Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

The original system is a very good system too.

A part of me still prefers time-based bars to renko. In fact, I will often look to an M1, M5, or M15 chart depending upon the instrument so I can check to see where price "really" is.

I also like the original PSAR and %R system. In fact, I still use it as one of my main strategies, and I miss the discussions in this group concerning that system. Maybe in the future, when one changes a system hat has a substantial following, one should merely start a new thread.

This was exactly what I would have taken as I was planning to take the first crossover of 25 ADX, but had to leave 30 minutes before the actual move happened.Before this trade, I took a loss of 20 ticks on MNQ. I wanted to adjust my SL loss when I saw the bullish candle, but price moved so fast up, that I couldn't get out on BE when the the bullish candles formed in the opposite direction. After this loss, I realised the market was moving sideways, which made me wait for a breakout. I often get rekt in sideway moving PA like today, as I see it too late. In the past I would keep changing directions, before realising the PA is flat.

Here is how you can know what works without being able to make it work consistently yourself: iman's argument in both of those videos is that the key element of any trading system is discretion. Specifically, he is arguing that one must learn when NOT to trade your system. Learning this is a matter of focusing like a laser beam on your chosen method and avoiding the tendency to go hopping from system to system. One must commit to the time it will take to learning how to read price action through the lens or framework of your chosen method. What iman is sharing is an insight into how a human being learns to trade a system so that one eventually can use that system to become a consistently profitable trader. Is it the insight accurate? I believe it is and I'll try to explain how it is I think he is correct.

Take, for example, the dozens of FF members have posted about trading either the original rocky method or the current renko rocky method, and very often you will see them post one or two times over the span of a few days to a few weeks and then they disappear. If you click on their username you'll find that they didn't leave FF. What they did was leave rocky's thread and hop off to another system thread at FF. Often times in a matter of months you will see that they have subscribed and then unsubscribed to multiple system threads. And here is why they do it:

They see a system that appeals to them, or speaks to them, or otherwise looks like it is a fit for them. But then, rather than first trying to learn the system, and spend time watching live charts to see how price action behaves when framed by that system, they immediately try to trade the system. They may be trading live money or sim, but it doesn't matter. They try to trade it and inevitably and without fail they will lose more often than they win, and when they lose, they will lose more money than when they win. Within three or four of these losing trades, the FF member determines that the system sucks. They don't blame their losses on their own lack of experience, observation, and practice with the method. They blame the method itself! And so, if the method is wrong, then why stick around and spend any more time with it, right? I wouldn't, would you? Of course not!

And so the system hopping cycle to which nearly every one of us has experienced or maybe even still is going through begins or continues for them.

And this is the value of the video I re-posted today: Every system will fail if you do not learn how to recognize its A+ set ups from the set ups that only look like set ups but really are noise rather than true signals.

Iman has found his system. He is not abandoning it simply because he is not yet earning $2,000/day trading it. He knows that to achieve consistent profitability he needs to stay with his system and continually observe and practice.

rocky too makes this point about the key role of discretion and he has made this point consistently since the start of this thread. If you were to back and read this thread you'd see that I did not agree with rocky on this point. I insisted that I could come up with a set of rules, indicators, etc. that would remove discretion from the formula. I was wrong, rocky was right. I found that I can reduce discretion. I cannot, however, eliminate discretion. If I could eliminate it, then I would be able to code the system and set it on autopilot and I'd be rich without ever having to look at another chart: I could just let my Ninjatrader strategy trade for me.

But that won't work. There is no way to code for the times where the system seems to indicate a trade should be taken but the totality of conditions are such that it is not an A+ set up. And forget about coding it so that the system will take a solid trade when doing so is in conflict with the indicators you are using to define the system! And this isn't far-fetched as BOTH happened on this very day on the very chart I've been sharing: First, a system signal appeared where discretion would advise against taking it because there was only about 3 ticks of profit between the entry and resistance, and then a solid signal occurred where the ema's were not angled properly, yet the price action and risk reward made it a solid buy! So, prgamming my method, rather than making me rich, the algo would fail and my account would be blown. THAT is iman's central theme of the videos to which you object: How to do you do that? Well, that is where practice and experience come in.

Just as I noted and rocky also stated, the first part of today did not offer any system trades on ES or NQ. There was a time when I probably would have taken at least 1 losing short trade on ES and 1 losing long trade on ES before I'd have hit the winner. I also would have likely cut the profits on the winner short and finished the day at or near breakeven. I now have enough experience with the rocky method that I can often avoid losing trades because my experience now allows me to recognize when conditions are not right for a tradable price movement.

This does not mean I never have losing trades. It does mean that I am able to eliminate some of those trades which will almost certainly fail because they are not really solid system set ups. I am still focused on learning and keeping to the main elements of rocky's method because I know that the longer I stick with it and practice it, the better I will become. My first post here in rocky's thread was almost two years ago and I'm still here and I'm learning and doing the work and getting better every week. So when you said I seemed to take it personal, I do, because I do know what has to be done to become consistently profitable with ANY method. And if you don't do THAT (i.e. practice, focus, stick to one method) then iman is right: Every strategy fails. His guide to what does work is simply sticking with a strategy and practicing it long enough to learn to read price action through the lens of your strategy so that you can learn when NOT to take trades using your strategy.

Finally, here is an example from today:



I do not know if the second entry will reach its target or not. My experience doesn't let me know which A+ set ups are going to be profitable and which ones are going to be a small loss or breakeven. BUT, I do know that taking the first signal was a high odds for a loss. The explanations are written on the chart.

In June of 2022 when I first started to learn the rocky renko method, I'd have taken that 1st trade and I would have unnecessarily lost 8 to 12 ticks . The entry on the second signal was approximately 5062 and I would have a take profit on at least part of the position at 66 for +16 ticks. Time will tell if it gets there.

[quote=rockypoint;14752400]Big fat nothing today incredibly flat market. Recovery day for me anyway. Party weekend 2 days of celebrating my 70th Birthday

Congratulations on your birthday

"In the past I would keep changing directions, before realizing the PA is flat."

Brother, seeing the flat PA and disengaging from the market until it clears is a huge leap in your skillset! Congrats!

Using the 4-9-18 ema's I like this 1st cross short because it coincided with a break of support. This could end up being a 2B test of the swing low and buyers step it, but unless and until that happens, this would be a short and I would be trailing a stop and targewting the pink line below at 5048.50, which was Friday's high.

That was a nice short signal and price was drawn to its previous day's high like a moth to a flame.

rare day
both side set up

4 H CHART
big money when trending

4H
Sell

black vertical line was midnight, yellow vertical line is current candle. When CPI comes out we'll be able to see how fast the market movement is in reaction to CPI.

From the black vertical to the yellow vertical is 8.5 hours of price action. Everything to the right of the yellow vertical is the first 3 minutes after the CPI news release.

Very busy morning 6 trades closed in less than 60 mins. and 1 more open. Not my favorite way of trading. But you trade what the market offers.

Closed trade, going to watch for awhile. PA changing from jumpy to messy. I'll wait a bit and see what happens. Time to play with the cat.

Today is 5 renko day, imo, rocky. Slows it down just enough for my eyes, at least. 8 renko would have worked for me, but a little too slow. 5 renko was the sweet spot for me. 4 renko does give too choppy an appearance for me today.

8:30 CPI, then 8:32 self-imposed trade embargo after Red News. The blue arrows were all possiblle trades for me, down arrows being short and up arrows being long. I didn't trade them all.

This would have been a long for me at 80.25 had I still been looking to make a day's pay. I'd set a take profit at 85.00 due to looking left at the earlier swing high.

nasdaq sell set up
trade closed with profits

I'd have exited somewhere between +2 ticks and -4 ticks on this one when that breakout candle was reversed. Most likely would have been a break even.

I'd be looking for a short if the emas cross down, or a long if it does what I have been calling the "ready, set, go," i.e. pullback set up. Looks like a big double top bear flag. I'd expect a short to be most likely.