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A Tasty Standard - 45 DTE SPX Iron Condors

  • #81
  • Mar 6, 2024 5:18pm Mar 6, 2024 5:18pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I continue to ride the pig, crossing fingers for more downside off the NFP....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #82
  • Mar 6, 2024 6:14pm Mar 6, 2024 6:14pm
Looking to ride it to FOMC week, if I can. Watching levels 5000 to 5150, pretty tight. Short strikes: 5200 now @ 27 delta, 4975 @ 18 delta.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #83
  • Mar 8, 2024 10:25am Mar 8, 2024 10:25am
2 of the last 19 weeks red. Voracious appetite for stocks I'd guess will continue until the next extinction event. Probably an asteroid. If it hits directly on WS. That might do it. I remain in IC above, riding the pig down to oblivion. May try to run the CPI gauntlet.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #84
  • Mar 10, 2024 11:59pm Mar 10, 2024 11:59pm
daily net theta on the IC will be -45c Monday, but CPI Tuesday is a binary booger. Can reasonably expect a 1% move either way on a big outlier. EXmove for the week is 85, about 1.5%. I think risk for the trade is upside. If we see good move down Monday, I'll likely close the calls for about 50% profit. I 'd like to ride the pig for more, but sometimes you have to just draw a line...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #85
  • Mar 11, 2024 2:45am Mar 11, 2024 2:45am
Quoting The Fool
Looking to ride it to FOMC week, if I can. Watching levels 5000 to 5150, pretty tight. Short strikes: 5200 now @ 27 delta, 4975 @ 18 delta. {image}
Why don't you do it at the March 15 expiration. March 22 EXP has up to 2 times the event risk: Quadruple and FOMC
  • #86
  • Mar 11, 2024 10:15am Mar 11, 2024 10:15am
Quoting Antonysg
{quote} Why don't you do it at the March 15 expiration. March 22 EXP has up to 2 times the event risk: Quadruple and FOMC
Do what? (Not sure I understand the question.) Anyway, I am usually putting these on with the intent to take them off well b4 the expiry dates. If you scroll back and find the start of the trade, you'll see I mentioned I was timing the trade to miss FOMC week. Trading short verts in crummy vol means you're always stretching to find enough premium to make the trade worthwhile.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #87
  • Mar 11, 2024 11:31am Mar 11, 2024 11:31am
Per the current P/L's, the IC is up $120! Current deltas are nearly the same as they were when the original trade went on (although, the puts have been rolled up 100 pts once). Max profit on a 4-lot trade is $3,500. The trade is flat, in part, because iv's have come up a bit since the day it went on. Net daily theta coming up & is -$0.45 now.

I will probably hang in. Triple witch week may bounce around and end up flat. Would like to get it to FOMC week. I don't think Mar FOMC will be a big mover, though...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #88
  • Mar 13, 2024 9:15am Mar 13, 2024 9:15am
Quoting The Fool
I will probably hang in. Triple witch week may bounce around and end up flat. Would like to get it to FOMC week. I don't think Mar FOMC will be a big mover, though...
Praying for a pullback but looking at rolling. Not much I can do, but I'd likely go out to Apr opex (37dte) @5250/5275 calls, while cashing out the puts. All that would get me would be a small loss or gain. More data coming tomorrow, we'll see what that does. Maybe roll up the puts again, but, at this point, that'll only get me small change.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #89
  • Mar 13, 2024 7:23pm Mar 13, 2024 7:23pm
Bazillions at risk on triple witch Friday, 5200 looks like a gimme pin, but I am committed. Depending on what might happen tomorrow, I might do a small roll up of both puts & calls. I'd look to go to maybe 5,215 short, just to get off the pin. I could do this with another 30 pts up on the puts for a small loss.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #90
  • Mar 14, 2024 8:23am Mar 14, 2024 8:23am
Taking shape I see a pullback from yesterday's ath. Fingers crossed...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #91
  • Mar 14, 2024 12:23pm Mar 14, 2024 12:23pm
watch me ride it
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #92
  • Mar 14, 2024 12:49pm Mar 14, 2024 12:49pm
If we can close with some sell volume today I'll feel good about riding into next week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #93
  • Mar 14, 2024 2:55pm Mar 14, 2024 2:55pm
Quoting The Fool
If we can close with some sell volume today I'll feel good about riding into next week.
lol...btfd will never die...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #94
  • Mar 14, 2024 3:11pm Mar 14, 2024 3:11pm
no adjusts. Daily net theta will be -$0.75 by tomorrow's close.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #95
  • Mar 15, 2024 11:23am Mar 15, 2024 11:23am
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LOOKING for a $1 net out by Fed day. If SPX will stick around 5100, that'll be ideal. The "tasty standard" is 50% out. That's great if you get it in < 2 weeks. But, after sweating this one out, I'll probably want more...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #96
  • Mar 15, 2024 11:27pm Mar 15, 2024 11:27pm
Probably wait til end of next week to go again, see what the FOMC does for vol. Just looking to see what we have....shown is 46dte, ~20 delta shorts, 25-wide wings. Getting about $7.50. I might look at 30-wide wings. If we get a big move down next week, I might sell into that, leg into the puts, and wait on the calls. Something to be said for laying off the calls altogether in a bull market....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #97
  • Mar 16, 2024 9:15am Mar 16, 2024 9:15am
Quoting The Fool
Probably wait til end of next week to go again, see what the FOMC does for vol. Just looking to see what we have....shown is 46dte, ~20 delta shorts, 25-wide wings. Getting about $7.50. I might look at 30-wide wings. If we get a big move down next week, I might sell into that, leg into the puts, and wait on the calls. Something to be said for laying off the calls altogether in a bull market.... {image}
I have a similar position on. Good to see some payoff and live action at the factory! I will try to follow and chip in. I have also noticed your CPI double diagonal, I traded a similar one for loss.
I am going back to verticals and leave the volatility term structure alone. Another advantage of verticals is that, kind of vega neutral and more delta oriented, and unless some obvious IV mean reversion, direction and ranges are simpler to forecast for me than IV over term structure around events.

Although this 7dte, 15 delta Iron condor I have on now is trying to catch some of that focm vol crush.

I have also started using stop loss orders on these... To maintain a decent RR
  • #98
  • Mar 16, 2024 9:46am Mar 16, 2024 9:46am
Quoting cesare76fx
{quote} I have a similar position on. Good to see some payoff and live action at the factory! I will try to follow and chip in.
Hey amigo, good to see you & I hope you will share some trades & comments. Yeah, that RUT dbl diagonal burned me especially because it was in decent profit for an hour and I blew closing it. Absolute worst case result with RUT finishing dead flat in the midvalley. Oh well, onward. There are lots of good trades to be found this Spring.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #99
  • Mar 17, 2024 11:26pm Mar 17, 2024 11:26pm
50% credit would be about a $4.40 debit. Will get there Tuesday if SPX goes sideways, Net daily theta now is almost -$1.50. I plan to hold til the morning of the FOMC, at least. I am looking for a dump off hawkish noise from the Fed. But if SPX is over 5125 on Fed day, I'll likely cash out the IC.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #100
  • Mar 18, 2024 11:58am Mar 18, 2024 11:58am
Looking for a decent pullback on the big Monday gap up so I can roll up the puts a bit for some good profit.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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