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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,341
  • Jun 22, 2007 9:43am Jun 22, 2007 9:43am
Quoting RemingtonTJ
would anybody short the EURUSD now that it ticks above the 200SMA??
Yes, I did. I shorted the E/U at 1.3466.
  • #5,342
  • Jun 22, 2007 9:46am Jun 22, 2007 9:46am
Quoting RemingtonTJ
would anybody short the EURUSD now that it ticks above the 200SMA??
Hi RemingtonTJ, I'm a neophyte but I'm inclined to stay away from eurusd since all the moving averages are converging together and it's just a big mess over there, and right now there are no macd signals to boot. So I'd wait for a clearer direction..
  • #5,343
  • Jun 22, 2007 10:35am Jun 22, 2007 10:35am
The usdcad I was talking about on the prev page...absolutely beautiful and in perfect sync with the market rhythm if I say so myself. Though i admit I entered a little early, not really according to the macd but due to S/R and the nice tail. Still entering upon macd confirmation would have still yielded solid profits. Will it go all the way down to the 89?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad_062207.jpg Size: 53 KB
  • #5,344
  • Jun 22, 2007 10:46am Jun 22, 2007 10:46am
EURUSD seems to work, although a potential turn would happen in no man'sland
no resistance, no Fibo, no MACD turn (not yet)
  • #5,345
  • Jun 22, 2007 11:35am Jun 22, 2007 11:35am
Quoting RemingtonTJ
EURUSD seems to work, although a potential turn would happen in no man'sland
no resistance, no Fibo, no MACD turn (not yet)
On the contrary, I am seeing the potential turn in the form of a Doji located directly on an upper trendline that is drawn from a daily chart, also the Doji is located on the 200 SMA on a 4 hr chart and also on the 61.8 Fib line (from 6/5 high of 1.3550 to 6/13 low of 1.3263) on a 4 hr.

Not to mention the fact that the price is currently hitting the 89 SMA on the Daily chart.

All we could ask for is a confirming candle after the Doji and a MACD signal for entry for next week.

Am I wrong???
  • #5,346
  • Jun 22, 2007 11:52am Jun 22, 2007 11:52am
to Niti.

template with MA's
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl ma's + macd.tpl   2 KB | 870 downloads
  • #5,347
  • Jun 22, 2007 2:58pm Jun 22, 2007 2:58pm
Dollaryen is closing the day with a shooting star. I have a feeling it is happening because of this. No need to have a crystall ball. Good luck.
  • #5,348
  • Jun 22, 2007 4:42pm Jun 22, 2007 4:42pm
Hi, Tam! I've read your old post and Ira's question, and IMHO and I believe according your vision UJ should go down to the nearest IB which is around 101. It looks that way to me, but it is so against common opinion, that I'm not sure about that. Everybody says it'll go up, so I'm lost here. But if it will go up, it definitely will go to 133.04. What do you think?
Btw did you post something about your IB/IT theory on this forum?
  • #5,349
  • Jun 22, 2007 5:04pm Jun 22, 2007 5:04pm
But if you draw the TL throw the bottoms, and we suppose the price will go down to this TL it would be around 110. This is I think the most possible scenario.
  • #5,350
  • Jun 22, 2007 5:54pm Jun 22, 2007 5:54pm
Would not short yet, though if you change time frames you can see a change occuring, though not greatly, stochs are not reversing as I would like to see - as with MACD reversal signal, I would wait for more confirmation - but if you are aggressive trader, then it might worth a few more pips.

(I might be taking a load of rubbish hear ), though there could be a possible tread break after short?!?

A good 40 pips on the short? What you think?

Quoting Forex4H
Yes, I did. I shorted the E/U at 1.3466.
  • #5,351
  • Jun 22, 2007 8:46pm Jun 22, 2007 8:46pm
I have a problem with my money management, if anybody can instruct me a bit, I would be literally in debts.

I practice the 4H strategy, I am moderately successfull with choosing the right signals - thats maybe 6 out of ten are won.

The problem is that I take partial profits, usually at the level of 25 pips. then I let the second part of my position evolve. Sometimes it earns a bit more, sometimes not and it ends B/E.

But if my trade goes ill and hits my stoploss, my whole position goes negative.

In this way, although I win majority of the positions I open, my account goes down.

Any suggestions?... I gues Im missing something obvious... I like the point of fixing some profit, but in fact , it turns against me...

thank you all.

Elmer
  • #5,352
  • Jun 22, 2007 10:31pm Jun 22, 2007 10:31pm
Quoting elmer
I have a problem with my money management, if anybody can instruct me a bit, I would be literally in debts.

I practice the 4H strategy, I am moderately successfull with choosing the right signals - thats maybe 6 out of ten are won.

The problem is that I take partial profits, usually at the level of 25 pips. then I let the second part of my position evolve. Sometimes it earns a bit more, sometimes not and it ends B/E.

But if my trade goes ill and hits my stoploss, my whole position goes negative.

In this way, although I win majority of the positions I open, my account goes down.

Any suggestions?... I gues Im missing something obvious... I like the point of fixing some profit, but in fact , it turns against me...

thank you all.

Elmer
What kind of stoploss are you using? On average how many pips are you risking per trade? If you have a risk reward ratio of no worse than 1:1 and your winning 6 of 10 plus taking partial profits than your account would be growing.

cope
  • #5,353
  • Jun 23, 2007 5:50am Jun 23, 2007 5:50am
Ok I didn't see the doji on the 4H, but a good signal. It is also testing the resistance area, wait for confirmation and down on the E/U for the at least 40 pips, I am not professional, just following Phil's guide

:o)

Happy Pipping!

Quoting guess121
Would not short yet, though if you change time frames you can see a change occuring, though not greatly, stochs are not reversing as I would like to see - as with MACD reversal signal, I would wait for more confirmation - but if you are aggressive trader, then it might worth a few more pips.

(I might be taking a load of rubbish hear ), though there could be a possible tread break after short?!?

A good 40 pips on the short? What you think?
  • #5,354
  • Jun 23, 2007 9:58am Jun 23, 2007 9:58am
Quoting Cope
What kind of stoploss are you using? On average how many pips are you risking per trade? If you have a risk reward ratio of no worse than 1:1 and your winning 6 of 10 plus taking partial profits than your account would be growing.

cope

I use normal fixed stop. Averagely 30 pips. But I get scared usually when there is profit of 25, so I take partial profit for about half of the position and move the stop at entry price. Obviously, I would need another 35 pips to close the second half at 60 pips profit.. that does not happen often.

I think part of my problem is that when taking trades on trend continuation, which are those with high succes probability I dont know where to put the profit target - often there is no MA, or resistance.

So what do you think?..

elmer
  • #5,355
  • Jun 23, 2007 10:10am Jun 23, 2007 10:10am
Dear phillip and all

I was read most of posts and carefully phillip posts ,, I collect all the pdf , doc., indicators and zip files attached up to page 300 .. I wish it will help some traders

Many thanks for u mr.phillp .. this strategy become my no.1 methode to be used for a live trading and forget the others..

Best wishes
ammar

Note: zip files will be attached soon

goodluck

http://rapidshare.com/files/38889869/indicators.rar.html

http://rapidshare.com/files/38890665/Doc.rar.html

http://rapidshare.com/files/38893522/pdf.rar.html
  • #5,356
  • Jun 23, 2007 10:15am Jun 23, 2007 10:15am
Quoting elmer
I use normal fixed stop. Averagely 30 pips. But I get scared usually when there is profit of 25, so I take partial profit for about half of the position and move the stop at entry price. Obviously, I would need another 35 pips to close the second half at 60 pips profit.. that does not happen often.

I think part of my problem is that when taking trades on trend continuation, which are those with high succes probability I dont know where to put the profit target - often there is no MA, or resistance.

So what do you think?..

elmer
Risk of 30 to make 25 is not terrible, but if you stay at 50-60 percent win/loss your not going to grow your account very fast, but you shouldn't be experiencing much draw down either. As far as TP levels are concerned, I would recommend having a very clear idea/trading plan before entering your trade. You should always be able to predetermine where your exit will be, whether it be a MA, upper or lower TL boundary, pivot point, previous support/resistance. Sometimes you may have to look at a larger time frame to find it, for example if your trading based off of 4hr but don't see a clear tp area, scan out to the daily and see where the price is in relation to the daily trend. If price begins to stall in an area prior to reaching your initial stop loss, that is where you may want to consider exiting a portion or all of your trade.

Everyone has there own style, and I'm certainly not an expert, but I can tell you based on my experience, if you don't have a well defined plan with stop loss and tp levels before you enter the trade your better off waiting for the next signal.

I hope you find this helpful.
  • #5,357
  • Jun 23, 2007 11:53am Jun 23, 2007 11:53am
Quoting alexfot
Hi, Tam! I've read your old post and Ira's question, and IMHO and I believe according your vision UJ should go down to the nearest IB which is around 101. It looks that way to me, but it is so against common opinion, that I'm not sure about that. Everybody says it'll go up, so I'm lost here. But if it will go up, it definitely will go to 133.04. What do you think?
Btw did you post something about your IB/IT theory on this forum?
Hi Alex, you can search all my posts on Phil's thread - I am sure you can collect quite a few examples and descriptions of inside patterns. I use them to define a potential support or resistance on 4HR or daily timeframes. The example of usd/jpy which I provided is based on the weekly and I really do not know what the error threshold is in drawing our subjective trendlines using this timeframe. I would still recommend to use daily and 4HR charts to confirm your trade plan - MACD thread provides a truckload of examples. I can not say whether the price will go up or down, all we can use are statistical probabilities of a certain price action. There is no use trying to predict the future price, just observe what it is doing within a particular session, how support becomes a resistance or vice versa. This is all you need. You may observe something which is not yet seen to other market participants and you can trade your setups - anything goes. The best way to be ahead of a dominant opinion or sentiment is never to be complacent with the market or never enter it unless you have your own reasons to trade. I know, I know all this sounds brilliant - but just only imagine that you are given 1 chance of a lifetime to use 1,000 dollars for building your equity, but you still do not know how all this complex machinery operates, would you buy spare cogs or belts which specifications you are not aware of, and you buy because all the others buy? Sounds strange for a business, doesn't it? Read and learn as much as you can - FF, MACD forum is a great place.

As far as usd/jpy is concerned I will watch it on Sunday with a bearish mood and I will wait for the market signal. If the price gaps at the open in any direction, I would recommend to stay away until you know how to trade gaps which is not part of MACD strategy. If you are in win situation, I am not sure you have to wait for 101 price level to protect your gains, just read Phil's manuals what needs to be done. Hope this is not all new and you will take direction from the market, not from others' opinions. Good luck.
  • #5,358
  • Jun 23, 2007 3:58pm Jun 23, 2007 3:58pm
Hi,

Someone has written this, and I am not too sure of the author of this, can anyone explain in terms of chart, I am able to follow it and then get a little confused with it?

I take these are just some simple rules to follow in terms of trending?

Thanks in advance,
Guess

T

R

E

N

D


In the beginning of a trend the price breaks through the 89MA, goes back to the 21MA, then goes forward in its path periodically coming back to the 8 or 21MA. If the price in trend comes only to the 8MA it means that the trend is very fast and we shouldn’t take any counter trend trades. Then when the trend comes to an end the price candle closes below/above the 21MA, goes back to the 21MA, and then goes all the way to the 89MA. Sometimes the price after closing below/above 21MA will not come back to it, but will go straight to the 89MA. Then the price may bounce of the 89MA and go forward to the 21MA and the trend may continue its way. Or the price can go through or bounce of the 89MA go back to the 21MA and come back to the 89MA.

R

A

N

G

E


When the trend breaks the price goes through the 89MA goes back to the 21MA and instead of moving away from 89MA goes back to it, then comes to the 21MA then back to the 89MA and so on. It means that the range period has started. In range the price zigzag between MA’s, usually 89 and 21MA. During this period we work in a channel. Before coming into a trend the price can go through or bounce from 89MA from 2 times to … But each time the price goes through the 89MA and goes back to the 21 we should keep in mind that the new trend can begin. Sooner or later it will happen.

T

R

E

N

D


And then when the new trend has started the price will go away from the 89MA coming back to the 8 and 21MA and proceed its way forward from 89MA, coming back to the 8 or 21MA from time to time, until the trend will come to the end (see the beginning). After the trend has been established there may be 200 and 365MA’s on its way and we should keep in mind that the price may bounce from them (to the 21MA for example) and go back to them.


  • #5,359
  • Edited 5:11pm Jun 23, 2007 4:42pm | Edited 5:11pm
[quote=guess121;1474580]Hi,

Someone has written this, and I am not too sure of the author of this, can anyone explain in terms of chart, I am able to follow it and then get a little confused with it?

I take these are just some simple rules to follow in terms of trending?

Thanks in advance,
Guess

Hi Guess, I have made that document, it's a summary of the market rhythm, which Phillip so kindly teaches us on this thread. These are not rules, it's more like guidelines to how the market moves. It's a part of his strategy and should not be treated separetly. You should read the whole thread from the beginning to understand it, and there will be planty of charts and explanations of Phillip and others on this point. You will also find many other very, very, useful information.

P.S. There is a summary of Phillip's strategy starting from page 289, and the lesson on market rhythm is number 4. There you'll find charts.
  • #5,360
  • Jun 23, 2007 5:04pm Jun 23, 2007 5:04pm
Quoting elmer
I have a problem with my money management, if anybody can instruct me a bit, I would be literally in debts.

I practice the 4H strategy, I am moderately successfull with choosing the right signals - thats maybe 6 out of ten are won.

The problem is that I take partial profits, usually at the level of 25 pips. then I let the second part of my position evolve. Sometimes it earns a bit more, sometimes not and it ends B/E.

But if my trade goes ill and hits my stoploss, my whole position goes negative.

In this way, although I win majority of the positions I open, my account goes down.

Any suggestions?... I gues Im missing something obvious... I like the point of fixing some profit, but in fact , it turns against me...

thank you all.

Elmer
I think Elmer you question is very good and I worry about that too.
Let me illustrate it with an example.
I open position and my SL is 25, my TP is 30. R:R=OK, I open it with 2 lots (or 0,2 - it's not important as we count in pips). Suppose the position goes in my favour so I close my 1 lot at +30 and the other put to b/e waiting for further move. But the price goes back so my second lot closes at b/e, or 5 - 10 pips profit. In total I have let's say +40.
What happens if my SL is hit - I get -50 loss on 2 lot.
Maybe I miss something too? I have read Cope's answer and I think his point was that we must have more profit thrades in average, I agree with this, but to my mind 50 -60% is not enough. Maybe there is something that I don't understand, please someone help. Thank you in advance!
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