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Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

  • #4,841
  • Feb 16, 2024 8:41am Feb 16, 2024 8:41am
This will be my last trade of the week if I can hit my +25 tick profit target. I just discovered that Ninjatrader lets you add your avatar to your chart background lol

If ES trades down to 5033, I'll be done until next Tuesday (Monday is a bank holiday and I don't trade those days).

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #4,842
  • Feb 16, 2024 9:01am Feb 16, 2024 9:01am
Quoting rockypoint
{quote} Buy- Candle closes above 8 ema tunnel and tunnel is turning up. adx greater than 25 and turning up(if adx is at 40 for example and going down, not a valid signal) Macd signal lines have crossed up. The rest is discretion where to set stops, where to exit, have profit target or not, and especially evaluate PA. I would suggest you demo trade some 3 hour windows of 1hour before market open to 2 hours after the open. Take every valid entry signal. See what happens. From there see if you find any reasons why trades were not winners.
Hey Rocky I have been reviewing a couple of your trades that you take and I have discovered that on some trades you ignore the ADX confirmation could you elaborate why?
  • #4,843
  • Feb 16, 2024 9:01am Feb 16, 2024 9:01am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} I've come to the opposite conclusion. I've not found volume to be a reliable intraday indicator at all other than on the ES I often see that a volume spike on an M5 candle WITH a reversal often indicates that the swing direction has changed. On your chart, why did you not mark the circled area as "yellow bars confirming low relative volume meaning downtrend is losing momentum"? I'm not knocking you and if it works for you that's great. But volume analysis is a rabbit hole I'd hate to see newbs going down if they're trying to learn rocky's...
because you have to look at volume in context of support and resistance, and liquidity. The yellow bars that came previously was clear continuation signal to me. This was too much to add to the post however. If you’re curious how the entirety of my system works you can PM me. If you’re not using volume idk how you could be confident about your entries. Seems like guessing to me

here are my results from last two days…
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  • #4,844
  • Feb 16, 2024 9:43am Feb 16, 2024 9:43am
Quoting JVT4
{quote} Hey Rocky I have been reviewing a couple of your trades that you take and I have discovered that on some trades you ignore the ADX confirmation could you elaborate why?
Would you point out where I ignored ADX confirmation, I don't think I did.
  • #4,845
  • Feb 16, 2024 9:48am Feb 16, 2024 9:48am
Had a decent short day. 3 trades. But I'm in a hurry(Wife is giving me the look). She's up early and we are leaving for a shopping trip to Tucson.
Be back on Tuesday.
  • #4,846
  • Feb 16, 2024 9:50am Feb 16, 2024 9:50am
Quoting rockypoint
ES is just a mess so far today picked off 2 small wins, 1 decent win and a small loss. Horrible PA. {image}
In the last trade, the ADX was going up but the market was still bearish did you enter simply because of the PA and volatility? or because it was still technically below the line?
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  • #4,847
  • Feb 16, 2024 10:01am Feb 16, 2024 10:01am
Quoting JVT4
{quote} In the last trade, the ADX was going up but the market was still bearish did you enter simply because of the PA and volatility? or because it was still technically below the line? {image}
ADX measures strength of current trend. A rising ADX with falling price indicates that the downtrend is strengthening. rocky entered exactly as the ADX would have indicated he should: short a strengthening down trend.

ADX tracks trend strength, not price direction.

ADX: The Trend Strength Indicator (investopedia.com)
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #4,848
  • Feb 16, 2024 10:10am Feb 16, 2024 10:10am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} ADX measures strength of current trend. A rising ADX with falling price indicates that the downtrend is strengthening. rocky entered exactly as the ADX would have indicated he should: short a strengthening down trend. ADX tracks trend strength, not price direction. ADX: The Trend Strength Indicator (investopedia.com)
Thank you this was definitely good information to know...
  • #4,849
  • Feb 16, 2024 11:01am Feb 16, 2024 11:01am
Quoting rockypoint
{quote} Buy- Candle closes above 8 ema tunnel and tunnel is turning up. adx greater than 25 and turning up(if adx is at 40 for example and going down, not a valid signal) Macd signal lines have crossed up. The rest is discretion where to set stops, where to exit, have profit target or not, and especially evaluate PA. I would suggest you demo trade some 3 hour windows of 1hour before market open to 2 hours after the open. Take every valid entry signal. See what happens. From there see if you find any reasons why trades were not winners.
Hi Rocky,
Thank you very much for your response and recommendations!
Last night I was busy reading " Trading for a living " book and went to sleep late, so I missed my alarm this morning , so I started trading after 9:30 EST.
Below see screen shot of my DEMO account - 84 pips. Circled shows a mess, because I think, I lost my focus... May be because of I did not have my morning coffee or did not sleep enough, ..my dog wanted attention..? This is something I can work on and fix it.
I also missed a few good trades!!! Which I'm not worry much because there will be always more trades.
...Last night I was reading the book trying to find an answer for 'how not to afraid open trades", as fear to lose money is my only enemy. I do understand it's unavoidable!!! I do not know if I'm the only one who experience this feeling. Could you share your experience or recommendations how do I coop with fear, what I do about it?
One more question, do you use pending order when you open your trade or Market Buy/Sell?
Much appreciated.
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  • #4,850
  • Feb 16, 2024 2:08pm Feb 16, 2024 2:08pm
Quoting tanyam
{quote} Hi Rocky, Thank you very much for your response and recommendations! Last night I was busy reading " Trading for a living " book and went to sleep late, so I missed my alarm this morning , so I started trading after 9:30 EST. Below see screen shot of my DEMO account - 84 pips. Circled shows a mess, because I think, I lost my focus... May be because of I did not have my morning coffee or did not sleep enough, ..my dog wanted attention..? This is something I can work on and fix it. I also missed a few good trades!!! Which I'm not worry much...
Got to be honest your chart is kind of a mess. I see you have the tunnel plus 3 other ema's(which I'm not sure what you are doing with them). Having too much on your chart can make you indecisive. Right now I don't think you have thought this through. Those extra ema's why are they on the chart and how do they effect your system rules? As far as the circled areas, ADX is below 25 you shouldn't be trading.
The extra ema's you really just seem not pay attention to.
  • #4,851
  • Feb 16, 2024 2:11pm Feb 16, 2024 2:11pm
I'm chilling in the hotel room while my wife assaults ULTA store, that's a min 2 hr. recess for me.
  • #4,852
  • Feb 16, 2024 4:32pm Feb 16, 2024 4:32pm
When it comes to entries and exits, I don't guess. There's never panic, everything logically aligns.
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  • #4,853
  • Feb 16, 2024 4:38pm Feb 16, 2024 4:38pm
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Just my two cents
  • #4,854
  • Feb 16, 2024 6:33pm Feb 16, 2024 6:33pm
Quoting tanyam
{quote}Last night I was reading the book trying to find an answer for 'how not to afraid open trades", as fear to lose money is my only enemy... how do I cope with fear, what I do about it?
Quoting rockypoint
{quote} Got to be honest your chart is kind of a mess. I see you have the tunnel plus 3 other ema's(which I'm not sure what you are doing with them). Having too much on your chart can make you indecisive. Right now I don't think you have thought this through. Those extra ema's why are they on the chart and how do they effect your system rules? As far as the circled areas, ADX is below 25 you shouldn't be trading. The extra ema's you really just seem not pay attention to.
Quoting MachineLearn
When it comes to entries and exits, I don't guess. There's never panic, everything logically aligns.
rocky hit the nail on the head as to the likely source of the problem and machinelearn points to the way out: tanyam, you are letting your fear of losing tie you in knots. You have too much going on on your chart and when you put that much on your brain you will find yourself never sure what to do. You are trying so hard to figure out how not to lose that you are all but assuring that that is exactly what will happen!

I've posted this same template here and in my own threads many times. This is the exact set of indicators that led to my breakthrough with the rocky method:

8 ema tunnel + 34 ema (dotted line) and swing indicator (it is call "swing" and it is built in to Ninjatrader so you already have it. I put the rules on that I followed and pretty much still follow today whether I am using the 8 ema tunnel +34 ema or if I am using the 4-9-18 ema's.

Here is what it looks like, and again, the rules are written as clearly as I can make them.
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May I make a suggestion?

If so, I'd suggest that this weekend you set your chart up just like I have this one here. Go over the last few weeks and do some visual back testing.

Then, this coming week, do what FF member too slow calls a "10 trade challenge." This is similar to Mark Douglas's 20 trade challenge from Trading in the Zone.

Take 10 trades. I'd suggest you use a SIM account but that is up to you.

Commit yourself to following these rules for the next 10 trades.

After 10 trades, do an honest assessment. But do not add or change any indicators until you do 10 trades according to these rules. Use SIM. Enter each signal without fear or hesitation. After all, it is SIM. You aren't trying to make money. You aren't trying to avoid losses. You are simply trying to follow the rules and teach your brain to follow the rules.

Do this and it can change your life. Or don't do it and keep feeding your indicator addiction which is simply creating analysis paralysis.

After that 10 trades, then if you feel you want to add the ADX or the MACD or whatever, then add one thing, and one thing only, and do another 10 trades. Or, if after the first 10 trades you feel comfortable with the rules and the template, then go live, trade the MES, and commit to 10 more trades.

But stop playing with indicators. The main element of rocky's method is that the combination of renko with heikin ashi applied cuts out a TON of noise and makes trends much more easy to see. Everything else - the ADX, the MACD, the WIlliams %R, the 200 SMA, the 34 ema, etc. is just the bullshit we do to ourselves to give us an added visual cue to actually get off our butts and out of our heads and just pull the trigger lol.

Make your chart simpler and easier, not more cluttered and complicated. Simple makes the rules clear. Simple makes the signals easy to see.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #4,855
  • Feb 16, 2024 6:39pm Feb 16, 2024 6:39pm
Quoting tanyam
{quote} Circled shows a mess, because I think, I lost my focus...
And if you look at the chart I posted just above, tanyam, you'll see that had you used the 34 ema as I do, you'd have never been short there and you would have just waited for a long signal. The long signals in there led to a very nice profit indeed!
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #4,856
  • Edited 7:28pm Feb 16, 2024 7:13pm | Edited 7:28pm
Quoting MachineLearn
When it comes to entries and exits, I don't guess. There's never panic, everything logically aligns. {image}
You are relying on volume to trade a CFD? Are you trolling or what?
  • #4,857
  • Feb 16, 2024 9:18pm Feb 16, 2024 9:18pm
Quoting rockypoint
{quote} Got to be honest your chart is kind of a mess. I see you have the tunnel plus 3 other ema's(which I'm not sure what you are doing with them). Having too much on your chart can make you indecisive. Right now I don't think you have thought this through. Those extra ema's why are they on the chart and how do they effect your system rules? As far as the circled areas, ADX is below 25 you shouldn't be trading. The extra ema's you really just seem not pay attention to.
Thank you for review and feedback on my screen shot, Rocky
I think you have a point: Having many indicators on my chart makes me indecisive.
Cheers,
  • #4,858
  • Edited 10:05pm Feb 16, 2024 9:23pm | Edited 10:05pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} {quote} {quote} rocky hit the nail on the head as to the likely source of the problem and machinelearn points to the way out: tanyam, you are letting your fear of losing tie you in knots. You have too much going on on your chart and when you put that much on your brain you will find yourself never sure what to do. You are trying so hard to figure out how not to lose that you are all but assuring that that is exactly what will happen! I've posted this same template here and in my own threads many times. This is the exact set of indicators...
Hi Vidvad, Much appreciated you spent your time to review and provide very valuable comments on my chart / trades.
...I guess I have home work to do this weekend. Let me follow your recommendations. I will provide update.
forgot to ask: what approach / strategy you recommend to follow for taking SL and TP ?
Cheers
  • #4,859
  • Edited 11:33am Feb 17, 2024 8:19am | Edited 11:33am
Quoting tanyam
{quote} what approach / strategy you recommend to follow for taking SL and TP ? Cheers
Everyone is different. rocky lets his run until price stops and a doji closes.

I take a fixed profit based on the M5 ATR, which usually gives me a TP of 20 to 25 ticks. However, I will also target swing highs or swing lows, yesterday's high and low, last week's high or low, and the globex open as possible targets. That means sometimes my TP is larger than average, and other times it is smaller.

If you are going to do the exercise as I suggested, then like Mark Douglas suggests, I'd reccomend you use a fixed SL and TP. I have Ninjatrader enter a bracket order when I enter a position with a 20 tick stop loss and a 25 tick take profit. Once two renko candles close below my entry candle if I'm short, or above my entry of I'm long, I then move the stop to -13 ticks. I think if you look at the pic I posted here of my trade yesterday you will see my TP and SL in the pic. I think this would be a good strategy to get you started for the ten-trade exercise if you are going to do it.

But here's the thing, these are all fluid and flexible figures and could change completely next week depending upon what the market does. Does the market go into a trading range were the ES moves less than 15 points a day? My take profit could shrink to +8 ticks. Does a real bear mood takeover and the ES starts moving 50 to 100 points a day? My TP could be +40 ticks and my SL -31 ticks. SO you have to find your own way and get a feel for what you are comfortable with. I'll say it again: If you try to trade like rocky instead of figuring out what works for tanyam you're going to struggle.

And a final reminder to you or anyone trying to learn this method. This chart below shows the fundamental basis of the rocky method:

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The renko heikin ashi + 8ema tunnel + swing indicator is the heart and soul of the rocky method. Anything else that you or I or rocky or any other fellow FF trader chooses to add to it is meant to help you implement the framework. For rocky, that is ADX and MACD. For me, that is the additional of the 34 ema OR I use a 4-9-18 ema combo without the 8 ema tunnel which yields an almost identical signal & trade result to the 34 ema + the 8 ema tunnel.

With all honesty, the other indicators, in my humble opinion, are mere crutches. The renko heikin ashi candles with the 8 ema tunnel is really enough to trade properly and profitably. It really presents price action brilliantly. I myself do still struggle with the renko part of it from time to time and I still use time based charts, for example, when I trade crude oil. But the longer I stick with the rocky method on the stock index futures, the better I get. I can foresee a time when the only chart and indicators I need are exactly as pictured above in this post: Just the price candles (renko with HA applied), the 8 ema tunnel, and the swing indicator.

Here is the same chart with the entries as I see them marked:
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Even at a 1:1 risk:reward there are 2 losses to 7 winners (there are more than 7 winning entries, but I some of the entries would have occurred while still in a previous signal, so I am counting those as one for this example). Therefore, 2 losses at -20 ticks each = -40 ticks, and 7 winners at +20 ticks each = +140 ticks, so +100 ticks net of losses. And I see no reason that anyone would really need any additional indicators to agree with those admittedly hindsight entries and get a similar profit/loss.

tanyam, study your charts this weekend, but clean them up. Study a bare-bones rocky chart such as I posted here for at least a portion of your visual back test study. From time to time me and couple of friends will "trade" together in discord. One comment I have often gotten from them is how clean my charts look.

Make your charts as clean and as simple as you can make them. More is NOT better.

Always remember this: Price isn't doing anything that you need an additional indicator to see. Your indicators react to price. Price does not react to your indicators. Everything you need to trade the rocky method profitably is already on the chart without you needing to add 27 more indicators.

Good luck and please keep posting your journey here!
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #4,860
  • Feb 17, 2024 11:10am Feb 17, 2024 11:10am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} {quote} {quote} rocky hit the nail on the head as to the likely source of the problem and machinelearn points to the way out: tanyam, you are letting your fear of losing tie you in knots. You have too much going on on your chart and when you put that much on your brain you will find yourself never sure what to do. You are trying so hard to figure out how not to lose that you are all but assuring that that is exactly what will happen! I've posted this same template here and in my own threads many times. This is the exact set of indicators...

I like this chart also. I think I will adapt it to my style and do a short replay with it today. 20 trades and see how I can make it work. Cool Good Post!!
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