Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is sideways. Generally, market operation is in a bullish retracement of a long-term bearish swing. The technical structure is bearish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame is sideways. Price action is making a retest of the 61.8 Fib retracement of a long-term bearish swing. The dominant technical structure is bearish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

GBPUSD price action on the H4 time frame is making a retest of the 61.8 Fib retracement of a long-term bearish swing. Recent technical patterns favour southward market engineering to an area of value, such as an intra-day market imbalance, but we cannot discount a brief northward move first.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

XAUUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is experiencing a decline in bearish momentum as it tackles the 2017.77/2000.78 horizontal support zone (green).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

XAUUSD price action on the daily time turned sideways as it tackles the 2017.77/2000.78 horizontal support zone (green) seen on the weekly time frame. The technical impulse is slightly more bearish than bullish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Although XAUUSD price action on the H4 time frame is presently sideways, the technical impulse favours bears more than bulls. Besides, recent market engineering favours a southward liquidity sweep.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

USDJPY market operation on the weekly time frame went sideways last week. However, the technical structure is bullish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

USDJPY price action on the daily time frame has turned sideways. However, both the dominant technical structure and the preceding technical impulse are bullish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

USDJPY price action on the H4 time frame is presently sideways. This represents a decline in northward momentum under a dominant bullish technical structure. Technically, we can expect further bullish drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD market operation on the weekly time frame retains a bearish outlook. However, there is decline in momentum as market operation tackles the 1.08500 horizontal support area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

EURUSD price action on the daily time frame turned sideways as it tackles the 1.08500 horizontal support area. But both the dominant technical structure and the preceding technical impulse are bearish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

EURUSD price action on the H4 time frame grinds southward in a falling wedge (magenta). As the dominant technical structure is bearish, a southward drive would be more feasible than a northward push.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation on the weekly time frame continues its sideway mode within the 61.8/50 fib retracement zone of a recent bearish swing. This is after a northward retracement of a longer-term bearish swing that began in late February 2022.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame is consolidating within the 1.27600/1.26100 horizontal channel (red), an area which aligns with the 61.8/50 fib retracement zone of a recent bearish swing. A bearish breakdown of the channel would target an intra-day area of value.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

GBPUSD price action on the H4 time frame is consolidating within the 1.27600/1.26100 horizontal channel (red), an area which aligns with the 61.8/50 fib retracement zone of a recent bearish swing. Presently, price action is at the upper part of the channel but technicals favour bears more than bulls.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market operation dipped into the 1989.77/1956.85 zone (green) in December 2023 before surging northwards to print an all-time high, leaving a long tail within the zone and a long upper shadow – technically an indecision candlestick. In January, XAUUSD market operation also printed an indecision candlestick on the monthly time frame. These two consecutive printing of indecision candlesticks shows a decline in directional momentum, with the 2061.07 area being the current horizontal resistance on the monthly time frame. The 1989.77/1956.85 zone (green) being the prevailing horizontal support zone on the monthly time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

XAUUSD market operation has been consolidating on the weekly time frame for weeks. Last week, it printed a bullish candlestick with a long shadow – which technically favours bears. Nevertheless, we may see a northward corrective move in the early part of this week before a bearish drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

XAUUSD price action is at the 2039.19 level and presently sideways on the daily time frame. However, the recent technical pattern could incentivize a northward liquidity grab before a southward drive. The 2017.74/2002.33 area (sandybrown) is the immediate horizontal support on the daily time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Summary Opinion on XAUUSD

I personally like swing trading XAUUSD market southwards on a medium-term basis because of positive swap. But the present scenario is tricky. There is need to await directional clarity. Besides, rather than jumping into the market, there is need to see a northward liquidity sweep first (i.e., a buy-to-sell scenario on at least an intra-day time frame, such as the H4 time frame). This would mean waiting for a northward pullback, e.g., into an intra-day area of trade imbalance or supply within a Fibonacci premium area (61.8/78.6). This would enhance the feasibility of a clear sell trading opportunity.

Just my opinion.

KP

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The 152.00 level remains an attractive target for bullish drive in the USDJPY market. On the monthly time frame, the level has not been revisited since November 2023. Technically, the 149.00/152.00 zone (purple) would be of interest to medium-term swing traders. Meanwhile, in the context of a bullish technical structure, USDJPY market operation printed a bullish candlestick in January that surged to the 149.00 area before retracing below it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

The doji-like candlesticks printed by USDJPY market operation on the weekly time frame in the last two weeks favour bulls, particularly as the technical structure is bullish and the preceding technical impulse is bullish. Further bullish drive would target an intra-day area of value within the 149.00/152.00 horizontal resistance zone (purple).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

USDJPY price action maintains a bullish mode on the daily time frame. Presently, it is below the 149.00/152.00 horizontal resistance zone (purple), seen on the monthly time frame. But, further northward drive would target the 150.600/151.400 daily supply zone (red). Under the prevailing technical condition, any southward charge would be corrective, giving way to a more feasible northward drive.




I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Summary Opinion on USDJPY

Although USDJPY price action grinds slowly northwards, the technical structure is bullish. Nevertheless, we may still see a slowdown in directional momentum as price action retests the 149.00 horizontal resistance area, which is the lower part of the larger 149.00/152.00 horizontal resistance zone on the monthly time frame. But, a resumption of directional momentum would incentivize a bullish charge that could target the 150.600/151.400 daily supply zone or an intra-day area of value.

Just my opinion

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD market operation is in a bearish technical structure on the monthly time frame. In the last six months it has been consolidating in the 38.2/50 fib retracement zone of the long-term bearish swing that began in June 2021.The candlestick printed in January is bearish and closed below the open of the bullish candlestick printed in December 2023. Technically, a bearish follow-through is more favoured than a bullish charge. Nevertheless, what market operation does within the 1.1000/1.07300 horizontal channel (purple) on the lower time frame should be watched as its bearish breakdown would incentivize a bearish drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the weekly time frame, a bearish mode is in operation, and the 1.04000/1.25000 horizontal support zone (green) could be a long-term target of a bearish charge. But on a short-term basis, we should be aware of the 1.0600/1.05000 zone (sandybrown), which is the immediate horizontal support and contains the 38.2 Fib area of the long-term bearish swing seen on the monthly time frame, as it would be a natural first target of a southward drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Presently EURUSD price action on the daily time frame is sideways, but the minor technical structure is bearish, which aligns with the dominant technical structure. Nevertheless, as the location of price action is near the lower boundary of the 1.1000/1.07300 horizontal channel (purple), it is advisable to await a shift in technical impulse after a northward correction – i.e., await a buy-to-sell manipulation to an intra-day area of value (e.g., on the H4/H1 tf) before looking for a sell trading opportunity.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Summary Opinion on EURUSD

The swing trading implication would be to trade in the southward direction. But waiting first for a northward pullback to an intra-day area of value (e.g., an area of market imbalance or supply on the H4 tf) is the path to a more feasible sell trade. The 1.0600/1.05000 zone (sandybrown), which contains the 38.2 Fib area of the long-term bearish swing on the monthly time frame, would be a natural first target.

Just my opinion.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market operation has been consolidating in the 1.27600/1.26100 horizontal channel (red) in the last two months. On the monthly time frame, the January candlestick print was doji-like as opposed to the bullish print of December 2023. However, the December2023 bullish print was relatively small, and the technical structure is bearish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Although GBPUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is in a technical correction of a bearish swing that began in late February 2022, there has been a decline in bullish momentum for the past ten weeks. The 1.27600/1.26100 horizontal channel (red) has acted as a strong resistance to further bullish drive. The channel lies in the 61.8/78.6 fib retracement zone of the dominant bearish swing seen on the monthly time frame. Technically, a bearish breakdown of the zone would incentivize a southward drive. Such a bearish charge would initially target the 1.23000/1.22000 horizontal support zone (sandybrown).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

The technical impulse of GBPUSD price action favours bears more than bulls. However, price action is at the lower part of the 1.27600/1.26100 horizontal channel (red), seen on the monthly time frame, which has not been breached southward since December 5, 2022. So, it would be advisable for any swing trader to await a northward pullback to the upper part of the channel before looking for a sell trading opportunity at an intra-day area of value.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Summary Opinion on GBPUSD

The dominant GBPUSD technical structure is bearish, but we may see a bullish pullback to an area of value. This would favour a sell swing trade. But waiting first for a northward market engineering to an intra-day area of value, e.g., an H4 time frame area of market imbalance or a demand zone that aligns with Fibonacci premium area (61.8/78.6 on H4 tf) would offer a feasible trade rather than premature trade entry.

Just my opinion.

KP

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

XAUUSD market operation went sideways after last week’s bearish print that followed the bullish print of two weeks ago. Presently, market operation on the weekly time frame is at the 2023.78 area, but the 2004.85 area (green) has held as horizontal support in the last six weeks.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

XAUUSD price action on the daily time frame is sideways. However, the technical impulse favours bears more than bulls, and we may see further southward move – perhaps to retest the 2004.85 area (green) which has held as horizontal support in the last six weeks. A significant breakdown of the area on a daily closing basis would expose further southward areas of value.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Although XAUUSD price action on the H4 time frame is sideways, recent technical patterns appeared to be market manipulation towards a southward drive of price action. Although we cannot rule out a northward liquidity grab, any bullish price action would not be sustainable and would give way to a southward rotation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Summary Opinion on XAUUSD:

XAUUSD price action is sideways at the 2023.78 area, but recent intra-day technical patterns favour bears more than bulls. In the circumstance, any bullish price action would soon give way to a southward drive. A significant breakdown of the 2004.85 area on a daily closing basis – an area which has held as horizontal support for several weeks – would expose further southward areas of value.

Just my opinion. Trade safe.
KP

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Although there was limited bullish follow-up of market operation last week to the bullish pin bar printed two weeks ago, USDJPY technical structure on the weekly time frame is bullish. Presently, USDJPY market operation on the weekly time frame is retesting the 149.00 area, which is the lower boundary of the 149.00/152.00 horizontal resistance zone (purple) on the monthly time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

USDJPY price action went sideways on the daily time frame as it retested the 149.00 area. Both the dominant technical structure and the technical impulse favour bulls more than bears. Therefore, any southward drive would be short lived.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

USDJPY price action on the H4 time frame is presently sideways. Although the technical structure is bullish, we cannot preclude a southward liquidity grab before a northward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Summary Opinion on USDJPY:

USDJPY market operation is retesting the 149.00 area, which is the lower boundary of the 149.00/152.00 horizontal resistance zone on the monthly time frame. Although the technical structure is bullish, as presently there is weakness in bullish momentum, we cannot preclude a southward liquidity grab before a northward turnaround.

Just my opinion. Trade safe.
KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Although the EURUSD market operation on the weekly time frame went sideways last week, the preceding technical impulse is bearish. Besides, the dominant technical structure is bearish. However, market operation is at the lower part of the 1.10780/1.07300 horizontal channel (purple) which contains the 50-fib retracement area of the operating bearish swing on the monthly time frame. Thus, we may not see much southward momentum until a significant breakdown of the channel.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Although EURUSD price action on the daily time frame has been in a northward corrective mode for a few days, the momentum has weakened. Both the technical impulse and technical structure are bearish. Technically, any northward price action would be short lived. Therefore, a southward directional trading would be more sustainable than a northward one.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

The technical impulse of EURUD price action on the H4 time frame is bearish although, presently, price action is in a bullish corrective mode.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Summary Opinion on EURUSD

The dominant technical structure of EURUSD is bearish. Although there could be a northward market engineering, it would be short lived. Technically, any bullish momentum would be for short-term liquidity grab. In my opinion, a southward directional trading would be more sustainable than a northward one. Technically, except you are a scalper, it is preferable to await a bullish weakness and look for a sell trading opportunity at an intra-day area of value.

Just my opinion. Trade safe.
KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market operation is sideways on the weekly time frame. It is within the 1.27600/1.26100 horizontal channel (red), which is within the 78.6/61.8 fib retracement zone of the dominant bearish swing. There had been northward retracement of the dominant bearish swing to near the 88.6 Fib area in early July 2023. Presently, GBPUSD market operation is within the 61.8/50 Fib zone of the prevailing, but minor, bearish swing that began in mid-July 2023. Technically, bears are more favoured than bulls.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

GBPUSD price action went sideways after a northward pullback into the lower part of the 1.27600/1.26100 horizontal channel (red), which is within the 78.6/61.8 fib retracement zone of the dominant bearish swing. Although we cannot rule out further northward drive, the technical structure is bearish. In the circumstance, technically, a northward market engineering would be for liquidity grab at an area of value before a southward rotation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

GBPUSD price action on the H4 time frame briefly broke down the 1.27600/1.26100 horizontal channel (red) on February 5 before retracing into its lower part, where it continued sideways. Recent technical pattern favouurs a short-term northward liquidity grab at an area of value before a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP