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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,321
  • Jun 21, 2007 6:30pm Jun 21, 2007 6:30pm
DigitalD:

Those are the two that I pay the most attention to and trade as well. Annnnd, I don't know the answer. I can say that they are not as inversely related as the EURUSD and USDCHF but it's really hard to tell. I was trying to find a recent point of reference and I noticed around May 1st as a good start. Both pairs were at new highs and both fell back a little. But the EUR$ continued to fall while the Yen chugged upwards until it formed a channel while the EUR$ kept falling. Anyway they do seem to move opposite at the same time and in the same direction at the same time. Right now I've got the EUR$ at the top of a channel 'trying' to come back down and the Yen is at a good resistance point trying to break through and continue up. So this would be a case that they would move opposite...Ya know, I don't think I helped you out one but here...
  • #5,322
  • Jun 21, 2007 6:39pm Jun 21, 2007 6:39pm
Robertus:

This is where I have the 4hr EUR$, at the top of the price channel 'trying' to come down. The thing that is keeping me away is that price has been living at the 89 for a while and on the daily as well. You have to go to the weekly chart to see a trend with the 89 and it's up which makes this even more confusing. But, the weekly MACD has been heading down for a while. The only thing I've done with the EUR$ is scalp this week for a few and have been trading the the channel on the Yen from around xxx.65 to xxx.50. The EUR$ 'wants' to do something, I'm just not going to try to guess what it is if you know what I mean...
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  • #5,323
  • Jun 21, 2007 6:47pm Jun 21, 2007 6:47pm
Here's the 15min price channel on the USDJPY if anyone is interested. This has nothing to do with Phill's system so PM me with any questions but all I've been doing is buying the dips and selling the rallies. Price is trying to break through resistance, watching the 1hr for that so I may hold this position for a while...
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  • #5,324
  • Jun 21, 2007 7:28pm Jun 21, 2007 7:28pm
Anyone else have this (attached image) ? I took it, but the price hasnt dropped. Lagged behind a few hours, but hasnt increased either. Its GBP/USD. I'm fairly confident it'll drop... eventually ... but I'm glad I didnt grab it on the second bump


Or maybe I have no idea what I'm doing. :/
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  • #5,325
  • Jun 21, 2007 7:47pm Jun 21, 2007 7:47pm
eurph:

Is that a 4hr GBPUSD?
  • #5,326
  • Jun 21, 2007 7:51pm Jun 21, 2007 7:51pm
hello everyone. any thoughts on where GU and euro are headed .
Thanks,
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,327
  • Jun 21, 2007 7:54pm Jun 21, 2007 7:54pm
Quoting euphoricism
Anyone else have this (attached image) ? I took it, but the price hasnt dropped. Lagged behind a few hours, but hasnt increased either. Its GBP/USD. I'm fairly confident it'll drop... eventually ... but I'm glad I didnt grab it on the second bump


Or maybe I have no idea what I'm doing. :/
Euphoricism,

Let me start by saying that there are many here more qualified to answer your post, but I'm going to throw my two cents in for what it's worth. Hopefully following my explanation someone can verify your question and my answer, or simply tell me to zip it. Here it goes!

My take on the gbp/usd chart you posted and trade you entered it that it is a counter trend trade. That's not necessarily a bad thing as long as your reasoning ie. support/resistance, market rhythm, macd verifies it. However, the easier trades to spot and be profitable on, especially as you go through the learning process, are trend continuation patterns and trades. You may very well get a draw back to the 21 with the strong trend that the pair has gone through and then it will very likely turn and continue to rise. That being said, it does seem to be consolidating along some resistance where it stalled June 5-7th so you may be on to something.
  • #5,328
  • Jun 21, 2007 7:55pm Jun 21, 2007 7:55pm
I should have just posted the chart...

If it is, remember that it's a counter trend trade and the target area is the 8/21 ma's. Look at the last two MACD signals and take note of the price action. Price made it to the 8 and that was it. The last signal, price almost made it to the 21 so you should have exited some of your lots already. The last few hits to the 8 and this one to almost the 21 then back up, again, tells me that this is a strong uptrend. We all want to catch that big downturn in the MACD and sometimes we do. When my 21 area is hit after a Rb or a Rt and I exit x amount of lots I'll move the remaining lots to breakeven or lessen the length of the stop to protect the majority of profit. If price continues even after I get stopped out I'll wait for a Tc to get back in. I'm too chincy with pips in the bank and hate giving them back. Either way, that moving average between the 8 and 21 is a 14 exp ma...That's just a head's up for me with the price action...
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  • #5,329
  • Jun 21, 2007 7:56pm Jun 21, 2007 7:56pm
...what cope said...
  • #5,330
  • Jun 21, 2007 8:06pm Jun 21, 2007 8:06pm
You guys getting tired of me yet....

Here's the USDJPY 4 hr chart and things just got a little interesting...

There is finally a close above the 123.75 level. The 15 min channel that I was trading also lined up with a Tc signal on the 4hr...the green vertical line. If we get a few DAYS above the 123.75 level you have to go to the weekly chart to find the next top...about 150 pips away...Tomorrow being Friday is critical because everyone wants to put their money in the bank before the weekend so we'll see.....OK, I'm done.
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  • #5,331
  • Edited Jun 22, 2007 3:47am Jun 21, 2007 10:03pm | Edited Jun 22, 2007 3:47am
[/quote]Nice Z.....and who is trading in parachute pants...stuck in the 80/s? hmmmmm...(Ok...it is me...I still drive my first "new" car....an 87 MR2....I love it...)...

& I think Phillip may be a hybrid....Yoda & Obi....wise and feeling!!! (Phillip, hope you don't mind being grouped in w/pop icon figures!)

Have a good weekend[/quote]

Pips,
Thanks for the laughs from the decadent 80's (it really is a sweet Z) I have a few skinny ties to go with my '86 Benz.

My takeaway from one of your notes is around the dicipline to do nothing...trading with the sound of one hand clapping, perhaps. Right now, the EurUsd is building a lot of potential energy as the MA's converge, but we all seem to be struggling to DO SOMETHING even if it is wrong. This is a difficult thing to do!
I am spending my time on the 5 minute system (thanks Phillip!). It keeps me in the game with a sense of purpose.

Tom Hanks said it best in Castaway "I know what I have to do...breathe... because tomorrow is another day and I don't know what the tide will bring in"

Let's keep our collective level heads and wait for the next great signal.
Thank you for the continued support.
  • #5,332
  • Jun 21, 2007 10:10pm Jun 21, 2007 10:10pm
Hello folks, long time no see. Got a quick observation to make on usdcad (I know phillip rarely looks at this one). It looks as if the pair has a sort of nice rhythm going on now as shown on the graph below. A nice little channel, and a possible RT is forming. Thoughts on this?
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad_062107.jpg Size: 54 KB
  • #5,333
  • Jun 21, 2007 10:12pm Jun 21, 2007 10:12pm
I've been looking at the EU trying to figure out where it's going to go from its wee bit of consolidation, I'm not sure I've solved anything, but I thought I'd point out what I'm sure many of you have already seen. The current support for its consolidation area is the 6/12 low 6/20 H 38 fib and of course the 89 as resistance. Some Eur news out in about 5 hours maybe it will break once again.

Which way? No clue
  • #5,334
  • Jun 22, 2007 4:22am Jun 22, 2007 4:22am
Quoting weghio
Hello folks, long time no see. Got a quick observation to make on usdcad (I know phillip rarely looks at this one). It looks as if the pair has a sort of nice rhythm going on now as shown on the graph below. A nice little channel, and a possible RT is forming. Thoughts on this?
As a novice, I follow only the Loonie and Euro. I totally agree with your view. At 4 am EST there is a RT forming. 8ma has been hit. I am bullish on this pair and yesterday I took 125 pip profit after it began to neutralize. I have a limit order to buy back in just above the 21 MA as I see a TC in the near future and am playing with house money.
Best Wishes,
Rick
  • #5,335
  • Jun 22, 2007 5:53am Jun 22, 2007 5:53am
Quoting Cope
I've been looking at the EU trying to figure out where it's going to go from its wee bit of consolidation, I'm not sure I've solved anything, but I thought I'd point out what I'm sure many of you have already seen. The current support for its consolidation area is the 6/12 low 6/20 H 38 fib and of course the 89 as resistance. Some Eur news out in about 5 hours maybe it will break once again.

Which way? No clue
Hello, long time reader, first time writer here.

My opinion is that after that German IFO news last night it should give us a reversal off of the 200 SMA and upper trendline (~1.3450) next week and hopefully then we can short it.

That is my action plan. Any suggestions?

Also, any word on that Daily Skype meeting Phillip mentioned?
  • #5,336
  • Jun 22, 2007 5:58am Jun 22, 2007 5:58am
Quoting weghio
Hello folks, long time no see. Got a quick observation to make on usdcad (I know phillip rarely looks at this one). It looks as if the pair has a sort of nice rhythm going on now as shown on the graph below. A nice little channel, and a possible RT is forming. Thoughts on this?
Yes, I also took this trade short due to the RT and the great looking oscillations. Another perk is that going short is the same as the long term trend, so maybe it will continue its trend. Just watch for a reversal at that bottom trendline.

Good Luck
  • #5,337
  • Jun 22, 2007 7:18am Jun 22, 2007 7:18am
The parachute pants belong to Pips4uandme.....
  • #5,338
  • Edited 7:35am Jun 22, 2007 7:30am | Edited 7:35am
Good morning everyone , hope u guys made some pips today on cable and euro, i slept through the first signal. . all week woke up at 4 am est to see if something was devp. and the pairs decide to show some life on a friday. could have taken the second signal off of 1HR but thought cable has already trended up off of 8MA so much so it might be too late to enter. But no it kept going up. same with Euro. anyone else has a TC phobia. scared to enter that it has already made its move and its too late to enter. ( may be i should read my own tag line again).All comments welcome . good luck
NAdia.

P.S can anyone tell mee how to attatch charts to a post as a link so it does not take up valuable space on the thread. thanks.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,339
  • Jun 22, 2007 8:27am Jun 22, 2007 8:27am
Bil:

For posting a link, I think you have to have a web page to send it to or host it from. To actually add it to the post you need to click on you need to click on this little buggar:
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  • #5,340
  • Jun 22, 2007 8:52am Jun 22, 2007 8:52am
would anybody short the EURUSD now that it ticks above the 200SMA??
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