weak and we are in for a retrace.
I'm putting my money on #2. How long can all this weakness go on? (Not my real money - I've made the mistake of going by instinct before. My instinct sucks ass.)
  • #20
  • Nov 28, 2006 7:50am Nov 28, 2006 7:50am
yeah #2 is looking better, but the price is hanging out right now, either could be right at this point..
Relax and be happy.
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