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MTF Engulf / Engulf fail

  • #2,241
  • Edited 7:53am Mar 4, 2024 7:42am | Edited 7:53am
Quoting marshy
Hi Was looking to take a small scalp trade and trying to find my way to this style of trading, was watching Gold Spot early this Monday morning Frankfurt / London open, and concluded only weak market data would allow Gold to make new highs, so for now, the current Market bias would be down. I marked out my engulf zones...as charts show. Can anyone experienced in this methodology shed some light on what was the correct trade to make, or maybe no trade was available to take? Thanks in advance Peter. {image} {image}
before your 1st entry, ask yourself could the bullish eg makes px bounce higher high?
1st think of preventive loss, then think of profit. not the other way round.
your 2nd entry could be a possible entry.

when it is the start of the week, begin your analysis from w1.
now you know why price did not go higher.
i review from your point of view of a m5 entry chart.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #2,242
  • Mar 4, 2024 7:49am Mar 4, 2024 7:49am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} before your 1st entry, ask yourself could the bullish eg makes px bounce higher high? 1st think of preventive loss, then think of profit. not the other way round. your 2nd entry could be a possible entry. when it is the start of the week, begin your analysis from w1. now you know why price did not go higher. i review from your point of view of a m5 entry chart. {image} {image} {image}
Wow, thanks for the reply ITB, appreciated. Will study what you have said.

Regards
Peter.
“A setback is a setup for a comeback.”
  • #2,243
  • Mar 4, 2024 7:58am Mar 4, 2024 7:58am
anyone needs further clarification, can just post their charts
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #2,244
  • Mar 4, 2024 8:52am Mar 4, 2024 8:52am
Quoting marshy
{quote} Wow, thanks for the reply ITB, appreciated. Will study what you have said. Regards Peter.
Ah I see, is this what you were refering to when you said - before your 1st entry, ask yourself could the bullish eg makes px bounce higher high?
1st think of preventive loss, then think of profit. not the other way round.


Regards
Peter.
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“A setback is a setup for a comeback.”
  • #2,245
  • Mar 4, 2024 9:08am Mar 4, 2024 9:08am
Quoting marshy
{quote} Ah I see, is this what you were refering to when you said - before your 1st entry, ask yourself could the bullish eg makes px bounce higher high? 1st think of preventive loss, then think of profit. not the other way round. Regards Peter. {image}
what we are doing here is counter trend trading to the main direction.
counter trend has to be extra extra more careful.
the smaller the time frames the more risky it is. like the m5 and m1.
you can see that previously there were many others that failed.
the entry was so near to the orange bullish engulf.
in smaller time frames i mentioned in post #1 i prefer to see ef then a pullback to eg.
if ef happened it means a structure has been broken and wait for the pullback to eg.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #2,246
  • Mar 4, 2024 9:12am Mar 4, 2024 9:12am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} what we are doing here is counter trend trading to the main direction. counter trend has to be extra extra more careful. the smaller the time frames the more risky it is. like the m5 and m1. you can see that previously there were many others that failed. the entry was so near to the bullish engulf. in smaller time frames i mentioned in post #1 i prefer to see ef then a pullback to eg. if ef happened it means a structure has been broken and wait for the pullback to eg.
Thank you very much for the help in understanding, rearly appreciated.
“A setback is a setup for a comeback.”
  • #2,247
  • Edited 9:34am Mar 4, 2024 9:16am | Edited 9:34am
we can see now gold continued the uptrend
with new york open and had already moved over 200 pips.

so the question now is :
was it easier to counter trend or wait patiently for uptrend continuation?
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #2,248
  • Mar 4, 2024 3:51pm Mar 4, 2024 3:51pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} gold. from monday i indicated that i would be trading long for this week. now this applies to all kinds of methods, systems. you see 2 down days, will your confidence be shaken? will you start looking for another system? well, what happen if for coming 3 days are going to be up days? so far for me monday/tuesday was a winner even though a down day, tuesday now floating loss. {image}
Question regarding being bullish -
At the point you mentioned we were at bearish EP, what made you allow to look for buys and ignore the looking for shorts?
  • #2,249
  • Mar 4, 2024 3:53pm Mar 4, 2024 3:53pm
Quoting Inthebox
we can see now gold continued the uptrend with new york open and had already moved over 200 pips. so the question now is : was it easier to counter trend or wait patiently for uptrend continuation? {image} {image}
Hi ITB

Yes I see, patience, and wait for a trend continuation setup.
And as you recently said in a previous post -

Quote: - wait patiently is the name of the game.
having discipline to follow through and execute the rules of the plan.
finally to achieve the consistency of 4 wins out of every 5 trades.

And, I note from what you said, easier to not fight the trend. Thanks for your time and helpful lesson, I am going to go back to post number 1 and study diligently.

Kind Regards
Peter.
“A setback is a setup for a comeback.”
  • #2,250
  • Mar 4, 2024 8:30pm Mar 4, 2024 8:30pm
Quoting Irad
{quote} Question regarding being bullish - At the point you mentioned we were at bearish EP, what made you allow to look for buys and ignore the looking for shorts?
the w1 chart instructed to buy for the coming week.
Quoting Inthebox
gold direction for the week is up. which one can your eyes see better. 1. eg ef 2. fvg ifvg 3. snr {image}
so the h4 has to turn up, later the d1 will do the same, finally you see that the whole week ended with an up.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #2,251
  • Mar 5, 2024 3:13am Mar 5, 2024 3:13am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} the w1 chart instructed to buy for the coming week. {quote} so the h4 has to turn up, later the d1 will do the same, finally you see that the whole week ended with an up.
is this 30m better entry?
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  • #2,252
  • Mar 5, 2024 4:21am Mar 5, 2024 4:21am
Quoting Inthebox
for those who have attained some form of proficiency on the methods shown in this thread would have come to a conclusion and summary that they are all but a repeat of what was already said in post# 1. 1. drawing higher time frames eg / ef to map out the key levels and direction of trades. 2. wait patiently for price to arrive at the key levels during markets open / sessions. 3. wait patiently for lower time frames eg / ef trade set up to align with those of higher time frames. wait patiently is the name of the game. having discipline to follow through...
I've noticed you trade without using traditional stop-losses, instead opting to add to positions at the next EG. This is pretty different from placing stops above the nearest structure, and I'm curious about it!
How do you decide when to add on rather than cut losses?
What's your method for picking the next EG?
How do you handle risk without standard stop-loss order?
Do you find this strategy more effective?
Would love to hear your thoughts and any tips you have on this approach.
The scent of a rose will always stay on the hand of the giver.
  • #2,253
  • Mar 5, 2024 4:21am Mar 5, 2024 4:21am
Quoting LeongPuiy
{quote} is this 30m better entry? {image}
m30 has 2 set ups.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #2,254
  • Mar 5, 2024 4:30am Mar 5, 2024 4:30am
Quoting LeongPuiy
{quote} is this 30m better entry? {image}
Look D1
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  • #2,255
  • Mar 5, 2024 4:41am Mar 5, 2024 4:41am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} m30 has 2 set ups. {image}
it reached.
but perhaps i wait NY and NYSE first
  • #2,256
  • Mar 5, 2024 4:52am Mar 5, 2024 4:52am
Quoting VanKenobi
{quote} I've noticed you trade without using traditional stop-losses, instead opting to add to positions at the next EG. This is pretty different from placing stops above the nearest structure, and I'm curious about it! How do you decide when to add on rather than cut losses? What's your method for picking the next EG? How do you handle risk without standard stop-loss order? Do you find this strategy more effective? Would love to hear your thoughts and any tips you have on this approach.
if you are talking about last week entries, i was bringing across the power of w1 direction for the week.
when trading without SL, one has to reduce the normal unit size to half or one third (or quarter as the trader sees fit)
one has to space out the entries and be selective when to trade.
as already mentioned best chance is during market open with eg ef align with w1 direction.
this is more effective for swing traders than short term ones.
those working with limited trading time.
exit will be a d1 candle with opposite set up.

short term day traders scalpers still follow post #1 rules for SL.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #2,257
  • Mar 5, 2024 10:12am Mar 5, 2024 10:12am
let's just observe for m1 proper qm to form.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #2,258
  • Mar 5, 2024 4:22pm Mar 5, 2024 4:22pm
Hey ITM,
nice thread!
I'm at a point in my trading career where I try to understand correct utilization of multi timeframes.

Am I reading this right?
NDX100
WEEKLY - currently we are all time highs in the weekly suggesting further move up if we don't get forming EP,
DAILY - CMP Formed bearish engulfing which right into demand so this is a concern I have in mind in terms of longs
H4 - CMP declined into the 4h demand as well, suggesting to look for confirmation in LTF
M15/H1 - I see EF suggesting I can take longs from a retest of the EF or from the formed 15m/60m demand.
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profiting on actionable patterns
  • #2,259
  • Mar 5, 2024 9:01pm Mar 5, 2024 9:01pm
higher time frame and lower time frame combo during market open.
the pattern is eg and ef.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #2,260
  • Mar 5, 2024 9:26pm Mar 5, 2024 9:26pm
Quoting Inthebox
higher time frame and lower time frame combo during market open. the pattern is eg and ef. {image}
Excellent!

Please also show the schema using the same level for RBS entry and how to tell from the LTF that the level is not holding so it's time to fold and reverse.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
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