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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,361
  • Jun 23, 2007 5:11pm Jun 23, 2007 5:11pm
Hi Ira,

Thanks, yes I am going to have to start from the beginning, i did, then I stopped and then got lost... a little lazy as well

Well you can't learn everything overnight or in a couple of hours, what you put in is what you get!

Regards,
Guess

[quote=ira;1474589]
Quoting guess121
Hi,

Someone has written this, and I am not too sure of the author of this, can anyone explain in terms of chart, I am able to follow it and then get a little confused with it?

I take these are just some simple rules to follow in terms of trending?

Thanks in advance,
Guess

Hi Guess, I have made that document, it's a summary of the market rhythm, which Phillip so kindly teaches us on this thread. These are not rules, it's more like guidelines to how the market moves. It's a part of his strategy and should not be treated separetly. You should read the whole thread from the beginning to understand it, and there will be planty of charts and explanations of Phillip and others on this point. You will also find many other very, very, useful information.
  • #5,362
  • Jun 23, 2007 5:40pm Jun 23, 2007 5:40pm
Quoting ammar2000a70
Dear phillip and all

I was read most of posts and carefully phillip posts ,, I collect all the pdf , doc., indicators and zip files attached up to page 300 .. I wish it will help some traders

Many thanks for u mr.phillp .. this strategy become my no.1 methode to be used for a live trading and forget the others..

Best wishes
ammar

Note: zip files will be attached soon

goodluck

http://rapidshare.com/files/38889869/indicators.rar.html

http://rapidshare.com/files/38890665/Doc.rar.html

http://rapidshare.com/files/38893522/pdf.rar.html

Thanks 2 U my friend
  • #5,363
  • Jun 24, 2007 5:03am Jun 24, 2007 5:03am
Quoting ammar2000a70
Dear phillip and all

I was read most of posts and carefully phillip posts ,, I collect all the pdf , doc., indicators and zip files attached up to page 300 .. I wish it will help some traders

Many thanks for u mr.phillp .. this strategy become my no.1 methode to be used for a live trading and forget the others..

Best wishes
ammar

Note: zip files will be attached soon

goodluck

http://rapidshare.com/files/38889869/indicators.rar.html

http://rapidshare.com/files/38890665/Doc.rar.html

http://rapidshare.com/files/38893522/pdf.rar.html

hi
This is all zip files .. best wishes for all

ammar

http://rapidshare.com/files/39031209/zip.rar.html
  • #5,364
  • Jun 24, 2007 5:05am Jun 24, 2007 5:05am
Quoting ammar2000a70
Dear phillip and all

Best wishes
ammar

Note: zip files will be attached soon

goodluck

http://rapidshare.com/files/38889869/indicators.rar.html

http://rapidshare.com/files/38890665/Doc.rar.html

http://rapidshare.com/files/38893522/pdf.rar.html

Thank you ammar
  • #5,365
  • Jun 24, 2007 10:47am Jun 24, 2007 10:47am
Quoting ammar2000a70
hi
This is all zip files .. best wishes for all

ammar

http://rapidshare.com/files/39031209/zip.rar.html
Hi ammar
sorry
if it is possible 4 u please upload it to http://www.mediafire.com/
I have problem with rapidshare
Thanks 2 u ammar
  • #5,366
  • Edited 12:51pm Jun 24, 2007 12:23pm | Edited 12:51pm
Forick, I attached a copy of my updated pivot point starting today, I would appreciate if you could kindly take a look at it and let me know if I have it right.

Thanks
Lynn
  • #5,367
  • Jun 24, 2007 2:22pm Jun 24, 2007 2:22pm
Here is the link to the Daily MACD Strategy chat.

http://www.skype.com/go/joinpublicch...wM2vWVFHeCPQs8
  • #5,368
  • Jun 24, 2007 4:59pm Jun 24, 2007 4:59pm
Evening all,

I have come to the conclusion that it is far better to only trade 1 pair as your chance's of hitting a long loosing run are far less. and I can devote myself to learning that pair inside out.

From my backtesting taking good setups on the eurusd I seem to be averaging about 100-150 pips a month, does this sound about right to you guys and girls or do i need to get back to reality?

Thanx
  • #5,369
  • Jun 24, 2007 5:00pm Jun 24, 2007 5:00pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Here is the link to the Daily MACD Strategy chat.

http://www.skype.com/go/joinpublicch...wM2vWVFHeCPQs8

I cant seem to get this link to send me to a sign up page for the chat.... also is this for the 4H system still?

thanx
  • #5,370
  • Jun 24, 2007 5:11pm Jun 24, 2007 5:11pm
DigitalD:

Averaging 100 to 150 a month is over 25 a week...Your pip value can be $0.01 to $100....If you can do that week after week you're doing what the majority of traders can't...being successful. I figured out the 21 alert as well....
  • #5,371
  • Jun 24, 2007 5:16pm Jun 24, 2007 5:16pm
Quoting Palmer
DigitalD:

Averaging 100 to 150 a month is over 25 a week...Your pip value can be $0.01 to $100....If you can do that week after week you're doing what the majority of traders can't...being successful. I figured out the 21 alert as well....

Thanks Palmer,

I see you have been doing this for a while now, how are you getting on with it results wise?
  • #5,372
  • Jun 24, 2007 6:27pm Jun 24, 2007 6:27pm
Quoting you here:

Quoting Digitaldean
Evening all,

I have come to the conclusion that it is far better to only trade 1 pair as your chance's of hitting a long loosing run are far less. and I can devote myself to learning that pair inside out.

From my backtesting taking good setups on the eurusd I seem to be averaging about 100-150 pips a month, does this sound about right to you guys and girls or do i need to get back to reality?

Thanx
And Phillip has said this many times as well. Focusing on one pair, two at the most is all you need. I've been paying attention to the EUR$ and $Yen about 99% of the time. If someone has a question about a probable trade or set-up on a different pair then I'll take a look and see what is going on. I still trade outside of Phillip's method but with the MACD strategy it's been at least 100 a month. The crucial part of it is, for me at least, is to let the trade run and exit 'properly' along the way. What I mean by that is, after a Rb or Rt when price hits the 8/21 area I automatically dump a handful of lots. I'll then shorten the stop on the remaining lots to preserve capital there as well. If I get stopped out too early I just wait for a re-entry along the way. I'm counting on a trend to develop (above or below the 89) I just wait for that to happen. I'm also looking for support and resistance tops and bottoms within just a few candles and enter on a break there too. Sort of another Tc signal; the two short aqua lines on the posted chart that acted as support. These are aggressive trades but when the market is on the run I try to get on. April was great, over 400 but that was a very strong trending 4hr chart to the upside, I had several re-entries along the way that compounded the trade.

I do have MT4 sound an audible alert about 5 minutes before the two 4 hour candles that close while I'm sleeping. It takes all of about 5 minutes or so to see what's going on so I'm not missing too much sleep. Only having two pairs up and running makes this quicker as well. I just wish the fonts on the chart axis and clock above the currency pairs window were larger that early in the morning. Note: I'm not married (I tried that for a few years but she wasn't too cool if you know what I mean) and have no kids so there isn't anyone to 'disturb' during those hours...

I have to admit that I jumped the gun on more than one occasion and paid for it but...I'm getting better at not doing that. Sometimes it's very hard not to pull the trigger. And there are occasions where I still get out too early but with positive pips. "You'll never go broke taking a profit." Forgot who said that but it's true.

Anyway, there's a LOT of eco news this week so I'm expecting to see a lot of volatility so this week may be a difficult one. I've been focusing more on the $Yen lately due the trend but things may be changing....
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  • #5,373
  • Jun 24, 2007 6:53pm Jun 24, 2007 6:53pm
Quoting Palmer
Quoting you here:

The crucial part of it is, for me at least, is to let the trade run and exit 'properly' along the way. What I mean by that is, after a Rb or Rt when price hits the 8/21 area I automatically dump a handful of lots.....

Palmer,

I have done a HUGE amount of backtesting on this 4H system, for example I tested every RT/RB with 4 or more bars all the way back to 2002 on eurusd and one thing i found is that If i close out 1/2 my position at 1-1 risk ratio and let the rest ride it makes a huge difference on the overall profits. I prefer to move to b/e after 20 pips and then remove 1/3 position at 2-1 raito then the rest at a profit target usually giving me an overall 3or 4-1

I can say that i found in my testing that nearly all the rt/rb that played out went 50 pips and most went over 60 for sure on the eurusd, so I use this statistic in my trading.

Cheers
  • #5,374
  • Jun 24, 2007 7:18pm Jun 24, 2007 7:18pm
Yup, I printed out the 4hr and 1hr charts as well and did the same thing...it's all right there....
  • #5,375
  • Jun 24, 2007 8:33pm Jun 24, 2007 8:33pm
elmer:

Looks like a good set-up to me. I still have 3 1/2 hours to go before the 4hr closes though, a lot can happen. Sitting at the 38 Fibo, 200, and 365 as well...
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  • #5,376
  • Edited 8:50pm Jun 24, 2007 8:35pm | Edited 8:50pm
Quoting elmer
Hello everybody,
how do you feel about the swissy.. it looks like nice roundbottom is forming, but I fight myself.. shall I take it?.. first its a countertrend, which is tricky,
it has also closed below the 89ma... is it going to bounce off it to the 21MA? that would be a R/R of 2 or
will it think it just rests on the 89 and wil continue to fall...

perhaps I will take my advice not to trade coutertrend --- this probably means it will give 40 pips up nicely :-)

Elmer

Elmer there is absolutely no signal at the moment for a countertrend trade in CHF.

If you look at the Ma's for 8 and 21, the CHF is following them nicely on the 1 hour, and is still way ahead on the 4 hour with lots of bearish strength on the MACD.

There hasnt been an indication on the MACD that there is a slowing - the only chance you got is the 365 MA on the 4 hour, which might act as support and could see a small rebound back to the 8 or 21 ma, which would then prob continue with the trend.

Remember your trying to look for high probability trades, and in this scenario - There is no way a counter trend trade would be a high probability trade.

If you want an entry position, wait for a move back to the 8 or 21 ma, and see the price action around these levels, if it moves off there, you can take a position in agreement with the trend (short) or if it moves above, and you have confirmation from MACD, you could then take counter trend.

Cheers,

Rusty
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  • #5,377
  • Jun 24, 2007 9:43pm Jun 24, 2007 9:43pm
Palmer, so you would expect it to bounce off?..

The green bar on mACD just turned red on my chart so I removed my hasty notice :-)

Its always so difficult to resist these countertrends... I can see the R/R so easily, unlike the trend continuation trades where setting the target is pretty difficult for me...

Rusty:

Thank you for being so instructive... I admit I sort of imagined that signal. I promised myself many times that I will not trade countertrend... I hope I can stand to these promises one day:-)


Elmer



Quoting Palmer
elmer:

Looks like a good set-up to me. I still have 3 1/2 hours to go before the 4hr closes though, a lot can happen. Sitting at the 38 Fibo, 200, and 365 as well...
  • #5,378
  • Jun 24, 2007 10:51pm Jun 24, 2007 10:51pm
hello everyone.
The swissy does look tempting. it crossed the 200 MA and has curently retraced back to it according to the rules.Since this rule has been fulfilled price can continue its down trend. Also like Phillip says that when price moves so aggressively in one direction so close to 8ma, a counter trend trade is high risk , not high probabilty. so price may bounce back quite a few pips back to 8MA, but i would not risk it and wait for trend continuation.
Elmer i agree with u that putting a TP is easier for Counter trend , than TC. thats why i am focusing on my trend lines to have a somewhat clear profit target area if a major MA is not near by.
Good luck !!!
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,379
  • Jun 24, 2007 11:22pm Jun 24, 2007 11:22pm
I tend to agree with you even though I have no idea how the countertrend move will evolve. But how about the trend continuation,.. shall we look for the TC signal on 1H chart, as on 4H there may be no signal on the MACD, if the price continues with its friday´s speed.


Also I am long in G/U since 945 .. well part of my position is still there. Do you think it will break the 2.0, or reverse here....?


Elmer


Quoting BIL2205
hello everyone.
The swissy does look tempting. it crossed the 200 MA and has curently retraced back to it according to the rules.Since this rule has been fulfilled price can continue its down trend. Also like Phillip says that when price moves so aggressively in one direction so close to 8ma, a counter trend trade is high risk , not high probabilty. so price may bounce back quite a few pips back to 8MA, but i would not risk it and wait for trend continuation.
Elmer i agree with u that putting a TP is easier for Counter trend , than TC. thats why i am focusing on my trend lines to have a somewhat clear profit target area if a major MA is not near by.
Good luck !!!
Nadia.
  • #5,380
  • Jun 25, 2007 3:19am Jun 25, 2007 3:19am
is anybody taking the EURUSD 4h MACD turn as a short signal or would you rather ignore this and buy because it's over the 200MA and support ~1,3436/7?

Do you use something like trendlines, support/resistance areas and/or Fibon. retracements at all? I found these traditional techiques of little use in FX compared to indicators like MACD.

Till
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