Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles
- #4,861
- Edited Feb 18, 2024 8:16am Feb 17, 2024 11:34am | Edited Feb 18, 2024 8:16am
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
- #4,862
- Feb 17, 2024 12:37pm Feb 17, 2024 12:37pm
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,880 Posts
I'm chilling in the hotel room while my wife assaults ULTA store, that's a min 2 hr. recess for me.
- #4,864
- Feb 17, 2024 12:56pm Feb 17, 2024 12:56pm
- Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Trader | 4,260 Posts
{quote} Rocky, I strongly recommend Sephora store, our wifes deserve the BEST! Recess may last up to 4 hours.
So she leaves at 9 this morning and will not be seen again till 6pm when its time for dinner and drinks. I get to have a leisurely breakfast, do my shopping have a nice deli lunch and relax at the hotel.
- #4,867
- Feb 18, 2024 11:59am Feb 18, 2024 11:59am
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
{quote} Hi Vidvad, would this also been a trade that you would take based on your rules? {image}
Why?
That blue shaded area begins at 8:30 AM Eastern, which is when a lot of Red News comes out. At that moment on Friday, core PPI data was released, and from the entry signal to the first little consolidation, both of which I marked on the chart below, only 3 seconds had elapsed. This is why it is so very important for people to spend at least a few days observing how these renko heikin ashi candles form before trying to trade it, sim or live. There are going to be a lot of great looking moves in hindsight that would have been straight up impossible to have traded in real time.
But yes, if that set up showed itself any other time of the day, I'd have taken that short.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
{quote} Yes, that was a set up but not one I could have taken, nor would I have taken it if I could have. Why? That blue shaded area begins at 8:30 AM Eastern, which is when a lot of Red News comes out. At that moment on Friday, core PPI data was released, and from the entry signal to the first little consolidation, both of which I marked on the chart below, only 3 seconds had elapsed. This is why it is so very important for people to spend at least a few days observing how these renko heikin ashi candles form before trying to trade it, sim or live....
- #4,869
- Feb 18, 2024 7:18pm Feb 18, 2024 7:18pm
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
{quote} Makes sense, thanks for the explanation. These where 3 trades that i entered I think last thursday. And every time that I didn't enter when I should have entered, price moved.
This chart was from much later in the US session than I typically trade. I try to be done by noon New York time.
Using your chart, your entries seem to be late, you stop losses too close, you're gong to breakeven too soon, and you are not using context to your advantage, i.e. you are shorting into swing low levels and a flat 34 ema after an uptrend. You have to wait at least until price breaks some prior support OR the 34 ema turns down sharply, OR both, imo.
Here is my 5 renko chart and I circled the area you were trading. 5 renko 34 ema showed steady uptrend, similar support levels.
I think you need to
1) slow it down by using a larger brick size. Right now I really feel for those of us who need a bit more price confirmation before hitting the enter button that the 5 brick is the es SWEET SPOT.
2) add the bar status indicator from ninza.co (it is free) to help you learn how these candles form so you can get in when you should (you need to get in earliar)
3) make sure you aren't getting in late because you missed the proper entry and you are FOMO'ing into your trades.
4) be willing to start with a -20 tick stop and move it to -13 once price is +13, and take a fixed 20 to 25 tick profit, and only move to breakeven when price action and context give you an indication that price might reverse against you. For example price gets close to or even breaks above the previous day's high and then quickly sells down a few red candles. Maybe then go to breakeven.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
- #4,870
- Feb 18, 2024 9:09pm Feb 18, 2024 9:09pm
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
- #4,871
- Feb 18, 2024 9:25pm Feb 18, 2024 9:25pm
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
- #4,872
- Feb 18, 2024 9:48pm Feb 18, 2024 9:48pm
- Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Trader | 4,260 Posts
{quote} Makes sense, thanks for the explanation. These where 3 trades that i entered I think last thursday. And every time that I didn't enter when I should have entered, price moved.
Second listen to Vidvad, he's better a explaining me than I am.
.Had an incredible Chinese dinner tonight, Can't get that in my part of Mexico.
{quote} First I would say to you, if you are going to trade this system the prime times to do it are 8:30-10:30 est plus 1-2 est(after lunch). Is that 100% no but the very large majority of my trades are then( I'm referring to indexes). Trade the prime times . Second listen to Vidvad, he's better a explaining me than I am.
- #4,876
- Edited 6:53pm Feb 19, 2024 9:48am | Edited 6:53pm
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
Hi Vidvad....thanks for all the additions you add to Rocky method such as the addition of 34ema to avoid some poor entries. I see in the diagram you posted on Feb 18, that you were showing ADX like Rocky uses and how it is aligned with winning trades. I like how you have it with bars. Previously you shared you had difficulty incorporating the ADX into your trading strategy in a way that worked for you. Since you posted that image, I am wondering if you have had a change of heart on working with ADX? Thanks
The series of charts I posted last night were just meant to inspire people to take a fresh and different look at their charts. One chart has the 8 ema tunnel with 34ema. Another only shows the 8 ema tunnel. Another only the 34 ema. When I was looking at the chart with only the 34 ema, I thought it would be intersting to see how that would work with the ADX. At least for that one day, it worked quite nicely as an entry confirmation.
I am not opposed to any indicator. I believe that a trader should use the whatever tool or tools helps him or her succeed. Many though try to use the tools rocky uses and yet they don't even know what those indicators are ... indicating. A few days ago someone asked rocky why he went short while the ADX was still rising, not realizing that the ADX is a trend strength indicator, and therefore it will ALWAYS be rising at time of entry, whether short entry or long entry.
And we should also remember that the renko bars are themselves an indicator. Then we are applying the heikin ashi formula to those renko bars, so we are already trading an indicator of an indicator. Too many more indicators really muddy the waters and for most of us make trading decsions difficult. They increase uncertainty rather than increase certainty about what we should do and when.
I still think ADX, being a more complex indicator, is not the best choice for most of us who are less experienced with its construction and its use as rocky is. But it is a great indicator in capable hands. Given how it is to be used as part of rocky's method, I think it best to set it as bars, and also to set it to print on bar close rather than each tick.
That chart I posted yesterday was Friday's session. Not every session will be as good for the ADX. Here is Thursday's session:
But, it does generally keep you on the right side of the market, so losses should be smaller than wins.
Anyone who wants to implement the ADX as part of their strategy should, in my opinion, set the indicator to display as BARS rather than the LINE as rocky uses it. Then do a visual backtest by placing a vertical line at the ADX signals and not look at price. When I do this exercise, I first go along and strike a vertical where the ADX either crosses the 25 level, or pulls back and then increases again from above the 25 level, as per rocky's instructions. After I do all the signals for a day, I go back and strike the matching line in the price pane.
Here is 2/14:
Here is 2/13 with just the ADX signals marked:
And here is the same day, 2/13, with the lines added to the price pane:
If I were to want to add the ADX to my decision making tree, then I would do this same exercise for at least the past 20 days and really study the charts to see what my rules would be.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
- #4,878
- Edited 6:46pm Feb 19, 2024 12:17pm | Edited 6:46pm
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
Hi Vidvad. Thanks for taking the time for your detailed explanation
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
- #4,879
- Feb 19, 2024 6:27pm Feb 19, 2024 6:27pm
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Grateful for the Roulette Epiphany | 1,916 Posts
Interesting. The dots are the 34 ema. 8 ema low below 34 ema and then next candle ADX > 25. Easy to see when zoomed in as you can see.
Might be something to it, this ADX thing.
I still 100% do not like it when plotted as a line. Bars are a definite improvement to my eyes.
Might be something to it, this ADX thing.
I still 100% do not like it when plotted as a line. Bars are a definite improvement to my eyes.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
