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The Swamp

  • #114,401
  • Jan 12, 2024 1:25am Jan 12, 2024 1:25am
trying a short at the 70s
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  • #114,402
  • Jan 12, 2024 1:53am Jan 12, 2024 1:53am
today
it seems that an hour close above 0984 is what the bulls need
  • #114,403
  • Jan 12, 2024 2:39am Jan 12, 2024 2:39am
Quoting FT.Trader
Just a reminder...MLK day on monday option expiration next week i had some good bond trades this week wti and eur kinda sideways good luck
Going by what Putin said. He likes a particular U.S. presidential candidate over another. Putin alias with Iran, and others. Unrest in the M.E. tends to raise energy prices. Higher energy prices are inflationary. Higher inflation hurts the candidate that Putin dislikes. With 11 months to go. I dont put anything past certain countries trying to pressure energy prices. They actually get paid to do it. Not to mention, somebody has Ukraine on their wish list. Its not rocket science. Spend a few million, and get 10 of billions. Its always about the money.
Inflation makes rate cuts less likely. The market has a bunch of cuts baked in 2024. 11 months is almost 1 year.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,404
  • Jan 12, 2024 3:07am Jan 12, 2024 3:07am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Going by what Putin said. He likes a particular U.S. presidential candidate over another. Putin alias with Iran, and others. Unrest in the M.E. tends to raise energy prices. Higher energy prices are inflationary. Higher inflation hurts the candidate that Putin dislikes. With 11 months to go. I dont put anything past certain countries trying to pressure energy prices. They actually get paid to do it. Not to mention, somebody has Ukraine on their wish list. Its not rocket science. Spend a few million, and get 10 of billions. Its always about...
Skeptical personally, but here is what may be priced in. 3 cuts at .75
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/fed-...mber-2023.html
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,405
  • Jan 12, 2024 4:46am Jan 12, 2024 4:46am
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,406
  • Edited 5:01am Jan 12, 2024 4:48am | Edited 5:01am
Quoting gatorinla
{image}
Still need the 12h close below 0894.. A day/week below 0930 should allow the retest of 0894.. A week average can still hit 0836
A conflict in the red sea should/could increase inflation. A rise in inflation reduces chance of rate cuts. A conflict may also strengthen the usd (flight to safety). Either of these may boost usd. When a situation is opposite of expectations. The move could be violent. Since the expectation was already priced in.
That loss of expectation can place the usd where it should of been w/o rate cut expectations.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,407
  • Jan 12, 2024 5:27am Jan 12, 2024 5:27am
heads up! news coming soon
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,408
  • Jan 12, 2024 5:34am Jan 12, 2024 5:34am
flat to a slight inflation drop. Pro rate cut side. Meaning rise. If it drops, thats opposite..
Just being back below 0930 may be bearish
Digesting
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,409
  • Jan 12, 2024 5:44am Jan 12, 2024 5:44am
30 min candle back to where the news was released.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,410
  • Jan 12, 2024 5:50am Jan 12, 2024 5:50am
lost ground since news release..
It looks like it will fall.. its safer below 0930
Those 200 ma are still in the bear path. So potential to bounce is there. Next week a day close below 074x may be enough to fall. Or the week after.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,411
  • Jan 12, 2024 5:59am Jan 12, 2024 5:59am
Time for tunes.
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,412
  • Jan 12, 2024 6:20am Jan 12, 2024 6:20am
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,413
  • Jan 12, 2024 7:03am Jan 12, 2024 7:03am
long eurusd, might add long for sp500
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  • #114,414
  • Jan 12, 2024 7:15am Jan 12, 2024 7:15am
Quoting Ferna
long eurusd, might add long for sp500
I do love my little SP trades .
  • #114,415
  • Jan 12, 2024 7:24am Jan 12, 2024 7:24am
Quoting supertubes
{quote} I do love my little SP trades .
all time high, let’s go to the moon!
party on wall street woohhooo
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  • #114,416
  • Jan 12, 2024 7:45am Jan 12, 2024 7:45am
Quoting supertubes
Dollar basket wants 10170....
I thought this little poke might of given 1015x on the E U but sadly not so still no entry for me long or short.

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  • #114,417
  • Jan 12, 2024 8:17am Jan 12, 2024 8:17am
https://www.theguardian.com/business...the%20Atlantic.
Ana Boata, the head of macroeconomic research at Allianz Trade, said the disruption could push inflation up by 0.7 percentage points in Europe and the US while sapping a similar amount from economic growth on both sides of the Atlantic.2 hours ago
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,418
  • Jan 12, 2024 8:22am Jan 12, 2024 8:22am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} all time high, let’s go to the moon! party on wall street woohhooo
Its red hot. How long will it be? Oil at 80. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/h...lobal-shipping
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #114,419
  • Jan 12, 2024 8:31am Jan 12, 2024 8:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its red hot. How long will it be? Oil at 80. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/h...lobal-shipping {image} {image}
Proably have too wait and see for Davos to start.

”The 2024 WEF, titled “Rebuilding Trust,” runs Jan. 14-19. Hanging over the event is the sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions and global trade concerns in the Middle East.”
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  • #114,420
  • Jan 12, 2024 8:35am Jan 12, 2024 8:35am
With the colder weather over this weekend. The unknown Red Sea events this weekend. EU bulls so far look lethargic. Anything can happen on this bullish side of those 200 + being above 0930 36 39. But it hasn't.
That Quarter POV at 0993 and 1041 may be having an effect.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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