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Pivot to the Moon

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 15, 2023 4:10am Dec 15, 2023 4:10am
Hi all that have found themselves here.

I've been backtesting a strategy heavily based on pivots and so far it is going a lot better than I could expect. This will be my platform to journal all positions taken on my live account and hopefully take it to the moon. Might be full of other random thoughts at any point - hope you don't mind.


Feel free to comment or speculate - join on my journey!
Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #2
  • Dec 15, 2023 4:17am Dec 15, 2023 4:17am
Symbol: EUR/JPY
Sentiment: Short
Price: 155.25

Trade #1 of this journey. My short signals are based on a series of crossovers within a day. Breaking of key pivot points reveals an intention to continue in a given direction.
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Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #3
  • Dec 15, 2023 5:24am Dec 15, 2023 5:24am
Symbol: CHF/EUR
Sentiment: Long
Price: 1.05278

Second trade, trying to get all my money in the market right now. Another trade against the EUR - I don't have any speculations, it is all price action.
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Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #4
  • Edited 6:16am Dec 15, 2023 5:28am | Edited 6:16am
Symbol: NZD/CHF
Sentiment: Long
Price: 0.53917

Easy setups - again on the CHF upside.
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Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #5
  • Dec 15, 2023 8:49am Dec 15, 2023 8:49am
Quoting BenWarburton
Symbol: NZD/CHF Sentiment: Long Price: 0.53917 Easy setups - again on the CHF upside. {image}
Took 1/3 profit at daily resistance 1. Still targetting 1.06 level. Rest of equity moved to zero risk.
Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #6
  • Dec 15, 2023 9:16am Dec 15, 2023 9:16am
Quoting BenWarburton
Symbol: EUR/JPY Sentiment: Short Price: 155.25 Trade #1 of this journey. My short signals are based on a series of crossovers within a day. Breaking of key pivot points reveals an intention to continue in a given direction. {image}
1/3 TP at the same daily resistance. Looking like a very profitable day 1
Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #7
  • Dec 15, 2023 9:46am Dec 15, 2023 9:46am
Took all profits. Not a reflection of my sentiment - I just couldn't be bothered to hold any positions over the weekend.

Weekly Change: +%1.68
Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #8
  • Dec 18, 2023 6:14am Dec 18, 2023 6:14am
Back again with some fun moves of the week. I don't try to predict where the market is going - I see where it is going and I follow it (please don't reverse on me). In this case, the trend is upward and the fibs approve.
Starting with:


Symbol: EUR/JPY
Sentiment: Long
Price: 155.576
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Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #9
  • Dec 20, 2023 2:06am Dec 20, 2023 2:06am
Quoting BenWarburton
Back again with some fun moves of the week. I don't try to predict where the market is going - I see where it is going and I follow it (please don't reverse on me). In this case, the trend is upward and the fibs approve. Starting with: Symbol: EUR/JPY Sentiment: Long Price: 155.576 {image}

Took profit at 158 flat. Good first trade.
Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #10
  • Dec 20, 2023 2:14am Dec 20, 2023 2:14am
I'm taking about 5 trades/day and will only post one or two a day - not becoming a free signal service. This one blew up faster than expected.

Symbol: EUR/GBP
Sentiment: Long
Price: 0.86282
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Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #11
  • Dec 30, 2023 6:52am Dec 30, 2023 6:52am
Interesting. Care to share the strategy rules and perhaps others can join you in forward testing this? Cheers
  • #12
  • Edited 9:56am Jan 10, 2024 2:49am | Edited 9:56am
Quoting benjamintoh8
Interesting. Care to share the strategy rules and perhaps others can join you in forward testing this? Cheers
Hey Benjamin!

It's a relatively simple strategy. Over 3 timeframes I check for an EMA and MACD cross in the same direction. Then I see where they relate to pivot points on each timeframe respectively. I plot them simply as such:
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Green represents Buy, Red is Sell and Orange is no signal. I place more weighting on the higher timeframes to determine the trend and never trade against it.

An example is a trade I have taken for GBPJPY:
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Daily and weekly sentiment is pointing upward and so I waited for the same signal on the h1 timeframe. I took one on the initial EMA cross and doubled down on the test of the daily pivot. I will continue to load positions as this trade will hit r1.

It is worth mentioning this doesn't work without correct risk management. Let me know if you have any other questions

Ben

Trade update:
I moved tp to R3. But will keep the trade alive as there looks to be a lot of momentum upward. The target is realistically 190.
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Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #13
  • Jan 11, 2024 2:08am Jan 11, 2024 2:08am
I took profit on the previous trade. Not convinced it will continue upward. If the price is to return to daily pivot, I will place another long.
Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #14
  • Jan 11, 2024 3:19am Jan 11, 2024 3:19am
Quoting BenWarburton
{quote} Hey Benjamin! It's a relatively simple strategy. Over 3 timeframes I check for an EMA and MACD cross in the same direction. Then I see where they relate to pivot points on each timeframe respectively. I plot them simply as such: {image} Green represents Buy, Red is Sell and Orange is no signal. I place more weighting on the higher timeframes to determine the trend and never trade against it. An example is a trade I have taken for GBPJPY: {image} Daily and weekly sentiment is pointing upward and so I waited for the same signal on the h1 timeframe....
Thank u very much for the detailed explanation. Have you managed to test this over a backtest? Would be keen to see the results haha. I will also attempt to forward test this myself. Regarding that table, what would qualify as a Green or Red or Orange on the Pivot column? THank u!
  • #15
  • Jan 11, 2024 5:01am Jan 11, 2024 5:01am
Quoting benjamintoh8
{quote} Thank u very much for the detailed explanation. Have you managed to test this over a backtest? Would be keen to see the results haha. I will also attempt to forward test this myself. Regarding that table, what would qualify as a Green or Red or Orange on the Pivot column? THank u!
I have found this hard to automate (let me know if you have any clue) and have done fairly good manual testing for all pairs. The pivots are more of an indication of support resistance. If it were to be green, it would show that the price has respected support and 'bounced' off it. Red being opposite. Orange is when it's unclear and possibly ineffectual.
Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #16
  • Jan 12, 2024 2:32am Jan 12, 2024 2:32am
do you look at only the centre pivot for entry or also R1 R2 or S1 S4 etc etc
  • #17
  • Jan 12, 2024 2:32am Jan 12, 2024 2:32am
This is how it's looking right now.
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I have further comments which I will keep to myself as I believe they reveal much more regarding the strategy. But as you can see - a LOT of waiting. The markets are generally trendy but I'm currently staying out (with this system) as things are starting to range a bit more than I'd like. This system is very much a trend FOLLOWER.

EURGBP looks like it should be a STRONG SELL but I'm staying out for now as the monthly chart is slowly squeezing through its range. Whichever way it goes, it will go quickly. So I am placing limit and stop orders in both directions outside the range to catch the move if I were to not be by the charts.
Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #18
  • Last Post: Jan 12, 2024 2:41am Jan 12, 2024 2:41am
Quoting benjamintoh8
do you look at only the centre pivot for entry or also R1 R2 or S1 S4 etc etc
I use all the pivots to help decide my entries. They are constantly respected and provide a good support/resistance to confirm my direction. It isn't an exact science (like most TA) but it is helpful.
Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
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