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  • #11,041
  • Feb 29, 2024 11:21am Feb 29, 2024 11:21am
Quoting niks
{quote} thanks Abade! the bias was up, i missed the big move but that was sharply rejected - after ranging a bit, it continued heading up as resistance in the range now becomes support along with ema200 - it also looked like a "U" pattern forming to me where the left leg drops sharply, then it ranges at the bottom where i enter for it to shoot back up just as quickly! the target was prior resistance which wasn't so sharply rejected... i'm also having another crack! this is a trend continuation with entries down to ema200 to act as support targeting...
Thanks for sharing your analysis @niks, I have not studied bitcoin in full detail, but will try to come up with a mechanical system for it (if possible). I notice the upward bias was a lot stronger in the early days, now we got a lot of ranging periods, perhaps the continuation trades are the best option for a rule based approach in this instrument.
  • #11,042
  • Feb 29, 2024 12:59pm Feb 29, 2024 12:59pm
Quoting Abade
{quote} Thanks for sharing your analysis @niks, I have not studied bitcoin in full detail, but will try to come up with a mechanical system for it (if possible). I notice the upward bias was a lot stronger in the early days, now we got a lot of ranging periods, perhaps the continuation trades are the best option for a rule based approach in this instrument.
Bitcoin could get interesting as we head towards the halving.

Good day here, recouped half of what was lost yesterday. As i look over the screenshots some are not the strongest of entries but at the same time they could of been worse. Work is crazy at the moment so I can only glance at the charts on the odd occasion when my alerts go off. I'm not getting the screen time I'd like but happy things are moving in the right direction.
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  • #11,043
  • Feb 29, 2024 3:38pm Feb 29, 2024 3:38pm
Quoting PR31D
{quote} Bitcoin could get interesting as we head towards the halving. Good day here, recouped half of what was lost yesterday. As i look over the screenshots some are not the strongest of entries but at the same time they could of been worse. Work is crazy at the moment so I can only glance at the charts on the odd occasion when my alerts go off. I'm not getting the screen time I'd like but happy things are moving in the right direction. {image} {image} {image}
@PR31D I'd say those are well-timed entries and exits, and that you are getting the hang of it very fast, good job!

Tradingview has very interesting machine learning indicators that are 100% free, perhaps one of those is worth testing for confirmation/bias.
  • #11,044
  • Feb 29, 2024 6:38pm Feb 29, 2024 6:38pm
Hey guys, thanks for this thread. It is pure gold. I have started trading the ema pull backs and combining it with Keltner channels is even more exciting. I just have one question. May I know what is your criteria to exist a bad trade (you target loss or something crosses something) or how to avoid them? Although I didn't do the trade in the attachment (the peaks and the arrows are based on the ema pullback strategy, volume < sma 20, and emas condition) but it looks like a potential entry (Right?). How can this be avoided or exit with less loss.. I'd be grateful for any advice.
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  • #11,045
  • Feb 29, 2024 6:50pm Feb 29, 2024 6:50pm
Quoting Abade
{quote} Thanks for sharing your analysis @niks, I have not studied bitcoin in full detail, but will try to come up with a mechanical system for it (if possible). I notice the upward bias was a lot stronger in the early days, now we got a lot of ranging periods, perhaps the continuation trades are the best option for a rule based approach in this instrument.
always a pleasure Abade! i only demo trade bitcoin on weekends, still far from trading it live, it is too expensive and too wild for me!

i have no idea about and have never studied its fundamentals - but it has changed a lot technically since i started trading it about six months ago, back then, the price action just appeared to be algorithmically driven by robots, not traders, and was difficult to trade manually, but now, it feels like it is more trader driven and easier to analyse...

one observation i've made that may assist in your development is that it respects support and resistance really well, so when dealing with such wide ranges, that may be important... good luck!

Quoting PR31D
Bitcoin could get interesting as we head towards the halving.
i've not heard of this, what does it mean?
every minute matters!
  • #11,046
  • Feb 29, 2024 7:13pm Feb 29, 2024 7:13pm
Quoting micromin
Hey guys, thanks for this thread. It is pure gold. I have started trading the ema pull backs and combining it with Keltner channels is even more exciting. I just have one question. May I know what is your criteria to exist a bad trade (you target loss or something crosses something) or how to avoid them? Although I didn't do the trade in the attachment (the peaks and the arrows are based on the ema pullback strategy, volume < sma 20, and emas condition) but it looks like a potential entry (Right?). How can this be avoided or exit with less loss.....
Welcome @micromin! That was not too bad as an entry point, but you shouldn't expect price to mirror the same move downwards with the same force and speed in every trade, you have to measure this in real-time. Also:

1) You have to get used to the ups and downs in your equity (downs are unavoidable with ANY strategy).
2) Have a max equity DD limit (20%, 30%) before closing all your trades, this should be your catastrophic stop loss (improve yourself so you never reach it). Every person has a different risk profile, you have to find yours.
3) Trade minimal lot size to reduce the chance of reaching such DD limit.
4) Get used to the average volatility of the instrument you are trading to space your entries. As a general rule: more space = more safety.
5) If you are in a deep drawdown try to exit at the next pullback, which is usually a support becoming resistance or resistance becoming support. Please note that some instruments respect these levels more than others.
6) Low volatility + tight consolidation/range + close to the 200 EMA usually indicates that price is getting ready for a strong move, and you should be careful.
7) Start a journal and describe the conditions you had for good and bad trades, other good and bad habits you have, etc. Just as other traders do here!

Hope that helps
  • #11,047
  • Feb 29, 2024 7:23pm Feb 29, 2024 7:23pm
Quoting Abade
{quote} Welcome @micromin! That was not too bad as an entry point, but you shouldn't expect price to mirror the same move downwards with the same force and speed in every trade, you have to measure this in real-time. Also: 1) You have to get used to the ups and downs in your equity (downs are unavoidable with ANY strategy). 2) Have a max equity DD limit (20%, 30%) before closing all your trades, this should be your catastrophic stop loss (improve yourself so you never reach it). Every person has a different risk profile, you have to find yours....
Thanks a lot. It was very helpful.
  • #11,048
  • Feb 29, 2024 7:48pm Feb 29, 2024 7:48pm
Quoting micromin
{quote} Thanks a lot. It was very helpful.
entering on the first arrow would be aggressive, best to let the strong move settle down first...

this is a discretionary strategy, not a rules based strategy, so you don't enter every time a certain condition exists, context must be considered...

likewise, the criteria for exiting a bad trade is not rules based either, it is up to you and dependant on your experience level...

the second arrow is a better entry and with more experience you would of held until the return to ema200 for profit, even if you entered on the first arrow...

the spacing between the two arrows is perfect, once the first entry moves into drawdown, leaving a big space for subsequent entries is ideal...

the instrument you are trading however - it is not ideal for learning this strategy... best of luck to you!
every minute matters!
  • #11,049
  • Feb 29, 2024 8:14pm Feb 29, 2024 8:14pm
M1 XAUUSD
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every minute matters!
  • #11,050
  • Feb 29, 2024 9:50pm Feb 29, 2024 9:50pm
Quoting micromin
Hey guys, thanks for this thread. It is pure gold. I have started trading the ema pull backs and combining it with Keltner channels is even more exciting. I just have one question. May I know what is your criteria to exist a bad trade (you target loss or something crosses something) or how to avoid them? Although I didn't do the trade in the attachment (the peaks and the arrows are based on the ema pullback strategy, volume < sma 20, and emas condition) but it looks like a potential entry (Right?). How can this be avoided or exit with less loss.....
@niks speaks truth, Nasdaq has a very strong upward bias so shorting is usually not a good idea. The same is true for the rest of the stock indices.
  • #11,051
  • Mar 1, 2024 12:21am Mar 1, 2024 12:21am
M1 XAUUSD
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every minute matters!
  • #11,052
  • Mar 1, 2024 12:57am Mar 1, 2024 12:57am
Quoting niks
{quote} i've not heard of this, what does it mean?
https://www.coindesk.com/learn/bitco...ing-explained/
  • #11,053
  • Mar 1, 2024 7:58am Mar 1, 2024 7:58am
Quoting niks
{quote} entering on the first arrow would be aggressive, best to let the strong move settle down first... this is a discretionary strategy, not a rules based strategy, so you don't enter every time a certain condition exists, context must be considered... likewise, the criteria for exiting a bad trade is not rules based either, it is up to you and dependant on your experience level... the second arrow is a better entry and with more experience you would of held until the return to ema200 for profit, even if you entered on the first arrow... the...
Thanks for the insight. I will keep what you said in mind for sure. I have started looking at XAUUSD as well and have been following the screenshots you post here, they are really helpful. and eye opening.
  • #11,054
  • Mar 1, 2024 8:01am Mar 1, 2024 8:01am
Quoting Abade
{quote} @niks speaks truth, Nasdaq has a very strong upward bias so shorting is usually not a good idea. The same is true for the rest of the stock indices.
Thanks for the hint (upward bias), and yes I have been following (reading posts, etc.) you, @niks, and @cpfleger and I feel my trading has changed a lot recently.
  • #11,055
  • Mar 1, 2024 11:28am Mar 1, 2024 11:28am
M1 XAUUSD
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Quoting PR31D
{quote} https://www.coindesk.com/learn/bitco...ing-explained/
that's interesting, i didn't know that, thank you!

Quoting micromin
{quote} Thanks for the insight. I will keep what you said in mind for sure. I have started looking at XAUUSD as well and have been following the screenshots you post here, they are really helpful. and eye opening.
you're welcome and glad to hear you find them helpful, i'd recommend that trading gold with this strategy should only be considered after reaching an intermediate level...
every minute matters!
  • #11,056
  • Mar 1, 2024 2:57pm Mar 1, 2024 2:57pm
Rounded off the week on a high, the second time I've managed 0.5% gain on the account. Pleased with all my trades today, especially the EURGBP trade. Looking forward to a weekend of some beer and practice.

Below - Entered at the perfect time. Sailed all the way down to the 200 TP.
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Below - Good distance from 200 and a nice push through the BB. Volume dropping off in uptrend. All good looking.
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Below - I didnt stick to my 200 TP target as I was heading out to lunch and I'm still playing it safe given my run in with the news event earlier in the week. The 50 was more than okay.
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Quoting micromin
{quote} Thanks for the insight. I will keep what you said in mind for sure. I have started looking at XAUUSD as well and have been following the screenshots you post here, they are really helpful. and eye opening.
As Nik said its best avoided until you get a feel for the strat. It can suddenly take off and if you are not prepared it's some ride. Not easy on the nerves if you're new. I was recommended to stick to the big pairs in the beginning and its solid advice, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and AUDUSD are good to learn on.

Have a good weekend all!
  • #11,057
  • Edited 7:51pm Mar 1, 2024 7:27pm | Edited 7:51pm
Quoting micromin
Ehi ragazzi, grazie per questo thread. È oro puro. Ho iniziato a scambiare i pull back dell'EMA e combinarlo con i canali Keltner è ancora più entusiasmante. Ho giusto una domanda. Posso sapere quali sono i tuoi criteri per considerare un cattivo scambio (miri alla perdita o qualcosa incrocia qualcosa) o come evitarli? Anche se non ho effettuato lo scambio nell'allegato (i picchi e le frecce si basano sulla strategia di pullback ema, volume < sma 20 e condizione emas), ma sembra una potenziale entrata (giusto?). Come può essere evitato o uscire...
If you know the patterns of inversion with candles, you can add the indicator M-candles and choice the best higher timeframe. It will become more clear.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 M-Candles.ex4   15 KB | 280 downloads
File Type: mq4 M-Candles.mq4   8 KB | 291 downloads
  • #11,058
  • Mar 1, 2024 7:44pm Mar 1, 2024 7:44pm
Quoting PR31D
Rounded off the week on a high, the second time I've managed 0.5% gain on the account. Pleased with all my trades today, especially the EURGBP trade. Looking forward to a weekend of some beer and practice.
very well done, you deserve the beer, but after the practice! have a good one...
every minute matters!
  • #11,059
  • Mar 2, 2024 12:17am Mar 2, 2024 12:17am
M1 BTCUSD - weekend exercise - trend change study!
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every minute matters!
  • #11,060
  • Mar 2, 2024 10:17am Mar 2, 2024 10:17am
Quoting PR31D
Rounded off the week on a high, the second time I've managed 0.5% gain on the account. Pleased with all my trades today, especially the EURGBP trade. Looking forward to a weekend of some beer and practice. Below - Entered at the perfect time. Sailed all the way down to the 200 TP. {image} Below - Good distance from 200 and a nice push through the BB. Volume dropping off in uptrend. All good looking. {image} Below - I didnt stick to my 200 TP target as I was heading out to lunch and I'm still playing it safe given my run in with the news event earlier...
Got it, thanks for the suggestion. I actually traded gold on Friday and it was crazy, last week grew my account by 15% by combining different strategies (weekly pivot, Keltner and Emas), I did trend following mostly for gold yesterday since it was going for a long ride.. but with my account size I might stick to few major currencies for now.
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