Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles | Page 250 | Forex Factory

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Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

  • #4,981
  • Feb 22, 2024 9:08am Feb 22, 2024 9:08am
I didn’t enter on this one, but I know I could have if I would seen it. What would the reasons for Vidvad or Rocky be to not enter this one?
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  • #4,982
  • Feb 22, 2024 9:09am Feb 22, 2024 9:09am
Quoting rockypoint
{quote} I'm not sure from your charts but are you long entries on Red candles?
Sometimes a candle opens green but closes red, rocky.

I take entries where the ema's are aligned for bull trades, and then there is a pullback (red candle). I wait for one green candle to close and then buy the next green open.

However, if there is a swing high level just above price action, I wait for a green candle to close above the swing high. It looks like he was buying into a resistance level and not enough room was there to get to a decent profit target or even move his stop loss in.

It is hard to see exactly what was going on because most of the chart is hidden from us. We need to see full chart screen shots.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #4,983
  • Feb 22, 2024 9:13am Feb 22, 2024 9:13am
Quoting ABA27
I didn’t enter on this one, but I know I could have if I would seen it. What would the reasons for Vidvad or Rocky be to not enter this one? {image}
Nothing wrong with that being a long entry as the green candle closed above the little swing area.

You guys do realize that NOT all trades are winners. The idea is "At the end of 20 trades, do I have a larger account than I started with or a smaller account?"

And in all cases, if you are doing this correctly, the answer should be yes.

You absolutley can't sweat the result of any one particular trade. It is just one trade of thousands that you will take during the rest of your life.

Signals are probability indicators, not prediction indicators.

A long signal means there is a greater probability that price continues higher for a bit than that it turns and goes lower.

A short signal means there is a greater probability that price goes lower for a bit before it turns higher.

We are trading on probabilities, and that means there will be winners AND losers.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #4,984
  • Feb 22, 2024 9:16am Feb 22, 2024 9:16am
Yes I am aware that not all entries can be winners, but just to prevent that I am not entering on wrong decisions. As long as I follow the rules and loose, I don’t mind
  • #4,985
  • Feb 22, 2024 9:17am Feb 22, 2024 9:17am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Nothing wrong with that being a long entry as the green candle closed above the little swing area. You guys do realize that NOT all trades are winners. The idea is "At the end of 20 trades, do I have a larger account than I started with or a smaller account?" And in all cases, if you are doing this correctly, the answer should be yes. You absolutley can't sweat the result of any one particular trade. It is just one trade of thousands that you will take during the rest of your life. Signals are probability indicators, not prediction indicators....
Love the trading wisdom Vidvad you just opened my eyes to one of my many questions much appreciated.
  • #4,986
  • Feb 22, 2024 9:21am Feb 22, 2024 9:21am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} You have to change that attitude. You know why some trades lose? Because our system indicated that there was a higher probabiility that if we buy here, then enough traders will come in after us willing to pay even higher prices than we did, pushing price up to our profit target. Any trade might have a 65% chance of going to our profit target before going to our stop loss. That means any trade has a 35% chance of going to our stop loss before going to our profit target. This is a probability game, not a prediction game. We are not predicting...
Okay thanks for the feedback! I saw rocky sending this morning to keep a "shit don't make that mistake again list" and interpreted that as asking myself why a trade went wrong. This clear explanation helps.

Sorry for that! I wanted to zoom in, so it would be easier to see, I didn't know it was that important to see the whole chart. I edited the post with the small picture. Now you can see the complete chart.
  • #4,987
  • Feb 22, 2024 9:35am Feb 22, 2024 9:35am
Quoting Rickvdp
Traded for 45 minutes, although PA was really nice before I started trading, I couldn't take advantage of that today: I opened 2 buy trades in both situations the 8EMA high was above the 34EMA and I bought on the open after a red candle and then a green candle: {image} The first one immediately went down which resulted in a loss -20 ticks, the other one had 2 green bars up after a moment, so I could make the loss -13 ticks, because I moved the stoploss. I am not sure yet why the trades are lost. I am going to take another look into it. However I...
Ok I get that candle turned from green to red after entry, but you ,had to previous candles which didn't break up. 2nd trade was also a long but entry candle never broke above ema tunnel.
  • #4,988
  • Feb 22, 2024 9:40am Feb 22, 2024 9:40am
Small loss.
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  • #4,989
  • Feb 22, 2024 9:43am Feb 22, 2024 9:43am
Quoting rockypoint
{quote} Ok I get that candle turned from green to red after entry, but you ,had to previous candles which didn't break up. 2nd trade was also a long but entry candle never broke above ema tunnel.
I’m not quite sure whether I am completing understand you, so let me know when I have something wrong.

What do you exactly mean with the previous candles that didn’t break up? That the previous candle needs to close above the 8EMA high?

On the second trade; I opened the trade when the current price was above the 8EMA high on the entry candle, you can see the blue arrow, which is above the 8EMA high.

Again let me know if I understand something wrong, because I am learning so much from your feedback!
  • #4,990
  • Feb 22, 2024 10:12am Feb 22, 2024 10:12am
Quoting Rickvdp
{quote} I’m not quite sure whether I am completing understand you, so let me know when I have something wrong. What do you exactly mean with the previous candles that didn’t break up? That the previous candle needs to close above the 8EMA high? On the second trade; I opened the trade when the current price was above the 8EMA high on the entry candle, you can see the blue arrow, which is above the 8EMA high. Again let me know if I understand something wrong, because I am learning so much from your feedback!
2 of 3 previous candles closed at same price, middle candle was a doji (which means indecision) therefore by way I trade its best to wait for a close above that level.
Second trade Ok at one point price was above ema. But first you just had a unsuccessful long trade and now are entering close to previous resistance and Ema tunnel was sloping slightly down. Odds are not in your favor.
  • #4,991
  • Feb 22, 2024 10:23am Feb 22, 2024 10:23am
Small win. Just so you understand why I took this trade with entry so close to resistance. Because I had a bearish divergence which boosts my odds a little.
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  • #4,992
  • Feb 22, 2024 10:25am Feb 22, 2024 10:25am
Now I'll watch awhile as PA has turned to mush.
  • #4,993
  • Feb 22, 2024 10:33am Feb 22, 2024 10:33am
new here.. n im kinda lost.. the thread was about psar and now i see renko.. can someone please help me find the beginning of renko here? much appreciated @rockypoint
  • #4,994
  • Feb 22, 2024 10:35am Feb 22, 2024 10:35am
Quoting ABA27
Yes I am aware that not all entries can be winners, but just to prevent that I am not entering on wrong decisions. As long as I follow the rules and loose, I don’t mind
I had to run a few errands so I couldn't respond to the chart you psted fully.

So looking at that area that you asked about on MY chart, I would have disregarded the smal swing indicator, I would have entered sooner, because the resistance area I'd have been focused upon would have been last night's high and last week's high.

The heavy pink line is last week's high, and just to the left you will see last night's premarket high.
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Here is my chart zoomed out so you can see all the levels I watch. Each of these is far more important to me than any nearby minor swing high or minor swing low printed by the swing indicator. The swing indicator is excellent when trading in between these levels.
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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #4,995
  • Feb 22, 2024 10:55am Feb 22, 2024 10:55am
Quoting Rickvdp
{quote} Okay thanks for the feedback! I saw rocky sending this morning to keep a "shit don't make that mistake again list" and interpreted that as asking myself why a trade went wrong.
You can always ask yourself and indeed you should review all of your trades at the end of the day, and at the end of the week go back and review all of the signals, both the ones you took and the ones you missed.

Mistake will be made, especially when you are new to the method.

When I started with the method I was around a 55% profitable/45% losses.

As I gained experience, I improved: 60%/40% then 65%/35%.

Now I have a lot of days with mostly winning trades.

I mentioned I was doing a Tradovate demo the other day. I was practicing, learning the software. Yesterday I started trading a Tradovate Demo as part of a prop firm evaluation.

Here is my performance from yesterday and today:
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80% wins/20% losses ... This is very close to my regular performance now. Usually no better than this, sometimes 70%/30%, and if I'm stupid and I get caught trying to trade inside a trading range, I might be 50%/50% on dumb days (when I am dumb, not the market - the market is always right!)

But I've been working with the rocky method and playing with different indi's and trading it almost every day for almost two years now I believe. So if your results don't look like mine or like rocky's you have to remember that practice is the only thing that makes he and I different from you. We're not "better" than you. We are more practiced than you.

Imo, this is close to the best method I have ever tried. It's simple to understand, but it still isn't easy to put into practice out of the box.

There can and will be operator errors. You'll make mistakes. But you should never have to question why a trade lost. If it was an error, it should be plain to you: There was no signal yet you took the trade. But if the signal was good, then the reason any trade wins or loses is just a matter of playing the game of numbers.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #4,996
  • Feb 22, 2024 11:18am Feb 22, 2024 11:18am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} I had to run a few errands so I couldn't respond to the chart you psted fully. So looking at that area that you asked about on MY chart, I would have disregarded the smal swing indicator, I would have entered sooner, because the resistance area I'd have been focused upon would have been last night's high and last week's high. The heavy pink line is last week's high, and just to the left you will see last night's premarket high. {image} Here is my chart zoomed out so you can see all the levels I watch. Each of these is far more important...
Thanks Vidvad for your explanation, normally I also always mark previous day highs and lows and weekly highs and lows and daily open of current day, however, as I am practicing just the entries, I don't want to get extracted by these levels. Knowing that I would do to much thinking which would make me not to enter a certain trade. When I get better, I will definitely draw these lines.
  • #4,997
  • Feb 22, 2024 11:27am Feb 22, 2024 11:27am
[quote=vidvad;14766294]{quote} You can always ask yourself and indeed you should review all of your trades at the end of the day, and at the end of the week go back and review all of the signals, both the ones you took and the ones you missed. Mistake will be made, especially when you are new to the method. When I started with the method I was around a 55% profitable/45% losses. As I gained experience, I improved: 60%/40% then 65%/35%. Now I have a lot of days with mostly winning trades.

This is so motivational to read how you have improved yourself with time and many other things you and Rocky have shared here have been eyeopeners for me. I appreciate the honesty of most people in this thread, and it's nice to read about the journey of others. Also, as someone else mentioned earlier, you and Rocky have great chemistry and are like the godfathers of this thread. I appreciate the time you both take to be here. I hope this thread will exist for a very long time
  • #4,998
  • Edited 12:01pm Feb 22, 2024 11:29am | Edited 12:01pm
Quoting ABA27
{quote} Thanks Vidvad for your explanation, normally I also always mark previous day highs and lows and weekly highs and lows and daily open of current day, however, as I am practicing just the entries, I don't want to get extracted by these levels. Knowing that I would do to much thinking which would make me not to enter a certain trade. When I get better, I will definitely draw these lines.
That's fine, but I wouldn't practice for too long without these levels. They are extremely important. May I tell you why?

Because the market doesn't care what color our renko HA candle is or where our 8 ema tunnel is relative to the 34 ema or the ADX or the MACD or whatever.

But the ENTIRE world of professional market participants KNOW for CERTAIN where these levels are and they are always adjusting their positions and expectations based on where price is relative to one of these levels and how the market behaves when price is AT one of these levels.

Everyone sees the daily high and low, the weekly high and low.

Only we see our 8 ema tunnel and whatever other indicators we choose to use to help US frame price action and how WE will behave relative to price action.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #4,999
  • Feb 22, 2024 11:35am Feb 22, 2024 11:35am
Quoting ssumanaj
new here.. n im kinda lost.. the thread was about psar and now i see renko.. can someone please help me find the beginning of renko here? much appreciated @rockypoint
This is where the magic started.

Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles | Page 112 | Forex Factory
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #5,000
  • Feb 22, 2024 11:44am Feb 22, 2024 11:44am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} You can always ask yourself and indeed you should review all of your trades at the end of the day, and at the end of the week go back and review all of the signals, both the ones you took and the ones you missed. Mistake will be made, especially when you are new to the method. When I started with the method I was around a 55% profitable/45% losses. As I gained experience, I improved: 60%/40% then 65%/35%. Now I have a lot of days with mostly winning trades. I mentioned I was doing a Tradovate demo the other day. I was practicing, learning...
Haha - I remember, and still do dumb trades. I have caught myself taking trades within a pre marked range, having marked a losing long and losing short and drawing lines forward to await a break. Instead of sitting out the range I started tinkering - Patience ! Well the market soon slapped me for that. Another dumb action was trading against a trend indicated to me by a channel similar to Rockies - why i do that- goodness knows. Waiting is good. I keep a journal of trades from printoffs and my slips of discipline jump out at me. I never will be perfect
and I have yet to reach 80/20 hit rate. Had some sillier losses when in one or more of the aforementioned idiotic trades where I watched the stop loss being hit but hung on thinking trade would reverse - it didn't. In short my profit would be greater than it is if I kept working on my weak points.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
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