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Great GBP/USD Strategy for Swing Trades

  • #821
  • Jun 26, 2007 4:55am Jun 26, 2007 4:55am
Quoting mattfx
No other changes, stochs ignored
I am live testing, so will keep updated although this was the first signal since May 2nd
I see this as a very successful long term stategy
...so from this post i'm assuming you have now tweaked the exit method (from just 4/13 crosses), to include the trailing 50 stoploss, but that your manual backtest was based purely on the 4/13 cross....just wanting to be clear on what has been/is being tested.
  • #822
  • Jun 26, 2007 5:01am Jun 26, 2007 5:01am
Hi all,
I have just read my last post and realised that this strategy has no exit strategy other than "exit at the EMA4 cross with the 13EMA cross at the opening of a new 4 hour candle" yet I have trailed a 50 pip stop from the entry signal with great success, and hence the interjection with my my last post as we approach another potential cross on the indicators. However now that we are approaching "crunch time" cross immanent (or not?) we need to prepare for the exit. The most remarkable observation is that we need to check EACH AND EVERY 4 HOUR candle for this cross and be prepared accordingly to exit, unfortunately the signal may occur while we are not at our computers, asleep, on holidays, having sex, drunk or whatever. These variables have not been allowed for on my back test. Perhaps an EA on this strategy would be welcome.

mattfx
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #823
  • Jun 26, 2007 5:22am Jun 26, 2007 5:22am
Quoting mattfx
yet I have trailed a 50 pip stop from the entry signal with great success
...ok, so how have you trailed - using increments of pips? or trailing best net pips by 50 from entry?
  • #824
  • Jun 26, 2007 5:37am Jun 26, 2007 5:37am
Hi Chow,
My back test has been performed only with hindsight and a maximum stop of 50 pips from the cross of the EMA4 and EMA13, due to the "human" factors mentioned before, I have trailed a 50 pip stop since the entry signal on real account. I have not "tweaked" past results yet I have also recorded this very same trading system with max 100 pip limit and basically abandoned that as it was less profitable.

mattfx
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #825
  • Jun 26, 2007 5:48am Jun 26, 2007 5:48am
OK, thanks matt.
  • #826
  • Edited 8:01am Jun 26, 2007 7:47am | Edited 8:01am
Quoting TiKin
By the way, I want to point out that the recross upward of the EMA4 and the LRI13 was a very strong bullish signal (22-06 8:00)

...the 4xLRI looking promising again, TiKin. Crossing, not crossed...yet. Could well be a pop and drop.
  • #827
  • Jun 26, 2007 9:25am Jun 26, 2007 9:25am
ok, thanks for that Tikin.
  • #828
  • Jun 27, 2007 3:11am Jun 27, 2007 3:11am
Hi again all.

Does anybody know which other currency pairs this system works well with ?

mike
  • #829
  • Jun 27, 2007 3:13am Jun 27, 2007 3:13am
...just had the 4x13 exit on FXCM's ChartStation, with a new 4hr period opening at 1.9944 at 9am (BST). A decent +120 trade from the 18th June entry.
  • #830
  • Edited 8:01am Jun 27, 2007 7:29am | Edited 8:01am
Hi all,
We have an exit signal around 1.9946 WE HAVE AN EXIT SIGNAL according to my data, which is "at the open of the next four hour candle post EMA4 and cross of EMA13", The "no brainer system", also works well on bar chart's, and most other vendor provided systems

Comments appreciated,

mattfx
Without women, money would have no meaning - Aristotle Onassis
  • #831
  • Jun 27, 2007 7:39am Jun 27, 2007 7:39am
Quoting mattfx
Hi all,
We have an exit signal around 1.9946 WE HAVE AN EXIT SIGNAL according to my data
...out of interest, matt, what charting do you use?

Cheers
Chow
  • #832
  • Jun 27, 2007 7:50am Jun 27, 2007 7:50am
Quoting mattfx
Remember to move Stop Loss for max loss at 50 pips, stop now now moved to 1.9930
FXCM printed 9927 bid earlier in the UK session...what was your low?...i take it your 9930 stop wasn't hit.
  • #833
  • Edited 6:27pm Jun 27, 2007 9:23am | Edited 6:27pm
In my opinion, as we are trading on a 4H chart, no need to exit as soon as we see the exit signal within minutes- not that hurry. If you see previous events and this trade as well, after the signal (cross)appeared, now the price is up again by several considerable pips. So, I think exit can be made in the 4 hour period or so. Please advise me if I am wrong.
Quoting mattfx
Hi all,
We have an exit signal around 1.9946 WE HAVE AN EXIT SIGNAL according to my data, which is "at the open of the next four hour candle post EMA4 and cross of EMA13", The "no brainer system", also works well on bar chart's, and most other vendor provided systems

Comments appreciated,

mattfx
  • #834
  • Jun 30, 2007 1:31pm Jun 30, 2007 1:31pm
So, it supports what I suggested in previous post. As soon as the exit signat appears, no need to exit within minutes. Better wait till end of candle or put tighten the trailing stop. The next 4H candle may be in our favour again. This applies to entry as well - no hurry to enter. Now the price is over 120 pips in our direction, as the exit signal is not a valid signal.

Quoting MegaPips
In my opinion, as we are trading on a 4H chart, no need to exit as soon as we see the exit signal within minutes- not that hurry. If you see previous events and this trade as well, after the signal (cross)appeared, now the price is up again by several considerable pips. So, I think exit can be made in the 4 hour period or so. Please advise me if I am wrong.
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  • #835
  • Jul 4, 2007 9:21am Jul 4, 2007 9:21am
I know this is a dumb question, but I don't understand the entry. How do you know to buy or sell on the entry indication? Thanks to anyone who can help a slow member understand.
  • #836
  • Jul 4, 2007 9:54am Jul 4, 2007 9:54am
Quoting gunnyhud
I know this is a dumb question, but I don't understand the entry. How do you know to buy or sell on the entry indication? Thanks to anyone who can help a slow member understand.
Post number 1 tells you everything you need to know about the basic concept. As a newbie, you should start there.

T4K
  • #837
  • Jul 4, 2007 10:10am Jul 4, 2007 10:10am
Quoting tim4kaye
Post number 1 tells you everything you need to know about the basic concept. As a newbie, you should start there.

T4K
I appreciate you taking the time to reply, but I've read post #1 and understand the concept except for how do you know whether your entry is a buy or sell? Thanks again
  • #838
  • Jul 4, 2007 10:31am Jul 4, 2007 10:31am
Quoting gunnyhud
I appreciate you taking the time to reply, but I've read post #1 and understand the concept except for how do you know whether your entry is a buy or sell? Thanks again
Hi,

From post #1

"..Look at 4 hours chart
Entry:
When the EMA4 first cross the EMA50 follow by EMA13 cross the EMA50, with a new open candle, place your entry with a stop loss of 50pips.
Exit :
When EMA4 reverse and cross the EMA13 on the next open candle."

..to be completely clear:

If EMAs cross upwards (as per post #1) then BUY.
If EMAs cross downwards (as per post #1) then SELL.
  • #839
  • Jul 4, 2007 10:34am Jul 4, 2007 10:34am
Quoting ChowClown
Hi,

From post #1

"..Look at 4 hours chart
Entry:
When the EMA4 first cross the EMA50 follow by EMA13 cross the EMA50, with a new open candle, place your entry with a stop loss of 50pips.
Exit :
When EMA4 reverse and cross the EMA13 on the next open candle."

..to be completely clear:

If EMAs cross upwards (as per post #1) then BUY.
If EMAs cross downwards (as per post #1) then SELL.
Thanks, the slow one understands now.
  • #840
  • Jul 8, 2007 6:29pm Jul 8, 2007 6:29pm
Dear all traders,

Someone actually wrote an EA for my other system on USD/JPY strategy.
You guys can check it out if you want at http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=16242

Anyway so anyone tried to forward test this swing trade setup for other pairs on demo yet?
Looks like there was a good trade of USD/JPY with this swing.
Please do post your results if you have done so on other pairs here.

Thanks.
VyNNeR
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